1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show an oscillating trend. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, with increased volatility recently. The overall fundamentals are weak, but due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillating rhythm [2][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures oscillated during the day, closing at 813 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton or 0.12% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 143,000 lots, the open interest was 371,000 lots, and the settled funds were 6.643 billion yuan. It is currently oscillating between the short - term support near 800 and the short - term resistance near 830 [1] - Spot price: The mainstream spot varieties at Qingdao Port, PB powder, rose 4 to 790, and Super Special powder rose 4 to 672. The main swap was at 107.2 (- 0.05) US dollars/ton. The swap was oscillating at a high level, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - Basis and spread: The converted futures price of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 824.7 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11.7 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 22 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 19.5 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - The US - Iran conflict disrupts the shipping and arrival rhythm of overseas mines, and the Australian hurricane still affects shipping. High oil prices push up the shipping cost of iron ore, and the liquidity of some spot varieties is restricted, making it difficult to trade the overall supply - demand relaxation pressure of iron ore. The short - term trend depends on the spot liquidity issues of some varieties and the development of the US - Iran conflict, and the recent volatility may increase [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: Policy support continues, profit improvement is evident, and physical work volume shows a structural improvement. From January to February, the profits of industrial enterprises increased by 15.2% year - on - year, the profits of the manufacturing industry increased by 18.9% year - on - year, and the profits of high - tech manufacturing increased by 58.7% year - on - year. Real estate transactions have marginally recovered, but land transactions and the listing prices in first - tier cities are still weak. The issuance progress of special bonds is relatively fast, but the elasticity of infrastructure physical work volume may be lower than the nominal scale. Overall, the domestic macro situation is in a state of "continued policy support, marginal profit improvement, and slow demand recovery" [4] - Overseas: The US economy has not stalled, but the combination of "weak demand + high oil price risk" still limits the short - term turning space of the Federal Reserve. The overseas macro environment presents a pattern of "no stall in growth, persistent inflation disturbances, and limited policy space" [4] Viewpoint Summary - On the iron ore fundamentals, the supply side remains loose, the molten iron output on the demand side still has room for further recovery. Attention should be paid to the support strength of peak - season demand. Port inventories have declined to some extent and shifted downstream. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Due to geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the downside space is limited, and it will continue the high - level oscillating rhythm [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Contract Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 futures contracts decreased by 17.5, 13.0, and 9.5 respectively compared to the previous day [3]. - The I05 - I09 spread decreased by 4.5, the I09 - I01 spread decreased by 3.5, and the I01 - I05 spread increased by 8.0 compared to the previous day [3]. 3.2 Basis 3.2.1 Basis Data - The prices of various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines, BRBF, Newman fines, etc. mostly decreased compared to the previous day, with the exception of some like HeSteel concentrate powder and AnSteel concentrate powder remaining unchanged [7]. - The basis of most varieties changed, with some increasing and some decreasing [7]. 3.2.2 Basis Charts - Charts show the basis trends of different iron ore varieties including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. [9][10][12] 3.3 Variety Spreads 3.3.1 Variety Spread Data - The spreads between different iron ore varieties such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, etc. changed compared to the previous day, with some increasing and some decreasing [15]. 3.3.2 Variety Spread Charts - Charts show the spreads between different types of iron ore, including lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [18][19][20][21] 3.4 Other Information - Since December 2nd, the main contract of iron ore is the I2205 contract. The exchange has made adjustments to the deliverable brands, brand premiums and discounts, and quality differences and premiums of iron ore futures contracts [13]. - The adjusted deliverable brands and their premiums and discounts apply to the I2312 and subsequent contracts. Starting from the first trading day after the last delivery day of the I2311 contract, the exchange will handle the registration of standard warehouse receipts for iron ore futures according to the adjusted deliverable brands and premiums and discounts [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The supply pressure of US corn is weakening, and crude oil is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is expected that the bottom of US corn will fluctuate strongly. The supply of North China corn is increasing, and the upside potential of corn spot is limited. Northeast corn is stable, and the purchase price of northern ports has declined today. The auction transaction price of North China wheat has dropped, and the price difference between Northeast corn and North China corn has widened. Wheat auctions increased in March, and it is expected that the upside