Group 1 - The U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) will initiate public consultation for the USMCA in the coming weeks, marking the first formal step towards renegotiation [1] - The consultation process must be completed by October 4, 2023, as mandated by the law governing the agreement [1] - The USMCA includes a mandatory six-year review clause, with the first trilateral review meeting scheduled for no later than July 1, 2026 [1] Group 2 - The USMCA is considered a significant trade achievement of the Trump administration, replacing NAFTA, which was criticized for causing job losses in the U.S. [2] - Tariffs imposed by the Trump administration on Canada and Mexico have undermined the effectiveness of the USMCA, particularly affecting the automotive, steel, aluminum, and lumber industries [2] Group 3 - The tariffs serve to increase leverage for the U.S. in the renegotiation process, disrupting North America's complex supply chains, especially in the automotive sector [3] - Recent discussions between U.S. Secretary of State Rubio and Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum focused on cross-border security, which is seen as a prerequisite for USMCA renegotiation [3] - Mexico is highly sensitive to the negotiation outcomes, as 80% of its exports go to the U.S., and the U.S. has extended tariffs on Mexican goods for an additional 90 days [3] Group 4 - The U.S. has criticized Mexico's policies in energy, telecommunications, agriculture, and intellectual property, highlighting issues such as state-owned enterprise bias and lack of fair competition [4] - Mexico's Economy Minister Marcelo Ebrard acknowledged that the upcoming reviews and negotiations will be challenging but emphasized the need for cooperation among the three countries to maintain North America's competitiveness [4]

Group 1 - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts global economic growth at 3.0% for this year, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the April prediction, and 3.1% for 2026, also up by 0.1 percentage points [1] - The global trade growth forecast has been raised by 0.9 percentage points to 2.6% for this year, indicating resilience in the global economy amid increasing uncertainties [1] - China's economic growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.8 percentage points to 5.6% for this year, and by 0.2 percentage points to 4.4% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for India has been slightly increased by 0.2 percentage points to 6.4% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points for next year [1] - Developed economies' growth predictions have been raised by 0.1 percentage points to 1.5% for this year and 1.6% for next year [1] - The U.S. economic growth forecast has been increased by 0.1 percentage points to 1.9% for this year and by 0.3 percentage points to 2.0% for next year [1] - The growth forecast for developing countries has been raised by 0.4 percentage points to 4.1% for this year and by 0.1 percentage points to 4.0% for next year [1] - The Eurozone growth forecast has been adjusted upward by 0.2 percentage points to 1.0% for this year, while the next year's forecast remains at 1.2% [1] Group 2 - The IMF warns that there are still widespread downside risks to the economic situation, including potential increases in average tariff rates and unresolved trade tensions stemming from the Trump administration [2] - Ongoing uncertainties may begin to suppress economic activity, while geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflationary pressures and disrupt supply chains [2] - High debt levels, unstable public finances, and various structural imbalances continue to pose significant risks [2]

Group 1 - LME copper prices fell to a near one-week low due to a stronger dollar and increasing concerns over global economic growth, with three-month copper down by $40.5 or 0.42% to $9,615 per ton [1][2] - Other base metals also experienced declines, with three-month aluminum down by $25.5 or 1% to $2,521.5 per ton, while zinc saw a slight increase of $4 or 0.15% to $2,640.5 per ton [2] - LME copper has rebounded 19% since hitting a near 19-month low of $8,105 in April [3] Group 2 - Concerns over regional tensions have strengthened the dollar, which typically weakens the prices of dollar-denominated commodities, leading to a cautious stance among funds [4] - A decrease in trading activity was noted as U.S. traders were absent due to the June holiday [4] - LME copper inventories decreased by 4,025 tons to 103,325 tons, marking the lowest level in over a year [7] Group 3 - The U.S. market has seen an influx of copper due to expectations of tariffs on copper imports, resulting in a premium for copper in the U.S. [8] - The aluminum market in the U.S. is experiencing a decline in premiums, with a drop of over 7% in consumer purchases, amid speculation of potential tariff reductions on Canadian aluminum imports [9] - The global lead market is projected to shift to a surplus of 6,900 tons by April 2025, contrasting with a shortage of 11,900 tons in March [9]