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——转债周度跟踪20260320:重回起点,平衡转债开始出现机会-20260322
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-22 05:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core View of the Report - This week, against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, the equity market declined significantly, with small and micro - cap stocks experiencing large drops. Although the equal - weighted and weighted declines of convertible bonds were smaller than those of their underlying stocks, their anti - decline performance compared to the underlying stocks was not prominent compared to the fourth quarter of last year. This is because the valuation of convertible bonds continued to compress significantly, mainly in the balanced and bond - biased areas. There were many individual bonds in the balanced area experiencing a "double - kill" of parity and valuation, and the valuation of new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and bonds that did not undergo downward revisions in the bond - biased area also compressed significantly. Currently, the valuation of the convertible bond market has basically returned to the level at the end of last year, and the valuation has dropped to a short - term neutral range. If there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of convertible bond valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average (corresponding to a par premium rate of around 28%), and investors can seize the rebound opportunity. Structurally, considering the uncertainty of the equity market trend, there are still potential risk points such as near - maturity, downward revisions, and high valuations in the bond - biased and stock - biased areas. Recently, medium - term balanced convertible bonds with a large decline in valuation have relatively more advantages in both offense and defense [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - Different from the previous pattern where convertible bonds actively compressed valuation while the underlying stocks were relatively stable, this week, due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, the equity market declined significantly, and small and micro - cap stocks had large drops. The anti - decline performance of convertible bonds compared to the underlying stocks was not prominent, mainly because the valuation compression was concentrated in the balanced and bond - biased areas. The convertible bond market valuation has returned to the end - of - last - year level, and if there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average. Medium - term balanced convertible bonds are relatively more advantageous [4][7]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The escalating US - Iran conflict led to a continued increase in crude oil prices, a significant cooling of domestic risk appetite, and a large - scale compression of convertible bond valuation. The par premium rate dropped 1.7% to 30.1%, breaking through the key point. The valuation compression was mainly concentrated in the balanced and bond - biased areas, and the valuation of new bonds that had not entered the conversion period compressed by more than 5%. The compression range shifted from high - parity to medium - and low - parity intervals. In the 70 - 130 yuan parity interval, the valuation compression was about 2% - 3%, and the compression in the extremely low - parity area below 70 yuan was relatively large. In terms of individual bonds, in the high - parity interval above 140 yuan, some individual bonds such as Yitian, Dazhong, and Huachen had strong valuation performance, with an increase of more than 10%. In the 100 - 140 yuan parity interval, there were many "double - kill" individual bonds. In the bond - biased area below 100 yuan, new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and bonds that did not undergo downward revisions had the largest valuation compression. As of now, the valuation of convertible bonds in the 80 - 100 yuan parity interval and in the 1 - 2 - year and 4 - 5 - year term intervals is still slightly higher than the end - of - last - year level [6][8][10]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 2 convertible bonds including Yuanxin and Huicheng announced redemptions, and 6 announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 25%. Currently, there are 30 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements and have not been delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted bonds is 9.9 billion yuan [6][27]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Ruike proposed a downward revision, and 4 convertible bonds including Qiaoyin, Lanfan, and Baolai announced downward - revision results. Only Baolai did not revise to the bottom, and the others all revised to the bottom. As of now, 81 convertible bonds are in the temporary non - downward - revision range, 19 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the downward - revision condition but has not issued an announcement, 22 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board plans but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [6][35]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Tiannai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. As of now, 1 convertible bond has issued a conditional put - option announcement, 11 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 10 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 1 proposed a downward revision [6][38]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.4 billion yuan; there are 12 convertible bonds in the listing - committee approval process, with a to - be - issued scale of 11.9 billion yuan [40].
转债周度跟踪:重回起点,平衡转债开始出现机会-20260322
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-22 05:11
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, against the backdrop of the escalating conflict between the US and Iran, the equity market declined significantly, with small and micro - cap stocks experiencing large drops. Although the equal - weighted and weighted declines of convertible bonds were smaller than those of their underlying stocks, their resistance to decline was not prominent compared to the fourth quarter of last year. This is because the valuation of convertible bonds continued to compress significantly, mainly in the balanced and debt - biased zones. There were many individual bonds in the balanced zone with "double kills" of parity and valuation, and the valuation compression of new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and bonds that did not undergo downward revisions in the debt - biased zone was also large. Currently, the convertible bond market valuation has basically returned to the level at the end of last year, and the valuation has dropped to a short - term neutral range. If there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of convertible bond valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average (corresponding to a 100 - yuan premium rate of around 28%), and rebound opportunities can be grasped. Structurally, considering the uncertainty of the equity market trend, the debt - biased and equity - biased zones still have potential risk points such as near - maturity, downward revisions, and high valuations. Recently, medium - term balanced convertible bonds with significant valuation declines have relatively strong offensive and defensive advantages [4][7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's Viewpoint and Outlook - Different from the previous pattern where convertible bonds actively compressed valuations while underlying stocks remained relatively stable, this week, due to the escalating US - Iran conflict, the equity market declined significantly, especially small and micro - cap stocks. The equal - weighted and weighted declines of convertible bonds were smaller than those of underlying stocks, but their anti - decline ability was not prominent compared to Q4 last year. Valuation compression was mainly in the balanced and debt - biased zones. The convertible bond market valuation has