国泰君安期货·能源化工 天然橡胶周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所·高琳琳 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002332 日期：2025年9月14日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENTS 行业资讯 01 行情走势 02 基本面数据 03 本周观点总结 04 行业资讯 期货价格 基差与月差 其他价差 替代品价格 资金动向 供给 需求 库存 本周观点总结 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 行业资讯 1 行业资讯 1.【马来西亚7月天胶产量同比四连降】据马来西亚统计局9月12日消息，2025年7月天胶出口量同比降22.8%至37,198吨，环比增25.2%。其中47.3%出口 至中国，其他依次为德国15%、印度6.7%、美国6.1%、埃及3%。7月马来西亚天胶进口量为56,874吨，同比降0.2%，环比增0.8%。标准胶、浓缩乳胶、其 他形状天然橡胶为主要进口类别，其主要进口来源国为泰国、科特迪瓦、菲律宾、缅甸等。7月可监控天胶总产量为35,884吨，同比降5.5%，环比增 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The new - season peanut prices are falling, and the futures market is oscillating at the bottom. Traders can try selling the pk511 - P - 7600 option strategy, consider buying 05 peanuts at low prices, and conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [5][6]. Summary by Directory Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Option Strategy**: Try selling the pk511 - P - 7600 option strategy [5]. - **Trading Logic**: Peanut trading volume has decreased. The prices of general - purpose peanuts in Henan and Northeast China have declined, while the purchase prices of oil mills are relatively strong. The price of general - purpose peanuts in Henan is around 4.3 yuan per jin. Imported peanut prices are stable, but the import volume has decreased significantly. The operating rate of oil mills has increased, the spot price of peanut meal is stable, the price of peanut oil has fallen, and the profit of oil mills from pressing has decreased. Downstream consumption remains weak. The inventory of peanut oil and peanuts in oil mills is decreasing but still at a high level. The November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable. Some new peanuts have been listed, demand is weak, the output of new - season peanuts may increase or remain flat, and the planting cost has decreased. Peanut spot prices continue to fall, and futures are oscillating at the bottom [6]. - **Strategy**: The November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom. Consider buying 05 peanuts at low prices [6]. - **Spread Strategy**: Conduct reverse arbitrage on the 10 - 1 spread when it is high [6]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **Peanut Price**: The purchase prices of oil mills and imported peanuts are stable, while the prices of general - purpose peanuts are falling. In Shandong, the price of large - grain peanuts in Junan is 4.1 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Henan, the price of new - season peanuts in Zhengyang is 4.3 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Liaoning, the price of Baisha peanuts in Changtu is 3.95 yuan per jin, a decrease of 0.05 yuan per jin from last week; in Jilin, the price of Baisha peanuts in Fuyu is 3.9 yuan per jin, remaining stable from last week. The general - purpose peanut market has average trading volume, and prices are falling. Most oil mills have stopped purchasing, and the basic purchase price is between 7300 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week. The price of Sudanese old peanuts is 8150 yuan per ton, new peanuts are 8500 yuan per ton, and Senegalese oil - used peanuts are 7600 - 7800 yuan per ton, remaining stable from last week [9][11]. - **Domestic Demand**: The operating rate of oil mills has increased, and peanut inventory has decreased. As of September 11, the operating rate of peanut oil mills this week is 9.47%, a month - on - month increase of 4.21%. The arrival volume of oil mills has increased. The peanut inventory in oil mills is 65,600 tons, a decrease of 7100 tons from last week, and the peanut oil inventory is 37,000 tons, a decrease of 100 tons from last week [13][15]. - **Pressing Profit**: The purchase price of peanuts by oil mills is stable, the price of peanut oil has fallen, and the pressing profit has decreased. The pressing profit of peanut oil mills is 135 yuan per ton, a month - on - month decrease of 58 yuan per ton. The average price of first - grade peanut oil is 14,700 yuan per ton, a decrease of 100 yuan per ton from last week, and the price of small - pressed fragrant peanut oil is 16,500 yuan per ton, a decrease of 200 yuan per ton from last week. Due to the strong spot price of soybean meal, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal is low, and the price of peanut meal is relatively strong, remaining stable at 3260 yuan per ton this week [17][19]. - **Basis and Spread**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach. This week, the November peanut futures are oscillating at the bottom, and the 11 - 1 spread is