1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of raw materials in the production areas is prone to rise and difficult to fall, with strong cost support. The downstream demand is average, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, resulting in light overall trading. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a potential impact on the supply of natural rubber. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of anti - involution, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the impact of regulatory control measures on leading varieties and the overall market sentiment, it is expected that rubber may follow the overall market atmosphere and may have a narrow - range correction [76]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [5]. - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles, with a 7.3% year - on - year decline in June to 1.01 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles rose to 15.6%, and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 34.8%, while the total market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 37.8% [6]. - Thailand and Cambodia had a border conflict on July 24, with both sides accusing the other of opening fire first [7]. - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The annualized sales volume after seasonal adjustment rose to 93 million vehicles/year. Trade frictions affected major markets such as the US and Western Europe, while the Chinese market maintained strong sales [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 15,585 yuan/ton, up 5.23% this week; the closing price of NR2509 was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, up 5.30%; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, up 2.56% [10][11]. Basis and Monthly Spread - As of July 25, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 250.00% and a year - on - year increase of 88.33%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17% [14]. Other Spreads - Cross - variety/cross - market spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 25, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,265 yuan/ton, up 6.09% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year [22][23]. - Non - standard basis spreads: The spreads of Thai mixed rubber to RU, Malaysian mixed rubber to RU, 3L rubber to RU, and African No. 10 rubber to RU changed. For example, the Thai mixed rubber to RU spread was - 485 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, with a large month - on - month change [24][26]. - Light - dark color spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [31]. Substitute Prices - Due to policy factors and the border conflict, the price of synthetic rubber rose, but RU rose more, widening the spread between synthetic rubber and RU. On July 25, 2025, the price of China's mainstream butadiene rubber was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,450 yuan/ton [34]. Capital Movements - The long - short position ratio of RU was relatively low, and the funds settled were neutral year - on - year. The long - short position ratio of NR rose rapidly, and the funds settled increased rapidly. On July 25, 2025, the long - short position ratio of RU was 6.98, and that of NR was 16.72 [36][37]. Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: The temperature in southern Thailand rose, and rainfall continued to ease. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was high year - on - year, and rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month [40][41]. - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50 baht/kg, and the price of Thai glue was 55.3 baht/kg [44][45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex plants and that for whole - milk rubber plants increased [53][54]. - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits recovered. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108 yuan/ton [56][57]. - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [60][61]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the overall tire capacity utilization increased slightly. The inventory of some sample tire enterprises increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23% [64]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of full - steel and semi - steel tires decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [67][68]. Inventory - Spot inventory: As of July 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2891 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [69]. - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 210,800 tons [72].