basically returned to the end - of - last - year level, and if there is a substantial negative impact, the phased low of valuation is expected to be around the 250 - day moving average. Considering market uncertainties, medium - term balanced convertible bonds have offensive and defensive advantages [4][7]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The escalating US - Iran conflict led to a continuous rise in crude oil prices, a significant cooling of domestic risk appetite, and a large decline in small and micro - cap stocks. Convertible bond valuations continued to compress significantly. After removing outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate dropped 1.7% to 30.1%, breaking below the +1 standard deviation level. Valuation compression was mainly in the balanced and debt - biased zones, and new bonds not in the conversion period had a compression rate of over 5%. The compression range shifted from high - parity to medium - and low - parity intervals, with a 2% - 3% compression in the 70 - 130 yuan parity interval and a relatively large compression in the below - 70 - yuan extremely low - parity interval. In the high - parity interval above 140 yuan, individual bonds like Yitian, Dazhong, and Huachen had strong valuation performance, with an increase of over 10%. In the 100 - 140 yuan parity interval, there were many "double - kill" individual bonds. In the below - 100 - yuan debt - biased interval, new bonds, near - maturity bonds, and non - downward - revised bonds had the largest valuation compression, and Longda had broken below the bond floor with a high default expectation. Currently, the convertible bond market valuation has returned to the end - of - last - year level, but the valuation of the 80 - 100 yuan parity interval and the 1 - 2 - year and 4 - 5 - year maturity intervals is still slightly higher than that at the end of last year [6][8][13]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 2 convertible bonds including Yuanxin and Huicheng announced redemptions, and 6 announced non - redemptions, with a forced redemption rate of 25%. There are currently 30 convertible bonds that have issued forced redemption or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted, and the potential conversion or maturity balance of forced - redeemed and matured convertible bonds among the non - delisted ones is 9 billion yuan. There are 40 convertible bonds currently in the redemption process, 6 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, 13 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers, and 13 are expected to enter the forced - redemption counting period within the next month [28][31]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Ruike proposed a downward revision, and 4 convertible bonds including Qiaoyin, Lanfan, and Baolai announced downward - revision results. Only Baolai did not revise downward to the bottom, and the others did. Currently, 81 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 19 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 1 has triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price and no announcement has been made, 22 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued downward - revision board proposals but have not gone to the general meeting of shareholders [36]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, Tiannai Convertible Bond issued a conditional put - option announcement. Currently, 1 convertible bond has issued a conditional put - option announcement, 11 are accumulating put - option trigger days, 10 of which are also accumulating downward - revision days, and 1 has proposed a downward revision [39]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 4 convertible bonds in the approval - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 6.4 billion yuan; and 12 in the listing - committee approval process, with a to - be - issued scale of 11.9 billion yuan [41].
可转债周报:估值分层之后的松动-20260316
SINOLINK SECURITIES· 2026-03-16 15:38
1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation stratification of convertible bonds has loosened. Last week, the average premium rate of high - parity bonds continued to decline, and the valuation of low - parity debt - biased bonds also adjusted slightly. The market valuation stratification remains obvious, with the average premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity of over 110 at the 87% quantile since 2024, that of bonds with a parity between 80 - 110 at the 92% quantile, and that of bonds with a parity between 70 - 80 above the 95% quantile. The performance of high - price and low - price indexes also reflects this stratification. The high - price index's YTD return has dropped to 3.1% from its peak, while the low - price index still has a 4.08% YTD return, leading among various indexes and experiencing small recent drawdowns. The difference in returns and valuation stratification imply investors' current participation mentality. High - volatility and high - parity bonds are the first to be cashed out when the equity market fluctuates and there are call - back disturbances, and they are also the best offensive tools in an upward market. In contrast, relatively low - price debt - biased bonds are more resilient in market fluctuations and are currently “reluctantly sold” by the market. From the capital aspect, convertible bond ETFs have been the largest marginal pricing funds since the beginning of the year, but they turned to net outflows last week. Currently, the implied volatility of convertible bonds significantly exceeds the historical volatility of the corresponding underlying stocks, and the underlying stocks have been in a volatility - decreasing trend since September 2025. The convertible bond valuation structure is still fragile after short - term adjustments. If the Iran - US conflict continues to exceed expectations, it may lead to a further adjustment in the A - share market. If the profitable funds flowing into convertible bonds this year turn into losses, it may form a negative feedback loop in capital flow, and the loosened valuation may decline further [2]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Valuation Stratification after Loosening - Due to the recent re - pricing of call - back provisions and the large number of bonds meeting the call - back conditions, high - price bonds have been collectively adjusted. Last week, the average premium rate of high - parity bonds continued to decline, with the average conversion premium rate of bonds with a parity of over 130 compressing from 14.3% to 12.8%, returning to the level in November 2025. Different from previous weeks, the valuation of debt - biased bonds also loosened, with a significant decline in the premium rate of the debt - biased part. The valuation stratification is significant, with the average premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity of over 110 at the 87% quantile since 2024, that of bonds with a parity between 80 - 110 at the 92% quantile, and that of bonds with a parity between 70 - 80 above the 95% quantile [10][11]. - The performance difference between different indexes since the beginning of the year is obvious. The YTD return of the CSI Convertible Bond Index is 3.4%. The YTD return of the high - price index has dropped to 3.1% from its peak, while the low - price index still has a 4.08% YTD return, leading among various indexes. High - price convertible bonds feature high volatility, high drawdown, and relatively low returns, while low - price convertible bonds show low volatility, low drawdown, and relatively high returns at present [15]. - The difference in returns and valuation stratification imply investors' current participation mentality. High - volatility and high - parity bonds are the first to be cashed out when the equity market fluctuates and there are call - back disturbances, and they are also the best offensive tools in an upward market. In contrast, relatively low - price debt - biased bonds are more resilient in market fluctuations and are currently “reluctantly sold” by the