2025 年 8 月 26 日 螺纹钢：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 热轧卷板：市场情绪反复，宽幅震荡 李亚飞 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021184 liyafei2@gtht.com 金园园（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03134630 jinyuanyuan2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 螺纹钢、热轧卷板基本面数据 | | | 昨日收盘价 （元/吨） | 涨 跌 （元/吨） 22 | 涨跌幅 （%） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | RB2510 HC2510 | 3,138 3,389 | 31 | 0.71 0.92 | | 期 货 | | | | | | | | 昨日成交 （手） | 昨日持仓 （手） | 持仓变动 （手） | | | RB2510 | 1,200,313 | 1,347,830 | -63,773 | | | HC2510 | 508,110 （元/吨） 昨日价格 | 938,245 前日价格 （元/吨） | -59,902 涨 跌 （元/吨） | | | 上海 | 3310 | 3280 | 30 | | | 杭州 | 3340 | 33 ...

2025 年 8 月 26 日 棕榈油：基本面暂无新驱动，等待回调布多 豆油：四季度缺豆交易暂缓，高位震荡整理 李隽钰 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021380 lijunyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 油脂基本面数据 | | 棕榈油主力 | 单 位 元/吨 | 收盘价(日 盘） 9,488 | 涨跌幅 -0.23% | 收盘价 （夜 盘） 9,542 | 涨跌幅 0.57% | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 元/吨 | | | | | | | 豆油主力 | | 8,536 | 0.52% | 8,514 | -0.26% | | | 菜油主力 | 元/吨 | 9,998 | 0.03% | 9,918 | -0.80% | | 期 货 | 马棕主力 | 林吉特/吨 | 4,493 | -0.84% | 4,482 | -0.22% | | | CBOT豆油主力 | 美 分/磅 | 54.84 | -0.87% | | | | | | 单 位 | 昨日成交 | 成交变动 | 昨日持仓 | 持仓变动 | | | 棕榈油主力 | 手 | 3 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The urea futures price was strong first and then weak. The spot price dropped to near the mid - June level, and the downstream acceptance may gradually increase. The prices of other raw materials for compound fertilizers, sulfur and potassium chloride, continued to rise. Attention should be paid to the release of July urea export data and the impact of Indian tenders on the futures market. The support level is 1700 - 1720, and the pressure level is 1820 - 1850 [2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Changes - **Price**: The urea futures price fluctuated between 1724 yuan/ton (low) and 1772 yuan/ton (high). On August 15, the closing price of the urea 2601 contract was 1737 yuan/ton, a 0.8% decrease from the previous week. The daily average price of urea in the Henan spot market was 1715 yuan/ton, a 3.16% decrease from the previous week [2][4]. - **Base Difference**: On August 15, the main base difference in the Henan market was - 22 yuan/ton. The main base difference of urea weakened, with the main contract switching from 09 to 01. The spot price of urea dropped significantly, supported by the futures market's expectations [8]. - **Spread**: The 9 - 1 spread of urea ran within a range, with the 01 contract at a premium. On August 15, the 9 - 1 spread was - 16 yuan/ton, with a weekly operating range of - 29 to - 11 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Changes - **Supply**: The operating load rate of Chinese urea plants was 84.45%, a 1.73 - percentage - point increase from the previous week. The operating load rate of gas - based enterprises was 75.47%, basically unchanged from the previous week. The daily urea output was 19.27 tons, and the daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons [2][11]. - **Cost**: The price of anthracite continued to adjust strongly. As of August 14, the tax - included price of washed anthracite small pieces in Jincheng, Shanxi (S0.4 - 0.5) was 840 - 900 yuan/ton, with the closing price up 15 yuan/ton from the previous week. The gross profit margins of coal - based and gas - based urea both decreased slightly [14]. - **Demand**: Agricultural demand was scattered. The capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizer enterprises was 43.48%, a 1.98 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, reaching a medium - to - high level. The inventory of compound fertilizers was 82.65 tons, an increase of 2.61 tons from the previous week. The demand support from other industrial sectors such as melamine and urea - formaldehyde resin weakened [2][21]. - **Inventory**: Urea enterprise inventory was 860,000 tons, an increase of 77,000 tons from the previous week, showing inventory accumulation for three consecutive weeks. Urea port inventory was 742,000 tons, a decrease of 48,000 tons from the previous week, with partial digestion of port inventory. There were 3,573 registered urea warehouse receipts, totaling 71,460 tons [2][27]. Key Points of Attention - The operating conditions of compound fertilizer plants, the reduction and maintenance of urea plants, export policies, and coal price fluctuations [2].

