1. Report Industry Investment Rating No related content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has dissipated and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. A low - buying and high - selling range strategy is maintained, but it's advisable to wait and see for now to verify OPEC's export price - supporting willingness [2]. - For methanol, high port inventories suppress prices. Overseas production remains high, and with high coal prices squeezing profit margins, corporate production has slightly declined. Demand is weak, so prices may fall further, and it's recommended to wait and see [3]. - For urea, the market is sensitive to positive news due to large domestic - foreign price differentials and low domestic prices. Domestic demand is weak, and supply is high. New export policies may improve the situation, and prices are expected to bottom out with limited downside [6]. - For rubber, a short - term long - biased trading strategy is recommended, and partial hedging positions can be established by buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [11]. - For PVC, the supply - demand situation is poor with high supply and weak demand. Export expectations are weakening, and it's advisable to consider short - selling on price rallies in the medium term [14][15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the supply of styrene is under pressure, but the BZN spread has room for upward repair. Port inventories are decreasing, and styrene prices may stop falling temporarily [18]. - For polyethylene, although the price may have bottomed out, high warehouse receipt volumes suppress the market. With seasonal demand picking up, prices may remain range - bound at a low level [21]. - For polypropylene, there is high supply pressure and weak demand. High inventory levels persist, and the market may be supported when the supply - surplus situation changes in Q1 next year [24]. - For PX, it is expected to see a slight inventory build - up in November, but there is support from aromatics blending and long - term supply - demand. There may be opportunities for valuation to rise in the medium term [25]. - For PTA, supply is increasing, and demand is facing challenges. However, there may be opportunities for PTA to strengthen driven by an increase in PXN in the medium term [27][28]. - For ethylene glycol, domestic supply is high, imports are rising, and inventories are building up. It's recommended to short - sell on price rallies [30]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Data**: INE's main crude oil futures closed down 2.00 yuan/barrel, a 0.43% decline, at 458.80 yuan/barrel. High - sulfur fuel oil futures fell 42.00 yuan/ton, a 1.62% decline, to 2558.00 yuan/ton, while low - sulfur fuel oil futures rose 10.00 yuan/ton, a 0.31% increase, to 3247.00 yuan/ton. In the Fujeirah port, gasoline inventories decreased by 1.11 million barrels to 6.31 million barrels, a 14.96% decline; diesel inventories increased by 0.02 million barrels to 2.85 million barrels, a 0.56% increase; fuel oil inventories decreased by 0.25 million barrels to 10.65 million barrels, a 2.33% decline; total refined oil inventories decreased by 1.35 million barrels to 19.81 million barrels, a 6.37% decline [1]. Methanol - **Market Data**: The Taicang price was down 10, Lunan was down 5, and Inner Mongolia was up 7.5. The 01 contract on the futures market was up 1 yuan, at 2030 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 28. The 1 - 5 spread was - 7, at - 123 [2]. Urea - **Market Data**: Shandong's spot price was up 10, Henan was up 10, and Hubei remained stable. The 01 contract on the futures market was unchanged at 1662 yuan, with a basis of - 62. The 1 - 5 spread was up 1, at - 74 [5]. Rubber - **Market Data**: Rubber prices rebounded. Typhoons affected rainfall in Thailand. The expiration of November warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Exchange led to positive market expectations. As of November 13, 2025, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong was 64.70%, down 0.84 percentage points from the previous week but up 5.70 percentage points from the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires was 74.37%, down 0.08 percentage points from the previous week and down 4.38 percentage points from the same period last year. New export orders were not expected to be high. As of November 9, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 105.63 tons, up 0.03 tons, a 0.03% increase. The total inventory of dark - colored rubber was 66.43 tons, a 0.97% increase, and the total inventory of light - colored rubber was 39.21 tons, a 1.52% decrease. The total inventory in Qingdao increased by 0.24 tons to 43.87 tons [9]. PVC - **Market Data**: The PVC01 contract fell 81 yuan to 4520 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4480 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan/ton, with a basis of - 40 yuan/ton, up 51 yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 319 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was 2450 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The