market. Convertible bond ETFs have been the largest marginal inflow and pricing funds since the beginning of the year. The net inflow of two convertible bond ETFs once reached 20 billion yuan, becoming the main driver for the valuation increase of convertible bonds this round. As of now, the scale of the two convertible bond ETFs exceeds 75 billion yuan, accounting for 11% of the convertible bond market. However, they turned to net outflows last week. Since March, the Iran - US geopolitical conflict has continuously exceeded market expectations, leading to a significant increase in the VIX index and oil price volatility. The main A - share indexes have also declined since March, and high - risk - appetite assets represented by the technology sector have been significantly adjusted. So far, the YTD returns of various convertible bond indexes are still above 3%, and the funds flowing in since the beginning of the year are still in a floating - profit state. The implied volatility of convertible bonds is 46%, significantly exceeding the 42% historical volatility of the corresponding underlying stocks in the past 250 trading days, and the ratio is still at 110%, in a historically high range. The underlying stocks have been in a volatility - decreasing trend since September 2025, and the convertible bond valuation structure is still fragile. If the Iran - US conflict continues to exceed expectations, it may lead to a further adjustment in the A - share market, which will drive the parity of convertible bonds to adjust. If the profitable funds flowing into convertible bonds this year turn into losses, it may form a negative feedback loop in capital flow, leading to an accelerated adjustment of convertible bonds [17][22][25]. 3.2 Market Review 3.2.1 Equity Market: Volatile Adjustment - Last week, the Shanghai Composite Index and the ChiNext Index changed by - 0.70% and 2.51% respectively. Affected by the continuous overseas geopolitical conflict, the indexes continued to adjust, with significant differentiation among sectors. In terms of style, affected by the Iran - US geopolitical conflict exceeding expectations, the expectation of coal chemical industry replacing petrochemical industry emerged, so the coal sector continued to rise sharply, while the petrochemical sector fell sharply. The basic chemical sector continued to rise due to the expectation of an increase in industrial chain prices. At the same time, driven by the logic of power shortage and computing power coordination, the public utilities, power equipment, and building decoration sectors rose sharply. The national defense and military industry and media sectors led the decline [28]. - Index valuations continued to decline. The market first rose and then fell last week, but still ended lower overall, and valuations also declined. The PE (TTM) of all A - shares was 18.39X, down from the previous period, at the 67% quantile of the historical valuation level since 2005. The PE (TTM) of the ChiNext was 45.27X, continuing to decline, at the 49.4% quantile of the historical valuation level since 2009. Valuations among sectors were highly differentiated, but the overall level was not low. Affected by geopolitical factors, there was significant differentiation among sectors last week. The valuations of the leading coal, power equipment, and building decoration sectors increased by 1.6X, 0.01X, and 0.46X respectively, while the valuations of the lagging national defense and military industry, petrochemical, and non - ferrous metal sectors decreased by 9.57X, 0.29X, and 1.45X respectively. The valuation of the electronics sector has reached a historical high, and the valuations of other sectors such as computers, automobiles, and the military industry are above the historical median. There are also many sectors whose valuations are still close to the historical median. Only the valuations of sectors such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, household appliances, food and beverages, and building decoration, which are more related to consumption and real estate, are still around the 10% quantile of history. The market valuation differentiation has converged but is still large, and the overall valuation level is not low [30][34]. 3.2.2 Convertible Bond Market: Valuation Continued to Adjust - Last week, the CSI Convertible Bond Index closed at 508.67, down 1.1%, with a decline comparable to that of major stock indexes. In terms of trading volume, the average daily trading volume was 69.051 billion yuan, down 5.47% from the previous period, and trading volume declined slightly. Among individual bonds, Haitian (42.33%), Wankai (19.63%), and Baichuan Zhuan 2 (16.2%) led the gains, belonging to the environmental protection, basic chemical, and basic chemical sectors respectively. Haitian was a newly - listed bond, and Hebang was a repair of the premium rate after the announcement of no early call - back. The rest followed the performance of the underlying stocks. Fenggong (- 18.67%), Yong 22 (- 18.14%), and Zhenhua (- 17.61%) led the losses, belonging to the machinery equipment, basic chemical, and basic chemical sectors respectively. Yong 22 and Fenggong announced early call - backs, driving the adjustment, and the rest followed the adjustment of the underlying stocks [36]. - Valuations continued to decline. The conversion premium rate (arithmetic average) of convertible bonds with a parity between 90 - 110 was 36.5%, slightly compressed from the previous week. The valuation of current balanced convertible bonds is above the 98% quantile of history. The average YTM of convertible bonds with a parity below 80 was - 3.0%, recovering slightly from before but still at a historical low. In terms of absolute prices, as of last Friday, the median closing price of convertible bonds was 138.3 yuan, above the 95% quantile since 2020, falling another 2 yuan from the previous week. The proportion of convertible bonds with an absolute price below 120 was only 7.5%, and has been within 10% since the beginning of the year [39]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Call - Back Clause - Last week, 9 individual bonds announced early call - backs, namely Saili Convertible Bond, Yong 22 Convertible Bond, Baichuan Zhuan 2, Zhongchong Zhuan 2, Guangli Convertible Bond, Hongqiang Convertible Bond, Fenggong Convertible Bond, Weice Convertible Bond, and Liyang Convertible Bond. In addition, 6 individual bonds have not announced the last trading day and the last conversion day. Last week, 4 individual bonds announced no early call - backs, namely Titan, Yubang, Weidao, and Hebang. Only Titan was a renewal of the no - early - call - back announcement, and the rest were first announcements. This week, the following convertible bonds are expected to meet the early call - back conditions and announce, among which those with a premium rate still above 15% are Fuchun, Huayuan, Sanjiao, and Jinji [44][45][46]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision Clause - Last week, 1 convertible bond proposed a downward revision, which was Weining. 3 convertible bonds announced the dates of no downward revision, which were Like, Shengtai, and Kehua. Among them, Kehua will not have a downward revision before maturity, and the other two have a 6 - month no - downward - revision cooling - off period. This week, 5 individual bonds are expected to meet the downward - revision conditions, namely Guanyu, Sanfang, Jiete, Ruike, and Fulai [48][49][50]. 3.4 Primary Market - There was no new bond issuance last week. One company issued a convertible bond issuance plan, which was Zhongke Environmental Protection (1 billion yuan). Two companies' convertible bond issuances were accepted by the exchange, which were Qianhong Pharmaceutical (1 billion yuan) and Tianshan Electronics (697.02 million yuan). One company's convertible bond issuance passed the approval of the issuance review committee, which was Diweier (907.71 million yuan). One company obtained the approval and reply from the CSRC, which was Star Semiconductor (1.5 billion yuan) [50][51].