Report Overview - The report is the "Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" released by Everbright Futures on August 15, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures contract spreads, basis, and variety spreads [1] Contract Spreads - **Price Changes**: The closing prices of I05, I09, and I01 contracts decreased by 21.0, 14.5, and 20.0 respectively compared to the previous day [3] - **Spread Changes**: The spreads of I05 - I09, I09 - I01, and I01 - I05 were -38.0, 16.0, and 22.0 respectively, with changes of -6.5, 5.5, and 1.0 compared to the previous day [3] Basis Data - **Price Changes**: Most iron ore varieties' prices decreased, such as a 10.0 decrease for Carajás fines and a 15.0 decrease for BRBF [6] - **Basis Changes**: The basis of most varieties increased, like Carajás fines' basis increasing by 9 and BRBF's by 4 [6] Charts - The report provides multiple basis charts for different types of iron ore, including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, etc [8][9][10] Variety Spreads Data - **Spread Changes**: Some spreads increased, like PB lump - PB fines increasing by 3.0, while others decreased, like BRBF - PB fines decreasing by 2.0 [13] Charts - The report presents various charts for variety spreads, such as block - powder spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, etc [14][15][16][18][19][20] Rule Adjustments - **New Deliverable Varieties**: Four new deliverable varieties (Benxi concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate) were added with brand premiums of 0, effective from the I2202 contract [11] - **Premium Adjustments**: Only PB fines, BRBF, and Carajás fines have a brand premium of 15 yuan/ton, and the rest are 0 yuan/ton [11] - **Quality Premium Adjustments**: The allowable range of iron grade was adjusted, and a dynamic adjustment mechanism for iron element premium was introduced [11]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is about the hog market on August 14, 2025, indicating that the spot market is mainly weak [1] Group 2: Fundamental Data - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,930 yuan/ton with a year - on - year increase of 50; Sichuan's is 13,550 yuan/ton with a 200 increase; Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton with no change [3] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are 13,950 yuan/ton, 14,045 yuan/ton, and 14,295 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 15, - 185, and - 130 [3] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: For hog2509, the trading volume is 9,835 lots (up 3,466 from the previous day) and the open interest is 18,627 lots (down 3,281 from the previous day); for hog2511, the trading volume is 47,508 lots (up 20,637) and the open interest is 66,230 lots (up 5,348); for hog2601, the trading volume is 18,115 lots (up 8,296) and the open interest is 45,776 lots (up 941) [3] - **Price Spreads**: The basis of hog2509, hog2511, and hog2601 are - 20 yuan/ton, - 115 yuan/ton, and - 365 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of 65, 235, and 180; the hog 9 - 11 spread is - 95 yuan/ton (up 170 year - on - year), and the hog 11 - 1 spread is - 250 yuan/ton (down 55 year - on - year) [3] Group 3: Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view, with the range of [-2, 2] for trend intensity and different levels of strength classification [4] Group 4: Market Logic - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while individual farmers are forced to hold back hogs. Demand growth is limited, leading to large market pressure. Recent daily transactions are poor, and it's difficult to absorb market supply [5] - The September contract is entering the pre - delivery month, and on the tenth trading day, it enters the second phase of position limits. The futures price is still at a significant premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence [5] - Recently, the macro sentiment has strong support for the far - end contracts, resulting in a pattern of weak current situation and strong expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse arbitrage, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [5]

Group 1: General Information - Report title: "Guangqi Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" [1] - Report date: August 13, 2025 [1] Group 2: Futures Contract Information - I05 contract: Today's closing price is 779.5 yuan/ton, up 11.5 yuan/ton from the previous day; I05 - I09 spread is -28.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - I09 contract: Today's closing price is 807.5 yuan/ton, up 11.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; I09 - I01 spread is 6.5 yuan/ton, down 1.0 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - I01 contract: Today's closing price is 801.0 yuan/ton, up 12.