今天的走势 今天再回落，下穿4040的位置。 继续回调，下看4000的关口的支撑。 不破此位置，再次反弹，继续看挑战4064的位置。 黄金昨天一天内两连跳，接连止跌反弹后，4100再接连遇阻。快速冲高，又跳水，70美金范围内，上蹿 下跳穿梭4100的关口，今天震荡破低，下探4000关口。 昨天4100附近，再次空获利。 昨晚再做过山车，小破4100后。 再次上演跳水，持续4040范围内洗盘。 另外一方面，美9月非农驾到，迟到了一个多月，终于还是来了。不过影响力显然不足，迟到的数据终 归还是迟到。同步公布的还有美失业率，意外的是刷了4年新高，失业金月月增加，两大数据打架，黄 金上蹿下跳不断洗盘。 今天消息面 今天重点美11月PMI来了，检测美经济的强弱的重要指标，或再揭开美经济的真实面纱，或再给美股美 债带来一个冲击，进而波及美元和黄金。 以及重点，今晚周五收官，美联储官员密集发声，又要搞事情来了。美劳动力市场谜团未解，通胀的担 忧，继续给美联储政策上难题，内部鹰鸽继续分歧，加剧撕裂感，晴雨难测，今晚或又要面临黑色星期 五。 当然了，再次上破，继续看向4110的阻力。 同时，4064下方，再次遇阻回调。 下穿4 ...

周一（11月17日）亚盘时段，现货黄金开盘后表现清淡承压于周五大幅回吐后承压，目前暂交投于4083美元附近。上周金价冲高回落，周初开盘时，金价强 势站稳4000美元关口，投资者们满心期待着新一轮的狂飙突进，并一度向上个月创下的历史新高发起冲击，最高触及4245美元附近。然而，随着美联储官员 接二连三的鹰派言论如惊雷般炸响，市场情绪瞬间逆转，现货黄金在上周五暴挫近2%，收于4085美元/盎司附近。在美联储政策不确定性与美国经济数据真 空的双重夹击下，黄金的多头大军被迫按下暂停键。 美国10年期公债收益率反弹3.5个基点至4.146%，两年期收益率更创6月中旬以来最大单周涨幅，收益率曲线呈现"熊市陡峭化"——长期端升势更快，暗示市 场担忧通胀回潮与美联储暂停宽松。美元指数微涨0.1%至99.26，，交易员们在权衡数据回归后的波动风险。 上周黄金市场的转折点，无疑是美联储官员们那轮接连不断的"鹰派"表态，仿佛一记记重拳，直击投资者对宽松政策的幻想。堪萨斯城联储主席施密德在上 周五的能源会议上直言不讳，他对"过热"通胀的担忧远不止于关税带来的局部冲击，而是渗透到整个经济体的价格传导机制中。施密德强调，企业何时将成 本 ...

Core Viewpoint - The statement by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee regarding the unease of premature rate cuts in the absence of inflation data has significantly impacted global markets, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices and a drop in major U.S. stock indices [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The internal division within the Federal Reserve has become public, with contrasting views on interest rate cuts among its members, creating confusion in market expectations [3]. - The absence of key economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, increasing market uncertainty [3][10]. - The cautious stance of Goolsbee contrasts sharply with the aggressive rate cut proposal from Fed Governor Milan, highlighting the mixed signals from the Fed [3][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after Goolsbee's comments, despite a report showing a net inflow of $8.2 billion into global gold ETFs in October, reaching a total AUM of $503 billion [3][8]. - The divergence in the gold market is evident, with a decline in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures to the lowest level since 2019, indicating extreme caution among professional investors [5][8]. - U.S. tech stocks faced substantial losses, with major companies like AMD and Oracle seeing declines of nearly 6% and 4% respectively, due to their high valuations and sensitivity to interest rate changes [5][10]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Signals - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with October layoffs reaching a seven-month high, yet these signals are being overlooked in light of inflation concerns [6][10]. - The market's reaction to economic data has shifted, with traditionally negative data no longer leading to positive market responses, indicating a period of skepticism regarding rate cuts [10][11]. Group 4: Global Asset Trends - Emerging market assets, particularly Chinese stocks, have shown resilience, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising nearly 2%, suggesting a shift of funds from overvalued U.S. tech stocks [6][10]. - The global demand for gold remains strong, with a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3, despite a 21% year-on-year decline in net purchases by central banks [13][15]. - The changing dynamics in the gold market reflect a broader transformation in global asset allocation, as traditional safe-haven assets face challenges from digital currencies and new forms of investment [15].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese investors have significantly withdrawn from overseas equity and bond markets in response to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, opting to lock in profits from previous market gains [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - For the week ending November 1, Japanese investors net sold 581.1 billion yen (approximately 3.85 billion USD) in foreign stocks, marking the largest weekly sell-off since October 4 [1] - Additionally, they reduced holdings in long-term foreign bonds by 354.4 billion yen and short-term bonds by 798.7 billion yen, indicating a cautious stance towards overseas fixed-income assets [1][5] - The MSCI World Index has declined by 1.6% this week, poised for its first weekly drop in four weeks [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, emphasizing a balanced labor market and sustained inflation above the 2% target, dampened expectations for rate cuts in December [2][3] - This shift in sentiment has prompted Japanese investors to reassess the risk-reward profile of their overseas asset allocations [3] Group 3: Contrasting Trends - In contrast to the sell-off in foreign assets, foreign investors have net bought Japanese stocks for the fifth consecutive week, purchasing approximately 690.1 billion yen in local shares, reflecting ongoing confidence in the Japanese market [5] - Despite this, the Nikkei 225 index has seen a decline of about 5% this week, with significant losses in technology stocks, highlighting the global market's impact on Japan [5] - Japanese long-term bonds experienced a net inflow of approximately 280.6 billion yen after two weeks of foreign capital outflow, while foreign investors also acquired short-term debt instruments valued at 1.83 trillion yen, indicating a preference for yen-denominated assets [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has dropped to a critical support level of $100,000, influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1] - The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of approximately $1.3 billion over the past four days, compounded by over $1 billion in long liquidations and increased volatility due to options hedging [1] - Analysts suggest that if ETF fund flows stabilize and no new macroeconomic negatives emerge, market sentiment may improve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows significant divergence among policymakers regarding the future interest rates, leading to increased uncertainty in the market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - One policymaker predicts an interest rate of 4.4% by the end of the year, which is above the range of 4.00%-4.25% [1] - Another policymaker has lowered the end-of-year policy rate forecast to 2.9% [1] Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Vanguard's senior U.S. analyst, Josh Hirt, notes that the market is struggling to digest the information provided by the Federal Reserve [1] - The significant disagreement among committee members is contributing to heightened uncertainty, which may lead to increased volatility in the market [1]

