Core Viewpoint - The year 2025 saw significant fluctuations in the pure benzene market, characterized by an initial price surge followed by a prolonged decline, with various factors contributing to a new market landscape [3][21]. Price Trends - In 2025, pure benzene prices fluctuated, with an average price of 6189.22 yuan/ton, down 25.51% from 8308 yuan/ton in 2024. The highest price was 7790 yuan/ton on February 12, while the lowest was 5275 yuan/ton on November 11 [3][21]. - The price range for pure benzene in 2025 was between 5300 and 7800 yuan/ton, with most months falling below the average prices of the past five years [5][24]. Seasonal Deviations - The seasonal price patterns in 2025 deviated significantly from historical trends, particularly in March to May, where prices were notably lower than seasonal indices due to underperformance in domestic terminal recovery and widespread losses in downstream sectors [7][26]. Import and Inventory Dynamics - The traditional correlation between import volumes and inventory levels at the East China main port broke down in 2025, as imports increased while inventory levels remained stable, only slightly rising at year-end [8][27]. - The East China main port's inventory was generally at the average level of the past five years, influenced by high operational loads in downstream industries, which shifted pure benzene into solid forms within the supply chain [10][29]. Profitability and Operational Trends - The negative correlation between downstream profitability and operational rates weakened in 2025, with significant losses reported in the first half of the year despite high operational rates [11][30]. - By the fourth quarter, both operational rates and profitability improved due to increased exports of styrene and coordinated production cuts in the caprolactam industry, leading to a relative high point in downstream profitability [12][31]. Inventory-Price Relationship - The expected negative correlation between inventory levels and prices of pure benzene was disrupted in 2025, as high inventory levels did not lead to expected price declines, indicating a shift in market dynamics [15][34]. - The structural changes in inventory and price relationships suggest that the transmission of market signals through the supply chain was not functioning effectively, leading to a different form of inventory transfer [17][36]. Future Outlook - In January 2026, pure benzene prices rose to an average of 5596.05 yuan/ton, with expectations for the year to see a price range between 5200 and 6500 yuan/ton, and an average price of approximately 5860 yuan/ton [19][39].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 郭卫玲 【导语】11月国内液化气产销节奏良好，炼厂库容率环比有所下降，但码头到港量环比增加，导致进口 气港口库存率有所上升。12月来看，民用气在成本支撑与弱需求博弈下，上游控库为先，价格或横盘整 理；醚后碳四则先受基本面疲弱压制，后随假期需求释放而有望企稳反弹。 国产气商品量减少 炼厂库存震荡下降 11月国内液化气炼厂库容率震荡收低。截至11月30日统计数据显示，LPG炼厂月末库容率为28.75%，较 上月末相比，下降1.12个百分点。 企业停车降幅现象较多，商品量显著下降。11月国内液化气商品量预估值为159.58万吨，环比下降 5.75%；日均商品量为53194吨，环比减少2.27%。商品量下降的主要影响因素为：华东中化泉州装置提 前检修、镇海乙烯本月后期开工液化气外销量减少，沿江地区保持偏低负荷运行，东北辽阳及吉林石化 减产，华南广石化进入检修期且广西石化下游装置开工后液化气外销量减少，西部宁夏地区部分炼厂检 修及资源自用，共同导致国内液化气商品量下降。当然，山东华星石化复工，华东江苏新海检修恢复， 抵消部分供应减量。 需 ...