转债周度跟踪20260313:估值压缩明显扩散,转债负凸-20260314
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-14 13:33
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Recently, convertible bonds have shown a "negative convexity" characteristic, with returns and drawdowns significantly worse than the underlying stocks. The compression of convertible bond valuations started in the first week after the Spring Festival. Although the equity market performed well during this period, there was an obvious structural shift, and the technology sector was weak. Additionally, non - callable convertible bonds generally entered the second round of call - counting periods. Despite the decent performance of the underlying stocks, high - parity convertible bonds, new bonds, and sub - new bonds actively compressed their valuations due to poor expectations. Subsequently, the conflict between the US and Iran impacted global risk appetite, causing a surge in oil prices and a weak and volatile domestic equity market. The compression of convertible bond valuations spread comprehensively, and the valuations in the debt - biased and balanced intervals also declined significantly. From a rolling perspective, the 100 - yuan premium rate has returned to around the +1 standard deviation level, and the central value has significantly shifted down from the previous high. In the short term, convertible bond valuations have compressed to a stage - low. With the expectation of a mid - term slow - bull equity market, the convertible bond market has shown a certain cost - effectiveness, and opportunities for individual bonds with certain cost - effectiveness in valuation can be actively explored [1][5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Weekly Viewpoint and Outlook - Convertible bonds have a "negative convexity" feature, performing worse than underlying stocks. The valuation compression started after the Spring Festival, affected by market structure shift, call - counting periods, and the US - Iran conflict. Currently, the 100 - yuan premium rate is around +1 standard deviation, and the convertible bond market has cost - effectiveness [1][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - Due to the surge in oil prices caused by the US - Iran conflict and the new round of Sino - US economic and trade consultations, the domestic equity market stabilized compared to last week, with small and micro - cap stocks relatively weak. Convertible bonds continued to digest valuations this week. After removing outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate decreased by 0.5% to 31.8%, roughly equal to the +1 standard deviation level. This week, the valuation compression spread from high - parity and long - duration bonds to other intervals, showing a universal full - interval compression. The compression in the debt - biased and balanced convertible bonds was generally over 1%. From a term perspective, the valuation compression of new bonds over 5.5 years was close to 4%, and the compression in the 2 - 4 - year interval was also relatively large. In terms of individual bonds, high - parity bonds above 140 yuan with large valuation compression were mostly those in the call progress or about to enter the call - counting period, with obvious pre - emptive characteristics, and the valuation compression due to call expectations was about 10%. Other bonds with large valuation compression in the balanced and debt - biased intervals were mostly new bonds that had not entered the conversion period. Bonds around 3 years, such as Yake and Daimei, also had relatively large valuation compression due to the downward trend of the underlying stocks. In addition, the valuations in the extremely low - parity area below 60 yuan were generally compressed [4][6][9]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 9 convertible bonds, including Fenggong and Liyang, announced redemptions, and 4 announced non - redemptions, with a call rate of 69%. Currently, there are 31 convertible bonds that have issued call or maturity redemption announcements but have not delisted. Among the non - delisted bonds, the potential conversion or maturity balance of call and maturity bonds is 12.2 billion yuan. There are currently 47 convertible bonds in the redemption progress. 12 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 11 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 13 convertible bonds are expected to enter the call - counting period within the next month [23][27]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Weining Convertible Bond proposed a downward revision, and no convertible bond announced the result of the downward revision. As of now, 79 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 18 cannot be revised downward due to net asset constraints, 0 have triggered the condition and the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price but have not issued an announcement, 21 are accumulating days for downward revision, and 6 have issued the board of directors' pre - plan for downward revision but have not gone to the shareholders' meeting [31]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, no convertible bond issued a conditional put option announcement. As of now, 4 convertible bonds are accumulating days to trigger the put option, among which 1 is also accumulating days for downward revision, and 3 are in the non - downward - revision interval [33]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of now, there are 6 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 5.3 billion yuan; there are 9 convertible bonds in the process of passing the listing committee, with a to - be - issued scale of 8.2 billion yuan [35].
转债现在真的高估了吗?
集思录· 2026-03-12 13:46
Core Viewpoint - The current high valuation of convertible bonds is influenced more by structural changes in the market, such as reduced supply and an increase in the proportion of smaller bonds, rather than a general overvaluation of convertible bonds themselves [10]. Group 1: Market Data Analysis - The analysis of the overall remaining scale and equal-weight index of convertible bonds shows that the price median has reached 140, leading to concerns about overvaluation [1][2]. - A decrease in the remaining scale indicates reduced new bond supply, while the scale of existing bonds decreases as they are converted, resulting in a higher proportion of smaller bonds [4]. - The equal-weight index is affected by the price volatility of smaller bonds, which can be significantly influenced by concentrated capital, thus raising the overall index [4][5]. Group 2: Equal-Weight Index Dynamics - The equal-weight index's movement is influenced by the price difference between newly issued bonds and those exiting the index, with a tendency for new bonds to be priced lower than exiting bonds, which can elevate the index [6][7]. - The current high equal-weight index does not necessarily indicate that convertible bonds are overpriced; rather, it reflects changes in market structure with more smaller bonds [7][12]. Group 3: Valuation Metrics - The median conversion premium rate has shown a downward trend alongside the rising equal-weight index, indicating a complex relationship between these metrics [8]. - A more objective method for assessing market valuation has not been identified, and existing analyses have not yielded clear patterns [8][10]. - The most reasonable approach to evaluate convertible bond valuation is to categorize them based on their conversion value and analyze the median conversion and pure bond premium rates within those categories [13].