overall operating rate of PVC was 78.5%, down 2.2%; the calcium - carbide method was 80.8%, down 0.4%; the ethylene method was 73.3%, down 6.4%. The overall downstream operating rate was 49.5%, down 0.1%. Factory inventories were 32.2 tons, down 1.2 tons, and social inventories were 102.8 tons, down 1.3 tons [13]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Data**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5420 yuan/ton, unchanged. The closing price of the active contract was 5467 yuan/ton, unchanged, with a basis of - 47 yuan/ton, an increase of 80 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 6500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The closing price of the active contract was 6465 yuan/ton, down 31 yuan/ton, with a basis of 35 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The BZN spread was 110.75 yuan/ton, up 10.13 yuan/ton. The profit of the non - integrated styrene plant was - 471.8 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton. The 1 - 2 spread of styrene was 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 69.25%, up 2.31%. Jiangsu port inventories decreased by 2.65 tons to 14.83 tons. The weighted operating rate of the three S products was 41.00%, up 0.21%. The PS operating rate was 55.40%, up 1.90%; the EPS operating rate was 51.63%, down 2.32%; the ABS operating rate was 71.80%, up 0.20% [17]. Polyethylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6785 yuan/ton, down 58 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6900 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 115 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 82.24%, down 0.10%. Production enterprise inventories were 52.92 tons, up 3.90 tons, and trader inventories were 5.00 tons, down 0.01 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 44.49%, down 0.36%. The 1 - 5 spread of LLDPE was - 67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8 yuan/ton [20]. Polypropylene - **Market Data**: The closing price of the main contract was 6392 yuan/ton, down 75 yuan/ton. The spot price was 6500 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton, with a basis of 108 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 78.59%, up 0.33%. Production enterprise inventories were 62 tons, up 2.01 tons, trader inventories were 21.73 tons, down 1.13 tons, and port inventories were 6.69 tons, up 0.23 tons. The average downstream operating rate was 53.28%, up 0.14%. The LLDPE - PP spread was 393 yuan/ton, an increase of 17 yuan/ton [22][23]. PX - **Market Data**: The PX01 contract fell 28 yuan to 6768 yuan. The PX CFR price fell 4 dollars to 827 dollars. The basis was - 14 yuan, down 1 yuan, and the 1 - 3 spread was - 14 yuan, up 10 yuan. China's PX operating rate was 86.8%, down 3%; Asian operating rate was 78.5%, down 1.7%. Some plants had maintenance or planned to reduce production. PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. In early November, South Korea exported 14.5 tons of PX to China, an increase of 1.8 tons year - on - year. At the end of September, inventories were 402.6 tons, up 10.8 tons month - on - month. PXN was 260 dollars, up 5 dollars; South Korea's PX - MX was 100 dollars, up 1 dollar; the naphtha crack spread was 102 dollars, down 4 dollars [24]. PTA - **Market Data**: The PTA01 contract fell 22 yuan to 4670 yuan. The East China spot price was down 5 yuan/ton to 4610 yuan. The basis was - 72 yuan, up 1 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 56 yuan, up 8 yuan. The PTA operating rate was 75.7%, down 0.7%. Some plants had maintenance or increased production. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. As of November 7, social inventories (excluding credit warehouse receipts) were 222.7 tons, up 2 tons. The spot processing fee was up 15 yuan to 180 yuan, and the futures processing fee was down 4 yuan to 230 yuan [26]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Data**: The EG01 contract fell 31 yuan to 3907 yuan. The East China spot price was down 28 yuan to 3952 yuan. The basis was 30 yuan, down 12 yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 90 yuan, down 5 yuan. The supply - side operating rate was 71.6%, down 0.9%. Some plants had production adjustments. The downstream operating rate was 90.5%, down 0.8%. The expected import volume was 11.1 tons, and the export volume from East China on November 17 was 0.4 tons. Port inventories were 73.2 tons, up 7.1 tons. The profit of naphtha - based production was - 785 yuan, domestic ethylene - based production was - 614 yuan, and coal - based production was 150 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 735 dollars, and the price of steam coal in Yulin decreased to 650 yuan [29].

