Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in 2024 is facing a perplexing situation with favorable policies failing to stimulate a significant recovery, as evidenced by a prolonged downward trend in housing prices and demand [1][3][11] Group 1: Policy Impact - Despite the implementation of favorable policies such as the lifting of purchase restrictions and reductions in mortgage rates below 4%, the market has not rebounded as expected, with average second-hand housing prices in 100 cities declining for 25 consecutive months to 14,870 yuan per square meter [1][3] - The number of cities experiencing month-on-month price declines has exceeded 90 for 12 consecutive months, indicating a persistent market downturn [1][3] Group 2: Market Conditions - The real estate market is experiencing severe oversupply, with the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development reporting 600 million existing homes, which could accommodate 6 billion people if each home housed 10 individuals [5] - 96% of households own at least one home, and 41.5% own two or more, highlighting a significant surplus in housing stock [5] Group 3: Consumer Behavior - There is a notable increase in residents' savings willingness, with new deposits reaching 8.56 trillion yuan in the first quarter of 2024, reflecting a cautious approach to financial commitments amid economic uncertainties [7] - The pessimistic outlook on future income growth has led consumers to avoid leveraging for home purchases, resulting in a continued decline in housing demand [7] Group 4: Supply of Affordable Housing - The acceleration of affordable housing supply is set to provide 6 million units over the next five years, averaging 1.2 million units annually, aimed at meeting the needs of low-income groups [9] - This increase in affordable housing is expected to divert demand from the commercial housing market, facilitating a process of de-speculation and de-bubbling in the real estate sector [9][11]