potential of Northeast corn spot is limited. Corn 05 will maintain a high - level shock [7]. - For corn, although the global corn supply pressure is weakening and US corn will still fluctuate strongly, the domestic wheat - corn price difference is narrowing, the domestic breeding demand is average, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises is increasing. It is expected that the 05 corn futures will fluctuate in the short term, and attention should be paid to the auction policy [4][5]. - For starch, the inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong. The upside potential of corn spot is limited, and the enterprise is already profitable. It is expected that the 05 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [6]. Summary by Directory Part 1: Data - **Futures Disk**: The closing prices of C2601, C2605, C2509, CS2601, CS2605, and CS2509 are 2367, 2376, 2399, 2740, 2763, and 2780 respectively. The price changes are - 3, - 7, - 5, 5, - 9, and 1 respectively, with price change rates of - 0.13%, - 0.29%, - 0.21%, 0.18%, - 0.33%, and 0.04% respectively. The trading volume changes are - 11.52%, - 20.24%, - 7.13%, - 53.38%, - 8.48%, and 14.04% respectively, and the position changes are 3.86%, - 7.02%, 2.02%, 7.56%, - 6.09%, and 3.11% respectively [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn in different regions such as Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajie, etc. range from 2235 to 2530 yuan, with price changes of 0 or small declines. The basis ranges from - 164 to 131 yuan. The spot prices of starch in different regions such as Longfeng, COFCO, etc. range from 2850 to 3100 yuan, with price changes of 0 or small declines. The basis ranges from 87 to 337 yuan [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The corn inter - period price spreads such as C01 - C05, C05 - C09, etc. have corresponding price changes. The starch inter - period price spreads such as CS01 - CS05, CS05 - CS09, etc. also have corresponding price changes. The cross - variety price spreads such as CS09 - C09, CS01 - C01, etc. have corresponding price changes [2]. Part 2: Market Judgment - **Corn**: Crude oil is at a high level, US corn fluctuates in a narrow range, and the global corn supply pressure is weakening. The import profit of foreign corn is rising. The平仓 price of northern ports has declined, and the spot price in the Northeast corn - producing area is stable. The supply of North China deep - processing has decreased, and the corn spot price is stable. The price difference between North China corn and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat - corn price difference has narrowed, and the cost - performance of corn has begun to weaken. The domestic breeding demand is average, the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased, and the corn spot price is relatively strong in the short term. The 05 corn futures fluctuated weakly today, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. Attention should be paid to the auction policy [4][5]. - **Starch**: The number of vehicles arriving at Shandong deep - processing has increased, the Shandong corn spot price is stable, and the starch price in Shandong is around 3010 yuan. The Northeast starch spot price is also strong. The corn starch inventory has increased this week, with a monthly increase of 1.6% and a year - on - year decrease of 10.7%. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price is relatively strong. The upside potential of corn spot is limited, and the enterprise is already profitable. The 05 starch futures fluctuated in a narrow range following corn today. The North China corn has begun to weaken, and the upside potential of starch spot is limited in the short term. It is expected that the 05 starch futures will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [6]. Part 3: Corn Options - **Trading Strategy**: For the unilateral strategy, 05 US corn has support at 450 cents per bushel, and long positions can be taken on 05 corn at low prices. For the arbitrage strategy, short the spread between 05 corn and starch when the price is high and close the position [8][9]. - **Option Strategy**: Use the short put strategy in the short term and operate in a rolling manner [10]. Part 4: Related Attachments - The attachments include multiple graphs such as the North Port corn closing price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread, showing the price trends and spread changes of corn and corn starch in different periods [14][15][19].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View Urea's开工负荷率 has slightly decreased, and off - season reserves are being released into the market, resulting in an abundant supply. Agricultural fertilizer preparation and use, along with the increased operation rate of compound fertilizer plants, have boosted the demand for urea. The inventory level of urea enterprises is relatively low compared to the same period last year, and inventory reduction is smooth. In the short term, the price will fluctuate within a certain range [3]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Changes - Urea's futures price has declined, while the spot price has remained stable. On March 20, the closing price of the urea 2605 contract was 1841 yuan/ton, a decrease of 48 yuan/ton or 2.54% from last week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1838 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton or 0.54% from last week [3][4]. - The main - contract basis of urea has strengthened. On March 20, the main - contract basis in the Henan market was - 3 yuan/ton, with a weekly basis operating range of (- 57) - (- 3) yuan/ton [3][7]. - The 5 - 9 spread of urea has weakened. On March 20, the 5 - 9 spread was - 53 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of (- 53) - (- 39) yuan/ton [3][8][9]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The urea operating load rate is 92.21%, a decrease of 1.02 percentage points from last week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises is 77.92%, a