【环球时报综合报道】由于冲突、制裁以及产量激增等因素扰乱全球供应链，从能源产品到大宗矿石， 全球海运大宗商品的运费正朝着罕见的年末上涨态势迈进。彭博社4日称，今年海运运费飙升颠覆了大 宗商品贸易格局。 据彭博社报道，今年以来，全球原油海运主要航线的日均费用增幅最大，高达467%，而液化天然气 （LNG）和铁矿石等大宗商品的运输费率分别增长了四倍多和两倍多。而通常情况下，由于年末需求 季节性疲软，运费会有所回落。如今船舶在海上运输货物的时间延长，助推了运费飙升。多位航运高管 预计，整体市场供应紧张的局面至少将持续到明年年初。总部位于塞浦路斯的大型油轮公司Frontline Management首席执行官巴斯塔德在上月底的财报电话会议上表示："我们看到的是一个极其紧张的航运 市场。" 彭博社报道称，全球关键航线上的地缘冲突加剧推高了整体运输成本，例如红海局势紧张迫使一些船只 绕道非洲。南非《货运新闻》2日称，黑海无人机袭击事件震动全球航运。市场对此反应迅速。消息人 士称，前往乌克兰港口航程的战争风险保险费率已从船舶价值的约0.4%升至0.5%。而风险本就较高的 俄罗斯航线黑海港口，其保险费率则从大约0.6%攀升到 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of acknowledging historical mistakes during the early stages of socialist construction in China, particularly the Great Leap Forward, to avoid repeating past tragedies [2][4]. Economic Impact of the Great Leap Forward - The Great Leap Forward led to a significant decline in agricultural production, with total agricultural output in 1960 only reaching 47.2% of the planned target, a 12.6% decrease from 1959 [6]. - Grain production fell to 48.3% of the planned target in 1960, a 15.6% drop from 1959, while cotton and oilseed production saw declines of 37.8% and 50.9%, respectively [6][7]. - By the end of 1960, grain reserves had decreased to 28.65 billion kilograms, a 29% reduction from 40.2 billion kilograms in 1955, leading to severe food shortages [6][8]. Social Consequences - The population faced severe food shortages, with per capita grain consumption dropping from 203 kg in 1957 to 163.5 kg in 1960, a 19.4% decrease [8]. - The rural population experienced a drastic reduction in livestock, with pig numbers falling by 43.6% from 1957 to 1960 [7]. - Non-normal death rates surged, with the mortality rate reaching 25.43‰ in 1960, significantly higher than the 10.8‰ in 1957 [9]. Economic Imbalance - The Great Leap Forward caused a severe imbalance in the national economy, with industrial output growing by 1.3 times from 1957 to 1960, while agricultural output fell by 22.7% [11][12]. - Heavy industry saw a disproportionate increase, with its share of total industrial output rising from 25.5% in 1957 to 52.1% in 1960, while light industry lagged behind [12][13]. - Infrastructure investment during this period exceeded planned amounts by 71%, leading to a consumption squeeze and economic tension [16]. Inflation and Market Supply Issues - The rapid increase in infrastructure investment led to a workforce surge from 24.51 million in 1957 to 50.44 million in 1960, exacerbating fiscal pressures [17]. - The money supply increased by 82% from 1957 to 1960, resulting in significant inflation and a decline in purchasing power [17]. - The government implemented rationing and coupon systems for essential goods, further straining consumer living standards [17][18].