stable at around - 30 yuan. The basis between spot and futures has fallen [21][24]. - **Peanut Import**: The import volume of peanuts has decreased significantly. In July, the import volume of peanut kernels was 9500 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume was 103,000 tons, a 77% decrease compared to the same period last year. In July, the export volume of peanut kernels was 9000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative export volume was 95,000 tons, a 27% increase compared to the same period last year. In July, the import volume of peanut oil was 42,000 tons, and from January to July, the cumulative import volume of peanut oil was 223,000 tons, a 40% increase compared to the same period last year [27][29]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Peanut Price**: Charts show the historical price trends of Shandong general - purpose peanut kernels, oil mill procurement prices, and the basis between Shandong spot and continuous contracts [33][34]. - **Basis and Spread**: Charts show the historical trends of the 1 - 4 spread, 4 - 10 spread, and 10 - 1 spread of peanuts [38][39]. - **Peanut Import and Export**: Charts and data show the cumulative import volume of Chinese peanuts, cumulative export volume of peanut kernels, and the import volume of peanut oil, including the import volume from different countries and regions and the import price [41][59]. - **Pressing Profit**: Charts show the historical trends of the pressing profit of peanut oil mills, the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal, and the price of peanut oil in Shandong [44][45]. - **Downstream**: Charts show the operating rate of pressing plants, peanut pressing volume, and peanut oil inventory in oil mills [51][52]. - **Peanut Oil Import**: Charts and data show the import price of peanut oil and the monthly cumulative import volume of Chinese peanut oil, as well as the import volume from different countries and regions [57][59]. - **Price Difference**: Charts show the price differences between peanut oil and soybean oil, sunflower oil, and rapeseed oil, as well as the price difference between peanut meal and soybean meal [61][65].

Report Title - PX & PTA & MEG Strategy Report for September 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - PX supply is expected to reach a high level in September, with short - process MX being abundant and new MX production adding to PX output. However, downstream TA maintenance is increasing, and with the continuous compression of TA processing fees, TA devices may have further maintenance. Thus, PX fundamentals are weak, and it may show a weak and volatile trend without significant crude oil fluctuations [150]. - For PTA, although the polyester operating load is rising and the fundamentals are improving, the price performance is weak, and the TA processing fee is still compressed below 200 yuan/ton. The "Golden September and Silver October" demand is facing challenges, with increasing external tariff risks. The TA price is expected to have support and show an overall volatile trend [150]. - MEG's operating load has climbed to a high level. In September, there are both maintenance and restart of devices. The port inventory is low, and the spot liquidity is tight. With supply contraction and demand increase, the port inventory is expected to remain low, and the short - term price may be volatile and strong [150]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. PX&PTA&MEG Price: Follow Crude Oil Price Oscillation - **Futures Prices**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA futures closing price decreased from 4808 yuan/ton to 4792 yuan/ton (-0.3%), MEG increased from 4414 yuan/ton to 4465 yuan/ton (1.2%), and PX decreased from 6928 yuan/ton to 6886 yuan/ton (-0.6%) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: For PTA basis, it changed from - 17 yuan/ton to - 20 yuan/ton (-17.6%); MEG basis changed from 71 yuan/ton to 64 yuan/ton (-9.9%); PX basis changed from 188 yuan/ton to 97 yuan/ton (-48.6%). The TA - EG spread decreased from 394 yuan/ton to 327 yuan/ton (-17.0%), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 337 yuan/ton to 313 yuan/ton (-7.2%) [16][19][22]. - **International and Domestic Price Differences**: The ethylene glycol price difference between Europe and China increased from 52 dollars/ton to 150 dollars/ton (186.8%) [26]. 2. PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 29, Asian PX operating load was 75.6% (month - on - month increase of 2.7 percentage points), and China's was 83.3% (month - on - month increase of 3.4 percentage points). The 160 - million - ton PX device of Fuhua Group restarted in early September. Multiple new reforming devices are expected to be put into operation starting from August, which may increase PX output [33][58][59]. - **PTA**: As of August 29, PTA operating load was 70.4% (month - on - month decrease of 9.3 percentage points). There were device maintenance and new device production. The autumn maintenance plan is concentrated in September - October [37][60]. - **MEG**: As of August 28, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 75.13% (month - on - month increase of 5.79%). There are device restart and maintenance plans in September [52][61]. 3. PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: Tariff Extension for 90 Days - **Imports and Exports in July 2025**: China's PX imports were 78.20 million tons (month - on - month increase of 2.17%), PTA exports were 37.42 million tons (month - on - month increase of 46.66%), and ethylene glycol imports were 59.14 million tons (month - on - month decrease of 4.27%) [64][65][76]. - **Polyester Exports**: In July 2025, the total polyester export was 120.33 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 3.68%. Different polyester products had different export trends [75][77]. 4. PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Downstream Finished Product Inventory Rebounds - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [86]. - **MEG**: As of August 25, the ethylene glycol port inventory in the East China main port area was about 50 million tons, reaching a low level [89]. 5. Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Faces Challenges - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 29, the polyester operating load was 90.3% (month - on - month increase of 2.5%). The inventory days of some polyester products changed, and the cash flow also changed [92]. - **Terminal Demand**: In July, textile and clothing exports faced downward pressure. With the extension of tariffs for 90 days, the export expectation of Chinese textiles and clothing is expected to improve [106][103]. 6. PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: From July 31 to August 28, 2025, PTA total positions decreased from 1,493,200 lots to 1,360,753 lots, MEG total positions decreased from 357,146 lots to 320,792 lots, and PX total positions increased from 243,421 lots to 289,662 lots [119].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - PX fundamentals maintain a weak balance, with obvious resilience in terminal demand. In the short - term, PX prices follow the cost of crude oil. In the future, during the peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October", there is significant potential for demand and production to increase [139]. - For PTA, with large - scale device maintenance plans in August and new device production, the monthly output is expected to change little. Downstream demand provides resilient support. If oil prices are further pressured, TA prices will follow suit. Attention should be paid to demand recovery, tariff implementation progress, and significant oil price fluctuations [139]. - Regarding MEG, the supply is recovering well, and there is still room for domestic production to increase. The downstream demand provides resilient support. The inventory inflection point may arrive, and supply - demand will shift to inventory accumulation. Short - term prices are expected to be weakly adjusted, and subsequent attention should be paid to changes in coal and oil prices [139]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 PX&PTA&MEG Price: Following Crude Oil Price Fluctuations - **Futures Prices**: From July 4 to August 1, 2025, PTA's closing price increased from 4710 yuan/ton to 4744 yuan/ton (a 0.7% increase), MEG's increased from 4277 yuan/ton to 4405 yuan/ton (a 3.0% increase), and PX's increased from 6672 yuan/ton to 6812 yuan/ton (a 2.1% increase) [6]. - **Basis and Spread**: PTA's basis decreased from 97 yuan/ton to - 12 yuan/ton (a - 112.4% change), MEG's basis decreased from 77 yuan/ton to 74 yuan/ton (a - 3.9% change), and PX's basis decreased from 263 yuan/ton to 219 yuan/ton (a - 16.6% change). The TA - EG spread decreased from 433 yuan/ton to 339 yuan/ton (a - 21.7% change), and the TA - PX*0.656 spread decreased from 333 yuan/ton to 275 yuan/ton (a - 17.4% change) [16][19][23]. - **Domestic and Foreign Spreads**: For ethylene glycol, the CFR China price increased by 3.1%, the FOB US Gulf price increased by 6.6%, the FD Northwest Europe price decreased by 7.5%, and the ethylene glycol spread (Europe - China) decreased by 54.6% from July 4 to July 31, 2025 [26]. 