decrease of 5.58 percentage points from last week. The daily average urea output is 21.71 tons. Some plants in Hainan, Xinjiang, Sichuan and other regions have been under maintenance or short - term shutdown, resulting in a slight decrease in the operating load. Off - season reserves are being released into the market, and the market supply is abundant [3][11]. - **Cost**: The anthracite market is tepid, and coal prices are mainly stable. As of March 19, the tax - included price of anthracite washed small pieces with S0.4 - 0.5 in Jincheng, Shanxi is 880 - 930 yuan/ton; the tax - included price of anthracite washed lumps with S1 - 1.5 in Yangquan, Shanxi is 780 - 840 yuan/ton, both of which are at the same level as the closing price of the same period last week [15]. - **Profit**: The gross profit margin of coal - based urea is 5.85%, and the gross profit margin of gas - based urea is - 2.65%. The mainstream price of the urea market is running at a high level, and the production profit of urea has recovered [15]. - **Demand**: - **Agricultural demand**: As the temperature warms up, the demand for wheat green - turning fertilizer is gradually being released. The average pre - collection of major urea production enterprises is 6.4 days, and the weekly production - sales rate of urea enterprises is 100.9% [16][17]. - **Industrial demand**: - The capacity operation rate of compound fertilizer enterprises is 49.97%, an increase of 4.41 percentage points from last week. The compound fertilizer inventory is 73.38 tons, a decrease of 1.51 percentage points from last week. The demand in the compound fertilizer market is fair, dealers are accelerating the distribution of goods, mainly to digest inventory, and fertilizer enterprises' operation has increased to a relatively high level to meet the shipping demand [21]. - The operating load rate of melamine enterprises is 62.91%, an increase of 5.91 percentage points from last week, and the weekly output is 3.395 tons. Some plants in Shanxi Fengxi Linyi, Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui D area and Shaanxi Longhua have had short - term shutdowns for maintenance, while some plants in Shanxi Fengxi, Zhongyuan Dahua, Henan Jinkong Tianqing, Hubei Huaqiang and Sichuan Jinxiang Sairui have resumed production after maintenance, and the plants of Shaanxi Longhua and Henan Junhua are in the recovery stage [24]. - The national building materials and home furnishing prosperity index and the sales volume of large - scale building materials and home furnishing stores have decreased, and the demand support in the panel market has weakened [25]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory is 65.1 tons, a decrease of 7 tons from last week and a decrease of 44.4 tons compared to the same period last year. Urea port inventory is 23.9 tons, a decrease of 3 tons from last week. There are 8499 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 16.998 tons, an increase of 2371 receipts or 5.462 tons compared to the same period last year [3][28]. Key Points of Attention - The operation of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [3].

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" by Guangda Futures, dated March 18, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - For I05, the closing price today is 816.5, up 7.5 from the previous day; for I09, it's 785.5, up 8.0; for I01, it's 765.0, up 6.5 [3] - The spread between I05 - I09 is 31.0 today, down 0.5 from the previous day; I09 - I01 is 20.5, up 1.5; I01 - I05 is -51.5, down 1.0 [3] Group 3: Basis Data - The basis of various iron ore varieties has changed. For example, the basis of Carajás fines is 101 today, down 2 from the previous day; BRBF is 39, down 2; Newman fines is -48, down 2 [7] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) are added with a brand premium of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [14] - Brand premiums of some existing varieties are adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and others are 0 [14] - Quality difference and premium rules for substitutes are modified, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and other elements and introducing a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium [14] - Four more deliverable brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Fines, SP10 Fines) are added with a brand premium of 0, applicable to I2312 and subsequent contracts [14] Group 5: Variety Spread Information - The spread between PB lump - PB fines is 113.0 today, unchanged from the previous day; PB fines - FMG mixed fines is 73.0, up 1.0 [16] - The spread between Newman lump - Newman fines is 160.0 today, down 11.0 from the previous day; PB fines - Super Special fines is 121.0, up 1.0 [16]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Date: March 13, 2026 [1] Group 2: Futures Contracts - I05 contract: Today's closing price is 795.5, up 8.0 from the previous day; I05 - I09 spread is 29.0, unchanged from the previous day [3] - I09 contract: Today's closing price is 766.5, up 8.0 from the previous day; I09 - I01 spread is 17.0, down 1.0 from the previous day [3] - I01 contract: Today's closing price is 749.5, up 9.0 from the previous day; I01 - I05 spread is -46.0, up 1.0 from the previous day [3] Group 3: Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines (Kafeng), BRBF, Newman fines, etc., the report provides today's price, previous day's price, change, delivery cost, today's basis, previous day's basis, and basis change [7] Group 4: Basis Charts - The report presents basis charts for different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. [9][10][11] Group 5: Contract Adjustments - Newly added 4 deliverable varieties (Benxi iron concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian iron concentrate) with a brand premium of 0 starting from the I2202 contract [12] - Adjusted brand premiums for existing varieties, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest being 0 [12] - Modified quality differences and quality premiums for substitutes, including