能源化工日报 2026-02-27 2026/02/27 原油 【行情资讯】 张正华 橡胶分析师 从业资格号：F270766 交易咨询号：Z0003000 0755-233753333 INE 主力原油期货收跌 6.00 元/桶，跌幅 1.23%，报 483.60 元/桶；相关成品油主力期货高硫 燃料油收涨 53.00 元/吨，涨幅 1.81%，报 2987.00 元/吨；低硫燃料油收跌 4.00 元/吨，跌幅 0.12%，报 3460.00 元/吨。 美国 EIA 周度数据出炉，美国原油商业库存累库 15.99 百万桶至 435.80 百万桶，环比累库 3.81%；SPR 补库 0.00 百万桶至 415.44 百万桶，环比补库 0.00%；汽油库存去库 1.01 百万桶 至 254.83 百万桶，环比去库 0.40%；柴油库存累库 0.25 百万桶至 120.35 百万桶，环比累库 0.21%；燃料油库存去库 0.11 百万桶至 23.04 百万桶，环比去库 0.46%；航空煤油库存去库 徐绍祖 聚烯烃分析师 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号：Z0022675 18665881888 xusha ...

研究所 农产品研发报告 玉米淀粉日报 2026 年 2 月 26 日 玉米淀粉日报 第一部分 数据 | 玉米&玉米淀粉数据日报 | | | | | | | | 2026/2/26 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货盘面 | | | | | | | | | | 期货 | | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 增减幅 | 持仓量 | 增减幅 | | C2601 | | 2310 | 10 | 0.43% | 1,541 | 36.37% | 4,575 | 13.98% | | C2605 | | 2342 | 10 | 0.43% | 576,076 | -5.50% | 1,381,322 | 6.41% | | C2509 | | 2365 | 11 | 0.47% | 23,454 | -5.59% | 96,471 | 3.06% | | CS2601 | | 2653 | 10 | 0.38% | 36 | 80.00% | 82 | 7.89% | | CS2605 | | 2673 | 10 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the pre - holiday urea price remains firm, with the 05 contract being relatively resistant to decline. In the medium - term, attention should be paid to the industry's inventory accumulation after the holiday. The 05&09 spread may continue to oscillate strongly due to the optimistic expectation of peak - season demand. The industry profit is improving but the upside may be limited due to the overall loose supply - demand situation [6][8][23] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Price and Market Conditions - The 05 contract of urea rebounded this week, reaching a new high on Thursday. The UR2605 contract closed at 1843 yuan/ton on Thursday. The pre - holiday urea market is strong. Although the demand is ending, the downstream replenishment is active, the factory orders are good and the inventory is controllable. The 05 contract may resist decline after the holiday supported by the spring - plowing demand [6] - The spot prices in various regions are firm, with the downstream actively replenishing. The factory's offer prices are gradually rising, and the market sentiment is positive. The mainstream ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Shandong is about 1760 - 1800 yuan/ton [8] - The basis of the 05 contract in Shandong and Henan oscillated and declined this week. As of Thursday, the basis of Shandong's 05 contract was about - 43 yuan/ton, and that of Henan's was about - 33 yuan/ton. The UR03&05 spread was about - 19 yuan/ton, and the UR05&09 spread was about 40 yuan/ton, and the latter may continue to oscillate strongly [8] Warehouse Receipts - The number of warehouse receipts has been falling from a high level recently. As the warehouse receipts will be concentratedly cancelled in February, the number will further decline. As of Thursday, there were about 10,949 urea warehouse receipts, mainly distributed in Huilong Group, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [9] Device Maintenance and Production - This week, the urea device maintenance volume was about 143,200 tons, a decrease of 16,800 tons from the previous period. The coal - based device maintenance volume was about 93,500 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, and the gas - based device maintenance volume was about 49,700 tons, a decrease of 21,400 tons. The supply pressure may continue to recover [12] - As of February 12, the domestic urea operating rate was about 90.59%, a rise of about 1.45% from the previous period. The weekly urea output was about 1.4931 million tons, an increase of 23,900 tons from last week, and the average daily output was about 213,300 tons, a slight increase of 3,400 tons. The inventory device load may further increase [14] Demand Side - The compound fertilizer operating rate decreased significantly this week. As of February 12, it was about 36.19%, a decline of 5.6% from last week. The profit was generally stable. The inventory increased by 5.02% to about 787,100 tons. During the Spring Festival, the load will remain low and then gradually recover, which will put pressure on soda ash [15][16] - The melamine operating rate increased slightly to about 60.77% as of February 12, and the output also increased slightly. The resumption of some devices drove the load to rebound, and the market fluctuation is relatively limited due to sufficient pending orders [18] Inventory and Pre - orders - As of February 11, the domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 834,700 tons, a decrease of about 83,800 tons from the previous period, a decline of about 