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能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20250928
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-09-28 09:29
国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期:2025年9月28日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号:Z0020238 赵书岑(联系人) 期货从业资格号:F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点:短期支撑不弱 供应 国产方面,液化气总商品量53.9万吨,较上周环比增加0.1%;其中,民用气商品量21.1万吨(+4.8%),醚后商品量18.0万吨(-1.6%);当前, 国内民用气商品量处于偏低水平,而醚后碳四商品量维持高位水平。进口方面,国际原油趋势上行,但远东市场化工需求支撑环比偏弱,FEI 价格窄幅下调,美国-远东套利窗口有所缩小。本周,隆众口径中国国际船到港量较上周环比减少4.1万吨,以华东为主,受台风影响,20日以 后所有计划均延迟至下周,目前锚地多船待 ...
LPG早报-20250915
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-15 01:17
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With oil prices falling, the PG spot market is weak, and both civil gas and ether - post carbon four prices have declined. The overall market is expected to remain weak due to sufficient supply from incoming resources and a decline in chemical demand, especially with the drop in PDH, alkylation, and MTBE operating rates [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Price Changes - **Spot Prices**: Civil gas prices in East China are at a low of 4507 (+0), in Shandong 4500 (+0), and in South China 4550 (-40). Ether - post carbon four is at 4760 (-40). The lowest delivery location is Shandong [1] - **Futures Prices**: The PG main contract fluctuates strongly. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakens to 51 (-74), the 10 - 11 month spread is 49 (-20), and the 11 - 12 month spread is 62 (+3) [1] - **External Prices**: FEI and CP drop slightly by 2 dollars to 550 and 546 dollars/ton respectively. FEI month - spread is +1, MB month - spread is unchanged, and CP month - spread is -2.5. The internal - external price difference decreases slightly [1] Market Conditions - **Inventory**: Port and factory inventories increase as inbound shipments decrease, outbound shipments increase slightly, but demand narrows [1] - **Demand**: Chemical demand drops. PDH operating rate is 70.49% (-2.61), with some plants resuming, others under maintenance or reducing loads. Alkylation and MTBE operating rates also decline [1] - **Arbitrage and Freight**: The US - Asia arbitrage window closes. Freight rates continue to rise, with the US Gulf - Japan at 155 (+11) and the Middle East - Far East at 82 (+7) [1]
LPG周报:旺季备货已至,LPG相对走强-20250914
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-09-14 14:41
旺季备货已至,LPG相对走强 LPG周报 2025年9月14日 姓名:肖海明 从业资格号:F3075626 交易咨询从业证书号:Z0018001 联系电话: 0531-81678601 公司地址:济南市市中区经七路86号证券大厦15、16层 客服电话:400-618-6767 投资咨询资格号:证监许可[2012]112 期货交易咨询: PART 01 LPG行情回顾 请务必阅读正文之后的声明部分 主要观点 行情回顾 国内液化气市场趋势震荡。民用气市场,国产气供应水平提升,不过幅度有限对市场利空影响并不明 显,山东区域受进口气集中到港影响 价格走跌;燃烧需求依旧表现一般,下游消化库存对高价观望,华中地区 部分企业出货不佳价格走跌;其他区域供需面表现良好,价格小 幅走高。烯烃碳四市场,虽然国际原油价格上 涨,但终端油品需求不佳导致组分原料价格下跌,下游装置利润持续亏损,且化工需求下降 而供应增加,供需 面放宽打压市场走势。丙烷CP预期均价为545美元/吨,较上期涨14美元/吨,环比上涨2.64%;丁烷CP预期均价为525 美 元/吨,较上期涨14美元/吨,环比上涨2.74%; 逻辑与观点 LPG近期走势较强,国际 ...
LPG早报-20250911
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-09-11 01:08
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View The spot market is weak, with civil gas and ether - post carbon slightly declining. The lowest delivery location remains in East China. The domestic market rises, and the basis narrows. The supply increases, and the demand is still weak. The overall market is expected to fluctuate as the combustion off - season is approaching its end, but demand lacks substantial improvement [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Information Spot Market - Civil gas and ether - post carbon prices decline slightly. East China's low - end price is 4507 (+1), Shandong's is 4520 (-10), and South China's changes little at 4590 (-10). Ether - post carbon 4810 (-20). The lowest delivery location is East China [1]. Futures Market - The PG main contract fluctuates. The cheapest delivery product is East China civil gas at 4501. The basis strengthens to 125 (+55), and the 10 - 11 month spread is 69 (-18). The warehouse receipt registration volume is 13008 lots (-199) [1]. Supply and Demand - Xintai Petrochemical resumes civil gas supply, increasing by 75 tons per day. Hebei Haiwei's PDH device restarts, and its load is rising. Ningbo Jinfa will stop work next week, while Hebei Haiwei and Wanhua Yantai will resume work [1]. International Market - FEI and CP rise slightly to 554 and 550 dollars per ton respectively. The arrival cost increases. The outer - market prices are differentiated, and the internal - external price difference decreases [1]. Industry Indicators - PDH profit declines, the profit of producing PP is poor, and the profit of producing propylene is good. Port inventory changes little, refinery commodity volume drops by 3.01%, and PDH operating rate is 73.10% (+0.08pct) [1].
