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宏观日报:中游开工弱复苏,上游价格回升-20260115
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-01-15 05:16
Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the given report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents a situation of a weak recovery in mid - stream production and a price increase in the upstream sector. It also details recent policies in the production and service industries and the performance of various industries at different levels of the industrial chain [1][2]. 3. Summary by Industry A. Production and Service Industry Policies - **Production Industry**: The Shanghai Municipal Commission of Economy and Informatization and other departments issued the "Model - Speed - Intelligence - Mobility Action Plan for the High - Level Autonomous Driving Leading Area in Shanghai". By 2027, high - level autonomous driving applications will achieve large - scale implementation, aiming to form an internationally competitive intelligent connected vehicle industry cluster [1]. - **Service Industry**: The Ministry of Finance and other three departments announced the continuation of the personal income tax policy to support residents in exchanging housing. From January 1, 2026, to December 31, 2027, taxpayers who sell their self - owned housing and repurchase a house within one year can get a tax refund on the personal income tax paid for selling the existing house [1]. B. Industry Chain Performance - **Upstream**: - **Chemical Industry**: The price of polyethylene has rebounded [2]. - **Agriculture**: The price of eggs has significantly rebounded [2]. - **Energy Industry**: International crude oil and natural gas prices have continued to decline [2]. - **Mid - stream**: - **Chemical Industry**: The PX开工率 is at a high level, while the PTA开工率 is at a low level [2]. - **Energy Industry**: The coal consumption of power plants has increased [2]. - **Downstream**: - **Real Estate**: The sales of commercial housing in second - and third - tier cities have rebounded [3]. - **Service Industry**: The number of domestic flights has increased [3]. C. Key Industry Price Indicators (as of January 14) - **Agriculture**: The spot price of corn is 2254.3 yuan/ton (up 0.25% year - on - year), eggs 7.3 yuan/kg (up 9.45% year - on - year), palm oil 8780.0 yuan/ton (up 2.09% year - on - year), cotton 15973.8 yuan/ton (down 0.13% year - on - year), and the average wholesale price of pork 18.1 yuan/kg (up 0.95% year - on - year) [33]. - **Non - ferrous Metals**: The spot price of copper is 104121.7 yuan/ton (up 0.53% year - on - year), zinc 24508.0 yuan/ton (up 0.92% year - on - year), aluminum 24673.3 yuan/ton (up 2.12% year - on - year), nickel 146716.7 yuan/ton (down 1.76% year - on - year), and another type of aluminum 17325.0 yuan/ton (down 0.43% year - on - year) [33]. - **Ferrous Metals**: The spot price of rebar is 3245.0 yuan/ton (up 0.10% year - on - year), iron ore 839.3 yuan/ton (up 0.59% year - on - year), wire rod 3497.5 yuan/ton (down 0.21% year - on - year), and glass 12.9 yuan/square meter (up 0.39% year - on - year) [33]. - **Non - metals**: The spot price of natural rubber is 15866.7 yuan/ton (up 0.11% year - on - year), and the China Plastics City Price Index is 765.5 (up 1.04% year - on - year) [33]. - **Energy**: The spot price of WTI crude oil is 60.9 dollars/barrel (up 6.65% year - on - year), Brent crude oil 65.5 dollars/barrel (up 7.86% year - on - year), liquefied natural gas 3568.0 yuan/ton (up 10.46% year - on - year), and coal 799.0 yuan/ton (up 0.38% year - on - year) [33]. - **Chemical Industry**: The spot price of PTA is 5108.6 yuan/ton (up 0.38% year - on - year), polyethylene 6773.3 yuan/ton (up 3.04% year - on - year), urea 1747.5 yuan/ton (up 1.01% year - on - year), and soda ash 1214.3 yuan/ton (unchanged year - on - year) [33]. - **Real Estate**: The national cement price index is 134.9 (down 0.51% year - on - year), the building materials composite index is 115.7 (up 0.11% year - on - year), and the national concrete price index is 90.4 (down 0.01% year - on - year) [33].