| 油脂产业期现日报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年11月17日 | | | | 壬泽辉 | | Z0019938 | | 豆油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跃 | 涨跌幅 | | 现价 江苏一级 | | 8590 | 8560 | | 30 | 0.35% | | 期价 Y2601 | | 8256 | 8316 | | -60 | -0.72% | | 墓差 Y2601 | | 334 | 244 | | 90 | 36.89% | | 现货墓差报价 江苏1月 | | 01+270 | 01+270 | | 0 | - | | 仓单 | | 24993 | 24993 | | 0 | 0.00% | | 棕榈油 | | | | | | | | 11月14日 | | | 11月13日 | | 张跌 | 张跌幅 | | 现价 广东24度 | | 8590 | 8570 | | 20 | 0.23% | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - IC2512 has a discount of 88.05 points, and IM2512 has a discount of 116.58 points, indicating a bearish signal [3] - The previous day, the two markets rebounded after hitting bottom. The high - dividend sector continued to strengthen, while the technology and communication sectors declined and adjusted, showing market divergence, with a neutral outlook [3] - The margin trading balance was 2487.1 billion yuan, an increase of 400 million yuan, indicating a bullish signal [3] - IH2512 has a discount of 1.5 points, and IF2512 has a discount of 17.91 points, showing a neutral situation [3] - The order of performance is IH > IC > IF > IM. IM, IH, IF, and IC are above the 20 - day moving average, indicating a bullish signal [3] - The long positions of IF and IH main contracts increased, while those of IC main contracts decreased, indicating a bullish signal [3] - Currently, the Shanghai Composite Index is fluctuating around the 4000 mark. Benefiting from the good news that the two US parties will end the government shutdown, the global stock markets rebounded. The high - dividend sector strengthened, and the technology and growth sectors declined and adjusted. The overall market is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to appropriately reduce positions on rallies [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Index Futures Quotes - For the Shanghai 50 Index (IH), IH2511 had a contract price of 3,046.80 with a 0.38% increase, IH2512 had a contract price of 3,042.80 with a 0.34% increase, IH2603 had a contract price of 3,037.60 with a 0.25% increase, and IH2606 had a contract price of 3,030.00 with a 0.24% increase [4] - For the CSI 300 Index (IF), IF2511 had a contract price of 4,645.00 with a - 0.03% decrease, IF2512 had a contract price of 4,628.00 with a - 0.09% decrease, IF2603 had a contract price of 4,601.00 with a - 0.07% decrease, and IF2606 had a contract price of 4,558.20 with a - 0.08% decrease [4] - For the CSI 500 Index (IC), IC2511 had a contract price of 7,224.00 with a - 0.37% decrease, IC2512 had a contract price of 7,155.20 with a - 0.41% decrease, IC2603 had a contract price of 6,982.40 with a - 0.39% decrease, and IC2606 had a contract price of 6,785.80 with a - 0.45% decrease [4] - For the CSI 1000 Index (IM), IM2511 had a contract price of 7,458.20 with a - 0.38% decrease, IM2512 had a contract price of 7,369.80 with a - 0.43% decrease, IM2603 had a contract price of 7,148.60 with a - 0.42% decrease, and IM2606 had a contract price of 6,919.80 with a - 0.54% decrease [4] Basis and Spread - Provided historical data on the basis and spread of the Shanghai 50 Index and the CSI 500 Index from 2021 to 2025 [7][10] Spot Market Important Index Daily Returns - The Shanghai Composite Index had a - 0.07% change, the Shanghai 50 Index had a 0.32% increase, the CSI 300 Index had a - 0.13% decrease, the Wind All - A Index had a - 0.38% decrease, the CSI 500 Index had a - 0.66% decrease, the Shenzhen Component Index had a - 0.36% decrease, the STAR 50 Index had a - 0.58% decrease, and the ChiNext Index had a - 0.39% decrease [13] Style Index Daily Returns - Different style indices such as the 300 Cycle Index, 300 Non - Cycle Index, Low - P/E Index, etc., showed different daily returns, ranging from - 1.00% to 0.36% [16][20] Market Structure AH - Share Premium - Provided historical data on the AH - share premium index from February 2025 to November 2025 [23] Price - to - Earnings (PE) Ratio - Showed the historical PE ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2004 to 2025 [26] Price - to - Book (PB) Ratio - Presented the historical PB ratios of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2004 to 2025 [28] Market Funding Stock Market Fund Inflow - Provided historical data on A - share fund net inflow and the CSI 300 Index from 2021 to 2025 [30] Margin Trading Balance - Showed the historical margin trading balance and the CSI 300 Index from 2021 to 2025 [32] Northbound Capital Inflow - Provided historical data on the net inflow of northbound capital from 2021 to 2024 [34] Capital Cost - Showed the historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week rates from February 2025 to November 2025 [40] Market Sentiment Trading Activity - Provided historical data on the turnover rates of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext indices from 2022 to 2025 [43][44][46][47] Publicly - Offered Hybrid Fund Positions - Provided related data on publicly - offered hybrid fund positions, with data sourced from Wind [48] Other Indicators Index Dividend Yield and 10 - Year Treasury Yield - Showed the historical data of the dividend yields of the Shanghai 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 indices and the 10 - year treasury yield from 2015 to 2025 [52] RMB Exchange Rate - Provided the historical exchange rate data of the US dollar against the RMB from 2021 to 2025 [54] New Account Openings and Shanghai Composite Index Tracking - Related to the tracking of new account openings and the Shanghai Composite Index, specific data not detailed [55] Newly - Established Fund Scale Changes - Included the changes in the newly - established scales of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds, specific data not detailed [57][59][61]