需求疲软、高库存难解 预计LPG市场下跌态势仍将延续
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-08-18 06:53
Core Viewpoint - Domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices have declined again in August, with the average price for residential gas at 4359 yuan/ton and ether after carbon four at 4533 yuan/ton, indicating a further drop compared to the previous month [1][3] Supply and Demand Analysis - On the supply side, domestic LPG average commodity volume was 53,845 tons/day, a slight increase of 29 tons/day, while average production was 81,048 tons/day, showing a minor increase [4] - The import volume of LPG at main ports was 719,000 tons, with a decrease in both port arrivals and storage [4] - Demand for residential gas is currently low due to seasonal factors and high temperatures, leading to weak consumption in this sector [4] - Chemical demand is also not optimistic, with propane deep processing maintaining stable levels, while butane deep processing is driven by MTBE units [4][5] Market Dynamics - The market sentiment has been negatively impacted by lower CP prices and continuous declines in international crude oil prices [3] - Despite some refineries attempting to stabilize prices due to low supply, the overall market remains under pressure from high inventory levels and weak demand [3][6] - The LPG inventory at refineries has increased to 32.18%, and port inventory has risen to 55.50%, indicating significant accumulation [5][6] Future Outlook - The high inventory situation is expected to persist in the short term, with limited improvement anticipated during the "Golden September" season [6] - The average price forecast for August is 4380 yuan/ton for residential gas, with a range of 4330-4450 yuan/ton, and 4530 yuan/ton for ether after carbon four, with a range of 4450-4560 yuan/ton [6] - The LPG market may continue to face downward pressure due to supply-demand adjustments and cost changes [7]
能源化工:C3产业链周度报告-20250803
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-08-03 09:20
Report Information - Report Title: C3 Industry Chain Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: August 3, 2025 [1] - Analyst: Chen Xinchao [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - **LPG**: Import costs are decreasing, and prices are weakly oscillating. Domestic civil gas supply and demand are both weak, and the overall price is fluctuating weakly. Ether C4 prices are oscillating, and the overall chemical industry's start - up is expected to have limited short - term boost. [3] - **Propylene**: The supply - demand pattern is loose, and prices are under pressure and weak. Although the supply - demand gap may narrow further, it is difficult to drive price increases. The supply - demand pressure may ease from late August to September, and prices may turn around. [4] Summary by Section LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG domestic spot prices in various regions have decreased. For example, from July 25 to August 1, Shandong civil gas decreased by 100 yuan/ton, and South China imported gas decreased by 120 yuan/ton. [8][15] - CP prices were released lower, and FEI discounts narrowed and then decreased again. [16] Supply - US propane shipments to Japan and South Korea increased significantly, while shipments to China decreased significantly. [26] - Middle East LPG shipments decreased significantly, and shipments to China, India, and Southeast Asia all decreased. [34][40] - China's LPG total commodity volume was 52.7 million tons (+0.3%), with civil gas at 21.0 million tons (-0.0%). Propane imports increased by 22.5 million tons. [50][59] Demand & Inventory - Chemical demand: PDH decreased slightly, and MTBE's operating rate decreased for the first time after 8 consecutive weeks of increase. [65] - LPG refinery inventories: Some regions decreased, such as East China's civil gas refinery inventory decreased from 18.43 million tons to 18.08 million tons. [68] - LPG terminal import inventories: East China and Fujian reduced inventories, while other regions' terminals increased inventories. [78] Propylene Part Price & Spread - Upstream prices: Brent rose by 1.13 dollars/bbl, and WTI rose by 2.19 dollars/bbl week - on - week. [89] - Propylene prices: Shandong, East China, and South China decreased by 35, 125, and 100 yuan/ton respectively week - on - week. [89] - Downstream prices/profits: Some products' prices and profits changed, such as PP powder profit in East China increased by 105 yuan/ton. [91] Balance Sheet - **National Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene production was 529 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.5%. [105] - **National Balance Sheet - Demand**: In August 2025, the total domestic propylene demand was 526 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 79.0%. [108] - **Shandong Balance Sheet - Supply**: In August 2025, Shandong's total propylene production was 90 million tons, with a weighted operating rate of 64.0%. [112]
中美第三轮谈判在即,LPG相对原油走弱
Zhong Tai Qi Huo· 2025-07-27 09:44
1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, LPG futures fluctuated downward, showing a weaker trend compared to crude oil. With the supply path of OPEC+ basically determined, the divergence in global supply will decrease in the future. [6] - On the demand side, the peak season for the blending market is approaching, but the blending market has been operating at a high capacity utilization rate. If expectations are not met, a negative feedback loop may quickly form. Additionally, summer is a traditional off - season for civilian demand, with little possibility of unexpected changes. [6] - PDH profits have significantly recovered, which may support the subsequent operating rate. Overall, LPG supply is abundant, and CP prices are likely to fluctuate following crude oil. In the long - and medium - term, civilian demand is entering an off - season, and chemical profit margins are difficult to expand further. Therefore, LPG futures prices are more likely to fall than to rise. Next week, attention should be paid to the progress of the third round of China - US negotiations. [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs PART 01: LPG Market Review - The domestic LPG market showed a divergent trend this period. Civil gas prices rose slightly, while the price of ether - after carbon four declined. For civil gas, refinery supply was generally under no pressure, and the number of incoming vessels at import terminals decreased. Also, civil gas prices were generally