更多精彩内容请关注格林大华期货官方微信 格林大华期货研究院 证监许可【2011】1288 号 2026 年 1 月 5 日 星期一 早盘提示 Morning session notice 联系方式：yujunli@greendh.com | 板块 | 品种 | 多（空） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 【重要资讯】 | | | | | 1、高盛 2026 年十大投资主题聚焦：AI 基础设施投资转向数据中心内部及电力供应 | | | | | 商；医药研发从减肥药转向心血管领域；中国经济增长将超市场预期，技术进步和 | | | | | 出口为主要驱动力等。美联储政策、关税裁决等政治不确定性将主导上半年市场。 | | | | | 2、美国官员证实，特朗普已下令对委内瑞拉境内包括军事设施在内的地点进行空 | | | | | 袭。委内瑞拉总统马杜罗宣布（国家）进入紧急状态，他呼吁人民行动起来 "击 | | | | | 败这场帝国主义侵略"。 | | | | | 3、2025 年贵金属价格大幅上涨，黄金（+65%）、白银（+148%）、铂金（+127%） | | | | | 和 ...

在政策与人事不确定性尚未消化前，单边押注性价比有限，更适合通过期限结构或跨资产对冲应对波 动。 年内降息完成后，市场仍缺乏清晰的"下一步指引"。围绕主席人选博弈、官员内部分歧及收益率曲线波 动，共同形成新的不确定性来源。在这种环境下，政策路径更像是一系列需动态校准的概率判断。对交 易者而言，关注结构性信号变化，比单纯押注结果更为关键。 UNFX12月17日讯 年内第三次降息落地后，美联储未来政策路径的不确定性并未减弱，反而因人事变 动及内部立场分歧进一步升温。周二晚间，《华尔街日报》披露，美国总统特朗普计划于周三面试现任 美联储理事克里斯托弗·沃勒，将其列为潜在下一任主席候选人之一。消息公布后，市场对政策预期面 临再次定价压力。此次人事遴选叠加近期宏观数据扰动和收益率曲线波动，使交易者需要同时消化"政 策已落地"与"政策主导权可能更迭"两条并行主线。 报道显示，沃勒与国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特、前美联储理事凯文·沃什同列面试名单。沃勒在学 界口碑稳健，10月调查显示经济学家普遍认为他是合适的主席人选，其关于降息的论证逻辑自洽，并具 备协调内部分歧的能力。然而，政治现实对其不完全有利：沃勒与特朗普缺乏深厚私 ...

当美联储宣布降息25个基点，道琼斯指数应声上涨近500点时，华尔街似乎集体松了一口气。主席鲍威尔排除了加息可能，强调了对就业的担忧——这套说 辞温和、悦耳，像一首市场期待已久的摇篮曲。 狂欢是真实的。科技股、小盘股、传统蓝筹股无一缺席，连国债收益率和美元都识趣地走低，为派对送上"助攻"。一切看起来都完美得像一部精心编排的戏 剧：坏消息（对经济的担忧）被巧妙地转化为好消息（降息预期），最终推导出"牛市永动机"的结论。 但等一下。 在这场喧嚣的庆祝中，一个细节被大多数人忽略，或者说，被有意无意地遗忘了。最终的政策投票结果是9:3。这不是一次压倒性的胜利，甚至算不上一次 坚定的共识。这是一次罕见的分裂，是自2019年以来首次出现三张反对票。 市场的音乐太大声了，以至于盖过了冰山开裂的声音。我们看到的，是鲍威尔在发布会上精心描绘的鸽派路线图；我们没看到的，是决策会议室里那场无声 的战争。这场狂欢，可能建立在一个巨大的误读之上。 第一层：共识的幻觉与"鲍威尔崇拜" 市场交易的并非事实，而是叙事。在过去几十年里，"聆听美联储"已经演变成一种近乎宗教的行为，而美联储主席，就是那个唯一的先知。他的每一个用 词、每一次停顿、甚 ...

Rising yields globally combined with Fed uncertainty have weighed on the U.S. government debt market. ...

Market Overview - Gold experienced significant volatility, with fluctuations around the $4100 mark, ultimately dipping below $4000 [1][12] - The market saw a rapid rise and fall, with a notable $70 range of movement, indicating high trading activity [1] Recent Influences - The Bank of Japan's aggressive monetary policy and unexpected stimulus measures led to a sharp decline in the yen and a strengthening dollar, contributing to gold's price drop [13] - The delayed release of the U.S. non-farm payroll data and rising unemployment rates created mixed signals in the market, further complicating gold's performance [13][15] Upcoming Indicators - The upcoming U.S. November PMI is anticipated to provide insights into the strength of the U.S. economy, which could impact stock and bond markets, as well as the dollar and gold prices [14] - The Federal Reserve's ongoing policy discussions and mixed signals regarding inflation and labor market conditions are expected to create further market uncertainty [14][16] Trading Strategy - Current trading strategies suggest monitoring key resistance levels at $4110 and $4064 for potential short positions, while looking for long opportunities around $1965 and $4000 [12] - Emphasis is placed on the importance of entry and exit points in trading, with a focus on maintaining low risk while maximizing profit potential [14]

