叶倩宁 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年8月26日 | 122 | 2.07%! | 47.30% | 硅锰(SM601) | 2898 | 折算价:6517硅锰:内蒙-湖北仓单 | 6020 | 172 | 3310 | 68.10% | 螺纹钢 (RB2510) | 5.48% | HRB40020mm: 上海 | 3138 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Q235B: 4.75mm: 上海 | 35.50% | 3430 | 41 | 1.21% | 热卷(HC2510) | 3389 | ਦੇਰੇ | 7.49% | 48.60% | 折算价:62.5%巴混粉(BRBF):淡水河谷:日照港 | 846 | 787 | 铁矿石 (12601) | | | | | | 1624 | 1736 | -112 | -6.44% | 折算价:准一级冶金焦A13, S0.7 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View - Not provided in the given content 3. Summary by Categories Ferrous Metals - Silicon Iron (SF511): Futures price is 5648, up 6 (0.11%) from the previous day, with a historical quantile of 59.40%. The spot price is 5832, with a basis of 188 and a basis rate of 3.22% [1] - Silicon Manganese (SM601): Futures price is 6020, with a spot price of 6517, a basis of 497, and a basis rate of 8.25% [1] - Corn Starch (CS2511): Futures price is 2730, up 232 (9.29%), with a historical quantile of 93.50%. The spot price is 2498 [1] - Rebar (RB2510): Futures price is 3280, up 161 (5.16%), with a historical quantile of 66.20%. The spot price is 3119 [1] - Hot Rolled Coil (HC2510): Futures price is 3400, up 39 (1.16%), with a historical quantile of 34.60%. The spot price is 3361 [1] - Iron Ore (I2601): Futures price is 832, up 62 (8.05%), with a historical quantile of 50.10%. The spot price is 770 [1] - Coke (J2601): Futures price is 1624, down 54 (3.24%), with a historical quantile of 32.01%. The spot price is 1679 [1] - Coking Coal (JM2601): Futures price is 1145, down 17 (1.46%), with a historical quantile of 22.20%. The spot price is 1162 [1] Non - Ferrous Metals - Copper (CU2509): Futures price is 78830, up 140 (0.18%), with a historical quantile of 59.79%. The spot price is 78690 [1] - Aluminum (AL2510): Futures price is 20710, up 80 (0.39%), with a historical quantile of 72.50%. The spot price is 20630 [1] - Alumina (AO2601): Futures price is 3245, up 107 (3.41%), with a historical quantile of 61.23%. The spot price is 3138 [1] - Zinc (ZN2510): Futures price is 22130, down 145 (0.65%), with a historical quantile of 19.16%. The spot price is 22275 [1] - Tin (SN2509): Futures price is 266000, up 70 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 49.79%. The spot price is 265930 [1] - Nickel (NISE10): Futures price is 119650, up 40 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 57.29%. The spot price is 119610 [1] - Stainless Steel (SS2510): Information about price changes and historical quantiles is not clearly presented in a standard format, but the spot price is 13170 and the futures price is 12750 [1] - Lithium Carbonate (LC2511): Futures price is 83900, up 4940 (6.26%), with a historical quantile of 90.52%. The spot price is 78960 [1] Precious Metals - Gold (AU2510): Futures price is 771.6, down 1.8 (0.23%), with a historical quantile of 47.30%. The spot price is 773.4 [1] - Silver (AG2510): Futures price is 9182.0, down 10.0 (0.11%), with a historical quantile of 64.90%. The spot price is 9192.0 [1] Agricultural Products - Corn (C2511): Futures price is 2240, up 65 (2.99%), with a historical quantile of 77.10%. The spot price is 2175 [1] - Sugar (SR601): Futures price is 6030, up 360 (6.35%), with a historical quantile of 66.00%. The spot price is 5670 [1] - Soybean Meal (M2601): Futures price is 2980, down 108 (3.50%), with a historical quantile of 18.80%. The spot price is 3088 [1] - Soybean Oil (Y2601): Futures price is 8540, up 82 (0.97%), with a historical quantile of 9.40%. The spot price is 8458 [1] - Palm Oil (P2601): Futures price is 9490, down 102 (1.06%), with a historical quantile of 4.60%. The spot price is 9592 [1] - Rapeseed Meal (RM601): Futures price is 2540, down 3 (0.12%), with a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 2543 [1] - Rapeseed Oil (Ol601): Futures price is 10010, up 120 (1.21%), with a historical quantile of 48.30%. The spot price is 9890 [1] - Eggs (JD2510): Futures price is 3220, up 187 (6.17%), with a historical quantile of 46.20%. The spot price is 3033 [1] - Apples (AP510): Futures price is 8600, up 506 (6.25%), with a historical quantile of 40.70%. The spot price is 8094 [1] - Cotton (CF601): Futures price is 14030, up 1075 (7.66%), with a historical quantile of 69.50%. The spot price is 12955 [1] Energy and Chemicals - PX (PX511): Futures price is 6966, up 78.9 (1.13%), with a historical quantile of 47.40%. The spot price is 7044.9 [1] - Polyester Staple Fiber (PF510): Futures price is 6614, down 14 (0.21%), with a historical quantile of 40.10%. The spot price is 6600 [1] - Styrene (EB2510): Futures price is 7378, down 3 (0.04%), with a historical quantile of 25.60%. The spot price is 7375 [1] - Urea (UR601): Futures price is 1739, up 1 (0.06%), with a historical quantile of 12.40%. The spot price is 1740 [1] - PP (PP2601): Futures price is 7038, up 12 (0.17%), with a historical quantile of 26.10%. The spot price is 7050 [1] - PVC (V2601): Futures price is 4740, down 279 (5.56%), with a historical quantile of 10.00%. The spot price is 5019 [1] - LPG (PG2510): Futures price is 4478, up 91 (2.07%), with a historical quantile of 36.50%. The spot price is 4387 [1] - Asphalt (BU2510): Futures price is 3483, up 47 (1.35%), with a historical quantile of 61.50%. The spot price is 3530 [1] - Butadiene Rubber (BR2510): Futures price is 11660, up 240 (2.06%), with a historical quantile of 55.20%. The spot price is 11900 [1] - Glass (FG601): Futures price is 1173, down 113 (9.66%), with a historical quantile of 25.00%. The spot price is 1060 [1] - Soda Ash (SA601): Futures price is 1326, down 100 (8.16%), with a historical quantile of 5.88%. The spot price is 1226 [1] - PTA (TA601): Futures price is 4868, down 3 (0.06%), with a historical quantile of 51.30%. The spot price is 4865 [1] - Ethylene Glycol (EG2601): Futures price is 