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可转债市场周观察:正股大幅下跌,转债明显惜售
Orient Securities· 2025-11-25 11:44
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - This week, convertible bonds followed the decline of equities, but the decline was much smaller than that of the underlying stocks. Liquidity did not show significant panic, and the valuation continued to rise, with the premium rate of 100 - yuan bonds reaching 29%. The support for the convertible bond valuation comes from the scarcity premium due to supply less than demand and the support from the strong equity market environment. Before these two factors are completely broken, the convertible bond valuation remains firm [6]. - The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined. Currently, it is at a low level. High valuation and a decrease in high - quality individual bonds make trading more difficult. In December, due to reasons such as institutional assessments, the probability of position reduction is relatively high. In the case of an inevitable short - term correction in equities, convertible bonds are unlikely to have a continuous upward trend and may even have a supplementary decline. It is necessary to appropriately reduce the return expectations of convertible bonds, cash out in time or switch to defensive sectors. The trading opportunities of convertible bonds are greater than the trend opportunities. If a supplementary decline occurs, it may be one of the few layout opportunities at the end of the year [6]. - Affected by overseas stock markets this week, the A - share market had a systematic correction. Banks and food and beverage sectors were relatively resistant to the decline. Market sentiment was relatively pessimistic, and there was a strong demand to preserve returns at the end of the year. The disturbance from the US stock market further amplified the risk - aversion sentiment, and funds flowed to defensive sectors. Mid - cap blue - chip stocks may take over [6]. Group 3: Summary According to the Directory 1. Convertible Bond Views: Significant Decline in Underlying Stocks, Obvious Reluctance to Sell Convertible Bonds - Convertible bonds followed the decline of equities this week, but the decline was much smaller than that of the underlying stocks. The valuation continued to rise, and the premium rate of 100 - yuan bonds reached 29%. The support for the convertible bond valuation comes from the scarcity premium and the strong equity market environment. The cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds has declined, and it is necessary to reduce return expectations, cash out or switch to defensive sectors. Affected by overseas stock markets, the A - share market corrected, and mid - cap blue - chip stocks may take over [6][9]. 2. Convertible Bond Review: Convertible Bonds Followed the Decline of Equities, and Valuation Rose Significantly 2.1 Market Overall Performance: All Indexes Closed Lower, and Trading Volume Declined - Affected by overseas stock markets, all equity indexes closed lower this week. The CSI 2000 fell 6.78%, the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78%, and other indexes also had different degrees of decline. All industries declined, with banks, media, and food and beverage having smaller declines, and power equipment, comprehensive, basic chemicals, and commercial retail leading the decline. The average daily trading volume decreased by 181.322 billion yuan to 1.86 trillion yuan. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of gains last week were Luokai Convertible Bond, Dazhong Convertible Bond, etc. In terms of trading volume, Dazhong Convertible Bond, Guocheng Convertible Bond, etc. were relatively active [12]. 2.2 Slight Reduction in Trading Volume, Smaller Declines in High - Rating and Low - Price Convertible Bonds - This week, convertible bonds followed the significant decline of the underlying stocks, and the average daily trading volume decreased to 63.607 billion yuan. The CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 1.78%, the parity center decreased by 5.4% to 108.3 yuan, and the conversion premium rate center increased by 4.8% to 23.5%. In terms of style, high - price, small - cap, and low - rating convertible bonds performed poorly this week, while high - rating and low - price convertible bonds had smaller declines [14].