1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the 1970s, during the two oil crises, the gold price increased nearly 20 - fold, rising from an average monthly price of $35 per ounce to a maximum of $675 per ounce. The gold price trends during the two oil crises had different rhythms and magnitudes of increase [3][8]. - In the short - term, the gold price has significantly corrected. This is mainly due to the high oil prices under the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, the delay of interest - rate cut expectations, and liquidity tightening. In the long - term, the trend of de - globalization still exists, and it is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold [3]. - Referring to the two oil crises, as oil prices remain high, the gold price will resume its upward trend. The central bank's gold purchases will dominate the rise of the gold price, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [58][62][74]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Two Oil Crisis Reviews 3.1.1 First Oil Crisis (1973.10 - 1974.3) - **Oil Price**: After the outbreak of the Fourth Middle - East War in October 1973, the oil price rose from $3 per barrel to $13 per barrel. After the cancellation of the oil embargo on the US in March 1974, the oil price declined but stabilized at around $10 per barrel [8][9]. - **Inflation**: The rapid increase in oil prices led to double - digit CPI in the US in 1974, with a peak of 12.2% in November 1974 [10]. - **Economic Recession**: The US GDP growth rate started to decline in Q4 1973, turned negative in Q2 1974, and returned to positive growth five quarters later [11]. - **Gold Price**: In the early stage, the gold price fluctuated due to the strong US dollar index. From November 1973 to April 1974, it rose rapidly by 81%. After the oil price peaked in March 1974, the gold price briefly declined and then rose to a new high. From 1975 - 1976.8, due to economic recovery and the selling of gold by the IMF and the US Treasury, the gold price corrected by nearly 40% [17][19][22]. 3.1.2 Second Oil Crisis (1978 end - 1980 end) - **Oil Price**: Due to the Iranian Islamic Revolution and the Iran - Iraq War, the oil price rose from $13 per barrel to $43 per barrel, with an increase of about 180% in 1979 [29]. - **Inflation**: The inflation rate in the US accelerated, with the CPI year - on - year growth rate rising from 6.7% at the end of 1977 to 13.3% in April 1980 [29]. - **Economic Situation**: The US economy fell into stagflation again, with the GDP growth rate starting to decline in Q2 1979 [29]. - **Gold Price**: In 1979, due to the weak US dollar index, the gold price rose by 119%. In 1980, under the strong monetary tightening policy, the gold price first reached a peak and then corrected. After 1980, as the US gradually emerged from inflation, the gold price started a downward trend [27][30][33]. 3.2 Current Gold Price Analysis - **Oil Price Increase**: In late February 2026, due to the full - scale escalation of the US - Israel - Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the international oil price soared from $70 per barrel to over $110 per barrel, with an increase of nearly 50% [43]. - **Gold Price Decline**: The gold price did not rise but fell, mainly due to the strong US dollar, inflation concerns, and liquidity shocks. The gold price also moved in the same direction as the stock market, mainly affected by liquidity shocks [44][48][56]. 3.3 Future Outlook for Gold - **Resumption of Gold Price Increase**: Referring to the two oil crises, as long as the oil price remains high for a long time or has a second jump, forming a strong inflation expectation, and the macro - economy shows a decline in economic growth due to high oil prices, the gold price will resume its upward trend in a stagflation - like environment [61]. - **Central Bank Gold Purchases**: Since 2022, global central banks have accelerated their gold purchases. It is expected that central banks will continue to purchase gold, and the valuation of the precious metals sector is at the lower level of the historical center, with a high safety margin [62][73][74]. 3.4 Recommended Targets - The report recommends paying attention to Zijin Gold International, Chifeng Gold, Shan Gold International, Zhongjin Gold, Zhaojin Mining, Lingbao Gold, Shandong Gold, etc. [3]