Core Viewpoint - The statement by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee regarding the unease of premature rate cuts in the absence of inflation data has significantly impacted global markets, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices and a drop in major U.S. stock indices [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The internal division within the Federal Reserve has become public, with contrasting views on interest rate cuts among its members, creating confusion in market expectations [3]. - The absence of key economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, increasing market uncertainty [3][10]. - The cautious stance of Goolsbee contrasts sharply with the aggressive rate cut proposal from Fed Governor Milan, highlighting the mixed signals from the Fed [3][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after Goolsbee's comments, despite a report showing a net inflow of $8.2 billion into global gold ETFs in October, reaching a total AUM of $503 billion [3][8]. - The divergence in the gold market is evident, with a decline in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures to the lowest level since 2019, indicating extreme caution among professional investors [5][8]. - U.S. tech stocks faced substantial losses, with major companies like AMD and Oracle seeing declines of nearly 6% and 4% respectively, due to their high valuations and sensitivity to interest rate changes [5][10]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Signals - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with October layoffs reaching a seven-month high, yet these signals are being overlooked in light of inflation concerns [6][10]. - The market's reaction to economic data has shifted, with traditionally negative data no longer leading to positive market responses, indicating a period of skepticism regarding rate cuts [10][11]. Group 4: Global Asset Trends - Emerging market assets, particularly Chinese stocks, have shown resilience, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising nearly 2%, suggesting a shift of funds from overvalued U.S. tech stocks [6][10]. - The global demand for gold remains strong, with a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3, despite a 21% year-on-year decline in net purchases by central banks [13][15]. - The changing dynamics in the gold market reflect a broader transformation in global asset allocation, as traditional safe-haven assets face challenges from digital currencies and new forms of investment [15].