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of various factors on gold and oil prices, particularly focusing on the upcoming US GDP data and its potential to trigger market volatility [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy, especially President Trump's attempts to influence the Fed, has heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - The market anticipates the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to remain at a 2.6% increase for July, influencing gold prices based on whether the data shows rising inflation pressures [2][3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with key support levels around 3385 and resistance levels at 3410 and 3425 [4][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring specific price levels for trading strategies, suggesting a cautious approach to trading around the 3400 mark due to previous volatility [6] - The analysis provides specific trading strategies for both long and short positions, highlighting the need for strict risk management and stop-loss measures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing volatility due to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks, particularly influenced by President Trump's attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On Wednesday, gold prices showed a slight increase of 0.1% to $3,397.18 per ounce, reflecting a cautious market ahead of significant data releases [3]. - Gold prices surged to a two-week high following news of Trump's attempt to fire a Fed official, indicating that political uncertainty is a key catalyst for gold price movements [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to maintain a 2.6% increase for July, as this will influence market expectations regarding potential Fed rate cuts [3][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is currently over 87%, supporting gold's resilience in the market [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump's pressure on the Fed for quicker rate cuts and his criticism of Chairman Powell's actions have led to increased volatility in the gold market, as well as a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [5]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, with potential legal disputes arising from Trump's actions, which could further complicate the Fed's policy decisions [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing relative stability amid uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks, with potential volatility lurking beneath the surface [1][2][4] Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, impacting market confidence and increasing gold's short-term appeal [1][3] - The market anticipates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, which supports gold's resilience [5] - Fed officials emphasize that any rate cut will depend on upcoming economic data, adding to the uncertainty surrounding gold prices [5][6] Inflation Data Impact - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is crucial, with expectations of a 2.6% increase for July, which could influence rate cut expectations and gold prices [2][6] - If PCE data shows stronger inflation, it may challenge the Fed's rate cut path, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6][10] Market Dynamics: Dollar and Bond Market - The dollar's fluctuations and bond market dynamics are closely linked to gold prices, with recent movements indicating cautious investor sentiment [7][8] - The yield curve has steepened, suggesting economic recovery expectations, but also hints at potential for more accommodative policies, indirectly benefiting gold [7][8] Summary - The gold market is at a crossroads influenced by multiple factors, including Fed internal conflicts, inflation data, and market dynamics, with the PCE data being a decisive variable for short-term price movements [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the influence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical risks, and upcoming economic data on gold prices. The market is at a crossroads, with various factors shaping its future trajectory. Group 1: Market Influences - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,390.47 per ounce, showing stability amid uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's policies and geopolitical risks [1] - The market anticipates the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to maintain a 2.6% increase for July, influencing gold's price movements [1][2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is over 87%, providing some support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Economic Data Impact - If the PCE data shows stronger inflationary pressures, it could challenge the market's expectations for a rate cut, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is heavily dependent on upcoming economic data, which adds uncertainty to gold price forecasts [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Recent trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions around $3,393, with potential targets set at $3,375 to $3,365 [3][5] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels, with $3,373 identified as a critical support point for potential rebounds [5]