Report Overview - **Report Title**: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report - **Report Date**: February 8, 2026 - **Author**: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Views LPG - Short - term geopolitical disturbances are strong, but the fundamental drivers are downward. The market will maintain a wide - range oscillation pattern in the short term, and the medium - to long - term drivers are downward [3]. Propylene - The fundamentals remain tight, but the upward driving force is weakening. The spot price of propylene is expected to fluctuate within a range before the holiday [4]. Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot and basis/USD cost trends are firm, domestic civil prices are slightly adjusted, and ether - after prices have weakened significantly. International propane prices have fluctuated, and freight rates remain high [7]. Supply - Total domestic LPG commodity volume is 549,000 tons (+0.9%), civil gas is 225,000 tons (-2.8%), and ether - after is 180,000 tons (+6.1%). US, Canadian, and Middle Eastern LPG shipments have different trends, and China's propane supply has increased [33][67][78]. Demand & Inventory - PDH operating rate has slightly increased, and MTBE operating rate has remained flat. LPG refinery inventory is at a neutral level, civil gas is de - stocking, ether - after is accumulating inventory, and terminal inventory is mainly accumulating [79]. Balance Sheet - In the first quarter, propane is expected to remain seasonally strong; in the second quarter, supply will return to normal, and the tight supply - demand pattern is expected to ease [114]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propane buying support is strong, PDH costs have further increased, and propylene prices have adjusted narrowly. The upstream and downstream prices of the propylene industry chain have changed, and the import window remains closed [115][117]. Balance Sheet - Supply has increased and demand has decreased this week. In January and February, the supply - demand was in a tight balance, and it is expected to be looser in March [135][157]. Supply - Weekly propylene output is 1.17 million tons (+19,000), and the operating rate is 72% (+1.2%). Refinery, cracking, PDH, and MTO operating rates have different changes [161][163]. Demand - The operating rates of propylene downstream products such as PP, PP powder, PO, acrylonitrile, etc. have changed, and the profits of some products have been compressed [201]. Downstream Inventory - PP and related powder inventories, as well as other downstream inventories such as acrylonitrile and phenol, have different changes [284].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iran situation; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [3] 2. Core View of the Report - The energy sector has been significantly affected by the Iran situation. The news of the planned negotiation between Iran and the US led to a sharp decline in oil prices, but the situation has since become more complex, increasing market concerns and causing a rebound in the geopolitical premium of crude oil. The agreement between the US and India will reduce the consumption capacity of Russian oil and support international oil prices. The rise in crude oil prices has led to an increase in downstream energy and chemical products including LPG. The Iran situation remains uncertain, and the upcoming negotiation between the US and Iran on February 6 may cause market fluctuations [1] - From the perspective of LPG's fundamentals, there are both bullish and bearish factors. Overseas supply has tightened marginally, and Saudi Arabia has raised its February CP. However, high raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in a negative feedback on demand. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG market. The game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disrupted the market, especially for the PG2603 contract. If the impact of the macro and geopolitical factors weakens, the market may enter a range - bound state again. In the medium term, the LPG balance sheet is expected to have an oversupply situation, and the supply side has relatively high elasticity [2] 3. Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On February 4, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3790 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4200 - 4520 yuan/ton; East China market, 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4840 - 5130 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; South China market, 4798 - 4890 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 620 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 610 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4746 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4669 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 612 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 602 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4685 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton, and butane was 4608 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation. Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options strategies are not provided [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is still affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to run with a slight upward trend in the short term, but the medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the global balance sheet is in a state of oversupply [1] - The upward trend is driven by the geopolitical risks in Iran and the cold wave in the United States, while the market also faces resistance such as high raw material import costs and price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On January 29, the regional prices of LPG in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4360 - 4450 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3940 - 4100 yuan/ton, North China market 4150 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4780 - 5080 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4300 - 4470 yuan/ton, and South China market 4790 - 4900 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 635 US dollars/ton and 625 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4876 yuan/ton and 4838 yuan/ton in RMB, up 15 yuan/ton and 54 yuan/ton respectively [1] - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 622 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton and 7 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4815 yuan/ton and 4777 yuan/ton in RMB, up 15 yuan/ton and 54 yuan/ton respectively [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: Not provided - Cross - variety: Not provided - Spot - futures: Not provided - Options: Not provided

