蛋白粕： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周四，CBOT大豆触及两个月高位，预期贸易前景改善，推动美豆需求增加。消息称，特朗普将于4月 访华，并且中美经贸团队保持密切沟通，市场解读为利好美豆出口。美国农业部周度出口销售数据不及 预期，单周销售净增28.18万吨，较之前减少36%，较四周均值减少80%。此外，民间出口商确认向埃及 出口销售10.8万吨大豆。国内方面，蛋白粕减仓上行。美豆上涨，带动进口成本走高，推涨国内蛋白粕 市场。同时节前空头资金集中离场也推涨市场。蛋白粕现货市场交投清淡，上下游放假中，基差坚挺。 策略上，短线参与，59反套离场。 油脂： （侯雪玲，从业资格号：F3048706；交易咨询资格号：Z0013637） 周四，BMD棕榈油连跌第三日，受累于马币走升和周边市场疲软。之前马棕油行业会议上，多名行业 专家预计马棕油价格重心将震荡下行，因供应充足而需求疲软。数据方面，印尼12月底库存为266万 吨，马来1月底库存282万吨。船运数据显示，马棕油2月1-10日出口环比下降10.5%-14%。国内方面， 棕榈油下跌，豆油和菜籽油价格坚挺。国内棕榈油继续下 ...

【相关阅读】 钟声|二〇二五中美经贸启示录：以稳定合作实现共同繁荣 以求同存异妥处双方分歧——二〇二五中美经贸启示录③ 二〇二五中美经贸启示录：以正确认知共寻相处之道 钟声|二〇二五中美经贸启示录：以务实行动勇担大国责任 原标题：以自身发展增益全球繁荣（钟声·大国外交·2025年度回眸） ——二〇二五中美经贸启示录⑤ 中美作为世界上最大的发展中国家和发达国家，两国聚焦自身发展，办好各自的事，不仅关乎两国人民 福祉，也是世界和平发展的重要动力 2025年，世界在变乱交织中加速演进。中国发展与世界格局的联动性不断增强，中国对全球增长、科技 变革和全球治理的影响更加深远而积极。最新发布的2025年中国国际形象全球调查报告显示，近九成受 访者表示对未来10年中国经济持续增长有信心，国际民意对中国文化、技术兴趣高，期待中国更多参与 国际事务、改革完善全球治理。 "信心""耐心""底气"——这些已成为国际社会观察中国应对复杂外部环境时的高频词。今年以来，面对 国际经济贸易秩序遭遇严峻冲击，中国统筹国内经济发展和国际经贸合作，坚定不移办好自己的事，经 济社会发展主要目标将顺利完成。乱云飞渡仍从容，面对前进道路上的种种风险挑 ...

Export Performance - In November 2025, China's export value (in USD) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, reversing the previous month's decline[4] - Exports to the EU surged by 14.8%, while exports to Japan and South Korea rose by 3.2%[4] - Cumulative export growth for electromechanical products and high-tech products was significant, at 8.0% and 6.6% respectively[4] Import Trends - November 2025 saw a 1.9% year-on-year increase in import value (in USD), marking six consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Major contributors to import growth included Brazil (19.4%) and Africa (13.4%), while imports from the US fell by 19.1%[5] - Cumulative import growth for high-tech products and electromechanical products was 9.6% and 5.5% respectively[5] Trade Surplus and Competitiveness - The trade surplus in November 2025 rebounded to $111.68 billion, indicating strong industrial competitiveness[6] - The surplus with the EU and ASEAN increased, while the deficit with Japan and South Korea narrowed significantly[7] - The trade dynamics suggest a growing importance of ASEAN in China's foreign trade landscape[7] Market Outlook - The probability of continued external demand recovery is high, supported by expected improvements in the US economy and the holiday season[8] - The focus in the market is shifting towards financial and technology sectors, driven by recent policy stability following the US-China summit[8] - Risks include potential escalations in US-China tensions and geopolitical crises that could impact trade and financial markets[17]

