Workflow
市场供需盈余压力
icon
Search documents
国投期货能源日报-20251110
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-11-10 12:59
Report Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Not explicitly rated, but from the star description, it's inferred to be in a short - term equilibrium state [1][4] - Fuel Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: ★★★, indicating a clear short - term upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity [1] - Asphalt: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish trend but with low operability on the trading floor [1] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: Not explicitly rated, but from the star description, it's inferred to be in a short - term equilibrium state [1][4] Core Views - The crude oil market had a weak and volatile performance last week. OPEC+ suspending production increases in Q1 next year and the U.S. Senate's move to end the government shutdown provided short - term support. However, there are still supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 next year. Attention should be paid to short - selling strategies after the oil price rebounds [1] - For fuel oil and low - sulfur fuel oil, the weekly shipment volume has weakened, and social inventories have turned from lower to higher year - on - year. Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment in the market, and the decline continues. The destocking of factories and social warehouses in East China is good, and the basis has strengthened significantly [2] - For asphalt, similar to fuel oil, the weekly shipment volume has weakened, and social inventories have turned from lower to higher year - on - year. Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment in the market, and the decline continues. The destocking of factories and social warehouses in East China is good, and the basis has strengthened significantly [2] - LPG has shown strong performance in the oil product futures. The latest week saw a decrease in both the commercial volume and arrival volume of liquefied gas. The chemical demand for propane and butane has increased, and the combustion demand has improved due to significant cooling in many places. The inventory rates of refineries and ports have decreased, and the improved fundamentals support the LPG trading floor [2] Summary by Industry Crude Oil - Market performance last week: Weak and volatile [1] - Support factors: OPEC+ suspending production increases in Q1 next year, the U.S. Senate's move to end the government shutdown [1] - Future pressure: Supply - demand surplus pressures in Q4 and Q1 next year [1] - Strategy: Pay attention to short - selling strategies after the oil price rebounds [1] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Shipment volume: The weekly shipment volume has weakened, and it dropped below 400,000 tons in mid - October [2] - Inventory: Social inventories turned from lower to higher year - on - year in late October [2] - Market sentiment: Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment [2] - Regional performance: Good destocking in East China, strong resistance of the lowest spot price, and significant strengthening of the basis [2] Asphalt - Shipment volume: The weekly shipment volume has weakened, and it dropped below 400,000 tons in mid - October [2] - Inventory: Social inventories turned from lower to higher year - on - year in late October [2] - Market sentiment: Multiple negative signals have increased the bearish sentiment [2] - Regional performance: Good destocking in East China, strong resistance of the lowest spot price, and significant strengthening of the basis [2] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Market performance: Strong performance in oil product futures [2] - Supply: Decrease in commercial volume and arrival volume in the latest week [2] - Demand: Increased chemical demand for propane and butane, and improved combustion demand due to cooling [2] - Inventory: Decrease in inventory rates of refineries and ports, and fundamental improvement supports the trading floor [2]