【债券日报】:转债市场月度跟踪20260311-20260311
Huachuang Securities· 2026-03-11 14:49
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - On March 11, 2026, half of the convertible bonds in the market rose, and the valuation increased compared to the previous day. The trading sentiment in the convertible bond market heated up, with the trading volume of the convertible bond market reaching 64.842 billion yuan, a 0.75% increase from the previous day. The total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 252.8294 billion yuan, a 4.61% increase from the previous day [2]. - The convertible bond price center increased, and the proportion of high - price bonds rose. The overall weighted average closing price of convertible bonds was 142.13 yuan, a 0.28% increase from the previous day. The proportion of bonds with a closing price above 130 yuan was 78.18%, a 1.1 - percentage - point increase from the previous day [3]. - The convertible bond valuation increased. The fitted conversion premium rate of the 100 - yuan par value was 40.84%, a 0.99 - percentage - point increase from the previous day [3]. - In the A - share market, more than half of the underlying stock industry indices rose, with 17 industries rising. In the convertible bond market, 15 industries rose [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Main Index Performance - The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 0.34% compared to the previous day, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.25%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78%, the ChiNext Index rose 1.31%, the SSE 50 Index rose 0.12%, and the CSI 1000 Index rose 0.16% [2]. - In terms of market style, mid - cap value stocks were relatively dominant. Large - cap growth stocks rose 1.13%, large - cap value stocks rose 0.93%, mid - cap growth stocks rose 0.05%, mid - cap value stocks rose 1.59%, small - cap growth stocks fell 0.08%, and small - cap value stocks rose 1.20% [2]. Market Fund Performance - The trading volume of the convertible bond market was 64.842 billion yuan, a 0.75% increase from the previous day; the total trading volume of the Wind All - A Index was 252.8294 billion yuan, a 4.61% increase from the previous day. The net outflow of the main funds in the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 19.257 billion yuan, and the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.20bp to 1.81% [2]. Convertible Bond Valuation - After excluding convertible bonds with a closing price > 150 yuan and a conversion premium rate > 50%, the 100 - yuan par value fitted conversion premium rate was 40.84%, a 0.99 - percentage - point increase from the previous day; the overall weighted average par value was 107.27 yuan, a 0.97% increase from the previous day [3][16]. - The conversion premium rates of all types of convertible bonds classified by stock - bond nature decreased. The conversion premium rate of balanced convertible bonds decreased by 0.62 percentage points [28]. Industry Performance - In the A - share market, the top three rising industries were coal (+2.53%), power equipment (+2.43%), and basic chemicals (+2.08%); the top three falling industries were national defense and military industry (-1.37%), media (-1.17%), and electronics (-0.78%) [4]. - In the convertible bond market, the top three rising industries were petroleum and petrochemicals (+3.04%), coal (+1.81%), and steel (+0.74%); the top three falling industries were non - ferrous metals (-2.87%), national defense and military industry (-1.83%), and electronics (-1.24%) [4]. - In terms of different sectors: the closing price of the large - cycle sector increased by 0.13%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.38%, the technology sector decreased by 0.96%, the consumer sector decreased by 0.14%, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.38%. The conversion premium rate of the large - cycle sector decreased by 0.9 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.64 percentage points, the technology sector increased by 0.92 percentage points, the consumer sector decreased by 0.51 percentage points, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.37 percentage points. The conversion value of the large - cycle sector increased by 1.04%, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.05%, the technology sector decreased by 1.73%, the consumer sector decreased by 0.39%, and the large - finance sector increased by 0.70%. The pure bond premium rate of the large - cycle sector increased by 0.21 percentage points, the manufacturing sector decreased by 0.62 percentage points, the technology sector decreased by 1.7 percentage points, the consumer sector decreased by 0.19 percentage points, and the large - finance sector decreased by 0.45 percentage points [4][5]. Industry Rotation - The coal, power equipment, and basic chemical industries led the rise. The coal industry had a daily increase of 2.53% in the underlying stocks and 1.81% in convertible bonds. The power equipment industry had a daily increase of 2.43% in the underlying stocks and 0.22% in convertible bonds. The basic chemical industry had a daily increase of 2.08% in the underlying stocks and 0.12% in convertible bonds [52].
转债周度跟踪:新券和次新券估值连续2周压缩-20260307
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-03-07 13:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The conflict between the US and Iran has disturbed the domestic risk appetite, causing the equity and convertible bond markets to decline simultaneously. However, the market shows some resilience due to the policy expectations of the Two Sessions. The convertible bond market focuses on new bond valuations and call risks. After last week's active valuation compression of high - parity convertible bonds, the decline in the valuation of high - parity convertible bonds has significantly narrowed this week, and the difference in valuation changes in the term distribution is more obvious. The valuations of new and sub - new bonds with a remaining term of more than 5 years have decreased significantly. Looking forward, the policy is positive, and the domestic equity market is expected to rise, but attention should be paid to avoiding call and near - maturity convertible bond risks [3][6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week's Viewpoint and Outlook - The conflict between the US and Iran has affected the domestic risk appetite, leading to a decline in the equity and convertible bond markets. But the market shows resilience due to the Two Sessions' policy expectations. The convertible bond market focuses on new bond valuations and call risks. After last week's valuation compression of high - parity convertible bonds, the decline in their valuation has narrowed this week. The valuations of new and sub - new bonds with a remaining term of more than 5 years have decreased significantly. One reason is the unexpected call of Anji Convertible Bond and the general entry of sub - new bonds into the second round of call progress, increasing the expected call probability. The other is the poor performance of the equity market and the large retracement of the technology sector, which has led to a convergence of optimistic