9.12%. The port inventory increased slightly by 1,000 tons to about 166,000 tons. The pre - order days increased to about 11.12 days. After the holiday, the inventory may rise and put pressure on the price [20] Industry Profit - As of February 12, the fixed - bed process profit was about 82 yuan/ton, the water - coal - slurry profit was about 291 yuan/ton, an increase of 28 yuan/ton from last week, and the natural - gas profit was about - 208 yuan/ton. The industry profit has been improving and may continue to improve after the holiday, but the upside is limited due to the loose supply - demand situation [23]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, current prices have factored in a high geopolitical premium. Given the potential over - expected production increase in Venezuela and OPEC's subsequent production recovery, it is advisable to take profits at high prices and focus on mid - term layout [2]. - For methanol, it has priced in a significant number of negative factors. With potential short - term geopolitical fluctuations overseas, it is recommended to take profits on previous short positions and adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach [4]. - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window. Coupled with the expected production recovery at the end of January, the fundamental outlook is bearish, so it is advisable to short on rallies [7]. - For rubber, approaching the Spring Festival, it is recommended to reduce risk, trade short - term on the market, set stop - losses, and avoid holding single - sided positions during the festival. Consider holding a long NR main contract and short RU2609 contract for hedging [12]. - For PVC, the domestic supply - demand situation is weak, with strong supply and weak demand. Although short - term factors such as electricity price expectations, capacity clearance expectations, and export rush support the price, the weak fundamentals may affect the industry pattern. It is necessary to pay attention to subsequent changes in capacity and production [15]. - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene has been significantly repaired, so it is advisable to gradually take profits [19]. - For polyethylene, the OPEC+ plan to suspend production growth in Q1 2026 may lead to a bottoming of crude oil prices. The spot price of polyethylene has declined, and the overall demand is in a seasonal off - peak. The price is expected to be supported by the significant reduction of coal - based inventory [22]. - For polypropylene, in the context of weak supply and demand with high overall inventory pressure, the short - term situation is stable. The long - term contradiction has shifted from cost - driven decline to production mismatch. It is advisable to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread at low prices [25]. - For PX, it is expected to maintain an inventory accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. The mid - term outlook is positive, and there are opportunities to go long following crude oil prices after the Spring Festival [28]. - For PTA, it is entering the Spring Festival inventory accumulation stage. The processing fee is expected to remain high, and there are mid - term opportunities to go long at low prices [31]. - For ethylene glycol, the industry is facing inventory accumulation and high production pressure. Although there is a risk of a short - term rebound due to geopolitical and cost factors, the supply - demand situation needs to be improved through increased production cuts [33]. Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Information**: On February 12, 2026, the INE main crude oil futures rose 4.30 yuan/barrel, or 0.91%, to 476.80 yuan/barrel. The main futures of related refined oil products, high - sulfur fuel oil, rose 39.00 yuan/ton, or 1.38%, to 2,860.00 yuan/ton, and low - sulfur fuel oil rose 76.00 yuan/ton, or 2.32%, to 3,357.00 yuan/ton [1]. Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu remained unchanged, while those in Lunan, Henan, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia changed by 5 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, 15 yuan/ton, and 5 yuan/ton respectively. The main futures contract changed by 14.00 yuan/ton to 2,248 yuan/ton, and the MTO profit changed by 12 yuan [3]. Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong, Henan, Hebei, Jiangsu, Shanxi, and Northeast China changed by 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, 10 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton respectively, while that in Hubei remained unchanged. The overall basis was reported at - 17 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 12 yuan/ton to 1,797 yuan/ton [6]. Rubber - **Market Information**: The short - term rubber market rebounded with the commodity market. The bulls were optimistic about the market due to macro - economic expectations, seasonal expectations, and demand expectations, while the bears were pessimistic due to weak demand. As of February 5, 2026, the operating rate of all - steel tires in Shandong tire enterprises was 60.94%, 1.47 percentage points lower than the previous week but 40.93 percentage points higher than the same period last year. The operating rate of semi - steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was 73.42%, 1.93 percentage points lower than the previous week but 44.41 percentage points higher than the same period last year. As of February 1, 2026, China's natural rubber social inventory was 128.1 million tons, a 0.9 - million - ton increase from the previous month, or 0.7%. The total natural rubber inventory in Qingdao increased by 1.09 million tons to 59.12 million tons, a 1.88% increase [9][10]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 19 yuan to 4,990 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4,750 (+20) yuan/ton, the basis was - 240 (+1) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 113 (+4) yuan/ton. The cost of calcium carbide in Wuhai was reported at 2,550 (0) yuan/ton, the price of medium - grade semi - coke was 785 (0) yuan/ton, the price of ethylene was 695 (0) US dollars/ton, and the spot price of caustic soda was 590 (+2) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.3%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, with the calcium carbide method at 80.9%, a 0.3% increase, and the ethylene method at 75.5%, a 0.5% increase. The overall downstream operating rate was 41.4%, a 3.3% decrease from the previous period. The in - plant inventory was 28.8 million tons (- 0.2), and the social inventory was 122.7 million tons (+2.1) [14]. Pure Benzene & Styrene - **Market Information**: In terms of fundamentals, the cost of East China pure benzene was 6,103 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase. The closing price of the active pure benzene contract was 6,124 yuan/ton, an 87.5 - yuan/ton increase, and the pure benzene basis was - 21.5 yuan/ton, a 2.5 - yuan/ton reduction. In the spot - futures market, the styrene spot price was 7,550 yuan/ton, a 150 - yuan/ton decrease, and the closing price of the active styrene contract was 7,497 yuan/ton, a 24 - yuan/ton increase. The basis was 53 yuan/ton, a 174 - yuan/ton weakening. The BZN spread was 153.62 yuan/ton, a 12.5 - yuan/ton decrease. The profit of non - integrated EB plants was - 213.975 yuan/ton, a 44.125 - yuan/ton decrease. The EB consecutive 1 - consecutive 2 spread was 69 yuan/ton, a 19 - yuan/ton reduction. The upstream operating rate was 69.96%, a 0.68% increase, and the inventory at Jiangsu ports was 10.86 million tons, a 0.80 - million - ton increase. The weighted operating rate of three S products was 40.79%, a 0.23% increase, the PS operating rate was 55.20%, a 0.40% decrease, the EPS operating rate was 56.24%, a 2.98% increase, and the ABS operating rate was 64.40%, a 1.70% decrease [18]. Polyethylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,787 yuan/ton, a 12 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,585 yuan/ton, a 90 - yuan/ton decrease. The basis was - 202 yuan/ton, a 102 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 87.03%, a 0.27% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 37.97 million tons, a 5.67 - million - ton increase from the previous period, and the trader inventory was 2.32 million tons, a 0.23 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 33.73%, a 4.03% decrease from the previous period. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 49 yuan/ton, a 2 - yuan/ton expansion [21]. Polypropylene - **Market Information**: Fundamentally, the closing price of the main contract was 6,693 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton increase, and the spot price was 6,675 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis was - 18 yuan/ton, a 5 - yuan/ton weakening. The upstream operating rate was 74.9%, a 0.01% decrease from the previous period. In terms of weekly inventory, the production enterprise inventory was 41.58 million tons, a 1.49 - million - ton increase from the previous period, the trader inventory was 18.32 million tons, a 0.02 - million - ton decrease, and the port inventory was 6.37 million tons, a 0.03 - million - ton decrease. The average downstream operating rate was 49.84%, a 2.24% decrease from the previous period. The LL - PP spread was 