【相关阅读】 钟声|二〇二五中美经贸启示录：以稳定合作实现共同繁荣 以求同存异妥处双方分歧——二〇二五中美经贸启示录③ 二〇二五中美经贸启示录：以正确认知共寻相处之道 钟声|二〇二五中美经贸启示录：以务实行动勇担大国责任 原标题：以自身发展增益全球繁荣（钟声·大国外交·2025年度回眸） ——二〇二五中美经贸启示录⑤ 中美作为世界上最大的发展中国家和发达国家，两国聚焦自身发展，办好各自的事，不仅关乎两国人民 福祉，也是世界和平发展的重要动力 2025年，世界在变乱交织中加速演进。中国发展与世界格局的联动性不断增强，中国对全球增长、科技 变革和全球治理的影响更加深远而积极。最新发布的2025年中国国际形象全球调查报告显示，近九成受 访者表示对未来10年中国经济持续增长有信心，国际民意对中国文化、技术兴趣高，期待中国更多参与 国际事务、改革完善全球治理。 "信心""耐心""底气"——这些已成为国际社会观察中国应对复杂外部环境时的高频词。今年以来，面对 国际经济贸易秩序遭遇严峻冲击，中国统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸合作，坚定不移办好自己的事，经 济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。乱云飞渡仍从容，面对前进道路上的种种风险挑 ...

资格编号：S0120523070007 邮箱：tansy＠tebon.com.cn 证券研究报告 | 宏观点评 2025 年 12 月 9 日 [Table_Main] 宏观点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号：S0120524010005 邮箱：chengqiang＠tebon.com.cn 薛威 资格编号：S0120523080002 邮箱：xuewei＠tebon.com.cn 谭诗吟 出口回暖，验证韧性 ——2025 年 11 月进出口数据点评 [Table_Summary] 投资要点： 核心观点：2025 年 11 月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比 5.9%，进口金额（美元 计价）同比+1.9%；按人民币计价，出口和进口金额同比分别为 5.7%与+1.7%； 均显著高于前值，我们认为外贸整体的回暖是欧洲与日韩市场需求修复叠加我国 强大的出口竞争力带来的结果，而连续正增的进口凸显内需韧性，高企的顺差凸显 我国的外贸竞争力。 一、对美经贸回落，难阻出口回暖，对欧与日韩出口显著回升 2025 年 11 月当月中国出口金额（美元计价）同比 5.9%，迅速扭转了上月转负的 状态，海外需求修复的背景下，我国产业出口竞 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the first ten months of this year, China's total import and export value with the United States reached 3.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.9% [1] Summary by Category Trade Performance - Exports to the United States amounted to 2.52 trillion yuan, down 17% year-on-year [1] - Imports from the United States were 851.18 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 12% [1] Historical Comparison - The export scale to the United States in the first ten months of this year is lower than that of 2018, which was 2.56 trillion yuan [1] - In comparison, the export figures for the same period in previous years were 2.36 trillion yuan in 2017 and 2.10 trillion yuan in 2015 [1]

Core Points - The announcement of the first domestically produced rare earth magnet in the U.S. is seen as a significant technological breakthrough, but it is met with skepticism regarding its actual industrial viability and performance standards [1][3][5] - The U.S. still relies heavily on China for the processing and production of rare earth materials, indicating that the production capabilities are far from complete [3][5][9] - The political context surrounding the announcement suggests it may be more of a political show than a genuine industrial achievement, aimed at boosting morale and creating pressure in U.S.-China trade negotiations [7][9][11] Industry Analysis - The rare earth magnet produced lacks essential performance certifications and is not yet ready for mass production, highlighting significant gaps in the U.S. rare earth supply chain [3][5][15] - The cost of producing high-purity rare earth materials in the U.S. is significantly higher than in China, which raises concerns about the competitiveness of U.S. production capabilities [5][15] - The U.S. military's demand for rare earth materials, particularly for advanced weaponry, underscores the urgency of developing a self-sufficient supply chain, yet current efforts are insufficient to meet this demand [5][9] Political Context - The timing of the announcement coincides with recent U.S.-China trade negotiations, suggesting a strategic move to project strength and progress in reducing dependency on China [7][9][11] - The U.S. narrative of being "choked" by China in terms of rare earth supplies is critiqued as a misrepresentation of the underlying regulatory and compliance issues that affect trade [11][13] - The U.S. has a history of demanding exceptions to trade rules, which complicates its relationship with China regarding rare earth exports [11][13][15]

Core Viewpoint - Significant progress has been made in China-US economic and trade negotiations, with the US agreeing to cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods [1] Market Reactions - A-shares opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.08% [1] - International gold prices rebounded, surpassing $4000 per ounce, leading to a collective rise in gold stocks [1] - The retail sector became active at the beginning of trading following the issuance of a notice by the Ministry of Finance and four other departments regarding the improvement of duty-free shop policies to boost consumption [1] - Small metals, coal, and semiconductor sectors opened lower [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent China-US economic and trade consultations, highlighting the constructive dialogue and basic consensus reached between the two parties on key economic issues [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - The consultations were guided by the important consensus of the two heads of state, focusing on significant economic and trade concerns shared by both sides [1] - Both parties engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive exchanges, aiming to address each other's concerns [1] - There is an agreement to further define specific details and to follow through with domestic approval processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that recent China-U.S. economic and trade consultations were constructive, focusing on key issues of mutual concern and reaching a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns [1] Group 1 - The consultations were guided by important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries [1] - Both sides engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive discussions [1] - There is an agreement to further define specific details and to follow domestic approval procedures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative and vice minister, Li Chenggang, stated that the China-U.S. economic and trade teams engaged in in-depth and candid discussions on mutually concerned economic and trade issues [1]. Group 1 - The discussions between China and the U.S. focused on key economic and trade topics of mutual interest [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's International Trade Negotiation Representative and Vice Minister Li Chenggang stated that the China-U.S. economic and trade teams engaged in in-depth and candid discussions on mutually concerned economic and trade issues [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic and Trade Discussions - The discussions between the China-U.S. economic and trade teams were characterized as in-depth and candid, focusing on issues of mutual concern [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative and vice minister Li Chenggang stated that the economic and trade teams of China and the United States engaged in in-depth and candid discussions on trade issues of mutual concern [1] Group 1 - The discussions between the Chinese and U.S. economic and trade teams focused on issues that both sides are concerned about [1]