low, showing a slight upward trend during the week. However, prices in the East China region declined due to the large volume and low price of local industrial gas. [5] - The expected average price of propane CP was 532 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 26 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.66%. The expected average price of butane CP was 507 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 21 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 3.98%. The average price of propane CFR in South China was 543 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 23 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 4.06%. The average price of butane CFR in South China was 520 US dollars per ton, a decrease of 16 US dollars per ton from the previous period, a month - on - month decline of 2.99%. [5] - Recommended futures strategy: Try shorting at high prices. [7] PART 02: LPG Fundamental Analysis - **Supply - Import**: The report presents historical data on LPG import volume, including weekly arrival volume in China, monthly import volume from different countries (such as the United States, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates), and import trade profit margins in the South China region. [13][16] - **LPG Freight**: It shows historical freight rates from the Arabian Gulf region to the Far East and from the US Gulf Coast to the Far East. [19] - **LPG Inventory**: The report includes data on port inventory in China, refinery capacity utilization ratios in China, and factory - level inventory in China, as well as the production - sales ratios in regions such as South China, Shandong, and East China. [21][25] - **Industrial Indicators**: It presents data on the operating rates and production profit margins of PDH plants, MTBE plants, and alkylation oil plants in China. [30][32][34] PART 03: LPG - Related Price Data - **Import Cost**: It shows the CP far - month and current - month prices, including the predicted prices of propane and butane, CP contract prices, and the price trends of CP crude oil. [39] - **Domestic Prices**: It includes the ex - factory prices of civil LPG in different refineries (such as Guangzhou Petrochemical, Jinan Refinery, and Shanghai Gaoqiao), the ex - factory price of ether - after carbon four, the spot benchmark price of MTBE in Shandong, the market price of alkylated gasoline in Shandong, and the spot price of maleic anhydride. [41][45][46][47][49] PART 04: Other LPG Data - It shows the historical data of the basis of the LPG main contract, the price difference between the first - and second - month contracts, and the registered warehouse receipts of major delivery warehouses. [53][55]
国泰君安期货能源化工C3产业链周度报告-20250720
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-07-20 12:32
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report LPG Part - This week, the domestic civil LPG market faced weak supply and demand. Supply slightly contracted, but seasonal demand was weak, and international LPG prices declined. Overall, prices fluctuated weakly within a narrow range, and the domestic basis strengthened due to the decline in PG futures. The price of etherified C4 oscillated downward and stabilized at the end of the week. Next week, civil demand is expected to remain seasonally weak, while the overall chemical production start - up is likely to receive some short - term support [3][4]. Propylene Part - This week, the domestic propylene market price first declined and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, multiple restarted PDH units led to a significant increase in propylene supply, causing prices to decline. Later in the week, the restart of downstream parking units increased propylene demand, and prices stabilized [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory LPG Part Price & Spread - LPG futures and paper prices showed certain fluctuations. For domestic spot and basis, civil gas prices in different regions had varying degrees of change, and the basis also changed. Regional quotes, premiums, and freight rates also had corresponding adjustments. Propane prices decreased compared to the previous period [8][10][18]. Supply - In domestic production, the total LPG commodity volume was 52.5 million tons, a slight reduction. The civil gas commodity volume was 21.2 million tons (-5.1%), and the etherified C4 commodity volume was 17.1 million tons (+0.7%). In terms of imports, the international vessel arrivals this week were 52.5 million tons (-16.4%). The production and imports of propane in China both decreased [4][38][45]. Demand & Inventory - In terms of demand, civil combustion demand remained seasonally weak due to high temperatures. The PDH operating rate increased significantly this week, and it is expected to rise further next week. The MTBE operating rate continued to increase to 67.6%, up 0.8% from the previous week. In terms of inventory, domestic refinery inventories of LPG and civil gas slightly increased, and LPG terminal import inventories in East China, South China, and Shandong all increased [4][48][52]. Propylene Part Price & Spread - In the propylene industry chain, upstream prices such as NAP, methanol, and propane showed different degrees of decline. Propylene prices in different regions also changed, with prices in Shandong, East China, and South China falling by 85, 15, and 100 yuan/ton respectively compared to the previous week. Downstream product prices and profits also had corresponding fluctuations [77][79][90]. Balance Sheet - The operating rates of different production methods in the propylene industry chain, such as domestic majors, Shandong local refineries, and PDH, changed. The national and Shandong propylene balance sheets showed the supply and demand situation in different months, including production, demand, and balance quantities [98][100][109]. Supply - This week, the domestic propylene market supply increased due to the gradual return of previously shut - down PDH units. The weekly propylene output was 1.166 million tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from the previous period, and the industry's overall capacity utilization rate increased by 1.9% to 73.1% [5]. Demand - This week, the overall operating rate of propylene downstream industries increased. The operating rates of downstream products such as butanol, acrylic acid, and PO all increased, mainly due to the gradual return of multiple shut - down units [5]. Downstream Inventory No relevant content provided.