4474, up 36 (0.80%), with a historical quantile of 71.90%. The spot price is 4510 [1] - Methanol (MA601): Futures price is 2405, down 110 (4.57%), with a historical quantile of 10.20%. The spot price is 2295 [1] - LLDPE (L2601): Futures price is 7380, down 90 (1.22%), with a historical quantile of 4.20%. The spot price is 7290 [1] - Natural Rubber (RU2601): Futures price is 15625, down 975 (6.66%), with a historical quantile of 32.29%. The spot price is 14650 [1] Others - Industrial Silicon (SI2511): Futures price is 9250, up 505 (5.77%), with a historical quantile of 34.75%. The spot price is 8745 [1] - Stock Index Futures and Bond Futures - IC2509.CFE: Futures price is 6822.8, down 12.4 (0.18%), with a historical quantile of 64.70% [1] - IH2509.CFE: Futures price is 2942.0, up 13.4 (0.46%), with a historical quantile of 98.30% [1] - IM2509.CFE: Futures price is 7348.6, down 14.3 (0.20%), with a historical quantile of 95.30% [1] - 10 - Year Bond (T2509): Futures price is 107.66, up 0.57 (0.53%), with a historical quantile of 75.80% [1] - 2 - Year Bond (TS2509): Futures price is 100.26, up 0.03 (0.03%), with a historical quantile of 35.30% [1] - 30 - Year Bond (TL2512): Futures price is 131.64, up 1.01 (0.87%), with a historical quantile of 98.50% [1] - 5 - Year Bond (TF2512): Futures price is 99.20, up 0.10 (0.10%), with a historical quantile of 41.90% [1]

证券研究报告 | 2025年08月25日 价格全方位多维跟踪体系（2025.08） 反内卷语境看价格结构性修复 流通领域重要生产资料价格跟踪 从绝对水平来看：截至 2025 年 8 月上旬，49 种主要产品中共有 19 种价格上 涨、28 种下降、2 种持平。上涨品种主要集中在上游煤炭（如无烟煤、焦炭 等）、中游农林（豆粕、天然橡胶、瓦楞纸等）以及下游化工（硫酸、甲醇、 涤纶长丝等），表现出供需趋紧与季节性需求带动的特征；下降品种则以黑 色金属（中板、角钢、热卷）、有色金属（铜、铝、锌等）、建材（水泥、 玻璃）、部分化工（PVC、顺丁橡胶、尿素）和能源（液化气、天然气、油 品）为主。下游需求不足及供应压力较大，整体价格承压。总体来看，价格 分化明显，上游能源与部分化工品景气回升，而黑色金属和建材链继续承压。 从同比数据来看：工业品同比整体仍在下行通道，但降幅逐步磨底持平。钢 铁、部分化工品率先修复转正；有色金属、部分化工龙头品种表现亮眼，硫 酸同比涨幅收窄至 49%；而煤炭、焦炭、传统建材、部分石化产品则仍深处 低位，市场进入"结构性修复+行业间分化"阶段。 上/中/下游不同产业链节点代表产品价格变化 近一月 ...

8月25日，国内商品期货收盘，主力合约多数收涨，焦煤涨超6%，燃料油涨超5%，焦炭涨超4%，BR橡 胶、集运欧线、铁矿石、玻璃涨超2%，沪银、纯碱、锰硅、氧化铝、液化气涨超1%。跌幅方面，碳酸 锂、苯乙烯、尿素小幅下跌。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 LPG数据日报 | 国贸期货研究院 | 从业资格证号：F3071622 | 2025/8/25 | | 投资咨询证号: Z0014205 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 行情综述 | | 指标 | 现值 | 前值 | 单位 | 收盘价 | 4393 | 4387 | -0.14% | 元/吨 | -6.00 | 2025年8月22日，国内液化气市场价格下跌，平均价格为4422元 | | | | | | | | | | | | PG2510.DCE | 4392 | 0.14% | 国内蒙面 | 4386 | 元/吨 | 结算价 | 6.00 | /吨，较上一工作日价格下跌4元/吨，跌幅-0.09%。期货盘面主力合约 | -3.13% | -6 ...

公司报告 | 半年报点评 中国石化（600028） 证券研究报告 油价下行导致业绩短期承压，"反内卷"或扭转局面 2025H1 业绩因多方面因素承压明显 2025H1 公司实现收入 14090.5 亿，同比-10.6%，归母净利润 214.8 亿，同 比-39.8%，主要是因为油价走低，库存减利，国内汽柴油销量和价差均下 行，航煤、芳烃等产品毛利下滑。 或因减油增化趋势，化工板块受产能集中投放、芳烃等产品盈利下滑、装 置集中检修等因素，上半年经营亏损 42 亿元，同比增亏 11 亿。后续我们 预计"反内卷"政策红利或扭转化工亏损局面。 面临成品油达峰问题，销量下滑明显 由于国内成品油需求达峰问题较为严峻，营销板块汽柴煤油销量同比分别 -4.9%/-6.8%/-8.4%，实现价格分别-6.4%/-8.2%/12.7%，营销板块收益 80 亿， 同比-67 亿（同比-45.7%）。 资本开支继续放缓，利好长期盈利和现金流能力 公司计划下调全年资本开支 5%左右，或利好长期盈利和现金流能力。 2025H1 资本开支 438 亿（同比-14%），其中上游/炼油/化工/销售分别 276/55/73/28 亿，主要炼油/ ...