94 yuan/ton, a 7 - yuan/ton expansion, and the PP5 - 9 spread was - 28 yuan/ton, a 9 - yuan/ton reduction [23][24]. PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 44 yuan to 7,264 yuan, and the PX CFR rose 8 US dollars to 917 US dollars. The basis was - 39 yuan (- 8) after conversion according to the RMB central parity rate, and the 3 - 5 spread was - 114 yuan (- 26). The PX operating rate in China was 89.5%, a 0.3% increase from the previous period, and the Asian operating rate was 82.4%, a 0.8% increase. In terms of plants, Sinochem Quanzhou was restarting, Zhejiang Petrochemical was increasing production, and Fujian United Petrochemical's operating rate fluctuated. The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. In terms of imports, South Korea exported 175,000 tons of PX to China in the first ten days of February, a 30,000 - ton increase from the same period last year. The inventory at the end of December was 4.65 billion tons, a 190 - million - ton increase from the previous month. In terms of valuation and cost, the PXN was 297 US dollars (- 5), the South Korean PX - MX was 142 US dollars (+3), and the naphtha crack spread was 106 US dollars (+15) [27]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 30 yuan to 5,260 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 40 yuan to 5,180 yuan. The basis was - 73 yuan (+2), and the 5 - 9 spread was 24 yuan (- 4). The PTA operating rate was 77.6%, a 1% increase, with Sichuan Energy Investment restarting, Dushan Energy under maintenance, and a 700,000 - ton plant in Taiwan under maintenance. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on February 6 was 2.326 billion tons, a 210 - million - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the PTA spot processing fee decreased by 1 yuan to 365 yuan, and the futures processing fee decreased by 16 yuan to 420 yuan [30]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 31 yuan to 3,764 yuan, and the East China spot price rose 29 yuan to 3,652 yuan. The basis was - 114 yuan (- 4), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 110 yuan (- 2). On the supply side, the ethylene glycol operating rate was 76.2%, a 1.8% increase, with the syngas - based method at 76.8%, a 4.3% decrease, and the ethylene - based method at 75.9%, a 5.4% increase. Among the syngas - based plants, Wonen was shut down and expected to restart in the short term, Guanghui restarted, and Sinochem reduced production due to an accident. In the oil - chemical sector, Zhongke Refining & Chemical and Sinochem Quanzhou restarted, and Satellite switched production after shutting down. Overseas, China Taiwan's Zhongxian shut down, and Saudi Arabia's Sharq2 restarted. The downstream operating rate was 78.2%, a 6% decrease, with Hengyi's 250,000 - ton filament plant restarting and 4.75 million tons of chemical fiber plants such as Sanfangxiang, Jiabao, and Yuanlong under maintenance. The terminal texturing operating rate decreased by 35% to 17%, and the loom operating rate decreased by 24% to 9%. The import arrival forecast was 181,000 tons (two weeks), and the East China departure volume on February 10 was 12,400 tons. The port inventory was 935,000 tons, a 38,000 - ton increase. In terms of valuation and cost, the naphtha - based production profit was - 1,312 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based production profit was - 710 yuan, and the coal - based production profit was 24 yuan. The price of ethylene decreased to 695 US dollars, and the price of Yulin pit - mouth steam coal decreased to 580 yuan [32].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of US corn has weakened, and it is expected to fluctuate strongly at the bottom. Corn spot in North China is strong, while that in Northeast China is stable. The price difference between Northeast and North China corn has widened. The corn spot still has room to fall, and the 03 corn contract will also decline, but the decline space of the 07 corn contract is limited [2][4][6]. - The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. It is expected that the 03 starch contract on the disk will fluctuate at a high level in the short term [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data - **Futures Quotes**: The closing prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, trading volume change rates, open interests, and open interest change rates of multiple corn and corn starch futures contracts are provided. For example, the closing price of C2601 is 2264, with a price increase of 7 and a price change rate of 0.31%, a trading volume of 274 with a decrease rate of 25.75%, and an open interest of 3448 with an increase rate of 0.17% [1]. - **Spot Price and Basis**: The spot prices and price changes of corn and starch in different regions are given. For example, the spot price of corn in Qinggang is 2135, with no price change; the spot price of starch in Longfeng is 2730, with no price change. The basis of corn and starch is also provided, such as the basis of C2601 is - 173 [1]. - **Spread**: The spreads and their price changes of corn inter - period, starch inter - period, and cross - variety are provided. For example, the spread of C01 - C05 is - 22, with a price change of - 5; the spread of CS01 - CS05 is - 8, with a price change of 1 [1][3]. 