sentiment about the underlying stocks, causing the valuations of new and sub - new bonds to decline in line with the underlying stocks. The decline of new and sub - new bonds is greater than that of the whole market this week. In the future, the policy is positive, and the domestic equity market is expected to rise, with a focus on avoiding call and near - maturity convertible bond risks [3][6]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - The domestic equity and convertible bond markets are greatly affected by news. The risk appetite is still impacted by the US - Iran conflict, but the market shows some resilience due to the Two Sessions' policy expectations. The convertible bond valuation shows a weak and volatile performance. After removing outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate has decreased by 0.4% to 32.3%, which is significantly lower than the 2 - standard - deviation level. - This week, the convertible bond valuation continues to show a structural compression feature, with more obvious differences in the term distribution. The valuations of new and sub - new bonds with a term of more than 5 years are still significantly compressed. The conversion premium rates in each parity range have generally decreased month - on - month. The valuation in the parity range above 140 yuan has decreased by 2.7%, and the decline has narrowed compared with last week, but the valuation compression of new and sub - new bonds is still large, with the valuation of new bonds with a term of more than 5.5 years compressed by more than 5%. - From the perspective of individual bonds, the valuations of new and sub - new bonds with a remaining term of more than 5 years have generally decreased. The bonds with a large month - on - month decline in valuation, such as Tianzhun, Weidao, Kaizhong, Shangtai, and Jin 25, have a decline of more than 10%, which is mostly related to the significant decline of the underlying stocks. In addition to new and sub - new bonds, the convertible bonds with a large month - on - month decline in valuation in the parity range above 120 yuan are mostly affected by call expectations, such as Liyang, Zhenhua, Zhongchong Zhuan 2, and Yong 02, and their latest conversion premium rates have been compressed to less than 10%, implying a strong call expectation. - As of the latest, in terms of parity, the valuation of the 90 - 110 yuan parity range is resilient, and the quantile is still close to 100%. The quantiles of other parity ranges have loosened significantly. In terms of term, the valuation quantiles of the 1 - 2 - year and 3 - 4 - year term ranges are close to 100%, while those of the 2 - 3 - year and less - than - 1 - year term ranges are relatively low [5][7][11]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 3 convertible bonds, including Anji, Hengyi, and Zhonghuan Zhuan 2, announced redemptions, and 0 announced non - redemptions, with a call rate of 100%. Currently, there are 26 convertible bonds that have issued call or maturity redemption announcements but have not been delisted. Among the non - delisted convertible bonds, the potential conversion or maturity balance of call and maturity convertible bonds is 10.9 billion yuan. - Currently, there are 52 convertible bonds in the redemption progress. 17 are expected to meet the redemption conditions next week, and 18 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 10 convertible bonds are expected to enter the call counting period within the next month [21][22][25]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, 3 convertible bonds, including Wentai and Qiaoyin, proposed downward revisions, and Bairun Convertible Bond announced the downward revision result, with the revision reaching the bottom. As of the latest, 81 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision interval, 19 cannot be downward - revised due to net asset constraints, 0 have triggered the downward - revision condition but the stock price is still lower than the trigger price and no announcement has been made, 21 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 5 have issued downward - revision board plans but have not held a general meeting of shareholders [26]. 3.3.3 Put Option - No convertible bond issued a conditional put option announcement this week. As of the latest, 1 convertible bond has issued a put option announcement, and 3 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 1 is also accumulating downward - revision days, and 2 are in the non - downward - revision interval [29]. 3.4 Primary Issuance - As of the latest, there are 4 convertible bonds in the approval - registration progress, with a to - be - issued scale of 3.6 billion yuan; there are 9 convertible bonds in the listing - committee - approval process, with a to - be - issued scale of 8.8 billion yuan [31].
转债:3月,转债波动中做结构
CAITONG SECURITIES· 2026-03-02 06:06
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In February, the index showed high - level fluctuations. The CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by about 0.89% in February, significantly lower than the 5.82% increase in January. The convertible bond market was still in a range of systematic over - valuation and high volatility. After mid - February, the median full - scale conversion premium rate and implied volatility declined from local highs [3]. - In terms of style, the valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds compressed significantly by 5.91pct after the Spring Festival, more than that of debt - biased, balanced, and super debt - biased convertible bonds. This was due to profit - taking and the high concentration of positions after the pre - Spring Festival rally, as well as the pre - emptive risk - avoidance of potential callable bonds [3]. - In terms of industry allocation, there was a style switch in February. Sectors such as media, home appliances, national defense and military industry, steel, and consumer services showed strong elasticity, while some previously soaring technology sectors entered a phase of consolidation or high - level fluctuations [3]. - On the supply and demand side, under the new refinancing regulations, the supply side may gradually improve. In February, the convertible bond market had a net exit, but the monthly acceptance speed of new bonds was the highest since the "827" new policy in 2023 and the new "Nine - Point Plan" in 2024 [3]. - In March, the convertible bond market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. It is recommended to select bonds structurally in the fluctuations. Given the high valuation and geopolitical conflicts, the risk appetite may contract periodically. It is advisable to wait for the valuation to decline before going long [3]. - The top ten convertible bonds recommended for March are Libo, Huayi, Wankai, Hengyi, Haoyuan, Liyang, Huachen, Ruike, Jingce 2, and Zhongbei [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 2 - month Convertible Bond Market Review - Index performance: In February, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose by about 0.89% and closed at 525.2 points on February 27, significantly lower than the 5.82% increase in January. Before the Spring