adjusting the allowable range of iron grade and setting allowable ranges for other elements [12] - Introduced dynamic adjustment of the premium value for the iron element index (X), with different calculation methods based on the average settlement price of the nearest delivery month contract [12] - Added 4 new deliverable brands (Taigang iron concentrate, Magang iron concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) with a brand premium of 0 [12] - The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to contracts starting from I2312 [13] Group 6: Variety Spreads - The report shows the spread data between different iron ore varieties, such as PB lump - PB fines, Newman lump - Newman fines, etc., including today's value, previous day's value, and change [14] - It also presents various spread charts for different types of iron ore spreads [15][16][17][18][19][20] Group 7: Research Team - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their positions, experience, and qualification numbers provided [23]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Light Period Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated March 10, 2026, from Everbright Futures Research [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 futures contracts are 784.5, 758.0, and 741.0 respectively, with changes of 12.5, 11.5, and 12.0 compared to the previous day [3] - The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 are 26.5, 17.0, and -43.5 respectively, with changes of 1.0, -0.5, and -0.5 compared to the previous day [3] Group 3: Basis Data - The basis data of various iron ore varieties are presented, including prices, changes, and basis values. For example, the basis of Carajás fines is 81 today, down 3 from the previous day [7] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) are added, with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [13] - The brand premiums of existing varieties are adjusted, with only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines having a premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest having 0 premium [13] - The allowable ranges of iron grade and other quality indicators are adjusted, and the quality premiums and discounts are more detailed [13] - Four new deliverable brands (Taigang concentrate, Magang concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) are added, with brand premiums of 0 [13] - The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to contracts from I2312 onwards [14] Group 5: Variety Spread Information - The spreads between different iron ore varieties are provided, such as the spread between PB lump and PB fines is 114.0 today, unchanged from the previous day [15] Group 6: Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with their own professional experience and qualifications [24]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current oil prices have seen a certain increase and factored in a high geopolitical premium. In the short term, the supply gap from Iran remains, but considering the expected over - performance of Venezuela's production increase and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. - For methanol, the downward momentum persists, but the negative factors are weakening at the margin, so the downward space is limited. The main strategy is to go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. - For urea, the current situation of the internal - external price difference has opened the import window, and with the expected improvement in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are approaching, so it is recommended to short - allocate [9]. - For rubber, it is recommended to trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, it is advisable to open new positions or continue holding positions by buying the NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [15]. - For PVC, the overall fundamentals are poor. Although the comprehensive corporate profit is at a neutral level, the supply reduction is small, production is at a historical high, domestic demand is in the off - season, and the only short - term support is the short - term rush for exports due to the cancellation of export tax rebates [18]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. The supply of pure benzene is still abundant, and the port inventory of styrene is continuously increasing. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, it is advisable to gradually take profits [21]. - For polyethylene, the futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. - For polypropylene, the futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. - For PX, the current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. - For PTA, the supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term, and the demand for polyester and chemical fibers is expected to recover as it exits the off - season. The inventory - building cycle is about to end, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long on dips [33]. - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the port inventory pressure is large. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under the pressure of inventory building and high operation. The valuation is currently moderately low year - on - year, and there is a risk of a rebound [35]. Summary by Directory Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 6.00 yuan/barrel, a decline of 1.23%, at 483.60 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined products: high - sulfur fuel oil closed up 53.00 yuan/ton, a rise of 1.81%, at 2987.