广义财政收支再平衡

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浙商早知道-20250822
ZHESHANG SECURITIES· 2025-08-21 23:31
Market Overview - On Thursday, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.1%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.4%, the STAR Market 50 gained 0.1%, the CSI 1000 fell by 0.7%, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.5%. The Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.2% [6][7]. - The best-performing sectors on Thursday were Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery (+1.5%), Oil and Petrochemicals (+1.4%), Beauty and Personal Care (+1.0%), Utilities (+0.9%), and Media (+0.8%). The worst-performing sectors included Machinery and Equipment (-1.1%), Electric Power Equipment (-1.0%), Comprehensive (-0.7%), National Defense and Military Industry (-0.7%), and Electronics (-0.7%) [6][7]. - The total trading volume of the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets on Thursday was 24,241 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 7.46 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [6][7]. Important Recommendations - The report highlights ZTE Corporation (000063) as a communication equipment giant with significant underestimation in AI computing and network business progress. The company is positioned to be a core player in the domestic supernode market, with expectations for AI to rejuvenate ZTE [8]. - Key drivers for ZTE's growth include the successful implementation of supernode solutions by major internet companies, the release of a 51.2T switching chip, and U.S. sanctions on high-end switching chips [8]. - Revenue projections for ZTE from 2025 to 2027 are 127,048 million yuan, 136,268 million yuan, and 145,189 million yuan, with growth rates of 4.74%, 7.26%, and 6.55% respectively. Net profit estimates are 8,657 million yuan, 9,282 million yuan, and 10,072 million yuan, with growth rates of 2.76%, 7.22%, and 8.51% respectively [8]. Important Insights - The macroeconomic report indicates that the broad fiscal revenue and expenditure are at a rebalancing point, with revenue growth accelerating and expenditure growth stabilizing. The completion rate of the broad fiscal budget revenue from January to July was 43.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 3.6%, while the expenditure completion rate was 51.5%, with a year-on-year growth of 12.1% [10]. - The market has mixed views on whether fiscal policies will be intensified in the second half of the year, with the report maintaining a neutral stance on policy expectations [10]. Important Commentary - The Chinese restaurant industry is projected to grow from over 40,000 billion yuan in 2024 to over 53,000 billion yuan by 2028. Leading brands like Laoxiangji and Xiaocaiyuan are expanding rapidly, and the Green Tea restaurant has opened its first overseas store in Hong Kong [12]. - The industry shows significant growth potential with clear trends towards chain operations and international expansion. Investment opportunities include standardized chain brands, technology innovation companies, and supply chain enterprises that support the restaurant industry's growth [12].