格隆汇8月18日丨玉马科技(300993.SZ)于近期投资者关系活动表示，受对等关税政策的影响，出口美国 的订单受到一定影响，但仍比上年同期略有增长。关税政策影响主要体现在三方面，一是政策存在不确 定性，当地客户备货与新品引进受到影响；二是市场走向不明朗，影响客户合作意愿和新品决策；三是 政策波及公司下游客户，间接影响成品出口客户。我们判断后续关税政策稳定后，美国市场的需求将继 续恢复。 ...

来源：市场资讯 （来源：华经产业研究院） 需求端看，正丙醇下游66%是醋酸正丙酯、医药中间体、农药中间体、溶剂占比12%、10%、9%，其他 领域应用占比为3%。 近年来，在下游需求市场驱动下，我国部分企业开始投资新建正丙醇产能，行业整体生产能力呈现上升 态势，市场供应规模也日益增加。据统计，2024年我国正丙醇行业产能为31万吨，产量为20.08万吨， 需求量为22.54万吨。 由于国内产能不足，正丙醇长期依赖进口，自2020年7月17日起，中国商务部对原产于美国的进口正丙 醇实施了反倾销制裁，正丙醇进口量显著下降，据统计，2024年我国正丙醇进口量为3.86万吨，出口量 为1.4万吨。目前反倾销尚未结束，在此基础上，受对等关税政策影响，进口正丙醇价格或将进一步攀 升，从而带动国内正丙醇销售价格上行。 国内正丙醇生产企业较少，截至2024年全国产能在31万吨左右，其中三维化学产能10万吨，占比 32.26%，居于全国领先。鲁西化工产能8万吨，占比25.81%，巨化股份产能5万吨，占比16.13%，南京 荣欣产能4万吨，占比12.9%。 华经产业研究院研究团队使用桌面研究与定量调查、定性分析相结合的方式，全面 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that 德翔海运 (DHL) has experienced a significant increase in stock price, rising nearly 4% and currently trading at 8.81 HKD, with a transaction volume of 31.35 million HKD [1] - The company expects to report a profit attributable to equity shareholders of approximately 180 million to 200 million USD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 220% to 255% [1] - The substantial increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the rise in average freight rates and an increase in charter income due to a higher number of vessels rented out at elevated rates [1] Group 2 - 中信建投 (CITIC Securities) notes that the Trump administration has resumed the "reciprocal tariff" policy, which has significantly altered the rhythm of freight rates [1] - During the trade war, the shipping rhythm on the China-US route became chaotic, with some goods being shipped early to avoid high tariffs, while only certain cross-border e-commerce products and exempt items could be shipped during peak tensions [1] - To circumvent tariffs, manufacturers with existing overseas factories have increased efforts to transfer intermediate products from China, leading to a substantial rise in regional shipping rates while trunk line freight rates have declined [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that 德翔海运 (DHL) is experiencing a significant increase in stock price, with a rise of nearly 4% and a current price of 8.81 HKD, driven by strong financial performance expectations for the first half of the year [1] - The company anticipates a profit attributable to equity shareholders of approximately 180 million to 200 million USD for the first half of the year, representing a year-on-year increase of about 220% to 255% [1] - The substantial increase in net profit is primarily attributed to the rise in overall average freight rates and an increase in charter income due to a higher number of vessels rented out at elevated rates [1] Group 2 - 中信建投 (CITIC Securities) notes that the reintroduction of "reciprocal tariffs" by the Trump administration has significantly altered the rhythm of freight rates [1] - During the trade war, the shipping rhythm on the China-US route became chaotic, with some goods being shipped early to avoid high tariffs, leading to a surge in regional shipping rates while trunk line freight rates declined [1] - The manufacturing sector, which already had factories overseas, has intensified efforts to reroute intermediate products from China to avoid tariffs, contributing to the fluctuations in shipping rates [1]