3.2 Market Judgment - **Corn**: The US corn price has fallen back but is still oscillating at the bottom. The import profit of foreign corn has increased. The northern port's flat - warehouse price is stable, and the Northeast corn spot is stable. The supply in North China has decreased before the Spring Festival, and the spot is stable. The price difference between North China and Northeast corn has widened. The wheat price in North China is strong, and the price difference between wheat and corn is large. The domestic breeding demand is stable, and the inventory of downstream feed enterprises has increased. The 03 contract is oscillating in a narrow range, and the spot basis is strengthening [2][4]. - **Starch**: The number of trucks arriving at Shandong deep - processing plants has decreased, and the corn spot in Shandong is strong. The starch spot in Northeast China is stable. The inventory of corn starch has decreased this week. The starch price mainly depends on the corn price and downstream stocking. The by - product price has started to weaken but is still higher than last year. The price difference between corn and starch is at a low level. The 03 starch contract is oscillating strongly following the corn, and the starch spot has stabilized in the short term [5]. 3.3 Trading Strategies - **Unilateral**: The 03 US corn has support at 420 cents per bushel. Go long on the 07 and 05 corn contracts on dips [7]. - **Arbitrage**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 3 - 7 corn contracts, and go long on the spread between the 05 corn and starch contracts on dips [7]. 3.4 Corn Options - The option strategy is a short - term cumulative put strategy with rolling operations [8]. 3.5 Related Attachments - Multiple charts are provided, including the northern port's corn flat - warehouse price, corn 05 contract basis, corn 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 5 - 9 spread, corn starch 05 contract basis, and corn starch 05 contract spread [12][14][16][18][19].

1. Report Information - Report Title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" - Date: February 6, 2026 - Research Institution: Guangda Futures Research Institute [1] 2. Core Viewpoints - The report presents the latest data on iron ore contract spreads, basis, and variety spreads, and also shows the relevant historical data charts, which can help investors understand the current market situation of iron ore [3][7][15] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1 Contract Spreads - The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased by 13.0, 13.5, and 12.5 respectively compared with the previous day - The spreads of I05 - I09 and I01 - I05 increased by 0.5, while the spread of I09 - I01 decreased by 1.0 [3] 3.2 Basis - The prices of most iron ore varieties decreased, with the price of Ukrainian iron concentrate dropping by 16.0, and the prices of some varieties remaining unchanged - The basis of most varieties increased, among which the basis of FMG mixed powder increased by 4, and the basis of some varieties of iron concentrate increased by 13 [7] 3.3 Variety Spreads - The spreads of PB block - PB powder and Newman block - Newman powder increased by 6.0 - The spreads of PB powder - mixed powder and Jinbuba - mixed powder decreased by 3.0 - The spreads of other varieties remained mostly unchanged or changed slightly [15] 3.4 Exchange Rule Adjustments - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron Concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian Iron Concentrate) were added starting from the I2202 contract, with a brand premium of 0 - The brand premiums of PB powder, BRBF, and Carajas powder were adjusted to 15 yuan/ton, and the premiums of other deliverable brands were set to 0 - The allowable ranges of iron grade and other element indicators were adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium of iron element indicators was introduced - Four new deliverable brands (Taigang Iron Concentrate, Magang Iron Concentrate, Minmetals Standard Powder, SP10 Powder) were added with a brand premium of 0, applicable to contracts starting from I2312 [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report presents a daily monitoring of iron ore basis and price spreads, including contract spreads, basis data and charts, and variety price spreads and charts. It also details the adjustments to the deliverable brands and their premiums/discounts for iron ore futures contracts [3][7][13] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Contract Spreads - The closing price of I05 is 781.5 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 is 764.