国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 日期：2025年11月23日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 | | 本周LPG观点：下游需求分化，关注成本变动 | | --- | --- | | 供应 | 国产方面，液化气总商品量50.6万吨，较上周环比减少0.9%；其中，民用气商品量20.4万吨（+0.3%），醚后商品量17.4万吨（-1.6%）；当前， | | | 国内民用气商品量处于低位水平，而醚后碳四商品量维持高位。国际市场供应方面，美国丙烷库存环比回落，中东供应偏紧；需求方面，亚洲 | | | 裂解极限进料叠加燃烧旺季来临，国际采购热情较高，买盘支撑周前期丙烷价格上行；成本传导则主要于周后期体现，原油大幅下挫带动丙烷 | | | ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For LPG, demand improvement is limited and the futures valuation is high. The supply of domestic civil LPG is at a low level while the supply of etherified C4 remains high. The international propane price is strong. In the short term, there is a drive for the valuation to decline due to factors such as compressed PDH device profits [3][4]. - For propylene, the supply - demand pattern is expected to improve slightly. The current supply - demand is relatively loose, leading to a weak downward trend in prices. Next week, the supply is expected to contract and demand is expected to be stable, so there is an expectation of a stop - fall and rebound [7]. Summary by Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - Domestic spot prices of civil LPG fluctuate narrowly, and import costs increase significantly. For example, the price of Shandong civil LPG decreased by 60 yuan/ton week - on - week. FEI and CP are strong, and the import cost is supported. The FEI discount converges, the US - Far East arbitrage space expands, and the freight rate center moves up [9][22]. Supply - US propane shipments increase, with the increment mainly going to Asia. Middle East LPG shipments show different trends, and the total LPG commodity volume in China is 53.1 tons, a 1.2% week - on - week decrease. The propane supply in China is 71.21 tons, a 89.34% week - on - week increase, mainly due to an increase in international ship arrivals [36][66][78]. Demand & Inventory - The PDH operating rate increases and the MTBE operating rate remains stable. The inventory of LPG refineries is at a neutral level year - on - year with limited changes this week. The inventory of LPG terminals is at a relatively high level year - on - year, and the inventory in East China accumulates significantly [81][90][97]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - The international/US - dollar price of propylene further corrects, and the domestic price declines weakly and hits a new low. The profit of some upstream and downstream industries shows different trends, such as the significant contraction of PDH profit [106][111][119]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of some units in the propylene industry chain change. The national supply and demand of propylene are expected to change slightly in the future. For example, the supply in November 2025 is expected to decrease slightly, and the demand is also expected to decrease slightly [127][132][136].

Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: October 19, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao, Zhao Shucen [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating was provided in the report. Core Views LPG - This week, LPG's civil price declined due to international oil prices and a loose domestic supply - demand pattern; import costs dropped as FEI and CP decreased. The contract rebounded from previous lows. In the short - term, chemical demand is weak, and supply is affected by macro and policy uncertainties. Attention should be paid to macro factors, import costs, and international geopolitical situations [3]. Propylene - This week, domestic propylene prices declined due to changes in supply and demand. Supply decreased slightly, and demand weakened significantly. Next week, supply is expected to increase slightly, and demand will improve, but the loose pattern will continue. Propylene prices are expected to remain weak with limited downside [4]. Summary by Directory LPG - Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices, including those of civil gas and other types, generally declined this week. Import gas prices also showed a downward trend, and the basis of various types of LPG changed significantly [7]. - The US - Far East freight dropped sharply, and the spreads between FEI and CP showed opposite trends. Propane prices weakened significantly [14][23]. LPG - Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly due to the substitution of cracking raw materials. Canadian propane shipments decreased slightly. Qatar, UAE, Kuwait, and other Middle Eastern countries' LPG shipments showed different trends. China's LPG imports decreased, and the total LPG commodity volume increased slightly [32][40][59]. - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 55.0 tons (+1.3%), with civil gas at 22.2 tons (+1.8%). Propane imports decreased by 12.9 tons [62][71]. LPG - Demand & Inventory - The开工 rates of PDH and MTBE decreased slightly. In terms of inventory, LPG refinery and port inventories were at a high level year - on - year and mainly decreased month - on - month (except in Shandong) [77][86][96]. Propylene - Price & Spread - Upstream prices of the propylene industry chain generally declined, and propylene prices also decreased. The prices of downstream products in the propylene industry chain showed different trends, and the profits of some products changed significantly [107][109]. - International and domestic propylene prices both showed a downward trend, with international prices having a slight correction from high levels and domestic prices running weakly [110][118]. Propylene - Balance Sheet - The开工 rates of the propylene industry chain changed this week, with some devices having decreased开工 rates. The supply and demand of propylene in the national balance sheet showed different trends in different months, and the inventory decreased slightly [128][130][131].