Festival (February 2 - 13), it rose to 526.44 points with a stage increase of about +3.61%. After the Spring Festival (February 24 - 27), it fell to 525.20 points, down about - 1.05% [7]. - Comparison with mainstream stock indexes: It underperformed small - cap stocks but was stronger than broad - based indexes. Its elasticity in February was between the CSI 300 and the CSI 1000, with a lower increase than the CSI 1000 (+3.71%) but higher than the CSI 300 (+0.09%) [7]. - Valuation: The convertible bond market was still systematically over - valued and highly volatile. As of February 27, 2026, the 100 - yuan premium rate was about 36.6%, corresponding to about the 97th percentile since 2018. After mid - February, the median full - scale conversion premium rate and implied volatility declined from local highs [10][11]. - Style valuation: The valuation of equity - biased convertible bonds compressed significantly by 5.91pct after the Spring Festival, mainly due to profit - taking and high - concentration risk, as well as the pre - emptive risk - avoidance of potential callable bonds [11]. - Industry allocation: There was a style switch in February. Media, home appliances, etc. showed strong elasticity, while some technology sectors entered a phase of consolidation. Financial and consumer sectors had mixed performance [12]. - Capital: In February, the holding face - value of Shanghai - listed convertible bonds and exchangeable bonds by insurance institutions (- 8.36%), QFII&RQFII (- 7.50%), etc. decreased significantly. The decline in the holdings of enterprise annuities and insurance may explain the valuation compression at the end of February [15]. - Supply: In February, the convertible bond market had a net exit of 66.53 billion yuan, with a month - end scale of 523.6 billion yuan. Three new convertible bonds were listed, and seven issuance plans were accepted, reaching the highest number since 2023. Under the new refinancing regulations, the supply may increase in the future [18]. 3.2 March: Structuring in Convertible Bond Fluctuations - Market outlook: In March, the convertible bond market is expected to fluctuate at a high level. Given the high valuation and geopolitical conflicts, the risk appetite may contract periodically. It is necessary to focus on defense and control drawdowns, and wait for the valuation to decline before going long [21]. - Market rhythm: The spring market has entered the "second half". The Two Sessions and the first - quarter reports will shift the market from "expectation - driven" to "performance - verified". In the medium term, the "broad fiscal + broad monetary" pattern remains unchanged, and convertible bonds still have allocation value [21]. - Market risks: Geopolitical conflicts may lead to oil price increases, which may impact the market through the oil - inflation - interest rate - stock market sentiment chain. The current high valuation makes the convertible bond market sensitive to equity market fluctuations and clause changes [22]. - Investment strategy: Adopt a "defense - first, balanced - structure" approach. Control positions to avoid excessive exposure at high valuations. Shift from high - elasticity to balanced and undervalued allocations. Pay attention to clause risks of medium - priced, near - maturity, and high - redemption - progress bonds [23]. 3.3 Individual Bonds: Top Ten Convertible Bonds in March - Defense - end bonds: Focus on medium - priced, large - cap, high - credit, low - premium, and liquid balanced or debt - biased convertible bonds, such as those related to banks, public utilities, high - dividend leaders, and some resource leaders [24]. - Offense - end bonds: Select individual bonds in high - growth sectors such as technology and resource sectors, avoiding those driven solely by valuation. The recommended ten convertible bonds are Libo, Huayi, Wankai, Hengyi, Haoyuan, Liyang, Huachen, Ruike, Jingce 2, and Zhongbei [24]. 3.4 Market One - Week Performance - Index performance: As of Friday's close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose 1.98% to 4162.88 points, and the CSI Convertible Bond Index fell 0.23% to 525.20 points. The top - three rising sectors in the stock market were steel (11.80%), non - ferrous metals (9.74%), and basic chemicals (6.21%); the top - three falling sectors were media (- 4.44%), consumer services (- 4.02%), and food and beverages (- 1.50%) [26]. - Convertible bond performance: 169 convertible bonds rose, accounting for 46%. The top - five gainers were Aiwei Convertible Bond (72.02%), Youcai Convertible Bond (21.16%), etc.; the bottom - five losers were Huicheng Convertible Bond (- 18.37%), Weidao Convertible Bond (- 16.84%), etc. 59 convertible bonds' conversion premium rates increased, accounting for 16%. The top - five in valuation change were Shuangliang Convertible Bond (21.69%), Youcai Convertible Bond (14.41%), etc.; the bottom - five were Honglu Convertible Bond (- 61.04%), Ruike Convertible Bond (- 25.73%), etc. [28] 3.5 Important Shareholders' Convertible Bond Reduction - This week, Diou Water issued a convertible bond reduction announcement. Many companies' major shareholders have reduced their holdings of convertible bonds [35][36]. 3.6 Convertible Bond Issuance Progress - This week, Opto - Technology Co., Ltd. (1.38 billion yuan) and Shenling Environment Co., Ltd. (1 billion yuan) passed the general meeting of shareholders; Zuoli Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (1.556 billion yuan) and Zhenyu Technology Co., Ltd. (1.88 billion yuan) were accepted by the exchange [37][38]. 3.7 Private EB Project Update - This week, there was no progress update on private EB projects [38]. 3.8 Style & Strategy: Small - scale, Low - rated, Debt - biased Bonds Prevail - This week, the small - scale, low - rated, debt - biased style of the convertible bond market was dominant. As of the last trading day of this week, the excess return of high - rated convertible bonds relative to low - rated ones was - 0.57pct, that of large - scale relative to small - scale was - 0.03pct, and that of equity - biased relative to debt - biased was - 0.04pct [39]. 3.9 One - Week Convertible Bond Valuation Performance: Fluctuation of 100 - yuan Premium Rate - The 100 - yuan premium rate of the convertible bond market fluctuated upward this week. As of the last trading day of this week, it reached 36.59%, up 0.69% from the last trading day before the holiday, at the 98.3% historical percentile in the past six months and 99.2% in the past year. The median full - scale conversion premium rate decreased by 4.86pct to 29.17%, and the market - value - weighted conversion premium rate (excluding banks) decreased by 3.28pct to 41.5% [46]. - Extreme pricing: As of the last trading day of this week, there was 1 convertible bond below par value, 1 below the bond floor, and 1 with a YTM greater than 3%, at the 11%, 20.7%, and 4% historical percentiles since 2016 respectively [51]. - YTM: The median YTM of bank convertible bonds was - 5.69%, 7.51pct lower than the 3 - year AAA corporate bond yield; the median YTM of AA - to AA + debt - biased convertible bonds was - 4.89%, 6.9pct lower than the 3 - year AA corporate bond yield [51].