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; I01 - I05 spread is 21.5 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] Group 3: Basis Information 3.1 Basis Data - For various iron ore varieties like Carajás fines (Carajás fines: today's price is 888 yuan/ton, up 9.0 yuan/ton from the previous day; today's basis is 45 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day), different basis data are presented, with price changes ranging from 0 to 12.0 yuan/ton and basis changes from -5 to 9 yuan/ton [6] 3.2 Basis Chart - There are charts showing basis for different types of iron ore including Brazilian fines, Australian medium - grade fines, Australian low - grade fines, domestic ores, etc. [8][9][10] Group 4: Exchange Rule Adjustments - Since December 2nd, the main contract of iron ore is I2205. Some adjustments are made to the deliverable brands and related rules: 4 new deliverable varieties (Benxi Iron and Steel concentrate powder, IOC6, KUMBA, Ukrainian concentrate powder) are added with brand premium of 0 starting from I2202; brand premiums of some existing varieties are adjusted; quality difference and premium rules for substitutes are modified; 4 more brands (Taigang concentrate powder, Magang concentrate powder, Minmetals standard powder, SP10 powder) are added as deliverable brands with brand premium of 0 [11] - The adjusted deliverable brands and premiums apply to I2312 and subsequent contracts. Starting from the first trading day after the last delivery day of I2311, the exchange will handle the registration of standard warehouse receipts for iron ore futures according to the adjusted rules [12] Group 5: Variety Spread Information 5.1 Variety Spread Data - For example, PB lump - PB fines spread is 142.0 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; PB fines - mixed fines spread is 74.0 yuan/ton, up 4.0 yuan/ton from the previous day, with various spread data presented [13] 5.2 Variety Spread Charts - There are charts showing different types of spreads such as lump - fines spreads, high - medium grade fines spreads, medium - low grade fines spreads, etc. [14][17][21] Group 6: Research Team Information - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, with their respective positions, work experience, and qualification numbers introduced [25]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report's Core View - The domestic liquid caustic soda market had fair transactions today, with prices in most regions remaining stable. The price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong rose steadily, while the price of 48% liquid caustic soda in Jiangsu decreased. Chlor - alkali enterprises in Shandong had good shipments and low inventory pressure. Due to some enterprises having low loads or undergoing maintenance, the price of 32% liquid caustic soda remained stable, and the price of 50% liquid caustic soda rose steadily. Demand in Jiangsu was average, and the price of high - concentration caustic soda decreased slightly. The mainstream transaction price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 820 - 865 yuan/ton, and the local large - scale alumina factory's purchase price was 750 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price of 50% ion - membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 1270 - 1350 yuan/ton, remaining stable compared to the previous working day. The PVC price in Shandong increased by 30 yuan, and the futures主力 contract's closing price increased by 10. With intense long - short game, it is recommended to continue to stay on the sidelines. [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Product Price Changes - **Raw Salt**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the Northwest remained unchanged at 200, 250, and 200 respectively [1]. - **Calcium Carbide**: The price in Inner Mongolia decreased by 15 to 2325, while the price in Shandong remained at 2780 [1]. - **Liquid Chlorine**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and the Northwest changed to - 100, - 50, and - 600 respectively, with increases of 100, 30, and 0 [1]. - **32% Liquid Caustic Soda**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remained stable at 800, 890, etc. [1]. - **50% Liquid Caustic Soda**: Prices in Shandong, Jiangsu, and other regions remained stable at 1300, 1400, etc. [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes**: Prices in Shandong, Inner Mongolia, the Southwest, etc. remained unchanged [1]. - **PVC**: The price in Shandong increased by 30 to 4830, and the price in Inner Mongolia remained at 4580 [1]. - **Futures and Related Indicators**: The futures主力 contract's closing price increased by 10 to 2502, and the basis in Shandong and Jiangsu decreased by 10 [1]. 2. Price Spreads - **50% Caustic Soda - 32% Caustic Soda Spread**: Remained at 100 in Shandong [1]. - **Caustic Soda Flakes - 50% Caustic Soda Spread**: Remained at 625 in Shandong [1]. - **Regional Spreads of 50% Caustic Soda and Caustic Soda Flakes**: Remained unchanged in various regions [1]. 3. Profits and Electricity Prices - **Chlor - Alkali Profits**: In Shandong, it increased by 100 to - 165, and in the Northwest, it increased by 20 to 818 [1]. - **Electricity Prices**: Remained unchanged in Shandong and Inner Mongolia at 0.75 and 0.5 respectively [1].

