液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-27 盘面震荡偏强，局部现货上涨 市场分析 1、\t8月26日地区价格：山东市场，4500-4630；东北市场，3850-4130；华北市场，4100-4600；华东市场，4350-4480； 沿江市场，4610-4820；西北市场，4450-4500；华南市场，4550-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷586美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷561美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4593元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4397元/吨，涨41元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷578美元/吨，涨5美元/吨，丁烷553美元/吨，涨7美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4530元/吨，涨41元/吨，丁烷4334元/吨，涨57元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 宏观政策、关税政策、港口装船延迟、炼厂装置检修超预期等。 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 在经历了持续的弱势行情后，LPG市场近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善、油价反弹 ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/08/26 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 | 丙烷CIF日 | MB丙烷现 | CP预测合 | | 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基化油 | 纸面进口 | 主力基差 | | | | 气 | | 南 | 本 | 货 | 同价 | | | 利润 | | | 2025/08/1 9 | 4490 | 4390 | 4480 | 563 | 521 | 67 | 515 | 4890 | 7800 | -162 | 638 | | 2025/08/2 0 | 4520 | 4390 | 4480 | 565 | 536 | 69 | 519 | 4890 | 7780 | -144 | 136 | | 2025/08/2 1 | 4520 | 4398 | 4500 | 573 | 5 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-26 市场氛围尚可，现货价格普涨 市场分析 1、\t8月25日地区价格：山东市场，4500-4630；东北市场，3850-4130；华北市场，4100-4550；华东市场，4350-4480； 沿江市场，4610-4790；西北市场，4450-4500；华南市场，4528-4550。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷581美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4552元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4356元/吨，跌25元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷573美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，丁烷546美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4489元/吨，跌26元/吨，丁烷4277元/吨，跌41元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 经历了较长时间的弱势行情，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），LPG市场情绪有所改 善，叠加内盘主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。现货方面，山东、华南、华东等地价格普遍上涨，市 场氛围尚可，下游刚需 ...

市场分析 1、\t8月21日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4520；东北市场，3950-4130；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4330-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4760；西北市场，4250-4350；华南市场，4478-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷579美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷556美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4544元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4363元/吨，跌22元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷571美元/吨，涨1美元/吨，丁烷548美元/吨，跌2美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4481元/吨，涨2元/吨，丁烷4301元/吨，跌21元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-22 盘面筑底反弹，但驱动仍有限 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 在PG盘面处于低位弱势运行的背景下，近期出现一些边际利多因素（国际运费上涨、化工需求改善），市场情绪有 所改善，叠加主力合约切换到2510，盘面有筑底反弹迹象。 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market shows a pattern of increasing supply and weakening demand, with the spot price center shifting downward. The PG futures market rebounds due to the improvement in the international spot market and the low valuation of the futures. It is expected to continue the weak and volatile consolidation trend [1]. 3) Summary by Related Catalogs Market Data - **Spot Prices**: From August 15 to August 21, 2025, the prices of South China LPG remained at 4520, East China LPG increased from 4410 to 4398, and Shandong LPG rose from 4420 to 4500. The CFR South price of propane increased from 563 to 573, and the CIF Japan price of propane rose from 527 to 540 [1]. - **Daily Changes**: On August 21, compared with the previous day, the prices of South China LPG remained unchanged, East China LPG increased by 8, Shandong LPG increased by 20, the CFR South price of propane increased by 8, and the CIF Japan price of propane increased by 4 [1]. - **Futures Market**: The PG futures market shows a small rebound. The basis strengthened to 105 (-31), and the 09 - 10 spread was -493 (-29). The cheapest deliverable was East China civil gas at 4398 on Thursday [1]. Weekly View - **Market Conditions**: The international market is volatile, with freight rates generally in a high - level volatile state. The waiting time at the Panama Canal for VLGCs has decreased. The FEI and CP have increased, and the production profit of PP made from FEI and CP has weakened [1]. - **Fundamentals**: The unloading volume has decreased, chemical demand has slightly increased, and port inventories have decreased by 2.06%. Refinery commodity volume has decreased by 1.68%. Factory inventories have increased by 0.07%. The PDH operating rate is 76.33% (+2.49pct), and the combustion demand is still weak but gradually coming to an end [1].