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan; I01 is 753.5 yuan/ton, up 4.5 yuan [3] - The spread of I05 - I09 is 17.0 yuan/ton, down 0.5 yuan; I09 - I01 is 11.0 yuan/ton, unchanged; I01 - I05 is -28.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [3] 3.2 Basis 3.2.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties such as Carajás fines (Carajás), BRBF, Newman fines, etc., their prices, delivery costs, basis, and changes are presented. For example, the price of Carajás fines is 881 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan, with a basis of 57 yuan, unchanged [7] 3.2.2 Basis Charts - Charts show the basis of different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc., from May 2025 to January 2026 [10][11][12] 3.3 Adjustment of Deliverable Brands and Premiums/Discounts - Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian iron concentrate) are added with a brand premium/discount of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [13] - The brand premiums/discounts of existing varieties are adjusted. Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [13] - The quality differences and quality premiums/discounts of substitutes are modified, including the adjustment of the allowable range of iron grade and other element indicators, and the introduction of a dynamic adjustment mechanism for the premium/discount value of iron element indicators [13] - Four more brands (Taigang iron concentrate, Magang iron concentrate, Minmetals standard fines, SP10 fines) are added as deliverable brands with a brand premium/discount of 0 yuan/ton, applicable to the I2312 and subsequent contracts [13] 3.4 Variety Price Spreads 3.4.1 Variety Price Spread Data - The price spreads of different iron ore varieties are presented, such as the spread of PB lump - PB fines is 69.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan; PB fines - FMG mixed fines is 58.0 yuan/ton, up 2.0 yuan [15] 3.4.2 Variety Price Spread Charts - Charts show different types of price spreads, including lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc [16][17][18]

| 81.00 | 期货 | œ | | --- | --- | --- | | GF FUTURES | | | 苹果 现值 前值 涨跌 涨跌幅 单位 苹果2605 (主力) 9594 109 9485 1.15% 苹果2610合约 8310 8256 54 0.65% 元/吨 基差 -1394 -1285 -109 -8.48% 苹果5-10价差 1284 1229 55 4.48% 槎龙果品批发市场到货 60 53 7 13.21% 江门水果批发市场到货 35 27 8 29.63% 车 下桥水果批发市场到货 42 34 8 23.53% 115274 5380 期货持仓量 120654 4.67% # 全国冷库库存 654.05 682.78 -28.73 -4.21% 万吨 盘面利润 -1525 -1434 -91 -6.35% 元/吨 主产区现货成交价格 | 油脂产业期现日报 | 1 75 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength is -2, indicating the most bearish outlook [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for live pigs is underperforming expectations, and the supply contradiction is expanding [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1. Pig Fundamental Data - **Prices**: Henan spot price is 12,980 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; Sichuan spot price is 12,700 yuan/ton, down 150 yuan; Guangdong spot price is 12,560 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan. For futures, the price of pig 2603 is 11,270 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; pig 2605 is 11,695 yuan/ton, unchanged; pig 2607 is 12,370 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [2]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of pig 2603 is 51,067 lots, down 18,603 lots, and the open interest is 121,223 lots, down 6,419 lots; pig 2605 has a trading volume of 31,968 lots, down 1,260 lots, and an open interest of 118,843 lots, up 3,128 lots; pig 2607 has a trading volume of 6,225 lots, down 307 lots, and an open interest of 46,367 lots, down 216 lots [2]. - **Price Spreads**: The basis of pig 2603 is 1,710 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan; pig 2605 is 1,285 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; pig 2607 is 610 yuan/ton, down 195 yuan. The spread between pig 3 - 5 is -425 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan; between pig 5 - 7 is -675 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan [2].

1. Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - For crude oil, although the geopolitical premium has disappeared and OPEC's production increase is minimal with supply not yet surging, short - term oil prices should not be overly bearish. Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but currently, wait and see as the price needs to test OPEC's export price - support willingness. [2] - For methanol, with low valuation and an improving outlook next year, the downside is limited. Despite short - term negative pressure, geopolitical instability in Iran brings expectations, and there is feasibility to buy on dips. [3] - For urea, the current situation of internal - external price differences has opened the import window, and with the expected increase in production at the end of January, negative fundamental expectations are coming, so take profits on rallies. [6] - For rubber, with a weak seasonal pattern, it is expected to continue to decline after consolidation. Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] - For PVC, the fundamentals are poor with strong supply and weak demand in China. Short - term electricity price expectations and pre - April 1 export rush support the price, but mid - term, short on rallies before significant industry production cuts. [14] - For pure benzene and styrene, the non - integrated profit of styrene is moderately high with limited room for upward valuation repair. As the non - integrated profit has significantly recovered, gradually take profits. [17] - For polyethylene, OPEC+ plans to suspend production growth in Q1 2026, and crude oil prices may have bottomed. Although the spot price has risen, the valuation has room to decline further. With no new capacity planned in H1 2026 and reduced coal - based inventory, the price has support, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] - For polypropylene, the EIA report forecasts a slight reduction in global oil inventory, and the supply surplus may ease. With no new capacity in H1 2026, the supply pressure is relieved. In a context of weak supply and demand, the inventory pressure is high. Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] - For PX, it is expected to continue to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. After the Spring Festival, both PX and its downstream PTA will have strong supply - demand, and there are mid - term opportunities to buy on dips following crude oil. [26] - For PTA, it is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation stage with high short - term maintenance on the supply side and weakening demand due to seasonality. There is room for valuation to rise after the Spring Festival, and look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] - For ethylene glycol, the overall load is still high, and the inventory - accumulation cycle at ports will continue. There is an expectation of further profit compression and load reduction under new - plant commissioning pressure. Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term due to the tense situation in Iran and cold wave expectations. [30] 3. Summary of Each Product Crude Oil - **Market Information**: INE main crude oil futures rose 5.30 yuan/barrel, or 1.20%, to 446.40 yuan/barrel. Related refined product futures, high - sulfur fuel oil rose 48.00 yuan/ton, or 1.89%, to 2592.00 yuan/ton; low - sulfur fuel oil rose 51.00 yuan/ton, or 1.65%, to 3135.00 yuan/ton. [1] - **Strategy**: Maintain a range strategy of buying low and selling high, but wait and see currently. [2] Methanol - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Jiangsu changed by 5 yuan/ton, Lunan by - 5 yuan/ton, Henan by 0 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia by - 2.5 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by 45.00 yuan/ton to 2260 yuan/ton, and MTO profit changed by 1 yuan. [3] - **Strategy**: Buy on dips as the valuation is low and the outlook is improving. [3] Urea - **Market Information**: Regional spot prices in Shandong changed by 0 yuan/ton, Henan by - 10 yuan/ton, Hebei by 0 yuan/ton, Hubei by 0 yuan/ton, Jiangsu by - 10 yuan/ton, Shanxi by - 20 yuan/ton, and Northeast by 0 yuan/ton. The overall basis was - 36 yuan/ton. The main futures contract changed by - 3 yuan/ton to 1776 yuan/ton. [5] - **Strategy**: Take profits on rallies due to expected negative fundamentals. [6] Rubber - **Market Information**: Rubber prices rebounded with a volatile pattern. The long - side reasons include limited production growth in Southeast Asian rubber forests, a seasonal upward trend in the second half of the year, and improved demand expectations in China. The short - side reasons are uncertain macro expectations, increased supply, and a seasonal demand slump. As of January 15, 2026, the operating rate of Shandong tire enterprises' all - steel tires was 62.84%, up 2.30 percentage points from last week and 2.78 percentage points from the same period last year; the semi - steel tire operating rate was 74.35%, up 6.35 percentage points from last week but down 4.09 percentage points from the same period last year. As of January 11, 2026, China's total natural rubber social inventory was 125.6 million tons, a 1.9% increase. Spot prices: Thai standard