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消费者服务行业双周报(2025、10、24-2025、11、6):“十五五”规划建议提出拓展入境消费-20251107
Dongguan Securities· 2025-11-07 09:22
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" investment rating for the consumer services industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [31]. Core Insights - The consumer services industry index rose by 2.17% from October 24, 2025, to November 6, 2025, outperforming the CSI 300 index by approximately 0.28 percentage points during the same period [8][31]. - The report highlights the positive impact of the 2026 holiday arrangements, particularly the nine-day Spring Festival holiday, which is expected to stimulate domestic travel demand [31]. - Recent government policies, including the "14th Five-Year Plan" recommendations and improvements to duty-free shop policies, are anticipated to further support the recovery of inbound and domestic tourism [31][21][25]. Summary by Sections Market Review - The consumer services index continued its upward trend, outperforming the CSI 300 index [8]. - All sub-sectors within the consumer services industry experienced gains, with tourism and leisure leading at 3.44% [9]. - A total of 33 listed companies in the industry reported positive returns, with the top five performers being Fangzhitech, *ST Zhanggu, Caesar Travel, China Duty Free, and Chuangye Heima [12]. Industry News - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes expanding inbound consumption and implementing paid staggered vacations [23]. - The 2026 holiday schedule includes a nine-day Spring Festival break, leading to a threefold increase in flight searches on travel platforms [21]. - The Ministry of Finance announced improvements to duty-free shop policies effective November 1, 2025, aimed at boosting consumption [25]. Company Announcements - China Duty Free reported a revenue of 39.862 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year decline of 7.34% [28]. - Long White Mountain announced a stock issuance to optimize its capital structure, raising approximately 236 million yuan [26]. - ST Zhangjiajie was accepted for reorganization by the court, leading to a temporary suspension of its stock [27]. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Jinjiang Hotels, Changbai Mountain, Emei Mountain A, Xiangyuan Cultural Tourism, and China Duty Free, which are expected to benefit from the recovery in leisure travel demand and supportive policies [31][32].
推动服务业扩能提质,扩大服务消费
Core Viewpoint - The recent "Suggestions on Formulating the 15th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development" emphasizes the expansion of high-quality consumer goods and services, focusing on easing access and integrating business formats to enhance service consumption [1] Group 1: Service Consumption and Economic Development - The 15th Five-Year Plan period is crucial for achieving socialist modernization, with the expansion of service consumption playing a significant role in economic and social development [1] - Service consumption is directly linked to improving residents' quality of life, particularly in areas such as elderly and child care, cultural tourism, and healthcare [1] - The integration of service consumption with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture can drive the transformation of the service industry towards digitalization and sustainability [1] Group 2: International Development Trends - The growth of service consumption is a key feature of optimizing and upgrading a country's consumption structure, reflecting a shift from survival-oriented to development and enjoyment-oriented consumption [2] - Increased disposable income and the saturation of basic physical consumption drive demand for specialized and personalized services, leading to a significant rise in sectors like childcare and high-end healthcare [2] - The integration of service industries with digital technology and cultural creativity is essential for creating new service consumption formats [2] Group 3: Challenges in Service Consumption Development - Despite positive trends, challenges remain in meeting the high-quality development requirements of the 15th Five-Year Plan, particularly in the demand side where leisure time constraints limit high-end service consumption potential [2] - On the supply side, issues include the coexistence of homogenized supply and high-end service gaps, insufficient service quality and trust systems, and inadequate infrastructure and support elements [3] Group 4: Strategies for Enhancing Service Industry - To effectively promote the expansion and quality improvement of the service industry, it is essential to focus on easing access and integrating business formats to address supply shortages [3] - Key strategies include activating market vitality by relaxing foreign investment restrictions in healthcare, education, and elderly care, and simplifying approval processes for childcare and sports facilities [3] - Enhancing supply quality through the integration of service formats in key areas such as elderly care and tourism, and supporting the digital transformation of small and medium-sized service enterprises [4] Group 5: Talent and Infrastructure Development - Addressing talent shortages in sectors like elderly care and childcare by expanding vocational education and establishing special subsidy mechanisms is crucial [4] - Overcoming technological bottlenecks in high-end services through tax incentives and special funds to support research and development [4] - Implementing paid staggered vacations to alleviate time constraints and unlock the potential of service consumption [4]