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil closed down 4.00 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.12%, at 3460.00 yuan/ton. The U.S. EIA weekly data showed that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by 15.99 million barrels to 435.80 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 3.81%; SPR replenishment was 0.00 million barrels to 415.44 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.00%; gasoline inventories decreased by 1.01 million barrels to 254.83 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.40%; diesel inventories increased by 0.25 million barrels to 120.35 million barrels, a month - on - month increase of 0.21%; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.11 million barrels to 23.04 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 0.46%; aviation kerosene inventories decreased by 1.44 million barrels to 42.34 million barrels, a month - on - month decrease of 3.29% [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Take profits on rallies and focus on mid - term layout [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices: Jiangsu changed by - 37 yuan/ton, Lunan by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 20 yuan/ton, Hebei by 20 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 37.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by (55.00) yuan/ton, at 2210 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 72 yuan [5]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Go long on dips from a mid - term perspective [6]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot price changes: Shandong changed by 10 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 30 yuan/ton, Hubei by 10 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by 10 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was reported at - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 2 yuan/ton, at 1836 yuan/ton [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Short - allocate [9]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber futures increased in volume and price, with a bullish technical pattern. Thai natural rubber spot prices generally followed the increase, but the spot price increases of butadiene and butadiene rubber were relatively small. Bulls and bears presented different views. Bulls were optimistic due to macro - level expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 12, 2026, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 44.24%, 16.70 percentage points lower than the previous week and 18.19 percentage points lower than the same period last year. The operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 62.47%, 10.95 percentage points lower than the previous week and 11.01 percentage points lower than the same period last year. As of February 8, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 129.6 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.5 tons, an increase of 1.2%. As of February 24, 2026, the natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 6.28 tons to 67.21 tons compared with before the Spring Festival [12][13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Trade short - term on the disk, set stop - losses, and enter and exit quickly. If RU is below 17,000, be cautious. For hedging, buy the NR main contract and short RU2609 [15]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract fell 108 yuan, at 4855 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4680 (- 40) yuan/ton, the basis was - 175 (+ 68) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 137 (- 6) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2300 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 735 (- 50) yuan/ton, ethylene was 705 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 631 (+ 2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 80.1%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; among them, the calcium carbide method was 81.6%, a month - on - month increase of 0.8%; the ethylene method was 76.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1%. The overall downstream operating rate was 13%, a month - on - month decrease of 28.5%. The in - factory inventory was 31.2 tons (+ 2.4), and the social inventory was 125.4 tons (+ 2.7) [17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The fundamentals are poor, with strong supply and weak demand in the domestic market [18]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6108 yuan/ton, with no change. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6152 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton. The pure benzene basis was - 44 yuan/ton, narrowing by 22 yuan/ton. In the spot - futures market, the spot price of styrene was 7575 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton; the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7578 yuan/ton, a decrease of 24 yuan/ton; the basis was - 86 yuan/ton, weakening by 1 yuan/ton; the BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 12.5 yuan/ton; the profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a decrease of 44.125 yuan/ton; the EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, narrowing by 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, an increase of 0.68%. The inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 tons, an increase of 0.80 tons. The weighted operating rate of three S products in the demand side was 40.79%, an increase of 0.23%. The PS operating rate was 55.20%, a decrease of 0.40%; the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, an increase of 2.98%; the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a decrease of 1.70% [20]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high, and the upward valuation repair space is shrinking. As the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, gradually take profits [21]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6668 yuan/ton, a decrease of 133 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6535 yuan/ton, a decrease of 100 yuan/ton. The basis was - 133 yuan/ton, strengthening by 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.27%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 37.97 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.67 tons, and the inventory of traders was 2.