光期研究 光期黑色：铁矿石基差及价差监测日报 2025 年 1 1 月 1 2 日 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 1.1 合约价差 | 期货合约 | 今日收盘价 | 上日收盘价 | 变化 | 合约价差 | 今日价差 | 上日价差 | 变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | I05 | 737.0 | 742.0 | -5.0 | I05-I09 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 0.0 | | I09 | 717.0 | 722.0 | -5.0 | I09-I01 | -46.0 | -43.0 | -3.0 | | I01 | 763.0 | 765.0 | -2.0 | I01-I05 | 26.0 | 23.0 | 3.0 | 图表1：05-09合约价差（单位：元/吨） 图表2：01-05合约价差（单位：元/吨） p 2 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 01 2101-210 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Iron ore is expected to experience a high - level decline due to the realization of inventory accumulation pressure [2][4]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil are expected to have wide - range fluctuations [2][6][7]. - Ferrosilicon is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, while silicomanganese is expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to the price - supporting sentiment from the ore end [2][11]. - Coke is expected to follow the market downward [2][15]. - Coking coal is expected to see a valuation decline due to the repeated supply expectations [2][16]. - Logs are expected to fluctuate repeatedly [2][18]. 3. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - **Fundamental Data**: The futures price of iron ore closed at 763.0 yuan/ton, down 2.0 yuan/ton with a decline of 0.26%. The open interest decreased by 11,250 hands. Spot prices remained stable. The basis and some spreads changed slightly [4]. - **News**: Deputy Premier Liu Guozhong will attend the commissioning ceremony of the Simandou Iron Ore Project in Guinea [4]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - **Fundamental Data**: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,025 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and HC2601 was 3,242 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan/ton (0.03%). Open interest and trading volume changed. Spot prices in different regions had minor fluctuations. Basis and spreads also changed [7]. - **News**: In October 2025, China's imported steel decreased in quantity and price. Steel production, inventory, and apparent demand data in November and October showed various trends. The government supported commercial real estate REITs issuance [8][9]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese declined. Spot prices of ferrosilicon increased slightly, and the price of manganese ore rose. Basis, near - far month spreads, and cross - variety spreads changed [11]. - **News**: There were price quotes and tender information for ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in November. From January to October 2025, the national silicomanganese production was 903.96 million tons, with Inner Mongolia accounting for 48.5%, and there were new capacity plans [11][13]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0 for both, indicating a neutral trend [14]. Coke and Coking Coal - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of coking coal (JM2601) and coke (J2601) decreased by 4.1% and 3.4% respectively. Spot prices were mostly stable, with some changes in basis and spreads [16]. - **News**: The National Development and Reform Commission held an energy supply guarantee meeting for the heating season [16]. - **Trend Intensity**: - 1 for both, indicating a bearish trend [17]. Logs - **Fundamental Data**: Futures prices of different log contracts decreased slightly. Trading volume and open interest showed different trends. Spot prices of various log types were mostly stable [19]. - **News**: China decided to lift the suspension of importing US logs from November 10, 2025 [21]. - **Trend Intensity**: 0, indicating a neutral trend [21].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report Date: November 11, 2025 [1] 2. Futures Contract Price and Spread 2.1 Futures Contract Price - I05 closed at 742.0 yuan/ton today, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - I09 closed at 722.0 yuan/ton today, unchanged from the previous day [3] - I01 closed at 765.0 yuan/ton today, up 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3] 2.2 Futures Contract Spread - The spread between I05 and I09 was 20.0 yuan/ton today, up 2.0 yuan from the previous day [3] - The spread between I09 and I01 was -43.0 yuan/ton today, down 4.5 yuan from the previous day [3] - The spread between I01 and I05 was 23.0 yuan/ton today, up 2.5 yuan from the previous day [3] 3. Basis Data 3.1 Basis Data of Different Iron Ore Varieties - For example, the basis of Carajás fines was 71 yuan/ton today, down 5 yuan from the previous day [5] - The basis of BRBF was 78 yuan/ton today, down 2 yuan from the previous day [5] 3.2 Changes in Basis - Most varieties