3.2 PX&PTA&MEG Supply Situation: Focus on Device Recovery - **PX**: As of August 1, the Asian PX operating load was 73.4% (a 0.4 - percentage - point increase month - on - month), and China's was 81.1% (a 4.5 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). Some devices had unexpected outages or restarts [34]. - **PTA**: As of August 1, the PTA operating load was 72.6% (a 5.1 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month). New devices were put into production, and some existing devices were under maintenance [38]. - **MEG**: As of August 1, the overall operating load of ethylene glycol in mainland China was 68.64% (a 0.97 - percentage - point decrease month - on - month), and the operating load of synthetic - gas - based ethylene glycol was 74.04% (a 5.79 - percentage - point increase month - on - month). Some overseas devices were scheduled for maintenance [52][56]. 3.3 PX&PTA&MEG Import and Export Situation: High Global Trade Concerns - **PX**: In June 2025, China imported 76.54 million tons of PX, a 0.94% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative import volume from January to June was 450.03 million tons, a 2.38% increase year - on - year [60]. - **PTA**: In June 2025, China exported 25.52 million tons of PTA, a 3.78% decrease from the previous month. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 185.68 million tons, a 16.90% decrease year - on - year [61]. - **MEG**: In June 2025, China's monthly import volume of ethylene glycol was 61.78 million tons, a 2.34% increase month - on - month and a 1.30% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative import volume increased by 19.91% year - on - year [62]. - **Polyester**: In June 2025, the total export volume of polyester products was 124.9 million tons. The cumulative export volume from January to June was 719.2 million tons, a 17% year - on - year increase [66]. 3.4 PX&PTA&MEG Inventory Situation: Increase in Downstream Finished - Product Inventory - **PTA**: Polyester factories' PTA raw material inventory increased, and the number of warehouse receipts decreased [77]. - **MEG**: As of July 28, the port inventory in the main eastern China ports was about 52.1 million tons, and the inventory accumulation was postponed [80]. 3.5 Polyester Demand Situation: Terminal Demand Underperforms Expectations - **Domestic Polyester Data**: As of August 1, 2025, the polyester operating load was 88.1%, a 2.3% decrease from July 4. The inventory days and cash - flow of some products also changed [83]. - **Textile and Apparel Exports**: In June 2025, textile and apparel exports were 273.1 billion US dollars, a 0.1% year - on - year decrease. From January to June, the cumulative export was 1439.8 billion US dollars, an 0.8% increase [98]. 3.6 PX&PTA&MEG Positioning Situation - **Futures Positions**: On August 1, 2025, compared with July 4, PTA's total position decreased by 202,221 hands, MEG's decreased by 4207 hands, and PX's increased by 23,384 hands [113].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of raw materials in the production areas is prone to rise and difficult to fall, with strong cost support. The downstream demand is average, and the acceptance of high prices is limited, resulting in light overall trading. The conflict between Thailand and Cambodia has a potential impact on the supply of natural rubber. Coupled with the continuous fermentation of anti - involution, the market sentiment was bullish last week. However, considering the impact of regulatory control measures on leading varieties and the overall market sentiment, it is expected that rubber may follow the overall market atmosphere and may have a narrow - range correction [76]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Industry News - In the first half of 2025, Thailand's total exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber increased by 13.2% year - on - year to 2.257 million tons, and exports to China increased by 35% to 1.423 million tons [5]. - In the first half of 2025, EU passenger car sales decreased by 1.9% to 5.58 million vehicles, with a 7.3% year - on - year decline in June to 1.01 million vehicles. The market share of pure electric vehicles rose to 15.6%, and hybrid electric vehicles accounted for 34.8%, while the total market share of gasoline and diesel vehicles dropped to 37.8% [6]. - Thailand and Cambodia had a border conflict on July 24, with both sides accusing the other of opening fire first [7]. - In June 2025, global light - vehicle sales increased by 2.1% year - on - year to 7.73 million vehicles. The annualized sales volume after seasonal adjustment rose to 93 million vehicles/year. Trade frictions affected major markets such as the US and Western Europe, while the