1、\t8月19日地区价格：山东市场，4420-4500；东北市场，3900-4110；华北市场，4280-4620；华东市场，4280-4480； 沿江市场，4480-4700；西北市场，4200-4300；华南市场，4428-4580。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年9月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷568美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷545美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4462元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4281元/吨，跌30元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷560美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，丁烷537美元/吨，跌4美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4399元/吨，跌29元/吨，丁烷4219元/吨，跌29元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-20 产销温和，下游刚需为主 市场分析 LPG整体供需格局维持宽松，市场弱势运行，近期出现一些边际利好但尚不足以逆转氛围，昨日外盘价格再度出 现下跌。现货方面，昨日山东、西北及华南区域价格上涨，其余区域维稳，整体市场产销温和，下游刚需为主。 供应方面，海外供应整体维持充裕 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG remains loose, and the market is operating weakly. However, the recent marginal improvement in chemical - end demand and the increase in freight rates are providing some downside support. The spot price of domestic mainstream LPG is stable, with downstream purchasing on demand and sellers having no inventory concerns. Overseas supply is generally abundant, and the domestic commercial volume has slightly decreased but remains abundant. The combustion - end demand is weak due to high summer temperatures, while the chemical - end demand has marginally improved, with the PDH operating rate rising to around 78%, at a high level this year but with limited further upward momentum. In terms of trading strategies, the unilateral strategy is to expect oscillations and focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels, while there are no specific strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [1][2]. 3. Directory Summaries Market Analysis - On August 18, the domestic regional prices were as follows: Shandong market 4370 - 4460 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3900 - 4110 yuan/ton; North China market 4280 - 4620 yuan/ton; East China market 4350 - 4480 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4530 - 4700 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4180 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market 4378 - 4580 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen LPG in East China were propane at 572 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 549 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4491 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for propane and 4311 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB. In South China, propane was at 564 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), butane at 541 dollars/ton (up 2 dollars/ton), equivalent to 4428 yuan/ton (up 14 yuan/ton) for propane and 4248 yuan/ton (up 15 yuan/ton) for butane in RMB [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillations, focus on short - term rebound opportunities at low PG levels. - Inter - period: None. - Inter - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not mention an industry investment rating. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The LPG outer market and domestic futures have shown a weak oscillation recently, with a slight rebound yesterday. Although the market position is low and the short - term downward space may be limited, the upward momentum is still insufficient. The global LPG supply - demand pattern remains loose, and domestic supply is abundant. The combustion - end demand is in the off - season, while the chemical terminal demand shows marginal improvement. The PDH operating rate has reached about 78%, and the new raw material procurement demand will support the domestic and outer - market propane markets [1]. - The unilateral strategy is oscillating weakly, and attention should be paid to the bottom - building signal of the market. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Analysis - On August 14, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4350 - 4450 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3990 - 4260 yuan/ton; North China market, 4360 - 4620 yuan/ton; East China market, 4350 - 4450 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4400 - 4540 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4300 yuan/ton; South China market, 4298 - 4500 yuan/ton [1]. - In the first half of September 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 570 US dollars/ton, up 9 US dollars/ton, and butane was 547 US dollars/ton, up 11 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4476 yuan/ton, up 69 yuan/ton, and butane was 4296 yuan/ton, up 86 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 562 US dollars/ton, up 6 US dollars/ton, and butane was 539 US dollars/ton, up 8 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4414 yuan/ton, up 47 yuan/ton, and butane was 4233 yuan/ton, up 62 yuan/ton [1]. - The domestic civil LPG price remained stable overall yesterday, with a slight decline in Shandong. The global LPG supply - demand pattern is loose, and domestic supply is abundant due to high arrival volume. The combustion - end demand is in the off - season, while the chemical terminal demand shows marginal improvement [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Oscillating weakly, pay attention to the bottom - building signal of the market - Inter - period: None - Inter - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2]

液化石油气日报 | 2025-08-14 2、\t2025年9月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷561美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷536美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4407元/吨，跌27元/吨，丁烷4210元/吨，跌28元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年9月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷556美元/吨，跌3美元/吨，丁烷531美元/吨，跌8美元/吨，折合 人民币价格丙烷4367元/吨，跌28元/吨，丁烷4171元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 原油价格近日走势偏弱，LPG外盘与国内期货同样呈现弱势震荡态势，虽然盘面位置已经较低，但市场上行驱动 不足。现货方面，昨日国内民用气价格整体持稳，山东地区小幅下跌，当地供应偏宽松，高价仍有下调，但整体 出货好转，下游存在逢低补货意愿。就基本面来看，目前全球LPG供需格局延续宽松状态，市场驱动有限。供应 方面，海外供应维持充裕，进口套利窗口打开的背景下国内到港量或持续偏高，整体供应较为充裕。需求方面， 淡季燃烧端需求延续疲软，深加工方面下游装置开工率近期边际改善，但持续增长的动力不足。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱，关注盘面筑底信号 跨期：无 跨品 ...

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the propane and butane market is not explicitly provided in the report Group 2: Core View - The market has insufficient driving forces and the PG futures price is in a weak and volatile state, with limited upward momentum despite being at a relatively low level [1] - The domestic spot price of civil liquefied gas declined locally yesterday, with relatively good transactions in the East China region, mainly driven by downstream rigid - demand purchases [1] - Overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic arrival volume may continue to be high, maintaining an overall abundant supply [1] - The demand for the combustion end in the off - season remains weak. Although the operating rate of downstream deep - processing devices has marginally improved recently, the product profit situation has not completely reversed, and the power for continuous demand growth is insufficient [1] - The strategy for unilateral trading is to expect a weak and volatile market, and to pay attention to the bottom - building signals of the futures price [2] Group 3: Summary by Content Market Analysis - On August 11, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4320 - 4530 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3990 - 4360 yuan/ton; North China market, 4360 - 4590 yuan/ton; East China market, 4350 - 4450 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4350 - 4540 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4100 - 4250 yuan/ton; South China market, 4298 - 4500 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 563 dollars/ton (up 7 dollars/ton) and 538 dollars/ton (up 24 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4386 yuan/ton (up 19 yuan/ton) and 4190 yuan/ton (up 153 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - In the first half of September 2025, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 558 dollars/ton (up 6 dollars/ton) and 538 dollars/ton (up 28 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4426 yuan/ton (up 90 yuan/ton) and 4229 yuan/ton (up 223 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] Strategy - Unilateral trading: Expect a weak and volatile market and pay attention to the bottom - building signals of the futures price; Inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading strategies are not provided [2]