showed a decrease in basis compared to the previous day, while the basis of Wugang Standard fines increased by 1 yuan [5] 4. Changes in Deliverable Brands and Rules 4.1 Addition of Deliverable Brands - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) were added starting from the I2202 contract, with a brand premium of 0 [10] - Four more brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Wugang Standard fines, SP10 fines) were added as deliverable brands, with a brand premium of 0 [10] 4.2 Adjustment of Brand Premiums - Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, while the rest of the deliverable brands have a brand premium of 0 yuan/ton [10] 4.3 Adjustment of Substitute Quality Differences and Premiums - The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted to ≥56%, and the allowable ranges of silica, alumina, phosphorus, and sulfur were set [10] - An X value was introduced to dynamically adjust the premium of iron element indicators, with different calculation methods based on the average settlement price of the nearest delivery month contract [10] 5. Variety Spread 5.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread between PB lump and PB fines was 102.0 yuan/ton today, down 5.0 yuan from the previous day [12] - The spread between Carajás fines and Newman fines was 106.0 yuan/ton today, down 2.0 yuan from the previous day [12] 5.2 Variety Spread Changes - Most variety spreads showed a decreasing trend compared to the previous day, while some spreads such as PB fines - Super Special fines increased [12] 6. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional qualifications [23]

生猪：现货矛盾继续累积，短期震荡 | 周小球 | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0001891 | | | zhouxiaoqiu@gtht.com | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 吴昊 | | | 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0018592 | | wuhao8@gtht.com | | | | 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | | | | | | 生猪基本面数据 | | | | | | | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 比 同 | | | 价 格 | 河南现货 | 元/吨 | | 12080 | | 100 | | | | 四川现货 | 元/吨 | | 11600 | | 100 | | | | 广东现货 | 元/吨 | | 12560 | | 200 | | | | | 单 位 | | 价 格 | | 同 比 | | | | 生猪2601 | 元/吨 | | 11955 | | 90 | | | | 生猪2603 | 元/吨 | | 11555 | | 90 | | | 期 货 | 生猪2605 | 元/吨 | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the reports. 2. Report Core Views 粕类产业 - The domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are at a high level, but the cost - side support is strong. The downward space is limited. The near - month shipment crushing margin is negative, and there is still a gap of more than 8 million tons from November to January. With the strengthening support of US soybeans, it is expected to be difficult to purchase cheap soybeans in the future, and the support for soybean meal will increase [1]. 油脂产业 - Palm oil: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures stopped falling and rebounded. It is expected to rebound to the 4200 - 4250 ringgit range in the short - term, and then face resistance. The Dalian palm oil futures market will maintain a volatile rebound trend, and it is expected to rise to the 8800 - 8900 yuan range. - Soybean oil: The US biodiesel policy is unclear. CBOT soybean is near the technical pressure level. CBOT soybean oil has limited upside and will maintain a narrow - range shock in the short - term. Domestically, the supply is sufficient, the demand is weak, and the basis quotation fluctuates little [2]. 生猪产业 - The spot price has declined recently, the secondary fattening has increased again, the spot supply is normal, and the slaughter enterprises have little difficulty in purchasing. The pig price fluctuates mainly. The overall slaughter progress will slow down in November, which may boost the pig price. The market is in a range - bound pattern, and the downward space is limited. It is recommended to operate cautiously and be bullish on the single - side. The 3 - 7 reverse spread can continue to be held [4]. 玉米 industry - In the supply side, the supply in the Northeast is sufficient, and the price is stable due to farmers' reluctance to sell and state reserve support. In the North China, the purchase and sale are average, and the price is also stable. In the demand side, the enthusiasm for building inventories in the trading link is average, the deep - processing inventory is stable, and the feed inventory is replenished due to being at a low level, but it is still mainly for rigid demand, and the long - term orders are few. The corn supply rhythm is okay currently, the market is in a low - level shock in the short - term, but there is still selling pressure in November [7]. 白糖 industry - The expected increase in supply surplus, weakening energy prices, and good weather in major producing areas have led to a weak trend in raw sugar prices. The domestic sugar price is also under pressure, but there is significant cost support below 5400. The spot market is tepid, and the market maintains a low - level shock [12]. 