Core Viewpoint - In the first ten months of this year, China's total import and export value with the United States reached 3.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 15.9% [1] Summary by Category Trade Performance - Exports to the United States amounted to 2.52 trillion yuan, down 17% year-on-year [1] - Imports from the United States were 851.18 billion yuan, showing a decrease of 12% [1] Historical Comparison - The export scale to the United States in the first ten months of this year is lower than that of 2018, which was 2.56 trillion yuan [1] - In comparison, the export figures for the same period in previous years were 2.36 trillion yuan in 2017 and 2.10 trillion yuan in 2015 [1]

Core Points - The announcement of the first domestically produced rare earth magnet in the U.S. is seen as a significant technological breakthrough, but it is met with skepticism regarding its actual industrial viability and performance standards [1][3][5] - The U.S. still relies heavily on China for the processing and production of rare earth materials, indicating that the production capabilities are far from complete [3][5][9] - The political context surrounding the announcement suggests it may be more of a political show than a genuine industrial achievement, aimed at boosting morale and creating pressure in U.S.-China trade negotiations [7][9][11] Industry Analysis - The rare earth magnet produced lacks essential performance certifications and is not yet ready for mass production, highlighting significant gaps in the U.S. rare earth supply chain [3][5][15] - The cost of producing high-purity rare earth materials in the U.S. is significantly higher than in China, which raises concerns about the competitiveness of U.S. production capabilities [5][15] - The U.S. military's demand for rare earth materials, particularly for advanced weaponry, underscores the urgency of developing a self-sufficient supply chain, yet current efforts are insufficient to meet this demand [5][9] Political Context - The timing of the announcement coincides with recent U.S.-China trade negotiations, suggesting a strategic move to project strength and progress in reducing dependency on China [7][9][11] - The U.S. narrative of being "choked" by China in terms of rare earth supplies is critiqued as a misrepresentation of the underlying regulatory and compliance issues that affect trade [11][13] - The U.S. has a history of demanding exceptions to trade rules, which complicates its relationship with China regarding rare earth exports [11][13][15]

Core Viewpoint - Significant progress has been made in China-US economic and trade negotiations, with the US agreeing to cancel the 10% "fentanyl tariff" on Chinese goods [1] Market Reactions - A-shares opened slightly lower, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.05%, the Shenzhen Component down 0.11%, and the ChiNext Index down 0.08% [1] - International gold prices rebounded, surpassing $4000 per ounce, leading to a collective rise in gold stocks [1] - The retail sector became active at the beginning of trading following the issuance of a notice by the Ministry of Finance and four other departments regarding the improvement of duty-free shop policies to boost consumption [1] - Small metals, coal, and semiconductor sectors opened lower [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent China-US economic and trade consultations, highlighting the constructive dialogue and basic consensus reached between the two parties on key economic issues [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - The consultations were guided by the important consensus of the two heads of state, focusing on significant economic and trade concerns shared by both sides [1] - Both parties engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive exchanges, aiming to address each other's concerns [1] - There is an agreement to further define specific details and to follow through with domestic approval processes [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed that recent China-U.S. economic and trade consultations were constructive, focusing on key issues of mutual concern and reaching a basic consensus on arrangements to address each other's concerns [1] Group 1 - The consultations were guided by important consensus reached by the leaders of both countries [1] - Both sides engaged in candid, in-depth, and constructive discussions [1] - There is an agreement to further define specific details and to follow domestic approval procedures [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's international trade negotiation representative and vice minister, Li Chenggang, stated that the China-U.S. economic and trade teams engaged in in-depth and candid discussions on mutually concerned economic and trade issues [1]. Group 1 - The discussions between China and the U.S. focused on key economic and trade topics of mutual interest [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce's International Trade Negotiation Representative and Vice Minister Li Chenggang stated that the China-U.S. economic and trade teams engaged in in-depth and candid discussions on mutually concerned economic and trade issues [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections - Economic and Trade Discussions - The discussions between the China-U.S. economic and trade teams were characterized as in-depth and candid, focusing on issues of mutual concern [1].