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 74 yuan/ton, narrowing by 11 yuan/ton [23]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has declined. The "moderate production increase" of OPEC+ has led to an upward - trending crude oil price. The PE valuation still has downward space, and the pressure on the disk from the historical high of warehouse receipts has eased. The supply in the first half of 2026 is relatively stable, and the demand is in the off - season [24]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: From a fundamental perspective, the closing price of the main contract was 6675 yuan/ton, a decrease of 60 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6705 yuan/ton, a decrease of 30 yuan/ton. The basis was 45 yuan/ton, strengthening by 30 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.01%. In terms of weekly inventory, the inventory of production enterprises was 41.58 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.49 tons, the inventory of traders was 18.32 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.02 tons, and the port inventory was 6.37 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.03 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.24%. The LL - PP spread was - 7 yuan/ton, narrowing by 73 yuan/ton. The PP5 - 9 spread was - 17 yuan/ton, widening by 10 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The futures price has risen. The EIA monthly report predicts a slight reduction in global oil inventories, and the supply - surplus situation may ease. There are no production capacity expansion plans in the first half of 2026, and the demand is seasonally volatile. In the context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high, and it is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [27]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX05 contract fell 50 yuan, at 7382 yuan. The PX CFR increased by 2 US dollars, at 931 US dollars. The basis was 47 yuan (+ 56) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 5 - 7 spread was - 12 yuan (- 14). In terms of PX load, the Chinese load was 92.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.4%; the Asian load was 84.9%, a month - on - month increase of 1.2%. In terms of equipment, there were few domestic changes. The maintenance plan of Jinling Petrochemical was postponed, and Zhejiang Petrochemical planned to shut down one production line for maintenance in March. Overseas, a plant in Kuwait restarted. The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 33.9 tons of PX to China in the first and middle ten - days of February, a year - on - year increase of 12.4 tons. In terms of inventory, the inventory at the end of December was 465 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, PXN was 313 US dollars (- 7), South Korean PX - MX was 158 US dollars (+ 6), and the naphtha crack spread was 97 US dollars (+ 4) [29]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The current load is high, and downstream PTA has many maintenance plans, so it is expected to maintain a stock - building pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is good, and there are opportunities to go long on dips following crude oil [30]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract fell 52 yuan, at 5260 yuan. The East China spot price fell 50 yuan, at 5235 yuan. The basis was - 63 yuan (0), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 10 yuan (- 24). The PTA load was 76.6%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8%. In terms of equipment, one unit of Yisheng New Materials was operating at 50% capacity, and one unit was restarted. The downstream load was 79.7%, a month - on - month increase of 2.1%. In terms of equipment, multiple units of Xin Fengming were under maintenance, a 25 - ton bottle chip unit in East China was under maintenance, and multiple units of filament and staple fiber were restarted. The terminal texturing load increased by 3% to 8%, and the loom load increased by 12% to 12%. In terms of inventory, the social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 24 was 250.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 23.9 tons. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee fell 54 yuan to 362 yuan, and the disk processing fee fell 20 yuan to 417 yuan [32]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The supply will maintain high - level maintenance in the short term,

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The global corn supply pressure is weakening, and the US corn is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased, and the price of Brazilian imports in July is 2,206 yuan. The spot price of corn in the Northeast is relatively stable, while that in North China is weakening. The 05 corn contract is expected to have limited short - term upside, and there may be a slight decline in March [4][7]. - The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively tight, the price of corn starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 05 starch contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. - The US corn supply pressure is weakening, and it is expected to oscillate strongly at the bottom. The corn spot price in North China has risen, and that in the Northeast is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. There will still be slight selling pressure in the Northeast in March, and the 05 corn contract will decline [9]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Data - **Futures**: For corn futures contracts (C2601, C2605, C2509), the closing prices are 2310, 2342, and 2365 respectively, with price increases of 10, 10, and 11, and price increase rates of 0.43%, 0.43%, and 0.47%. For corn starch futures contracts (CS2601, CS2605, CS2509), the closing prices are 2653, 2673, and 2699 respectively, with price increases of 10, 10, and 12, and price increase rates of 0.38%, 0.37%, and 0.44% [2]. - **Spot and Basis**: The spot prices of corn vary in different regions, with prices in Qinggang, Songyuan Jiajiaji, etc. being 2150, 2190 yuan. The spot prices of starch in different regions such as Longfeng and COFCO are 2750, 2700 yuan. The basis of corn and starch also varies in different regions [2]. - **Spreads**: The spreads of corn and starch in different periods and cross - varieties are presented, for example, the C01 - C05 spread is - 32, and the CS09 - C09 spread is 334 [2]. 2. Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn is oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The spot price in the Northeast is relatively stable, while that in North China is weakening. The price difference between wheat and corn has decreased, and the cost - effectiveness of corn has weakened. The domestic breeding demand will decline in March. The 05 corn contract is expected to have limited short - term upside, and there may be a slight decline in March [4][7]. - **Starch**: The supply of corn in Shandong is relatively tight, the price of corn starch in Shandong is around 2,820 yuan, and the spot price in the Northeast is stable. The inventory of corn starch has increased this week. The current starch price depends on the corn price and downstream inventory. The spot price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 05 starch contract is expected to oscillate at a high level in the short term [8]. 3. Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 05 US corn has support at 430 cents per bushel. Short the 05 corn contract lightly when the price is high [10]. - **Arbitrage**: Expand the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts when the price is low [11]. 4. Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put option strategy with rolling operations [12]. 5. Relevant Attachments - The attachments include figures such as the North Port corn closing price, the basis of the corn 05 contract, the corn 5 - 9 spread, the corn starch 5 - 9 spread, the basis of the corn starch 05 contract, and the spread of the corn starch 05 contract [16][18][20][22][23]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pre - holiday urea price remains firm, with the 05 contract being relatively resistant to decline. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the industry's inventory accumulation after the holiday. The 05&09 spread may continue to oscillate strongly due to the optimistic expectation of peak - season demand. The industry profit is improving but the upside may be limited due to the overall loose supply - demand situation [6][8][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The 05 contract of urea rebounded this week, reaching a new high on Thursday. The UR2605 contract closed at 1843 yuan/ton on Thursday. The pre - holiday urea market is strong. Although the demand is ending, the downstream replenishment is active, the factory orders are good and the inventory is controllable. The 05 contract may resist decline after the holiday supported by the spring - plowing demand [6] - The spot prices in various regions are firm, with the downstream actively replenishing. The factory's offer prices are gradually rising, and the market sentiment is positive. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong is about 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton [8] - The basis of the 05 contract in Shandong and Henan oscillated and declined this week. As of Thursday, the basis of Shandong's 05 contract was about - 43 yuan/ton, and that of Henan's was about - 33 yuan/ton. The UR03&05 spread was about - 19 yuan/ton, and the UR05&09 spread was about 40 yuan/ton, and the latter may continue to oscillate strongly [8] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts has been falling from a high level recently. As the warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled in February, the number will further decline. As of Thursday, there were about 10,949 urea warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Huilong Group, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [9] Device Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea device maintenance volume was about 143,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons from the previous period. The coal - based device maintenance volume was about 93,500 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, and the gas - based device maintenance volume was about 49,700 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The supply pressure may continue to recover [12] - As of February 12, the domestic urea operating rate was about 90.59%, a rise of about 1.45% from the previous period. The weekly urea output was about 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 23,900 tons from last week, and the average daily output was about 213,300 tons, a slight increase of 3,400 tons. The inventory device load may further increase [14] Demand Side - The compound fertilizer operating rate decreased significantly this week. As of February 12, it was about 36.19%, a decline of 5.6% from last week. The profit was generally stable. The inventory increased by 5.02% to about 787,100 tons. During the Spring Festival, the load will remain low and then gradually recover, which will put pressure on soda ash [15][16] - The melamine operating rate increased slightly to about 60.77% as of February 12, and the output also increased slightly. The resumption of some devices drove the load to rebound, and the market fluctuation is relatively limited due to sufficient pending orders [18] Inventory and Pre - orders - As of February 11, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 834,700 tons, a decrease of about 83,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of about 9.12%. The port inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons to about 166,000 tons. The pre - order days increased to about 11.12 days. After the holiday, the inventory may rise and put pressure on the price [20] Industry Profit - As of February 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 82 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry profit was about 291 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the natural - gas profit was about - 208 yuan/ton. The industry profit has been improving and may continue to improve after the holiday, but the upside is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [23]