下半年液化气市场价格或先扬后抑
Xin Hua Cai Jing· 2025-07-03 04:35
Group 1 - The domestic liquefied gas market in China showed a downward trend in the first half of 2025, with an average price of 4833 yuan/ton for civil gas, down 84 yuan/ton or 1.71% year-on-year [2] - The average price for ether C4 was 4947 yuan/ton, a decrease of 317 yuan/ton or 6.02% year-on-year [2] - The overall energy prices were weak due to macro risks and supply-demand dynamics, with international crude oil prices fluctuating significantly [2][3] Group 2 - The supply of liquefied gas in the domestic market exceeded demand in the first half of 2025, with total supply estimated at 38.07 million tons and total demand at 37.56 million tons [3] - Inventory levels showed a trend of decreasing initially and then increasing, influenced by rising imports and low domestic demand [3] - The forecast for the second half of 2025 indicates a potential increase in liquefied gas prices initially, followed by a decline due to supply exceeding demand [4][6] Group 3 - The expected total supply for the second half of 2025 is 38.88 million tons, while total demand is projected at 37.60 million tons [4] - Domestic production is anticipated to increase due to reduced refinery maintenance and the gradual resumption of previously halted facilities [4] - The demand for liquefied gas is expected to rise slightly as the market transitions from off-peak to peak season, but overall demand remains in a downward trend [5] Group 4 - The average price forecast for civil gas in the second half of 2025 is 4773 yuan/ton, with a high of 4910 yuan/ton in October and a low of 4600 yuan/ton in July [7] - The average price for ether C4 is projected to be 4901 yuan/ton, with a peak of 5000 yuan/ton in September and a low of 4780 yuan/ton in December [7] - The market for ether C4 is expected to experience price fluctuations, initially rising due to increased demand and then declining in the fourth quarter [7]
LPG早报-20250630
Yong An Qi Huo· 2025-06-30 04:06
Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report - The LPG market shows complex trends, with civil gas prices rising first and then falling. The PG futures price fluctuates widely, the basis strengthens, and the spread between months changes little. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, and the profit of PDH production improves slightly. It is expected that the operating rates of PDH and alkylation will rise slightly next week, the combustion demand remains weak, and the subsequent price will generally stabilize [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Data - From June 22 - 27, 2025, prices of various LPG - related products such as South China LPG, East China LPG, Shandong LPG, etc., show different trends. For example, South China LPG price changes from 4695 on June 22 to 4710 on June 27, with a daily change of - 45 on the 27th. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong civil gas at 4590. The 08 - 09 spread of PG is 94, and the US - to - Far - East arbitrage window is closed [1]. Weekly View - Civil gas prices rise first and then fall. The market is bullish at the beginning of the week due to geopolitical tensions, but then is under pressure as overall supply is high, high prices are resisted by downstream, and the easing of the Middle East situation leads to a sharp drop in oil prices. The basis of PG strengthens to 345. The external market price weakens significantly, and the oil - gas ratio first suppresses and then rises. The import price drops significantly, the profit of PDH spot production improves, and the profit calculated by paper goods rises. The profit of alkylation oil increases significantly, the profit of MTBE gas - fraction etherification remains basically flat, and the profit of isomerization etherification rises. In terms of fundamentals, port inventories increase due to more arrivals, factory inventories increase slightly with regional differentiation (East China destocks, South China and Shandong build up inventories), and external sales increase. The operating rate of PDH rises to 70.54% (+4.33 pct), and the operating rate of alkylation is 46.02% (-1.84 pct), with MTBE production basically flat. The number of registered warrants is 8358 (+0) [1].