格隆汇9月18日｜美联储点阵图预测方向各异，一位政策制定者预计年底的利率为4.4%，高于 4.00%-4.25%的新区间。另一方面，一位政策制定者将年底政策利率下调至2.9%。Vanguard资深美国分 析师Josh Hirt表示，我认为市场在消化他们获得的所有信息时遇到了困难。当然，点阵图并没有让任何 人对美联储决策者的决策方式有很好的了解。委员会成员之间存在如此大的分歧，导致不确定性加剧， 而波动性增加是反对意见增加的一个潜在后果。 来源：格隆汇APP ...

Group 1 - The article discusses the impact of various factors on gold and oil prices, particularly focusing on the upcoming US GDP data and its potential to trigger market volatility [2][3] - The uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve's policy, especially President Trump's attempts to influence the Fed, has heightened gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][3] - The market anticipates the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to remain at a 2.6% increase for July, influencing gold prices based on whether the data shows rising inflation pressures [2][3] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates that gold is currently experiencing a strong upward trend, with key support levels around 3385 and resistance levels at 3410 and 3425 [4][6] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring specific price levels for trading strategies, suggesting a cautious approach to trading around the 3400 mark due to previous volatility [6] - The analysis provides specific trading strategies for both long and short positions, highlighting the need for strict risk management and stop-loss measures [6]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing volatility due to uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks, particularly influenced by President Trump's attempts to dismiss Fed Governor Cook, raising concerns about the Fed's independence [1][4]. Group 1: Market Reactions - On Wednesday, gold prices showed a slight increase of 0.1% to $3,397.18 per ounce, reflecting a cautious market ahead of significant data releases [3]. - Gold prices surged to a two-week high following news of Trump's attempt to fire a Fed official, indicating that political uncertainty is a key catalyst for gold price movements [4]. Group 2: Economic Indicators - Investors are closely monitoring the upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to maintain a 2.6% increase for July, as this will influence market expectations regarding potential Fed rate cuts [3][5]. - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting is currently over 87%, supporting gold's resilience in the market [5]. Group 3: Federal Reserve Dynamics - Trump's pressure on the Fed for quicker rate cuts and his criticism of Chairman Powell's actions have led to increased volatility in the gold market, as well as a steepening of the U.S. Treasury yield curve [5]. - The independence of the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented challenges, with potential legal disputes arising from Trump's actions, which could further complicate the Fed's policy decisions [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing relative stability amid uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies and geopolitical risks, with potential volatility lurking beneath the surface [1][2][4] Federal Reserve Policy Uncertainty - President Trump’s attempt to dismiss Federal Reserve Governor Cook has raised concerns about the independence of the Fed, impacting market confidence and increasing gold's short-term appeal [1][3] - The market anticipates an 87% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed's September meeting, which supports gold's resilience [5] - Fed officials emphasize that any rate cut will depend on upcoming economic data, adding to the uncertainty surrounding gold prices [5][6] Inflation Data Impact - The upcoming Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data is crucial, with expectations of a 2.6% increase for July, which could influence rate cut expectations and gold prices [2][6] - If PCE data shows stronger inflation, it may challenge the Fed's rate cut path, enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [2][6][10] Market Dynamics: Dollar and Bond Market - The dollar's fluctuations and bond market dynamics are closely linked to gold prices, with recent movements indicating cautious investor sentiment [7][8] - The yield curve has steepened, suggesting economic recovery expectations, but also hints at potential for more accommodative policies, indirectly benefiting gold [7][8] Summary - The gold market is at a crossroads influenced by multiple factors, including Fed internal conflicts, inflation data, and market dynamics, with the PCE data being a decisive variable for short-term price movements [9][10]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the gold market, highlighting the influence of U.S. Federal Reserve policies, geopolitical risks, and upcoming economic data on gold prices. The market is at a crossroads, with various factors shaping its future trajectory. Group 1: Market Influences - Gold prices are currently trading around $3,390.47 per ounce, showing stability amid uncertainties from the Federal Reserve's policies and geopolitical risks [1] - The market anticipates the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) data, which is expected to maintain a 2.6% increase for July, influencing gold's price movements [1][2] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is over 87%, providing some support for gold prices [2] Group 2: Economic Data Impact - If the PCE data shows stronger inflationary pressures, it could challenge the market's expectations for a rate cut, potentially leading to significant fluctuations in gold prices [1][2] - The Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates is heavily dependent on upcoming economic data, which adds uncertainty to gold price forecasts [2] Group 3: Technical Analysis - Recent trading strategies suggest a focus on short positions around $3,393, with potential targets set at $3,375 to $3,365 [3][5] - The article emphasizes the importance of monitoring key support and resistance levels, with $3,373 identified as a critical support point for potential rebounds [5]

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced a rebound, closing at $3347 after reaching an intraday high of $3349 [1] - The market is currently in a wait-and-see mode ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium, with participants looking for clearer policy signals [1][2] - The recent FOMC minutes indicate that only two policymakers supported a rate cut in July, raising concerns that Powell may downplay the prospect of further cuts [1] Group 2 - Technically, gold is in a high-level consolidation pattern, with a slight downward bias and key resistance at $3350-60 [2] - The market is at a critical turning point, suggesting that traders should remain patient and wait for clear directional signals before making significant moves [2] - Suggested trading strategy includes shorting gold at $3350-3352 with a stop loss at $3360, targeting $3320-3300 [3] Group 3 - Key economic data to watch includes initial jobless claims, Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, and various PMI readings scheduled for August 21 [3]