Core Viewpoints - The A-share market saw all three major indices rise on Wednesday, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.45%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.66%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1,733.774 billion yuan. The leading sectors included defense and military, machinery equipment, and coal, while the lagging sectors were pharmaceuticals, retail, and building materials [2][7]. - In the concept sectors, PEEK materials, China Shipbuilding System, and military equipment restructuring concepts had the highest gains, while assisted reproduction, cell immunotherapy, and hepatitis concepts saw the largest declines. In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index rose by 0.03%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 0.2%. Internationally, all three major US indices also rose, with the Dow Jones up 0.18%, the S&P 500 up 0.73%, and the Nasdaq up 1.21% [2][7]. Important News - The Ministry of Transport, the Ministry of Finance, and the Ministry of Natural Resources issued the "New Round of Rural Road Improvement Action Plan," aiming to complete the reconstruction of 300,000 kilometers of rural roads by 2027, establishing a convenient, efficient, and equitable rural road network, with a target of over 55% of administrative villages having access to public transport [3][8]. - President Trump signed an executive order imposing an additional 25% tariff on goods from India, raising the total tariff rate faced by India to 50%. This new tariff will take effect in 21 days, following the first round of 25% tariffs that will take effect on Thursday. Trump also announced a nearly 100% tariff on chips and semiconductors, with no tariffs for companies that build factories in the US [3][8]. Research Highlights - The report tracks the dynamics of the US's reciprocal tariff policy, noting that the third round of trade negotiations between China and the US took place from July 28 to 29, resulting in an extension of the current tariff truce agreement. The previously suspended 24% reciprocal tariffs and countermeasures have been extended for 90 days until November 11, 2025, maintaining an actual execution tax rate of 10% [9]. - On July 31, President Trump signed a new executive order imposing tariffs ranging from 10% to 41% on imports from 69 trading partners. Countries not listed will face a uniform 10% tariff, and goods rerouted through third countries to evade tariffs will incur a 40% transshipment tax [9]. - As of August 4, several countries and regions have reached tariff agreements with the US, with Vietnam's tariff rate set at 20%, and rates for the Philippines, Thailand, and Cambodia at 19%. Japan, South Korea, and the EU have rates of 15%, while the UK has a rate of 10%. Overall, these rates are lower than the estimated levels during the April tariff conflict, and further observation is needed regarding the final tariff agreements and exemptions for other economies [10]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the hard technology sector that have advantages in overseas layout, strong independent research and development capabilities, and high product added value. It also recommends actively seizing opportunities for domestic substitution in core areas such as semiconductors, operating systems, and high-end materials [12].

Core Points - The U.S. Trade Representative stated that the new round of tariffs imposed by President Trump on multiple countries is largely finalized and will not be adjusted during current negotiations [1] - Protests erupted in Brazil against the U.S. tariffs, which are seen as an infringement on Brazil's sovereignty [1][2] - Brazil's Vice President indicated that approximately 35.9% of Brazilian exports to the U.S. will face a combined tariff of 50% due to the new measures [2] - Brazil firmly opposes unilateral economic sanctions based on trade relations with other countries, particularly regarding U.S. demands to stop importing Russian oil [3] - Switzerland reacted strongly to the announcement of a 39% tariff, which is among the highest in the world, leading to widespread criticism of U.S. actions [4][5][6] - The Swiss economy is heavily reliant on international markets, with the U.S. accounting for 18.6% of Swiss exports in 2024 [7] - The potential impact of the tariffs could lead to a GDP decline in Switzerland, with estimates ranging from 0.3% to 0.7% depending on the pharmaceutical sector's tariff treatment [7] Summary by Sections U.S. Tariff Policy - The U.S. has set high tariffs on imports from Brazil (50%), India (25%), Canada (35%), and Switzerland (39%) [1] - The tariffs are based on bilateral trade surpluses and deficits, and are considered fixed by the U.S. administration [1] Brazil's Response - Protests occurred in major Brazilian cities against the U.S. tariffs and demands related to the investigation of former President Bolsonaro [1] - Brazil's government has stated it will not comply with U.S. conditions regarding its energy policy [3] Switzerland's Reaction - The announcement of a 39% tariff on Swiss goods has led to significant backlash from Swiss political and business leaders, who view it as an attack on their economy [4][6] - The Swiss economy is particularly vulnerable due to its reliance on exports, with major products including pharmaceuticals and machinery [7] Economic Impact - The tariffs could significantly impact Switzerland's GDP, with potential declines estimated at 0.3% to 0.7% depending on the sectors affected [7]