Core Viewpoint - The recent hawkish statements from Federal Reserve officials have significantly impacted gold prices, leading to a sharp decline after a period of optimism and high trading volumes [1][3][4] Group 1: Market Reactions - Gold prices opened at around $4083, facing pressure after a significant drop of nearly 2% last Friday, closing at approximately $4085 per ounce [1] - The price of gold had previously surged to a high of $4245, but the market sentiment shifted dramatically due to the Fed's hawkish stance [1][3] - The probability of a rate cut in December plummeted from over 60% to below 46% following the hawkish comments from Fed officials [4] Group 2: Federal Reserve's Influence - Kansas City Fed President Esther George expressed concerns about "overheating" inflation, indicating that the Fed cannot afford to be complacent about inflation expectations [3][4] - Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan reiterated that inflation remains high and is on an upward trend, suggesting that unless compelling evidence of slowing inflation emerges, she would not support further rate cuts [4] - The Fed's shift in tone is linked to the recent government shutdown, which has created a data vacuum, complicating the Fed's decision-making process [5] Group 3: Economic Data and Uncertainty - The government shutdown has resulted in significant delays in key economic data releases, including employment and inflation reports, which are crucial for the Fed's policy decisions [5] - The lack of reliable data before the next Fed meeting may lead to a more cautious approach from policymakers, potentially impacting gold's attractiveness as a non-yielding asset [5][6] - Upcoming economic data releases, including the non-farm payroll report and other indicators, will be critical in shaping market expectations and gold prices [6]

Core Viewpoint - The statement by Chicago Fed President Goolsbee regarding the unease of premature rate cuts in the absence of inflation data has significantly impacted global markets, leading to a sharp decline in gold prices and a drop in major U.S. stock indices [1][3]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Dynamics - The internal division within the Federal Reserve has become public, with contrasting views on interest rate cuts among its members, creating confusion in market expectations [3]. - The absence of key economic data due to the government shutdown complicates the Fed's decision-making process, increasing market uncertainty [3][10]. - The cautious stance of Goolsbee contrasts sharply with the aggressive rate cut proposal from Fed Governor Milan, highlighting the mixed signals from the Fed [3][10]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Gold prices experienced a significant drop after Goolsbee's comments, despite a report showing a net inflow of $8.2 billion into global gold ETFs in October, reaching a total AUM of $503 billion [3][8]. - The divergence in the gold market is evident, with a decline in non-commercial net long positions in COMEX gold futures to the lowest level since 2019, indicating extreme caution among professional investors [5][8]. - U.S. tech stocks faced substantial losses, with major companies like AMD and Oracle seeing declines of nearly 6% and 4% respectively, due to their high valuations and sensitivity to interest rate changes [5][10]. Group 3: Employment and Economic Signals - The labor market shows signs of weakness, with October layoffs reaching a seven-month high, yet these signals are being overlooked in light of inflation concerns [6][10]. - The market's reaction to economic data has shifted, with traditionally negative data no longer leading to positive market responses, indicating a period of skepticism regarding rate cuts [10][11]. Group 4: Global Asset Trends - Emerging market assets, particularly Chinese stocks, have shown resilience, with the Nasdaq China Golden Dragon Index rising nearly 2%, suggesting a shift of funds from overvalued U.S. tech stocks [6][10]. - The global demand for gold remains strong, with a record high of 1,313 tons in Q3, despite a 21% year-on-year decline in net purchases by central banks [13][15]. - The changing dynamics in the gold market reflect a broader transformation in global asset allocation, as traditional safe-haven assets face challenges from digital currencies and new forms of investment [15].

Core Viewpoint - Japanese investors have significantly withdrawn from overseas equity and bond markets in response to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve, opting to lock in profits from previous market gains [1][2] Group 1: Market Reactions - For the week ending November 1, Japanese investors net sold 581.1 billion yen (approximately 3.85 billion USD) in foreign stocks, marking the largest weekly sell-off since October 4 [1] - Additionally, they reduced holdings in long-term foreign bonds by 354.4 billion yen and short-term bonds by 798.7 billion yen, indicating a cautious stance towards overseas fixed-income assets [1][5] - The MSCI World Index has declined by 1.6% this week, poised for its first weekly drop in four weeks [1] Group 2: Federal Reserve Influence - The hawkish comments from Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, emphasizing a balanced labor market and sustained inflation above the 2% target, dampened expectations for rate cuts in December [2][3] - This shift in sentiment has prompted Japanese investors to reassess the risk-reward profile of their overseas asset allocations [3] Group 3: Contrasting Trends - In contrast to the sell-off in foreign assets, foreign investors have net bought Japanese stocks for the fifth consecutive week, purchasing approximately 690.1 billion yen in local shares, reflecting ongoing confidence in the Japanese market [5] - Despite this, the Nikkei 225 index has seen a decline of about 5% this week, with significant losses in technology stocks, highlighting the global market's impact on Japan [5] - Japanese long-term bonds experienced a net inflow of approximately 280.6 billion yen after two weeks of foreign capital outflow, while foreign investors also acquired short-term debt instruments valued at 1.83 trillion yen, indicating a preference for yen-denominated assets [5]

Core Insights - Bitcoin has dropped to a critical support level of $100,000, influenced by a stronger dollar and uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies [1] - The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF has seen a net outflow of approximately $1.3 billion over the past four days, compounded by over $1 billion in long liquidations and increased volatility due to options hedging [1] - Analysts suggest that if ETF fund flows stabilize and no new macroeconomic negatives emerge, market sentiment may improve [1]

Core Viewpoint - The Federal Reserve's dot plot shows significant divergence among policymakers regarding the future interest rates, leading to increased uncertainty in the market [1] Summary by Relevant Categories Federal Reserve Interest Rate Predictions - One policymaker predicts an interest rate of 4.4% by the end of the year, which is above the range of 4.00%-4.25% [1] - Another policymaker has lowered the end-of-year policy rate forecast to 2.9% [1] Market Reactions and Analyst Insights - Vanguard's senior U.S. analyst, Josh Hirt, notes that the market is struggling to digest the information provided by the Federal Reserve [1] - The significant disagreement among committee members is contributing to heightened uncertainty, which may lead to increased volatility in the market [1]