棉花 industry - The new cotton cost supports the cotton price, but there is also hedging pressure for the price to rise. The downstream demand is weak, but the finished product inventory pressure is not large, and textile enterprises have demand for purchasing cotton raw materials at low prices. The cotton price may fluctuate in a range in the short - term [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - In the short - term, the egg market has an oversupply pressure. The price may be in a dilemma of rising or falling, but with the slow recovery of demand, it may gradually rise. The egg price is expected to fluctuate widely at the bottom, with a reference range of 2900 - 3300 [16]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 粕类产业 - **Soybean meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 3060 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.99%) from the previous day. The futures price of M2601 is 3068 yuan, down 2 yuan (-0.16%). The basis of M2601 is - 8 yuan, up 35 yuan (81.40%) [1]. - **Rapeseed meal**: The current price in Jiangsu is 2550 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The futures price of RM2601 is 2549 yuan, up 12 yuan (0.47%). The basis of RM2601 is 1 yuan, down 12 yuan (-92.31%) [1]. - **Soybean**: The current price of Harbin soybeans is 3920 yuan, unchanged. The futures price of the main soybean contract is 4146 yuan, up 23 yuan (0.56%). The basis of the main soybean contract is - 226 yuan, down 23 yuan (-11.33%) [1]. 油脂产业 - **Palm oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's first - grade palm oil is 8390 yuan, up 10 yuan (0.12%). The futures price of Y2601 is 8188 yuan, up 50 yuan (0.61%). The basis of Y2601 is 202 yuan, down 40 yuan (-16.53%) [2]. - **Soybean oil**: The current price of Guangdong's 24 - degree palm oil is 8540 yuan, down 10 yuan (-0.12%). The futures price of P2601 is 8732 yuan, up 142 yuan (1.65%). The basis of P2601 is - 192 yuan, down 152 yuan (-380.00%) [2]. - **Rapeseed oil**: The current price of Jiangsu's third - grade rapeseed oil is 9780 yuan, up 30 yuan (0.31%). The futures price of OI601 is 9564 yuan, up 157 yuan (1.67%). The basis of OI601 is 216 yuan, down 127 yuan (-37.03%) [2]. 生猪 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the main contract of live pigs 2605 is 12025 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan (-0.12%); the price of live pigs 2601 is 11940 yuan, down 5 yuan (-0.04%); the 1 - 5 spread is - 82 yuan, up 10 yuan (10.53%) [4]. - **Spot prices**: The spot price in Henan is 11900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; in Shandong is 12020 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan; in Sichuan is 11450 yuan/ton, unchanged [4]. 玉米 industry - **Corn**: The price of corn 2601 is 2154 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan (0.94%); the Pingcang price in Jinzhou Port is 2150 yuan, unchanged; the basis is - 4 yuan, down 20 yuan (-125.00%) [7]. - **Corn starch**: The price of corn starch 2601 is 2469 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan (0.73%); the spot price in Changchun is 2510 yuan, unchanged; the basis is 41 yuan, down 18 yuan (-30.51%) [7]. 白糖 industry - **Futures market**: The price of sugar 2601 is 5448 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan (0.13%); the price of sugar 2605 is 5388 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.09%); the ICE raw sugar main contract is 14.22 cents/pound, up 0.10 cents (0.71%) [12]. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning is 5750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan (0.88%); the Nanning basis is 362 yuan, up 55 yuan (17.92%) [12]. 棉花 industry - **Futures market**: The price of cotton 2605 is 13615 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan (-0.04%); the price of cotton 2601 is 13605 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan (-0.07%); the ICE US cotton main contract is 64.48 cents/pound, down 0.59 cents (-0.91%) [13]. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B is 14618 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan (-0.06%); the CC Index of 3128B is 14820 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan (-0.03%) [13]. 鸡蛋 industry - **Futures indicators**: The price of the egg 12 - contract is 3227 yuan/500KG, up 10 yuan (0.31%); the price of the egg 01 - contract is 3386 yuan, up 1 yuan (0.03%); the basis is - 295 yuan/500KG, up 37 yuan (11.19%) [15]. - **Related indicators**: The egg - laying chicken chick price is 2.80 yuan/feather, up 0.15 yuan (5.66%); the culled chicken price is 4.11 yuan/jin, down 0.18 yuan (-4.20%); the egg - feed ratio is 2.38, up 0.03 (1.28%) [15].