居民消费信心
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消费暖起来,才能生产跑起来、经济热起来丨大象评论
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-12-14 08:10
Core Viewpoint - The recent Central Economic Work Conference emphasizes the importance of boosting consumption and expanding domestic demand as a primary focus for economic work in the coming year, indicating that consumption is a key engine for economic growth in the context of a new development pattern [1][3]. Group 1: Factors Affecting Consumption - Current weak consumption is attributed to a complex interplay of factors leading to a "confidence crisis," with rising household savings rates and declining consumption tendencies reflecting a state of "consumption hesitation" rather than mere "consumption downgrade" [3]. - Concerns about potential layoffs, housing prices, and rising costs in education and healthcare contribute to consumer anxiety, complicating spending decisions [3]. Group 2: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - The conference proposed a comprehensive "consumption boost package" that includes increasing income, optimizing supply, removing barriers, and stabilizing consumer confidence to encourage spending [3][5]. - Multi-channel strategies to increase urban and rural residents' income are highlighted, focusing on stabilizing employment, improving wage growth mechanisms, and expanding social security coverage to alleviate concerns in healthcare and housing [5]. Group 3: Evolving Consumer Demands - Consumer demands are becoming increasingly diverse and unique, with younger generations and older adults seeking experiences that provide emotional value, health assurance, and cultural engagement [5]. - The rise of new consumption patterns, such as green, smart, and health-oriented consumption, necessitates improved market regulation and consumer protection mechanisms to enhance the overall shopping experience [7]. Group 4: Economic Implications - Boosting consumption is seen as a critical support for economic circulation and a strong driver for high-quality economic development, reflecting the warmth and specificity of consumer spending beyond mere data [7].
前北大教授姚洋和孟晓苏:为何房价还在下跌?凭什么不救三好生?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-08-06 12:41
Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is currently in a critical adjustment phase, showing a positive long-term trend due to various supportive policies, but experiencing short-term declines [1] Group 1: Market Trends - In July, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,585 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.77% and a year-on-year decrease of 7.32%, indicating an expanding downward trend [3] - Despite strong policy support, the market has shown signs of decline since June and July, raising questions about the effectiveness of these policies [3][5] Group 2: Expert Analysis - Experts like Yao Yang and Meng Xiaosu highlight that the real estate market's stabilization is challenging due to issues in policy execution, with many restrictive measures still in place [7] - Yao Yang emphasizes that the lack of consumer confidence stems from the struggles of even the best-performing real estate companies, which undermines public trust in purchasing homes [7] Group 3: Economic Factors - Meng Xiaosu points out that despite a high savings rate of 45% among Chinese residents, the perception of financial strain persists due to a significant loss in wealth from declining property values, estimated at 120 trillion yuan [9] - The disparity between savings and perceived financial security creates a psychological barrier for consumers, complicating the path to restoring confidence in the housing market [9]