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G7大开绿灯,美国关税战最后一搏?中国早有警告,反击信号已拉满
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-30 14:47
Core Viewpoint - The recent G7 tax agreement appears to be a compromise between the US and its allies, but it reveals the US's strategic maneuvering to gain long-term benefits while temporarily conceding to its allies [1][3]. Group 1: Tax Agreement Details - The G7 agreement allows US tech giants to be exempt from the OECD's global minimum corporate tax rules, preventing them from paying back taxes in overseas markets [1][3]. - In exchange, the US Congress must repeal Section 899 of the US Competition Act, which authorizes the government to impose retaliatory tariffs on countries that discriminate against US companies [1][3]. Group 2: Strategic Implications - The agreement is seen as a tactical retreat by the US to secure strategic cooperation from allies in economic containment against China [3][4]. - The negotiations were dominated by the US, which threatened to initiate a "301 investigation" against the EU's digital tax and impose tariffs on European goods, leading to swift concessions from European leaders [3][4]. Group 3: European Challenges - Europe faces a triple dilemma: ceding fiscal sovereignty, being bound by US policies towards China, and internal divisions among member states regarding their stance on China [4][6]. - The new tax agreement indirectly acknowledges the "super-national treatment" of US companies, resulting in significant annual tax losses for the EU [4][6]. Group 4: China's Response - China has implemented export controls on critical metals like gallium and germanium, which are essential for Western countries, highlighting its leverage in the trade conflict [9][11]. - The Chinese government is also working to divide the US-EU alliance by approving significant orders from Airbus while halting purchases from Boeing, demonstrating the potential costs of decoupling from China [9][11]. Group 5: Future Considerations - The sustainability of US concessions is uncertain, as historical patterns suggest that the US may revert to aggressive trade tactics if allies hesitate in their pressure on China [11]. - The potential for European strategic autonomy is being tested, with leaders like Macron advocating for independence from major powers, which could pose long-term risks for US influence [11].