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Sugar**: Short - term, it's difficult for raw sugar prices to fall below previous lows, but the overall trend is bearish. Zhengzhou sugar may rebound but will remain bearish due to increased imports and weak demand [3]. - **Corn**: In the short - term, the corn market has average trading, with a weak sentiment and the futures price will oscillate at a low level. In the long - term, the futures price may decline due to lower costs and increased supply [5]. - **Meal**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract of rapeseed meal. Domestic soybean and meal inventories are rising, and short - term supply is high, which suppresses the spot price [10]. - **Pig**: Spot pig prices are weakly oscillating, and short - term prices are not optimistic. The far - month 01 contract has support but also faces hedging pressure [13]. - **Cotton**: Short - term, domestic cotton prices may oscillate within a range. After new cotton is on the market, prices will face pressure [17]. - **Egg**: Egg futures are still bearish, but low - price demand may support prices, while high supply may limit the increase [21]. 3. Summary by Industry 3.1 Oil and Fat Industry - **Soybean Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 0.70% to 8670 on August 12. The basis of Y2601 increased by 18.18% [1]. - **Palm Oil**: The spot price in Guangdong increased by 3.12% to 9260. The basis of P2509 increased by 57.14%. The import profit decreased by 254.50% [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu increased by 1.24% to 9760. The basis of OI601 decreased by 180.77% [1]. 3.2 Sugar Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of SR2601 and SR2509 increased by 0.63% and 0.49% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 0.19%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 2.12% [3]. - **Spot Market**: The price in Nanning remained unchanged. The basis decreased. The import price of Brazilian sugar increased [3]. - **Industry Situation**: National sugar production and sales increased by 12.03% and 23.07% respectively year - on - year. Industrial inventory decreased [3]. 3.3 Corn Industry - **Corn**: The price in Jinzhou Port decreased slightly. The 9 - 1 spread decreased by 9.46%. The number of vehicles at Shandong deep - processing plants increased by 25.25% [5]. - **Corn Starch**: The price of CS2509 increased by 0.11%. The basis decreased by 4.41%. The profit of Shandong starch increased by 9.71% [5]. 3.4 Meal Industry - **Soybean Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 0.34%. The basis of M2601 decreased by 23.77%. The import profit of Brazilian soybeans decreased [10]. - **Rapeseed Meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu decreased by 2.99%. The basis of RM2601 decreased by 100%. The import profit of Canadian rapeseed increased [10]. - **Soybean**: The price of domestic and imported soybeans remained stable. The basis of the main contracts changed [10]. 3.5 Pig Industry - **Futures**: The prices of LH2511 and LH2601 increased by 0.64% and 0.42% respectively. The open interest of the main contract decreased by 2.28% [13]. - **Spot**: Prices in different regions had small fluctuations. The daily slaughter volume remained unchanged [13]. 3.6 Cotton Industry - **Futures Market**: The prices of CF2509 and CF2601 increased by 0.40% and 0.72% respectively. The open interest of the main contract increased by 67.73%, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased by 1.04% [17]. - **Spot Market**: The prices of Xinjiang cotton and related indexes increased slightly. The basis decreased [17]. - **Industry Situation**: Commercial inventory decreased by 13.9%, and industrial inventory increased by 1.8%. Import volume decreased by 25% [17]. 3.7 Egg Industry - **Futures**: The prices of JD09 and JD10 increased by 1.22% and 0.41% respectively. The 9 - 10 spread increased by 31.03% [20]. - **Spot**: The egg price in the production area remained unchanged. The basis decreased by 25.52% [20]. - **Industry Situation**: The price of egg - laying chicks remained stable, the price of culled hens decreased, and the breeding profit decreased significantly [20][21].

