巴西大豆出口检验
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豆粕:市场情绪平稳,盘面或震荡;豆一:现货稳定,盘面调整震荡
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2026-03-22 11:10
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the week from March 23 - 27, the prices of Dalian soybean meal and soybean futures are expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for new market information. For soybean meal, the US soybean market has declined due to the postponement of Trump's visit to China, and the progress of Brazil's soybean export inspection events should be monitored. The slight reduction in domestic soybean crushing is expected to support the spot price. For soybeans, there is currently no additional positive news, and after more than half a year of price increases, there is a need for adjustment and market sales, so the price is expected to adjust and fluctuate, waiting for new market information [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Price Trends - In the week from March 16 - 20, US soybean futures prices mainly declined. As of the week of March 20, the main US soybean 05 - contract had a weekly decline of 5.17%, and the main US soybean meal 05 - contract had a weekly increase of 1.8%. During the same period, domestic soybean meal and soybean futures prices also declined. The main soybean meal m2605 - contract had a weekly decline of 3.16%, and the main soybean a2605 - contract had a weekly decline of 3.28% [1]. 3.2 International Soybean Market Fundamentals - **US soybean net sales**: In the week of March 12, 2026, the weekly net sales of US soybeans in the current year (2025/26) were about 300,000 tons (about 460,000 tons in the previous week), and in the next market year (2026/27) were about 6,600 tons (9,500 tons in the previous week). The total was about 306,600 tons (about 470,000 tons in the previous week). The weekly net sales of US soybeans to China in the current crop year (2025/26) were about 80,000 tons (about 83,000 tons in the previous week), with cumulative sales of about 1.098 million tons [1]. - **Brazilian soybean import cost**: As of the week of March 20, the average CNF premium of Brazilian soybeans for May 2026 increased week - on - week, the average import cost decreased week - on - week, and the average crushing profit on the futures market increased week - on - week [1]. - **Brazilian soybean harvest progress**: As of the week of March 12, the harvest progress of Brazilian soybeans in 2025/26 was 61%, compared with 70% in the same period last year. The harvest speed is still the slowest since 2020/21, and some states still face delays [1]. - **South American soybean产区 weather forecast**: From March 21 to April 3, precipitation in the main soybean - producing areas of Brazil will be basically normal, with increased precipitation in Rio Grande do Sul and slightly less precipitation in Paraná and Mato Grosso do Sul. Temperatures in most main - producing areas will be higher. In the main soybean - producing areas of Argentina, there will be more precipitation on March 21 and less precipitation for the rest of the time, with temperatures first low and then high [1]. 3.3 Domestic Soybean Meal Spot Market - **Trading volume**: As of the week of March 20, the average daily trading volume of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills was about 190,000 tons, up from about 170,000 tons in the previous week [2][3]. - **Pick - up volume**: As of the week of March 20, the average daily pick - up volume of soybean meal in major oil mills was about 168,000 tons, down from about 177,000 tons in the previous week [3]. - **Basis**: As of the week of March 20, the average weekly basis of soybean meal (Zhangjiagang) was about 286 yuan/ton, compared with about 228 yuan/ton in the previous week and about 533 yuan/ton in the same period last year [3]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of March 13, the soybean meal inventory of major domestic oil mills was about 590,000 tons, with a week - on - week decline of about 18% and a year - on - year decline of about 5% [3]. - **Crushing volume**: As of the week of March 20, the weekly soybean crushing volume was about 1.99 million tons (1.97 million tons in the previous week and 1.41 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of about 55% (54% in the previous week and 40% in the same period last year). Next week (March 21 - 27), the soybean crushing volume of oil mills is expected to be about 1.94 million tons (1.2 million tons in the same period last year), with an operating rate of 53% (34% in the same period last year) [3]. 3.4 Domestic Soybean Spot Market - **Soybean price**: In the week from March 16 - 20, domestic soybean prices were stable with a slight upward trend. In some northeastern regions, the purchase price of clean soybeans was in the range of 4,740 - 4,840 yuan/ton, an increase of 60 yuan/ton from the previous week; in some inland regions, the purchase price was in the range of 5,160 - 5,340 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 - 80 yuan/ton from the previous week; in the sales areas, the selling price of northeastern edible soybeans was in the range of 5,020 - 5,240 yuan/ton, the same as the previous week [4]. - **Selling sentiment in the northeastern production area**: Due to the continuous decline in soybean futures prices, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has become more cautious. Some farmers are more active in selling their grains, while a small number of farmers are waiting and watching. Most trading entities are more willing to sell [4]. - **Sentiment in the sales area**: Market dealers said that although the loading price at the origin has increased, due to fierce market competition, most soybean product factories have enough raw materials for production for some time and are not in a hurry to replenish their inventories. Some soybean product factories may stop or limit production and wait for a better time to replenish their inventories if the raw material soybean price continues to rise [4].