Core Viewpoint - In September, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market experienced a dual weakness in supply and demand, with refinery inventory decreasing while port inventory increased, indicating a lack of strong expectations for market improvement in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Analysis - As of September 30, the LPG refinery inventory rate was 27.91%, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The estimated domestic LPG commodity volume for September was 1.6221 million tons, a decrease of 5.65% month-on-month, with an average daily commodity volume of 54,070 tons, down 0.14% [2]. - The average port inventory rate for domestic main ports was 52.36%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic PDH (propane dehydrogenation) plant operating rates showed a decline followed by a slight recovery, with a weekly operating rate of 72.03% as of September 25, down 0.55 percentage points from the end of the previous month [3]. - Despite a traditional peak season for propane consumption, terminal demand growth was below expectations due to ongoing policy impacts [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The LPG market in September showed a divergence in price trends, with residential gas prices initially rising but later declining due to increased port resources and weak terminal demand [6]. - The ether C4 market remained weak, influenced by poor downstream demand and rising upstream inventory pressures, leading to accelerated price declines [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The LPG market is expected to exhibit weak and fluctuating trends in October, with passive consumption of refinery and port inventories [7]. - Residential gas prices are anticipated to be weak due to abundant domestic supply and declining import costs, despite a potential increase in burning demand as temperatures drop [7].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Short - term weak operation. Although PDH profit has improved significantly due to the weakening of propane, the current tense Sino - US trade relationship and strong market wait - and - see sentiment make it difficult to fully realize demand support. However, considering that the PG main contract has reached a new low and civil demand is gradually improving, the downward space is expected to be limited [3]. - **Propylene**: Demand is weakening, and it will run weakly in the short term. Next week, although the supply may shrink due to the expected maintenance of PDH devices, the demand will weaken as some PO and acrylic acid devices plan to stop for maintenance, so the upward momentum of prices is limited [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs LPG Part Price & Spread - **Domestic Spot and Basis**: There are significant differences in the price changes of civil gas in different regions. The prices of Shandong, East China, and South China have changed by - 100, 21, and - 50 yuan/ton respectively on a weekly basis. For other LPG and basis, the prices of Shandong ether - after, East China import, and South China import have also changed, and the basis of civil gas in different regions has also shown different trends [7]. - **Regional Quotations, Premiums, and Freight**: The freight from the US to the Far East has decreased, the FEI premium has weakened, and there is an arbitrage space [18]. - **Propane Price**: It has weakened significantly [28]. Supply - **International Shipment**: The US, Canada, Qatar, and other countries' LPG shipment volumes have different degrees of changes. For example, the US - China propane shipment volume (weekly) MA4 has decreased by 1 compared with the previous period [38]. - **Domestic Supply**: The total LPG commodity volume is 54.3 tons (+0.6%), of which the civil gas commodity volume is 21.8 tons (+1.0%), and the ether - after C4 commodity volume remains at a high level. The propane commodity volume has decreased, and the imported vessel arrivals have decreased by 6.7 tons [60][69]. Demand & Inventory - **Chemical Demand**: The operating rates of PDH and MTBE have decreased slightly [73]. - **Domestic Refinery Inventory**: The ether - after inventory is at a high level, and the civil gas is accumulating inventory. The inventory of LPG refineries in different regions has different trends, such as the inventory of civil gas refineries in Shandong has increased by 1.29% on a weekly basis [82]. - **Terminal Imported Cargo Inventory**: The inventory in East China and Shandong has decreased from a high level, while the inventory in South China has increased slightly [92]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - **Upstream Price**: The prices of Brent, WTI, and other upstream products have decreased to varying degrees on a weekly basis. For example, Brent has decreased by 4.97 US dollars/bbl, with a weekly average change of - 4.73% [103]. - **Propylene Price**: The international/US - dollar price has slightly corrected from a high level, and the domestic/Shandong market is relatively strong, while the East China price has declined, and the regional spread has widened [106][114]. - **Downstream Price/Profit**: The prices and profits of downstream products such as PP particles, PP powder, and PO have changed. For example, the price of PP particles has decreased by 63 yuan/ton on a weekly basis, and the profit has decreased by 53 yuan/ton [105]. Balance Sheet - **Supply**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene supply is expected to be 550 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 80.5%, an increase of 7.64% compared with the previous month. The supply from different sources such as main refineries, local refineries, and PDH devices has different degrees of changes [127]. - **Demand**: In October 2025, the total domestic propylene demand is expected to be 544 tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%, an increase of 5.95% compared with the previous month. The demand from downstream products such as polypropylene particles, polypropylene powder, and epoxy propane has different degrees of changes [128].