Core Viewpoint - The current gold market is influenced by multiple factors including geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainties, and central bank activities, leading to increased demand for gold as a safe-haven asset. Group 1: Fundamental Analysis - Trade policy uncertainties have escalated as the Trump administration announced tariffs of 25%-40% on imports from 14 countries, impacting global supply chains, particularly in electronics and automotive sectors, which boosts market risk aversion and supports gold prices [3] - Ongoing geopolitical risks are highlighted by recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, leading to a surge in war insurance premiums and potential GDP declines, further enhancing gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [4] - Diverging expectations regarding Federal Reserve policies are noted, with market anticipation of interest rate cuts despite the Fed's current stance, creating a complex environment for the dollar and providing potential support for gold [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently fluctuating within the range of $3280 to $3345 per ounce, with key resistance at $3345 and support at $3280, indicating a potential for upward movement if resistance is broken [9] - Short-term bullish momentum is indicated by the hourly chart, where gold has returned above moving averages, suggesting a possible upward trend if it maintains above $3310 [11] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Fund Flows - Short-term trading is dominated by risk aversion driven by trade tensions, geopolitical conflicts, and uncertainties surrounding Federal Reserve policies, leading to increased safe-haven buying of gold [13] - Institutional investment continues to flow into gold, with central banks increasing their gold reserves, indicating a shift from short-term hedging to long-term strategic allocation [15]

Economic Overview - The latest Federal Reserve Beige Book indicates a slight decline in U.S. economic activity, with rising tariffs and uncertainty impacting the economy broadly, leading to a "slightly pessimistic and uncertain" outlook [1][2] - The ISM Services PMI for May unexpectedly fell to 49.9, below the expected 52, marking the first contraction in service sector activity since July 2023 [4][5] Employment and Labor Market - Employment conditions remain stagnant across most Federal Reserve districts, with many reporting unchanged job markets and some industries planning layoffs [2][5] - The upcoming employment report is critical, with expectations of a modest increase in non-farm payrolls and a stable unemployment rate at 3.9% [7] Inflation and Pricing Pressure - The Beige Book notes that prices are rising at a moderate pace, but businesses expect faster increases in costs and prices in the future, with some planning to pass tariff-related costs onto consumers [2][3] - The ISM Services PMI report highlights a sharp decline in new orders and a significant rise in the prices paid index, indicating dual pressures from tariffs on demand and inflation [4][5] Market Reactions and Predictions - Market participants are hedging against a volatile interest rate path from the Federal Reserve, with expectations ranging from no rate cuts to aggressive cuts by 2025 [6][9] - The divergence in predictions from major banks like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup reflects the uncertainty surrounding the economic outlook and potential Fed actions [6][9] Regulatory Changes - The Senate confirmed Michelle Bowman as the Vice Chair for Supervision at the Federal Reserve, which may introduce new dynamics in financial regulation amidst rising economic uncertainty [8][9]

Group 1: Geopolitical Developments - The U.S. government has shifted its stance on the Russia-Ukraine negotiations, with a call for a "comprehensive and permanent ceasefire" instead of accepting Russia's proposal for a three-day ceasefire [1] - The Trump administration has presented a "take it or leave it" framework to Ukraine, demanding recognition of Crimea as Russian territory and Ukraine's abandonment of NATO membership [3] - Ukraine's President Zelensky has firmly rejected these demands, stating that Ukraine will never legally recognize territorial losses [3] Group 2: Energy Security and Sovereignty Crisis - The potential long-term conflict could lead to renewed European dependence on Russian gas, impacting energy security and economic growth in Europe [4] - Zelensky's refusal to compromise may result in reduced U.S. military aid, weakening Ukraine's defense capabilities against Russian forces [4] - Diverging positions between European nations and the U.S. on Crimea could threaten NATO unity and lead to differing approaches on sanctions and trade negotiations with Russia [4] Group 3: Gold Market Dynamics - Increased geopolitical uncertainty is driving short-term demand for gold, with prices rebounding to $3,313 per ounce as of April 30, 2023, amid concerns over the stalled negotiations [5] - The U.S. dollar's credibility is under pressure due to Trump's tariff policies and rising fiscal deficits, leading to a significant increase in global central bank gold purchases [6] - Market expectations for interest rate cuts are rising, which could influence gold prices depending on the Federal Reserve's actions [7] Group 4: Future Outlook - Key upcoming events include the U.S. ADP employment data on April 30, which could reinforce rate cut expectations if underwhelming, and Russia's Victory Day parade on May 9, which may escalate the conflict [8] - Trump's potential cessation of support for Ukraine could lead to a reevaluation of European security dynamics, increasing volatility in gold prices [8]

Group 1: Market Overview - Gold prices experienced volatility this week, reaching a high of $3500 per ounce before retreating due to a stronger dollar and profit-taking [2][3][4] - Trump's comments regarding interest rates and tariffs influenced market sentiment, initially boosting gold prices but later leading to a correction as trade tensions eased [3][6] - The uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve policies contributed to fluctuations in gold prices, with mixed signals from Fed officials [5] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The recent price action suggests that gold is in a corrective phase after reaching the $3500 peak, with key support at $3260 and resistance at $3370/3371 [10][12][14] - If gold breaks above $3370/3371, it may indicate a continuation of the upward trend, while a drop below $3260 could signal a more significant downward movement [12][14] Group 3: Upcoming Events - The upcoming week will feature significant economic data releases, including non-farm payrolls, Q1 GDP, and PCE inflation data, which are expected to impact gold prices [9]