Core Viewpoint - The Indian government is committed to taking all necessary measures to protect its national interests in response to the U.S. imposing a 25% tariff on Indian goods starting August 1 [1]. Group 1: Government Response - Indian Minister of Commerce and Industry, Goyal, emphasized the importance of safeguarding the welfare of farmers, workers, entrepreneurs, exporters, and small and medium enterprises [1]. - The Indian government is currently assessing the impact of the U.S. President's announcement regarding bilateral trade and will take necessary actions to protect national interests [1]. Group 2: Industry Impact - The Secretary-General of the Indian Apparel Export Promotion Council, Thakur, stated that the U.S. tariff increase will negatively affect India's textile industry [1]. - Thakur criticized the U.S. government's imposition of tariffs as inconsistent with international trade rules, arguing that the so-called "reciprocal tariff" policy is based on illegal grounds [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that the agreement between the U.S. and South Korea marks a significant achievement for Trump's "reciprocal tariff" policy, with South Korea agreeing to zero tariffs on U.S. goods while facing a 15% tariff on its exports, alongside a commitment to invest $350 billion and purchase $100 billion in U.S. liquefied natural gas [1][3][9] - South Korea's compromise is characterized as a response to global economic trends, following similar concessions from Japan and the EU, indicating a pragmatic approach in the face of shifting geopolitical dynamics [3][4] - The agreement reflects a broader trend where major economies are aligning with U.S. demands, with only Canada and India resisting, highlighting the complexities of international trade negotiations and the varying strategies employed by different nations [4][7] Group 2 - Trump's tariff strategy aims to achieve four main objectives: promoting manufacturing return, increasing fiscal revenue, reducing trade deficits, and forming alliances to counter China, with current progress showing some success in these areas [9] - Despite the signing of agreements, there are concerns regarding the actual implementation of investment commitments and energy purchases, suggesting that national interests may complicate the fulfillment of these agreements [12] - The ongoing trade tensions indicate a long-term restructuring of international order, with countries needing to balance their commitments to the U.S. against their own national interests, presenting challenges for both the U.S. and its allies [12]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to report a net profit of approximately $500,000 for the six months ending June 30, 2025, compared to a net loss of about $9.7 million in the same period of 2024, indicating a significant improvement in financial performance [1] Financial Performance Summary - The anticipated improvement in financial performance is attributed to the absence of non-recurring general, administrative, and legal expenses related to U.S. customs laws during the period, which amounted to approximately $3.9 million in the same period of 2024 [1] - The overall gross margin has improved due to the resolution of previous issues and the ongoing strict cost control measures implemented by management throughout the period [1] - Financial expenses are expected to decrease from approximately $6.4 million in 2024 to about $4.8 million during the current period, driven by lower interest rates and strategic allocation of funds [1] Operational Environment Summary - Despite the expected improvement in net performance, the management believes that the overall operating environment remains highly challenging, particularly due to uncertainties arising from the U.S. reciprocal tariff policies, which have negatively impacted performance to some extent [2] - The company maintains a conservative outlook for the second half of the year and plans to continue taking proactive measures to reduce operational risks, enhance operational efficiency, cut costs, and manage cash flow rigorously [2] - The company will closely monitor market conditions and adjust business strategies as necessary [2]

Group 1 - The core issue of the US-India trade friction lies in tariff policies, with India imposing significantly higher tariffs compared to the US, leading to a trade deficit for the US [3] - In 2024, the bilateral trade volume between the US and India is projected to be approximately $129 billion, with a US trade deficit of $45.7 billion against India [3] - The Trump administration plans to implement reciprocal tariffs, which could severely impact India's export sectors such as steel, aluminum, and automobiles, potentially resulting in annual losses of about $7 billion for India [3] Group 2 - In response to US pressure, the Indian government is taking countermeasures within the framework of the World Trade Organization, including plans to impose retaliatory tariffs on US goods [3] - India is also adjusting its diplomatic strategy by seeking closer cooperation with Eastern countries, including the resumption of tourist visas for Chinese citizens, marking a significant thaw in Sino-Indian relations [4] - The bilateral trade volume between India and China is expected to reach approximately $138.5 billion in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 1.7% [6] Group 3 - India's government is actively pursuing foreign investment to stimulate its economy, allowing Chinese companies to hold up to 24% stakes in Indian firms without government approval [4] - Modi's shift towards Eastern partnerships is driven by the need to counteract economic slowdowns and foreign capital withdrawal, with China being a key target due to its market potential [6] - India is also enhancing its cooperation with other Eastern nations, such as ASEAN and Malaysia, to diversify its diplomatic strategy and balance relations between the US and China [7] Group 4 - Domestic political pressures pose challenges to Modi's strategy, particularly from farmers opposing the opening of agricultural markets to foreign products [6] - The ongoing border disputes with China may also hinder the potential for deeper bilateral cooperation [6] - The future trajectory of US-India relations and the depth of India-China cooperation will significantly influence the geopolitical landscape in the Asia-Pacific region [9]