Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of urea is 0, indicating a neutral view, and the rating range is an integer in the [-2, 2] interval [3] Group 2: Core View of the Report - In the short term, due to some off - market information driving market speculation, urea rebounded sharply yesterday and is expected to show a volatile pattern today. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are still the main contradictions. In the long - term, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains relatively large, and the price center may gradually decline [3] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: On June 26, 2025, the closing price of the urea main contract was 1,740 yuan/ton, up 42 yuan from the previous day; the settlement price was 1,721 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan; the trading volume was 551,401 lots, an increase of 111,858 lots; the open interest of the 09 contract was 255,236 lots, an increase of 8,165 lots; the trading volume was 1.898223 billion yuan, an increase of 405.139 million yuan. The basis in Shandong area was 20 yuan, down 32 yuan; the difference between UR09 - UR01 was 43 yuan, up 12 yuan [1] - **Spot Market**: On June 26, 2025, the factory price of Henan Xinlianxin was 1,810 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Yankuang Xinjiang was 1,560 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Shandong Ruixing was 1,780 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the price of Shanxi Fengxi was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the price of Hebei Dongguang was 1,780 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price of Jiangsu Linggu was 1,860 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trader price in Shandong area was 1,760 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the price in Shanxi area was 1,650 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan [1] - **Supply - side Indicators**: On June 26, 2025, the urea production start - up rate was 86.95%, down 0.48 percentage points from the previous day; the daily output was 201,310 tons, down 1,100 tons [1] Industry News - On June 25, 2025, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises was 1.0959 million tons, a decrease of 40,100 tons from the previous week, a month - on - month decrease of 3.53%. The inventory of domestic urea enterprises continued to decline this cycle, but the overall inventory reduction was limited. The inventory of enterprises increased in Anhui, Hebei, Jiangxi, Shanxi, and Sichuan, and decreased in Gansu, Henan, Hubei, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, Qinghai, Shandong, Shaanxi, Xinjiang, and Yunnan [2] - In the short term, due to some off - market information driving market speculation, urea rebounded sharply yesterday and is expected to show a volatile pattern today. In the medium term, supply pressure and weak domestic demand are still the main contradictions. Weak domestic demand is mainly caused by the pre - placement of agricultural demand and the high - inventory pattern of middle - stream traders. In the long - term, with an assumed export volume of around 2 million tons, the pressure on urea remains relatively large, and the price center may gradually decline. It is recommended to focus on whether international high urea prices can drive up domestic export flow, the transmission strength of exports to spot transactions, and export policy adjustments [3]