mixed rubber was 14700 (+100) yuan, STR20 was 1885 (+15) dollars, etc. [8][9][10] - **Strategy**: Adopt a bearish approach, short on rebounds if RU2605 breaks below 16000, and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609. [11] PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose 106 yuan to 4849 yuan. The spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4570 (+70) yuan/ton, the basis was - 279 (- 36) yuan/ton, and the 5 - 9 spread was - 114 (+4) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 79.6%, unchanged from the previous period. The demand - side downstream operating rate was 43.9%, down 0.1%. Factory inventory was 31.1 million tons (- 1.7), and social inventory was 114.4 million tons (+3). [13] - **Strategy**: Short on rallies mid - term before significant industry production cuts. [14] Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The spot price of pure benzene in East China was 5760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the active contract closing price was 6000 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis was - 240 yuan/ton, narrowing by 195 yuan/ton. The spot price of styrene was 7600 yuan/ton, up 250 yuan/ton; the active contract closing price was 7694 yuan/ton, up 386 yuan/ton; the basis was - 94 yuan/ton, weakening by 136 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 70.86%, down 0.06%; the Jiangsu port inventory was 9.35 million tons, a reduction of 0.71 million tons. The demand - side three - S weighted operating rate was 41.91%, up 1.02%. [16] - **Strategy**: Gradually take profits as the non - integrated profit of styrene has significantly recovered. [17] Polyethylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6814 yuan/ton, up 148 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6640 yuan/ton, up 65 yuan/ton; the basis was - 174 yuan/ton, weakening by 83 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 81.56%, up 1.23%. The production enterprise inventory was 35.03 million tons, a reduction of 4.51 million tons; the trader inventory was 2.92 million tons, unchanged. The downstream average operating rate was 41.1%, down 0.11%. The LL5 - 9 spread was - 31 yuan/ton, narrowing by 3 yuan/ton. [19] - **Strategy**: The price has support from reduced coal - based inventory and OPEC+ production suspension, but demand is in a seasonal downturn. [20] Polypropylene - **Market Information**: The main contract closing price was 6624 yuan/ton, up 139 yuan/ton; the spot price was 6660 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton; the basis was 36 yuan/ton, weakening by 39 yuan/ton. The upstream operating rate was 76.61%, down 0.01%. The production enterprise inventory was 43.1 million tons, a reduction of 3.67 million tons; the trader inventory was 19.39 million tons, a reduction of 1.08 million tons; the port inventory was 7.06 million tons, a reduction of 0.05 million tons. The downstream average operating rate was 52.58%, down 0.02%. The LL - PP spread was 190 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton; the PP5 - 9 spread was - 25 yuan/ton, widening by 9 yuan/ton. [21][22] - **Strategy**: Wait for the supply - surplus situation to change in Q1 next year for the price to bottom. Long the PP5 - 9 spread on dips. [23] PX - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose 184 yuan to 7390 yuan; PX CFR rose 19 dollars to 907 dollars. The basis was - 70 yuan (- 30), and the 3 - 5 spread was - 78 yuan (- 4). The Chinese PX load was 88.9%, down 0.5%; the Asian load was 81%, up 0.4%. In January, South Korea's PX exports to China decreased by 6.8 million tons year - on - year. The inventory at the end of November was 446 million tons, a monthly increase of 6 million tons. [25] - **Strategy**: Look for mid - term buying opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival. [26] PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose 144 yuan to 5298 yuan; the East China spot price rose 70 yuan to 5155 yuan. The basis was - 71 yuan (- 1), and the 5 - 9 spread was 34 yuan (- 10). The PTA load was 76.6%, up 0.3%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) on January 16 was 204.5 million tons, an increase of 4 million tons. The spot processing fee was 353 yuan, down 31 yuan; the futures processing fee was 450 yuan, up 23 yuan. [27] - **Strategy**: Expect inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival. Look for mid - term buying opportunities. [28] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract rose 158 yuan to 3847 yuan; the East China spot price rose 90 yuan to 3660 yuan. The basis was - 109 yuan (+1), and the 5 - 9 spread was - 103 yuan (+14). The ethylene glycol load was 73%, down 1.4%. The downstream load was 86.7%, down 1.6%. The import arrival forecast was 20.5 million tons, and the East China port departure on January 21 was 0.76 million tons. The port inventory was 79.5 million tons, a reduction of 0.7 million tons. The naphtha - based profit was - 1059 yuan, the domestic ethylene - based profit was - 862 yuan, and the coal - based profit was - 5 yuan. [29] - **Strategy**: Be cautious of rebound risks in the short term and expect further valuation compression mid - term without significant production cuts. [30]