Core Viewpoint - The current global economic environment is undergoing significant disruption due to trade tensions and tariff escalations, leading to unprecedented uncertainty about future market conditions [1][8][29]. Group 1: Market Conditions - The credit market currently offers better investment opportunities compared to stocks, with high-yield bonds yielding approximately 8%, up from 7.2% six weeks ago [2][3]. - The stock market has experienced a decline of approximately 15% to 17% recently, attributed to a deteriorating macroeconomic environment [4][5]. - The extent of the stock market decline raises questions about whether the drop is excessive, appropriate, or insufficient, but no one can definitively answer this [6][18]. Group 2: Trade and Globalization - The shift towards protectionism and trade restrictions marks a significant paradigm shift from the era of free trade and globalization, which has historically contributed to economic prosperity [8][9]. - The benefits of trade include specialization and cost advantages, which enhance global welfare; a move away from trade could lead to decreased living standards [9][10]. - The potential for sustained inflation exists as global supply chains that have historically kept prices low are disrupted by tariffs and trade barriers [10][11]. Group 3: Investment Strategy - Current market conditions present a "market dislocation" scenario, where asset prices may not accurately reflect future risks and returns [17][18]. - Investors must assess whether current price declines represent a buying opportunity or if further adjustments are necessary, as this judgment cannot be quantified [19][20]. - The historical average annual return for stocks is around 10%, but with the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 19, future returns may be lower than historical averages [13][14]. Group 4: U.S. Investment Landscape - The U.S. remains a potentially attractive investment destination, but its advantages have diminished due to weakening rule of law, predictability of outcomes, and fiscal challenges [33]. - Concerns about the U.S. fiscal deficit and debt could complicate its investment appeal, especially if global sentiment shifts against the dollar [33].

来 源 | 聪 明 投 资 者 预 计 阅 读 时 间：8 分 钟 关税不仅搅乱了经济、市场，也搅乱了全球人心。 "这是我职业生涯中，见过最大的一次环境转变。" 橡树资本联合创始人霍华德·马克斯 在美东时间 4月4日接受彭博访谈中的这句判断，揭示了一个正被深刻重构的时代。 从贸易摩擦到关税升级，全球经济秩序正处于被巨力搅乱的阶段。 马克斯直言： "我们过去假设未来会像过去，但这一次，没有人知道六个月后的规则会是什么。" 他的核心观点不是判断市场是否便宜，而是指出当前环境下， "对未来的可知性比过往任何时候都 更低" 。 而在这种高度不确定的背景下，市场价格的下跌并不自动等于机会。他甚至提醒我们：现在正处于 判断最困难的阶段——不是该贪婪，亦不是该恐惧，而是要承认"我们连自己的预测正确率都低于 历史任何时刻"。 邓普顿所说"在最悲观的时候买入"或许仍有效，但马克斯的提醒是：我们可能还没到那个"最悲 观"的时刻。 真正值得注意的是他的态度：这不是一个行动的时间，而是观察、比较、冷静评估风险与价格是否 匹配的时刻。 让子弹飞一会，可能也是当下的一种理性。 想起巴菲特在2017年股东信中引用的，也是芒格最爱的诗人拉迪 ...