转债周度跟踪20260227:如何理解高平价转债主动压估值?-20260228
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2026-02-28 13:16
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Report's Core View - The A - share market had a good start at the beginning of the year, but convertible bonds ended slightly lower. The poor performance of convertible bonds compared to their underlying stocks was mainly due to the significant valuation compression of high - parity convertible bonds. This compression was widespread, with the largest compression in bonds with strong - redemption potential, new and sub - new bonds, possibly related to poor expectations for the technology sector and expectations of increased convertible bond supply. Although short - term negative factors may impact high - parity convertible bonds, the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds is expected to emerge after the active valuation compression [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week's View and Outlook - The A - share market had a good start in the new year, but convertible bonds ended slightly lower, underperforming their underlying stocks. The large - scale valuation compression of high - parity convertible bonds was the main cause. In the parity range above 140 yuan, there were two main types of significant valuation compression: one was due to the progress of strong redemption, such as Huicheng, Ruichuang, etc.; the other was the active valuation compression of new and sub - new bonds, such as Dinglong, Luwei, etc. Other high - parity convertible bonds also generally saw valuation compression, with only a few bonds that unexpectedly did not trigger strong redemption seeing a valuation increase. This compression may be related to poor technology sector expectations and increased supply expectations. Short - term negative factors may impact high - parity convertible bonds, but the cost - effectiveness of convertible bonds may appear after valuation compression [1][5]. 3.2 Convertible Bond Valuation - In the first week of the new year, the A - share market had a good start, with the main line switching to the "price - increase" cycle sector, while the technology sector performed poorly. The conversion premium rate of high - parity convertible bonds was actively compressed. With outliers retained, the 100 - yuan premium rate declined by over 3 percentage points. After excluding outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate dropped 0.2% to 32.7%. Without excluding outliers, the 100 - yuan premium rate declined 3.3% [6]. - This week, convertible bond valuations were significantly compressed, with convertible bonds underperforming their underlying stocks. The conversion premium rate of convertible bonds with a parity above 140 yuan was compressed by nearly 5%. The conversion premium rates in each parity range generally declined, with the most significant compression in the high - parity range above 140 yuan, including new, sub - new, and high - parity convertible bonds. The conversion premium rate in the medium - and low - parity ranges declined by about 1% [8]. - From an individual bond perspective, in the parity range above 140 yuan, there were two main types of significant valuation compression: due to strong - redemption progress (e.g., Huicheng, Ruichuang) and active compression of new and sub - new bonds (e.g., Dinglong, Luwei). Other high - parity convertible bonds also generally saw valuation compression. In other parity ranges, new, sub - new, and near - maturity bonds had relatively weak valuation performance [9]. - As of the latest data, the quantile of the conversion premium rate in each parity range generally declined. The quantiles in the high - parity range above 110 yuan showed significant changes, while those in the medium - and low - parity ranges remained close to 100% [13]. 3.3 Clause Tracking 3.3.1 Redemption - This week, 4 convertible bonds (Jiayuan, Songlin, Hongbai, Haiyou) announced redemption, and 8 announced non - redemption, with a strong - redemption rate of 33%. Currently, there are 22 convertible bonds that have announced early redemption or maturity redemption but have not yet delisted, with a potential conversion or maturity balance of 11.9 billion yuan for these non - delisted bonds [18]. - There are currently 49 convertible bonds in the redemption process. Next week, 10 are expected to meet the redemption conditions, and 21 are expected to issue announcements of potential redemption triggers. In addition, 12 convertible bonds are expected to enter the strong - redemption counting period within the next month [20]. 3.3.2 Downward Revision - This week, Lanfan and Baolai convertible bonds proposed downward revisions, and Honglu convertible bond announced the result of a downward revision to the lowest level. As of the latest, 89 convertible bonds are in the non - downward - revision period, 20 cannot be downward - revised due to net - asset constraints, 0 have triggered the condition but the stock price is still below the downward - revision trigger price without an announcement, 16 are accumulating downward - revision days, and 3 have issued board proposals for downward revision but have not yet gone to the general meeting of shareholders [24]. 3.3.3 Put Option - This week, no convertible bonds issued conditional put - option announcements. As of the latest, 1 convertible bond has issued a put - option announcement, and 3 are accumulating put - option trigger days, among which 2 are also accumulating downward - revision days and 1 is in the non - downward - revision period [26]. 3.4 Issuance - As of the latest, there are 5 convertible bonds in the approved - registration process, with a to - be - issued scale of 4.4 billion yuan; 7 convertible bonds have passed the listing committee process, with a to - be - issued scale of 7 billion yuan [29].
量化点评报告:中证转债指数调整后修复——二月可转债量化月报
GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES· 2026-02-26 10:24
- The report discusses the valuation of the convertible bond market, indicating that the pricing deviation indicator for the convertible bond market is at 14.56%, which is at the 99.8th percentile level since 2018 and 2021[1][7] - The report introduces a rotation strategy between convertible bonds and a stock-bond portfolio based on the pricing deviation indicator, where the weight of convertible bonds is adjusted according to the Z-score of the pricing deviation[11] - The low valuation strategy is constructed using the CCB_out pricing model, selecting the 15 convertible bonds with the lowest pricing deviation in each of the debt, balanced, and equity-biased categories, forming a pool of 45 convertible bonds[22] - The low valuation + strong momentum strategy combines the pricing deviation factor with the momentum factor of the underlying stock, using the equal-weighted scores of the stock's momentum over the past 1, 3, and 6 months[25] - The low valuation + high turnover strategy selects the 50% of convertible bonds with the lowest valuation and then uses the turnover rate factor to select the most actively traded convertible bonds[29] - The balanced debt-enhanced strategy selects the 50% of convertible bonds with the lowest valuation, removes equity-biased convertible bonds, and uses the turnover rate factor and the momentum factor of the underlying stock for the debt-enhanced pool, and the turnover rate factor for the balanced pool[32] - The credit bond substitution strategy selects convertible bonds with a yield to maturity (YTM) + 1% greater than the YTM of 3-year AA-rated credit bonds, and then selects the 20 convertible bonds with the strongest 1-month momentum of the underlying stock[35] - The volatility control strategy selects the top 15 convertible bonds with the highest scores of low valuation + strong momentum in each of the debt-enhanced, balanced-enhanced, and equity-enhanced categories, and controls the portfolio volatility at 4%[38] - The convertible bond market pricing deviation indicator is 14.56%[1][7] - The rotation strategy between convertible bonds and a stock-bond portfolio shows stable excess returns[11] - The low valuation strategy achieves an annualized return of 20.9% and an excess return of 8.8% since 2018[22] - The low valuation + strong momentum strategy achieves an annualized return of 25.2% and an excess return of 12.7% since 2018[25] - The low valuation + high turnover strategy achieves an annualized return of 23.6% and an excess return of 11.3% since 2018[29] - The balanced debt-enhanced strategy achieves an annualized return of 22.8% since 2018[32] - The credit bond substitution strategy achieves an annualized return of 7.1% since 2018[35] - The volatility control strategy achieves an annualized return of 9.7% since 2018[38]