Report Overview - The report is titled "Guangda Futures Black: Iron Ore Basis and Spread Monitoring Daily Report" dated August 12, 2025, focusing on iron ore futures and related price data [1] 1. Futures Contract Prices and Spreads 1.1 Futures Contract Prices - The closing price of I05 is 768.0 yuan/ton, up 15.0 yuan from the previous day; I09 is 796.5 yuan/ton, up 6.5 yuan; I01 is 789.0 yuan/ton, up 15.5 yuan [3] 1.2 Futures Contract Spreads - The spread of I05 - I09 is -28.5 yuan/ton, up 8.5 yuan; I09 - I01 is 7.5 yuan/ton, down 9.0 yuan; I01 - I05 is 21.0 yuan/ton, up 0.5 yuan [3] 2. Basis Data 2.1 Basis Data Table - For various iron ore varieties, such as Carajás fines (Kafen), its price is 879 yuan/ton today, up 6.0 yuan from the previous day, with a basis of 40 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. Other varieties like BRBF, Newman fines also have corresponding price and basis changes [6] 2.2 Basis Policy Changes - Since December 2, the main iron ore contract is I2205. The number of deliverable varieties has increased by 4, including Bengang concentrate, IOC6, KUMBA, and Ukrainian concentrate, with brand premiums of 0. The brand premiums of existing varieties have been adjusted, and the quality differences and premiums of substitutes have been modified [11] 3. Variety Spreads 3.1 Variety Spread Data - The spread of PB lump - PB fines is 142.0 yuan/ton, down 6.0 yuan; PB fines - FMG mixed fines is 70.0 yuan/ton, down 3.0 yuan. There are also spreads and changes for other variety combinations [13] 4. Research Team Introduction - The black research team includes Qiu Yuecheng, Zhang Xiaojin, Liu Xi, and Zhang Chunjie, each with rich experience and professional titles in the iron ore and related industries [24]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - The report maintains a reverse spread strategy for the hog market [1] 2. Core View - In August, the planned slaughter volume of group farms increases, while retail farmers passively hold back hogs. With limited demand growth, the market faces significant pressure. The daily trading volume is poor, making it difficult to absorb market supply. As the September contract enters the pre - delivery month and the second position limit on the tenth trading day, the futures price is still at a large premium to the warehouse receipt cost, increasing the industry's willingness to deliver. Attention should be paid to the market of premium convergence. Recently, the macro sentiment strongly supports the far - end contracts, presenting a situation of weak current reality and strong future expectations. The spread structure maintains a reverse spread, and stop - loss and take - profit should be noted. The short - term support level for the LH2509 contract is 13,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 14,500 yuan/ton [4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Spot Prices**: Henan's spot price is 13,880 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton; Sichuan's is 13,300 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton; and Guangdong's is 15,290 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Futures Prices**: The prices of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 13,930 yuan/ton, 14,180 yuan/ton, and 14,415 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year increases of 60 yuan/ton, 80 yuan/ton, and 20 yuan/ton [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are 8,931 lots, 34,996 lots, and 12,459 lots respectively, with changes of - 1,234 lots, + 287 lots, and + 830 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 26,443 lots, 60,194 lots, and 44,010 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,287 lots, + 596 lots, and + 853 lots compared to the previous day [2] - **Spreads**: The basis of contracts LH2509, LH2511, and LH2601 are - 50 yuan/ton, - 300 yuan/ton, and - 535 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 160 yuan/ton, - 180 yuan/ton, and - 120 yuan/ton. The spreads between LH2509 and LH2511, and between LH2511 and LH2601 are - 250 yuan/ton and - 235 yuan/ton respectively, with year - on - year changes of - 20 yuan/ton and + 60 yuan/ton [2] 3.2 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a relatively bearish view on the market. The range of trend intensity is from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [3] 3.3 Market Logic - In August, the market is under pressure due to increased supply and limited demand. The September contract's entry into the pre - delivery month and the large premium to the warehouse receipt cost increase the industry's delivery willingness. The macro sentiment supports far - end contracts, resulting in a reverse spread structure [4]