Chinese market maintained strong sales [8]. Market Trends - This week, both domestic and foreign markets continued to rise. On July 25, 2025, the closing price of RU2509 was 15,585 yuan/ton, up 5.23% this week; the closing price of NR2509 was 13,320 yuan/ton, up 5.09%; the closing price of Singapore TSR20:2509 was 178.90 cents/kg, up 5.30%; and the closing price of Tokyo RSS3:2509 was 332.70 yen/kg, up 2.56% [10][11]. Basis and Monthly Spread - As of July 25, 2025, the basis of whole - milk rubber to RU was - 35 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month change of - 250.00% and a year - on - year increase of 88.33%. The 09 - 01 monthly spread was - 765 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3.16% and a year - on - year increase of 35.17% [14]. Other Spreads - Cross - variety/cross - market spreads such as RU - NR, RU - BR, NR - SGX TSR20, and RU - JPX RSS3 increased. On July 25, 2025, the RU09 - NR09 spread was 2,265 yuan/ton, up 6.09% month - on - month and down 2.58% year - on - year [22][23]. - Non - standard basis spreads: The spreads of Thai mixed rubber to RU, Malaysian mixed rubber to RU, 3L rubber to RU, and African No. 10 rubber to RU changed. For example, the Thai mixed rubber to RU spread was - 485 yuan/ton on July 25, 2025, with a large month - on - month change [24][26]. - Light - dark color spreads: The spread between whole - milk rubber and Thai mixed rubber widened, while the spread between 3L rubber and Thai mixed rubber narrowed [31]. Substitute Prices - Due to policy factors and the border conflict, the price of synthetic rubber rose, but RU rose more, widening the spread between synthetic rubber and RU. On July 25, 2025, the price of China's mainstream butadiene rubber was 12,200 yuan/ton, and the price of styrene - butadiene rubber was 12,450 yuan/ton [34]. Capital Movements - The long - short position ratio of RU was relatively low, and the funds settled were neutral year - on - year. The long - short position ratio of NR rose rapidly, and the funds settled increased rapidly. On July 25, 2025, the long - short position ratio of RU was 6.98, and that of NR was 16.72 [36][37]. Supply - Weather in Thai production areas: The temperature in southern Thailand rose, and rainfall continued to ease. In domestic production areas, recent rainfall in Hainan and Yunnan was high year - on - year, and rainfall in Hainan increased significantly month - on - month [40][41]. - Raw material prices: The raw material procurement prices continued to rise, strengthening the upstream cost support. On July 25, 2025, the price of Thai cup rubber was 50 baht/kg, and the price of Thai glue was 55.3 baht/kg [44][45]. - Raw material spreads: The spread between Thai glue and cup rubber decreased, while the spread between Hainan glue for concentrated latex plants and that for whole - milk rubber plants increased [53][54]. - Upstream processing profits: This week, the rubber processing profits recovered. On July 25, 2025, the production profit of Thai standard rubber was 108 yuan/ton [56][57]. - Rubber imports: In June 2025, China's imports of natural rubber (including mixed and composite rubber) increased by 2.21% month - on - month and 33.95% year - on - year. The imports of Thai mixed rubber, Vietnamese mixed rubber, and Vietnamese standard rubber increased significantly month - on - month, while the imports of Thai standard rubber decreased significantly [60][61]. Demand - Tire capacity utilization and inventory: This week, the overall tire capacity utilization increased slightly. The inventory of some sample tire enterprises increased slightly. On July 25, 2025, the capacity utilization of China's semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 70.06%, and that of full - steel tire sample enterprises was 62.23% [64]. - Tire exports and heavy - truck sales: In June 2025, the exports of full - steel and semi - steel tires decreased year - on - year and month - on - month. Passenger car sales maintained high growth, and heavy - truck sales improved significantly year - on - year and month - on - month [67][68]. Inventory - Spot inventory: As of July 18, 2025, China's natural rubber social inventory was 1.2891 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.47%. The inventory of dark - colored rubber was 795,600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.23%, and the inventory of light - colored rubber was 493,500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.85% [69]. - Futures inventory: On July 25, 2025, the futures inventory of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 182,000 tons, and the futures - spot inventory was 210,800 tons [72].