Core Viewpoint - Domestic civil gas prices have strengthened again in January, with prices reaching 4471 yuan/ton as of January 13, an increase of 141 yuan/ton compared to the end of December [1] Group 1: Price Trends - The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) has risen more than expected, contributing to the increase in domestic gas prices [1] - International market prices remain high, leading to a weakened willingness to import at domestic terminals [1] - The price increase is supported by recovering winter combustion demand and rising crude oil prices [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a significant delay in unloading from some aging vessels, resulting in sellers having ample inventory [1] - The overall supply-demand situation remains tight, providing support for the market, although the price increase has led to domestic prices being significantly higher than imported prices [1] - The gap between industrial and civil gas prices continues to widen, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Domestic civil gas prices are expected to fluctuate at high levels in the near term [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market shows an "external strong and internal weak" pattern recently, with overseas supply tightening marginally and geopolitical tensions rising. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG disk, and the game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market. In the medium - term, the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied, and the potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On January 13, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4370 - 4460 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3910 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4200 - 4400 yuan/ton, East China market 4350 - 4550 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4700 - 5050 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4900 - 5000 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 600 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In South China, propane was 592 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 587 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton [1] - The disk continues to fluctuate strongly, the external market is firm, and the spot rose steadily yesterday, but there is differentiation among varieties. Ether - after carbon four is still weaker than civil gas. The market has an "external strong and internal weak" pattern, and the global balance sheet is expected to be oversupplied in the medium - term. The potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, mainly on the sidelines in the short term, pay attention to the situation in Iran; Inter - period: None; Inter - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core View - Recently, the market has been oscillating and strengthening, with overall rising spot prices but differentiation among varieties. The LPG market continues the pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally recently and the external market price has been relatively firm, the domestic market's reaction has been limited. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas has exerted additional pressure on the PG market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has brought disruptions to the market. The core is that the global balance sheet still has an expectation of oversupply, and the endogenous driving force of the market is limited. The potential upside risk comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between the US and Iran further escalates and Iran's LPG supply declines, it will lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, so continuous attention should be paid to the situation [1] Market Analysis - On January 12th, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4370 - 4460; Northeast market, 3910 - 4150; North China market, 4170 - 4380; East China market, 4300 - 4550; Yangtze River market, 4650 - 5000; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350; South China market, 4850 - 4930 [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China, was 598 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton, and butane was 593 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4615 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton, and butane was 4577 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in South China, China, was 590 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton, and butane was 585 US dollars/ton, up 4 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 4554 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton, and butane was 4515 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton [1] Charts - The report contains charts including Shandong civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - East China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][10] - South China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - North China civil liquefied gas spot price [3][12] - Northeast civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Yangtze River civil liquefied gas spot price [3][14] - Shandong ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - East China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][19] - North China ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Northeast ether - after carbon four spot price [3][22] - Yangtze River ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - Northwest ether - after carbon four spot price [3][21] - PG futures main contract closing price [3][25] - PG futures index closing price [3][25] - PG futures near - month contract closing price [3][28] - PG futures near - month spread [3][28] - PG futures main contract trading volume and open interest [3][29] - PG futures total trading volume and open interest [3][29]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Futures - spot: None [2] - Options: None [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic LPG spot price fluctuated on January 7, 2026, with the ether - after carbon four market being relatively weak. The LPG market shows a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally and the external market price is relatively strong, the domestic market's response is limited. The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas suppresses the PG disk. The increase in registered warehouse receipts also suppresses the disk structure. In the short - term, the fundamentals have both positive and negative factors. In the medium - term, the overseas supply is expected to continue growing, and the global balance sheet is still expected to have oversupply. The escalation of the geopolitical situation may lead to a tightening of LPG supply [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On January 7, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4400 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3890 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market, 4080 - 4420 yuan/ton; East China market, 4300 - 4500 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4780 - 4950 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4200 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4800 - 4950 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of February 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 593 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 588 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4582 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4543 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 586 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton, and butane was 581 US dollars/ton, down 3 US dollars/ton. The RMB price of propane was 4528 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, and butane was 4489 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton [1] - The domestic civil gas spot price fluctuated on the previous day. The ether - after carbon four market was weak, with prices generally falling. In East China, civil gas was stable, and industrial gas was weakly adjusted. Due to poor crude oil performance, downstream sentiment was cautious, upstream sales were average, and market expectations were weak [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, short - term wait - and - see, focus on the geopolitical situation in the Middle East [2] - Inter - period, inter - variety, futures - spot, and option strategies: None [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The domestic LPG market showed mixed trends this week. The internal market fluctuated, with prices rising on Wednesday due to the high - opening of CP and then falling back. The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected. Overall, the Venezuelan event may affect crude oil and disturb LPG prices. The overseas LPG market has near - term support. The internal valuation is high relative to the external, but the basis is low. The feedback of strong spot but poor PDH profits may emerge, and subsequent drivers may be bearish. Attention should be paid to oil prices and PDH device conditions [1] Summary by Directory Daily Situation - On Wednesday, the LPG futures market remained strong, possibly due to the rising prices of the LPG external market and downstream products. The 02 - 03 spread was 83 (-11), and the 03 - 04 spread was -165 (+20). As of 8 pm, the FEI and CP paper - cargo prices were 513.25 and 524.25 US dollars respectively, down 3.5 and 1.5 US dollars from the previous trading day [1] Weekly Situation - This week, the internal market fluctuated. On Wednesday, it soared after the high - opening of CP and then declined. The 02 basis was 118 (-92), the 02 - 03 spread was 119 (+7), the 03 - 04 spread was -184 (+14), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6398 (+30). Domestic civil gas prices were divided. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong civil gas at 4250 (-20); prices in East China were 4376 (-8), and in South China were 4590 (+80). The external market rose, and the 1 - month CP official price opened higher than expected, with propane and butane at 520/525 (+35/+30) respectively. The internal and external prices strengthened mainly because the external market fell on Friday while the internal market was closed. The PG - FEI reached 85 (+25). The arrival - at - shore premium of propane in East China was 66 (-18), and the 1 - month FOB premiums of AFEI, Middle - East, and US propane were 8.25 (-10.5), 50 (+0), and 37.8 (-5.21) respectively. Freight rates decreased. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -15 (down 5.5 month - on - month) [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 郭卫玲 【导语】11月国内液化气产销节奏良好，炼厂库容率环比有所下降，但码头到港量环比增加，导致进口 气港口库存率有所上升。12月来看，民用气在成本支撑与弱需求博弈下，上游控库为先，价格或横盘整 理；醚后碳四则先受基本面疲弱压制，后随假期需求释放而有望企稳反弹。 国产气商品量减少 炼厂库存震荡下降 11月国内液化气炼厂库容率震荡收低。截至11月30日统计数据显示，LPG炼厂月末库容率为28.75%，较 上月末相比，下降1.12个百分点。 企业停车降幅现象较多，商品量显著下降。11月国内液化气商品量预估值为159.58万吨，环比下降 5.75%；日均商品量为53194吨，环比减少2.27%。商品量下降的主要影响因素为：华东中化泉州装置提 前检修、镇海乙烯本月后期开工液化气外销量减少，沿江地区保持偏低负荷运行，东北辽阳及吉林石化 减产，华南广石化进入检修期且广西石化下游装置开工后液化气外销量减少，西部宁夏地区部分炼厂检 修及资源自用，共同导致国内液化气商品量下降。当然，山东华星石化复工，华东江苏新海检修恢复， 抵消部分供应减量。 需 ...

1. Report Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints LPG Part - Short - term demand is strong, but long - term demand is under pressure. Combustion demand is supported by the arrival of the peak season, and chemical demand remains high despite deep losses in PDH. However, the supply situation in the Middle East is expected to ease, and North American supply may increase, putting downward pressure on the medium - term trend [3][4]. Propylene Part - There is an expectation of increased supply, and the upward driving force is limited. Next week, the supply will increase as restarted devices gradually increase their loads, while demand is weak, and the tight supply - demand situation in Shandong is expected to ease [7]. 3. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic LPG spot prices and basis: Civil gas prices in various regions have changed to varying degrees, with the basis widening. The prices of other LPG types and their basis have also shown different trends [10]. - Regional quotes, discounts, and freight: Asian demand is stable, and the arbitrage space from the US Gulf to the Far East has narrowed [22]. - Propane prices: The prices of AFEI, Propane CP M1, and Propane MB have all fluctuated to some extent [32][33][34]. Supply - US propane shipments have increased month - on - month, and Asian buying interest is high. Canadian propane shipments have also changed. Middle East LPG shipments are in short supply, and shipments are delayed. The total LPG commodity volume is 51.7 million tons (- 0.9%), and the propane commodity volume has decreased by 55,000 tons in terms of import arrivals [40][48][49][70][79]. Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH operating rate has increased slightly, and MTBE operating rate has remained flat. Domestic LPG refinery inventory is lower than the same period last year, civil gas refinery inventory has decreased, and LPG terminal import cargo inventory has decreased overall [84][86]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - Propylene industrial chain prices: Propane costs are in a consolidation range, propylene prices are relatively strong driven by demand, and PDH profits are relatively stable month - on - month. PP powder and pellet trends are in a narrow range, PO prices are strong, and butanol and octanol profits have improved significantly [117][119]. - Propylene prices: International/US dollar prices have increased slightly, and domestic prices are in a consolidation range driven by demand [121][129]. Balance Sheet - Propylene industrial chain operating rates: The overall upstream operating rate of propylene is 74.1% (- 0.1%). The operating rates of various production methods and downstream products have changed to different degrees [139]. - National propylene balance sheet: The supply and demand situation has changed monthly, and the balance in December shows that the supply - demand pressure in the Shandong market is still high, maintaining a weak outlook [141][158]. - Shandong propylene balance sheet: The supply and demand in Shandong have changed monthly, and the current situation shows that the supply - demand pressure is relatively high [150][153]. Supply - Overall upstream propylene operating rate is 74.1% (- 0.1%). The operating rates of refineries, cracking units, PDH, and MTO have all changed. Some major PDH and MTO devices have restarted or are in the process of restarting, and some are planning to shut down [169][185][191]. - Propylene imports and exports: The import arbitrage space has been repaired [201]. Demand - Downstream propylene: The operating rates of PP, PP powder, PO, acrylonitrile, acrylic acid, n - butanol, octanol, phenol - acetone, and ECH have all changed. Some major devices have started, stopped, or adjusted their loads [204][221][230][243][248][257][263][267][278]. Downstream Inventory - PP and powder inventory: The inventories of PP producers, traders, and ports, as well as PP powder inventory, have all changed to some extent [282]. - Other downstream inventories: The inventories of phenol, acetone, acrylonitrile, etc., in warehouses have also shown different trends [292][293][295].