Group 1: Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: September 28, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] - Contact: Zhao Shucen [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Views LPG Part - Short - term support is not weak. Domestic supply has a slight increase, and import to - ship volume is expected to rise next week. Demand in the civil and chemical sectors is expected to strengthen [3]. - This week, civil gas prices showed different trends in different regions, and the FEI price of imported gas decreased slightly. Next week, import costs may increase, and the fundamentals may provide some support [4]. Propylene Part - Supply devices are gradually returning, and the market is expected to run weakly in the short - term, but there is still support at the bottom [5]. Group 4: Summary by Sections LPG Part - Price & Spread - This week, civil gas prices in East China declined slightly, those in Shandong rose slightly, and those in South China were relatively firm. Imported gas prices showed a narrow - range decline. The week - on - week changes in different regions varied [3][4][8]. - The US - Far East freight first remained stable and then declined, the FEI discount weakened, and the arbitrage space narrowed [20]. LPG Part - Supply - The total domestic LPG commodity volume was 53.9 tons, a 0.1% increase week - on - week. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.1 tons, a 4.8% increase, while the ether - after carbon four commodity volume was 18.0 tons, a 1.6% decrease [3][64]. - The international ship - arrival volume decreased by 4.1 tons this week, mainly in East China, but it is expected to increase next week [3]. LPG Part - Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, the civil demand is strengthening, and the PDH and MTBE device operating rates have increased [3]. - Refinery inventories in East China and South China showed different trends, and port inventories in South China decreased while those in East China and Shandong increased [80][95]. Propylene Part - Price & Spread - Upstream prices such as Brent and WTI increased slightly, and propylene prices in different regions and international markets showed a downward trend [106]. - The profits of different production methods in the mid - upstream and downstream showed different changes [106][108]. Propylene Part - Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain showed different trends this week, with some increasing and some decreasing [127]. - From January to September 2025, the supply and demand of domestic propylene showed different changes in different months, and the balance volume also fluctuated [130][131].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - **Spot Prices**: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - **External Prices**: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - **Inventory**: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - **Arbitrage and Freight**: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]

Report Title - "LPG Weekly Report: Peak Season Stockpiling Arrives, LPG Strengthens Relatively" [1] Report Date - September 14, 2025 [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - LPG has shown strong recent performance, with the international market entering the peak - season stockpiling phase, and its price is relatively firm compared to crude oil [5]. - OPEC+ is further increasing crude oil production. Although geopolitical disturbances between the US and Venezuela, the US and Iran, and the US and Russia may offset the increase to some extent, it does not change the fact that LPG supply remains abundant [5]. - In the demand side, the peak season of the blending market is coming to an end, and the operating rate is difficult to maintain at a high level, so the chemical demand may weaken. However, the profit of PDH has been significantly repaired, which may support the subsequent operating rate [5]. - Overall, LPG supply is very abundant. The CP price is relatively strong in the short - term due to peak - season stockpiling, but will follow the oil price in the long - term. With high supply and the expectation that demand is unlikely to strengthen beyond expectations, the upside potential of LPG is limited, and a bearish view is maintained in the long - term [5]. Key Strategy Recommendation - Futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices [6] Summary by Directory PART 01: LPG Market Review - **Market Trend**: The domestic LPG market showed a volatile trend. In the civil gas market, the supply of domestic gas increased slightly, with limited negative impact on the market. In Shandong, prices declined due to the concentrated arrival of imported gas. The combustion demand was still weak, and downstream customers were cautious about high prices while digesting inventory, leading to price drops in some enterprises in Central China. In other regions, the supply - demand situation was good, and prices rose slightly. In the olefin C4 market, despite the increase in international crude oil prices, the poor terminal oil product demand led to a decline in component raw material prices. Downstream device profits continued to be in the red, and with decreased chemical demand and increased supply, the relaxed supply - demand situation pressured the market [5]. - **CP Price**: The expected average price of propane CP is $545 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.64%. The expected average price of butane CP is $525 per ton, up $14 per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 2.74% [5]. PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Domestic**: Data on the operating rate of major refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units, comprehensive refining profit of major refineries, and domestic LPG production volume are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [11]. - **Supply - Import**: Data on LPG arrival volume in China, import trade profit margin in South China, monthly total import volume in China, import volume from different countries, and shipping freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region and the US Gulf Coast to the Far East are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [14][15][17][19] - **Inventory**: Data on LPG port inventory in China, refinery storage capacity ratio in China, port storage capacity ratio in China, factory - level inventory in China, and sales - to - production ratios in South China, East China, and Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [22][24] - **Demand - PDH**: Data on the operating rate of PDH plants in China, production profit margin of PDH in China, production profit margin of MTBE's isomerization etherification in Shandong, capacity utilization rate of MTBE export factories in China, capacity utilization rate of alkylated oil in China, and production profit margin of alkylated oil in Shandong are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [27][29][31] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - **Import Cost**: Data on CP contract prices of propane and butane, CP crude oil price trends, and spot prices of propane (frozen cargo) in South China are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [36] - **Spot**: Data on ex - factory prices of civil LPG from Guangzhou Petrochemical, Shanghai Gaoqiao, and Jinan Refinery are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [39][40] PART 04: LPG Other Data - **LPG Spread**: Data on the basis of the LPG main contract and the spread between the first - and second - month contracts are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [45] - **Registered Warehouse Receipts**: Data on the registered warehouse receipts of major LPG delivery warehouses are presented, but specific current - period data analysis is not provided [47]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spot market is weak, with civil gas and ether - post carbon slightly declining. The lowest delivery location remains in East China. The domestic market rises, and the basis narrows. The supply increases, and the demand is still weak. The overall market is expected to fluctuate as the combustion off - season is approaching its end, but demand lacks substantial improvement [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Spot Market - Civil gas and ether - post carbon prices decline slightly. East China's low - end price is 4507 (+1), Shandong's is 4520 (-10), and South China's changes little at 4590 (-10). Ether - post carbon 4810 (-20). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. Futures Market - The PG main contract fluctuates. The cheapest delivery product is East China civil gas at 4501. The basis strengthens to 125 (+55), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 69 (-18). The warehouse receipt registration volume is 13008 lots (-199) [1]. Supply and Demand - Xintai Petrochemical resumes civil gas supply, increasing by 75 tons per day. Hebei Haiwei's PDH device restarts, and its load is rising. Ningbo Jinfa will stop work next week, while Hebei Haiwei and Wanhua Yantai will resume work [1]. International Market - FEI and CP rise slightly to 554 and 550 dollars per ton respectively. The arrival cost increases. The outer - market prices are differentiated, and the internal - external price difference decreases [1]. Industry Indicators - PDH profit declines, the profit of producing PP is poor, and the profit of producing propylene is good. Port inventory changes little, refinery commodity volume drops by 3.01%, and PDH operating rate is 73.10% (+0.08pct) [1].

Core Viewpoint - Domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices have declined again in August, with the average price for residential gas at 4359 yuan/ton and ether after carbon four at 4533 yuan/ton, indicating a further drop compared to the previous month [1][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, domestic LPG average commodity volume was 53,845 tons/day, a slight increase of 29 tons/day, while average production was 81,048 tons/day, showing a minor increase [4] - The import volume of LPG at main ports was 719,000 tons, with a decrease in both port arrivals and storage [4] - Demand for residential gas is currently low due to seasonal factors and high temperatures, leading to weak consumption in this sector [4] - Chemical demand is also not optimistic, with propane deep processing maintaining stable levels, while butane deep processing is driven by MTBE units [4][5] Market Dynamics - The market sentiment has been negatively impacted by lower CP prices and continuous declines in international crude oil prices [3] - Despite some refineries attempting to stabilize prices due to low supply, the overall market remains under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand [3][6] - The LPG inventory at refineries has increased to 32.18%, and port inventory has risen to 55.50%, indicating significant accumulation [5][6] Future Outlook - The high inventory situation is expected to persist in the short term, with limited improvement anticipated during the "Golden September" season [6] - The average price forecast for August is 4380 yuan/ton for residential gas, with a range of 4330-4450 yuan/ton, and 4530 yuan/ton for ether after carbon four, with a range of 4450-4560 yuan/ton [6] - The LPG market may continue to face downward pressure due to supply-demand adjustments and cost changes [7]