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. - For methanol, with reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. - For urea, domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. - For rubber, macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. - For PVC, the supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. - For polyethylene, the cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. - For polypropylene, the cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. - For PX, the load is high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue, and it is recommended to wait and see [26]. - For PTA, the supply overhaul volume is high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. - For ethylene glycol, the supply is high, imports are increasing, and inventories are expected to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The valuation is relatively high, and it is recommended to short on rallies [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The main INE crude oil futures closed down 8.10 yuan/barrel, a 1.79% decline, at 443.70 yuan/barrel. Singapore's ESG oil product weekly data showed gasoline inventory decreased by 1.90 million barrels to 11.49 million barrels, diesel inventory increased by 0.26 million barrels to 10.06 million barrels, fuel oil inventory decreased by 0.89 million barrels to 23.67 million barrels, and total refined oil inventory decreased by 2.53 million barrels to 45.22 million barrels [2]. - **Strategy View**: Although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices are not advisable to be overly bearish. A low - buy and high - sell range strategy is maintained, but it is recommended to wait and see for now, waiting for a decline in OPEC exports when oil prices fall for verification [3]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The price in Taicang increased by 32 yuan, Inner Mongolia decreased by 5 yuan, and Lunan decreased by 10 yuan. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 24 yuan, at 2298 yuan/ton, and the basis changed from negative to positive at +19. The 1 - 5 spread changed by +13, at - 13 [4]. - **Strategy View**: With reduced import disturbances, prices are expected to return to be priced by its own fundamentals. Supply is high due to increased domestic production and rising imports, while demand is weak. Although the current fundamental situation is weak, short - selling is not cost - effective, and it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Urea - **Market Information**: Spot prices in Shandong and Henan remained stable. The 01 - contract on the futures market increased by 3 yuan, at 1600 yuan, and the basis was - 50. The 1 - 5 spread changed by - 6, at - 74 [7]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic supply has returned with increased production, and demand is weak in the off - season. It is in a state of low valuation and weak drive, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices were oscillating and showed signs of stabilization. The long - side of natural rubber RU was bullish due to seasonal and demand expectations, while the short - side was bearish due to weak demand. Tire开工率 decreased during the National Day holiday, and the social inventory of natural rubber in China decreased by 0.77 million tons to 108 million tons as of October 12, 2025 [10][11]. - **Strategy View**: Macro disturbances may temporarily decrease, and rubber prices have stabilized in the short term. It is recommended to set stop - losses, buy on dips for short - term trading, and partially build positions for the hedge of buying RU2601 and selling RU2609 [13]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC01 contract decreased by 15 yuan, at 4677 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4580 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 97 (+15) yuan/ton. The 1 - 5 spread was - 314 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 82.6%, a 1.2% increase, and factory and social inventories increased [13]. - **Strategy View**: The supply is strong while demand is weak, and export expectations are poor. Although the valuation has declined to a low level, it is still difficult to support the weak supply - demand situation, and it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [14]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of East China pure benzene was 5590 yuan/ton, a 35 - yuan/ton decrease. The spot price of styrene was 6550 yuan/ton, a 50 - yuan/ton decrease. The closing price of the active styrene contract was 6540 yuan/ton, a 4 - yuan decrease. The basis was 10 yuan/ton, a 46 - yuan weakening. The supply - side upstream operating rate was 73.61%, a 0.41% increase, and Jiangsu port inventory decreased by 0.54 million tons [17]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of pure benzene is high, and the supply of benzene styrene is increasing while demand is declining. Port inventories are being depleted, and benzene styrene prices may stop falling in the short term [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6910 yuan/ton, an 8 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 7035 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 125 yuan/ton, a 8 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 81.1%, a 0.28% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises and traders increased [20]. - **Strategy View**: The cost support has weakened, and although the valuation decline space is limited, high - level warehouse receipts suppress the market. It is expected to maintain a low - level oscillation [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The closing price of the main contract was 6595 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan decrease. The spot price was 6650 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was 55 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan strengthening. The upstream operating rate was 77.06%, a 1.46% decrease, and inventories of production enterprises, traders, and ports increased [22]. - **Strategy View**: The cost end is expected to have an oversupply situation, and there is high inventory pressure with weak supply and demand. It is recommended to wait and see [23]. PX, PTA, and MEG PX - **Market Information**: The PX01 contract decreased by 26 yuan, at 6312 yuan. PX CFR increased by 8 dollars, at 787 dollars. The basis was 128 yuan (+89). The 1 - 3 spread was - 16 yuan (unchanged). The Chinese PX load was 87.4%, a 1% increase, and the Asian load was 79.9%, a 1.9% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants restarted or underwent maintenance [25]. - **Strategy View**: Currently, the PX load remains high, and the downstream PTA has many unexpected overhauls in the short term. The inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. Although the valuation is at a neutral - low level, there is limited downward space. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to changes in the terminal and PTA valuations [26]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA01 contract decreased by 18 yuan, at 4422 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 55 yuan, at 4325 yuan. The basis was - 85 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 60 yuan (- 2). The PTA load was 74.4%, a 2.7% decrease. Some plants adjusted their loads. Social inventory increased by 5.3 million tons on October 10 [26]. - **Strategy View**: In the future, the supply overhaul volume remains high, and the de - stocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand for polyester fiber has low inventory and profit pressure, and the load is expected to remain high, but the terminal shows signs of weakness. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. MEG - **Market Information**: The EG01 contract decreased by 4 yuan, at 4057 yuan. The East China spot price decreased by 31 yuan, at 4114 yuan. The basis was 65 yuan (- 3). The 1 - 5 spread was - 86 yuan (+2). The supply - side EG load was 75.1%, a 1.6% increase. Some domestic and overseas plants adjusted their loads. Port inventory increased by 3.4 million tons [27][30]. - **Strategy View**: In terms of industry fundamentals, the operating loads of domestic and overseas plants are high, domestic supply is large, imports are increasing, and ports are turning to inventory accumulation. In the medium term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic loads, along with the gradual commissioning of new plants, inventory is expected to continue to accumulate in the fourth quarter. The current valuation is still relatively high year - on - year, and there is pressure to continuously compress the valuation. It is recommended to short on rallies [31].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core View - The report indicates that the bottom of the live - hog spot market has not been reached as of September 30, 2025 [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pig Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: The Henan spot price is 12,430 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Sichuan spot price is 11,900 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year; the Guangdong spot price is 12,710 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Futures Prices**: The price of live - hog 2511 is 12,295 yuan/ton, down 280 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2601 is 12,785 yuan/ton, down 315 yuan/ton year - on - year; the price of live - hog 2603 is 12,450 yuan/ton, down 205 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of live - hog 2511 is 58,720 lots, an increase of 19,978 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 75,453 lots, a decrease of 9,566 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2601 is 37,054 lots, an increase of 10,127 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 76,421 lots, an increase of 4,799 lots from the previous day; the trading volume of live - hog 2603 is 14,327 lots, an increase of 6,995 lots from the previous day, and the open interest is 52,605 lots, an increase of 1,743 lots from the previous day [3]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of live - hog 2511 is 135 yuan/ton, up 130 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2601 is - 355 yuan/ton, up 165 yuan/ton year - on - year; the basis of live - hog 2603 is - 20 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 11 - 1 is - 490 yuan/ton, up 35 yuan/ton year - on - year; the spread between live - hog 1 - 3 is 335 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton year - on - year [3]. 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [-2, 2] interval, with - 2 being the most bearish and 2 being the most bullish [4].