格隆汇8月19日丨凯美特气(002549.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司主营业务不涉及智慧教育，公司主要产品 有高纯二氧化碳、氢气、液化气、戊烷、电子特气等，广泛应用于电子、化工、饮料、食品、烟草、石 油、冶金、农业等领域。 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年8月17日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 | | 国产方面，液化气总商品量52.1万吨，较上周环比减少1.6%；其中，民用气商品量21.6万吨（-0.6%），醚后商品量17.6万吨（+/-0.0%）； | | --- | --- | | | 当前，国内民用气商品量已修复至24年同期水平，而醚后碳四商品量则处于高位水平。进口方面，中美关税暂停延期，提振中国对美源丙 | | 供应 | 烷采购兴趣，FEI贴水走窄；而巴拿马运河拥堵，美国墨西哥湾装船延迟。本周美国向中国丙烷发运量Kpelr目前统计为5万吨，中东向中国 | | | LPG发运量有所减少；隆众口径中国国际船到港量较上周环比增加6.0万吨至68.3万吨，以山东为主，东北地区上周一船延迟至本周。而 | | | Kpler统计下周美国丙烷发运量将较本周环比大幅增加，建议关注货物流向。成本端，国际原油偏弱震荡，国际丙烷价格上行空间有限。 | | 需求 | 民用燃烧方面，气温偏高，需求仍维持季节性疲弱；不过，夏秋交替 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Views of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, option strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes analysis of the underlying asset's market, research on option factors, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly as sellers, along with spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Overview of Underlying Futures Markets - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4] 3.2. Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume and open interest PCR indicators for different option varieties are provided, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset's market and the turning points of the market [5]. 3.3. Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure and support levels of different option underlying assets are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the maximum open interests of call and put options [6]. 3.4. Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The implied volatility indicators of different option varieties are presented, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and their changes, as well as historical volatility and the difference between implied and historical volatility [7]. 3.5. Option Strategies and Suggestions for Different Varieties 3.5.1. Crude Oil Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Last week, US crude oil inventories decreased due to increased exports, and gasoline and distillate inventories also declined. The market showed a pattern of short - term rebound受阻 and facing pressure [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a short - term weak and volatile market. The pressure level was 600 and the support level was 490 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.5.2. LPG Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Factory inventories showed a slight decrease, and port inventories were at a high level and fluctuating. The market was short - term bearish [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options remained at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level was 5400 and the support level was 4200 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a bearish - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.3. Methanol Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Methanol production and capacity utilization increased, and the market showed a weak upward trend with pressure [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options decreased and fluctuated below the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level was 2600 and the support level was 2300 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a bearish - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.4. Ethylene Glycol Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Ethylene glycol inventories decreased, and the market showed a weak and wide - range volatile pattern [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level was 4450 and the support level was 4400 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a short - volatility strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [11]. 3.5.5. Polypropylene Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Polypropylene inventories decreased, and the market showed a weak upward trend with pressure [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options fluctuated around the historical average. The open interest PCR decreased to below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 7300 and the support level was 6500 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, there is no suggestion. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [12]. 3.5.6. Rubber Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Rubber imports increased, and the market showed a short - term weak upward trend with pressure [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options increased rapidly and then decreased to around the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60. The pressure level was 16000 and the support level was 14000 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot hedging, there is no suggestion [13]. 3.5.7. PTA Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: PTA inventories decreased, and the market showed a weak and volatile pattern [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuated at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 5000 and the support level was 4450 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot hedging, there is no suggestion [14]. 3.5.8. Caustic Soda Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Caustic soda production was high, demand was low, and the price was under pressure. The market showed a short - term upward trend with pressure [15]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options was at a high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 3000 and the support level was 2400 [15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, there is no suggestion. For spot collar hedging, construct a long collar strategy [15]. 3.5.9. Soda Ash Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Soda ash inventories were high, production increased, and the market showed a volatile pattern with support [15]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options increased rapidly and then decreased significantly but was still at a high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 1640 and the support level was 1200 [15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is a suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a short - volatility combination strategy. For spot long hedging, construct a long collar strategy [15]. 3.5.10. Urea Options - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: Urea inventories decreased, and the market showed a low - level volatile pattern [16]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuated slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 1900 and the support level was 1700 [16]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: For directional strategies, there is no suggestion. For volatility strategies, construct a bearish - biased short call + put option combination strategy. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [16].

Group 1 - Domestic commodity futures night trading opened with mixed results, with gold down 0.24% and silver down 0.83% [1] - Iron ore decreased by 0.83%, while coking coal fell by 0.86% [1] - Glass increased by 0.74%, and pulp rose by 0.38% [1] Group 2 - Crude oil declined by 0.21%, while liquefied gas increased by 0.7% [1] - Soda ash saw a rise of 1.4% [1]