中东供应风险骤增，LPG内外盘大幅推涨 市场分析 液化石油气日报 | 2026-03-03 1、 3月2日地区价格：山东市场，4550-4650；东北市场，3670-4100；华北市场，4250-4620；华东市场，4350-4610； 沿江市场，4760-4970；西北市场，4150-4460；华南市场，4920-5050。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、 2026年4月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷740美元/吨，涨75美元/吨，丁烷735美元/吨，涨75美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5640元/吨，涨572元/吨，丁烷5602元/吨，涨572元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、 2026年4月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷740美元/吨，涨85美元/吨，丁烷735美元/吨，涨85美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5640元/吨，涨648元/吨，丁烷5602元/吨，涨648元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 周末美国与以色列对伊朗发动军事袭击，并造成伊朗最高领袖哈梅内伊死亡。作为报复，伊朗展开多轮导弹和无 人机反击，目标涵盖中东地区27个美军基地（分布在巴林、科威特、约旦等地）以及以色列的军事指挥中心和国 防工业 ...

部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 免责声明: 以上内容所依据的信息均来源于交易所、媒体及资讯公司等发布的公开资料或通过合法授权渠道向发布人取得的资讯，我们力求分析及建议内 容的客观、公正，研究方法专业审慎，分析结论合理，但公司对信息来源的准确性和完整性不作任何保证，也不保证所依据的信息和建议不会 发生任何变化。且全部分析及建议内容仅供参考，不构成对您的任何投资建议及入市依据，客户应当自主做出期货交易决策，独立承担期货交 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/03 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/24 4760 4424 4500 640 583 540 4380 73 ...

LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2026/03/02 L P G 日期 华南液化气 华东液化气 山东液化气 丙烷CFR华南 丙烷CIF日 本 CP预测合 同价 山东醚后碳四 山东烷基 化油 纸面进口利润 主力基差 2026/02/13 4750 4467 4470 621 551 529 4460 7280 -171 315 2026/02/24 4760 4424 4500 640 583 540 4380 7300 -289 -58 2026/02/25 4770 4424 4500 641 600 540 4380 7300 -272 14 2026/02/26 4760 4444 4480 645 631 550 4410 7300 -301 -22 2026/02/27 4765 4429 4500 644 638 551 4420 7300 -300 10 日度变化 5 -15 20 -1 7 1 10 0 1 32 周度观点 上周盘面上行，主要受地缘、沙特装置故障影响。基差-342（-76），4-5月差73（-8）。仓单6679手（-83）。最便宜交割品是上海民 用4200（+50）。FEI月差4 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2026-02-27 沙特供应收紧，进口成本保持坚挺 市场分析 1、2月26日地区价格：山东市场，4450-4500；东北市场，3670-4100；华北市场，4180-4450；华东市场，4200-4400； 沿江市场，4560-4780；西北市场，4050-4250；华南市场，4600-4850。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2026年3月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷670美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5106元/吨，涨62元/吨，丁烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2026年3月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷660美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，丁烷650美元/吨，涨10美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷5030元/吨，涨63元/吨，丁烷4954元/吨，涨63元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 25日晚间沙特juaymah NGL设施突发故障，导致Ras Tanura码头3月部分装船计划被取消，外盘纸货维持强势行情， 国际市场偏紧、进口成本较高的局面延续，国内化工装置利润或将受到进一步压制。除了意外的不可抗力外 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. It is recommended to maintain a light position before the Spring Festival and pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The operating rate of PDH has marginally increased due to the restart of some devices, but there is still a gap compared to the previous level. The overseas supply has tightened marginally, and the external market has phased support, but there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost suppresses the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk. During the Spring Festival, the main uncertainty in the market comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the United States escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied [1] 3. Summary According to Relevant Contents Market Analysis - On February 12, the regional prices of LPG were as follows: Shandong market, 4380 - 4470 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 3740 - 4200 yuan/ton; North China market, 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market, 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 4590 - 4850 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market, 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 638 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4878 yuan/ton for propane and 4802 yuan/ton for butane, both down 37 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane were 628 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, both down 5 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices were 4802 yuan/ton for propane and 4726 yuan/ton for butane, down 37 yuan/ton and 36 yuan/ton respectively [1] - The CP propane - butane swap in the external market had a correction yesterday, while the domestic LPG spot price remained stable overall with partial increases. The East China spot market was mainly stable, with sellers having a low willingness to adjust prices before the festival, and the trading atmosphere was mediocre. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures. Recently, the overseas supply has tightened marginally, especially in the United States where production and inventory have significantly declined due to the cold wave, providing phased support to the external market. However, there are still resistance factors in the market. The high raw material cost has suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, resulting in negative demand feedback. This week, the restart of some devices has driven the operating rate up to 65%, but it is still far from the previous level of 75%. The price inversion of ether post - carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk, especially for the main PG2603 contract, where the pressure of concentrated warrant cancellation will be more obvious [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the situation in Iran and maintain a light position before the festival. There are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints - The intraday 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). The warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable with the local transaction center moving down. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30). The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data | Date | South China LPG | East China LPG | Shandong LPG | Propane CFR South China | Propane CIF Japan | CP Forecast Contract Price | Shandong Ether - after C4 | Shandong Alkylation Oil | Paper Import Profit | Main Contract Basis | | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | ---- | | 2026/02/06 | 4835 | 4475 | 4440 | 635 | 569 | 532 | 4240 | 7230 | -213 | 317 | | 2026/02/09 | 4765 | 4475 | 4470 | 636 | 576 | 534 | 4370 | 7280 | -281 | 381 | | 2026/02/10 | 4750 | 4475 | 4490 | 638 | 578 | 538 | 4450 | 7280 | -305 | 324 | | 2026/02/11 | 4750 | 4475 | 4430 | 635 | 581 | 538 | 4450 | 7250 | -282 | 313 | | 2026/02/12 | 4750 | 4467 | 4440 | 635 | 571 | 534 | 4460 | 7280 | -274 | 296 | | Daily Change | 0 | -8 | 10 | 0 | -10 | -4 | 10 | 30 | 8 | -17 | [1] Daily Viewpoint - The 3 - 4 month spread is -206 (+52), and the 4 - 5 month spread is 88 (+6). Warehouse receipts remain unchanged. The East China market is mostly stable, with local transaction centers moving down, and the mainstream transaction price is 4150 - 4800 yuan/ton. As the Spring Festival approaches, the market transportation capacity gradually decreases, and refineries are actively shipping. It is expected that the East China market will remain stable in the short - term, with local areas possibly weakening [1] Weekly Viewpoint - This week, the futures price fluctuated and declined, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG itself. The basis strengthened by 163 to -71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG). The 3 - 4 month spread is -303 (-9). Warehouse receipts are 6902 lots (+1035), with 1000 lots added by Wuchan Zhongda. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4150 (+30) [1] - The overseas paper - cargo monthly spread has risen, and the oil - gas ratio has fluctuated. The domestic - overseas spread has weakened. PG - FEI c1 is 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB is 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP is 10 (+13). Freight rates have increased. The actual landed cost has fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPJ spread has widened, with the latest at -44.75 (-15.75) [1] - PDH profit has declined. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, ship arrivals decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct; external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand has increased, and PDH operating rate is 62.66% (+1.94 pct). The temperature has slightly warmed up but is still low, and the rigid demand on the combustion side is still acceptable [1] - As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream replenishment is coming to an end. It is expected that the transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will mainly focus on inventory clearance. Overall, the domestic basis is still weak; due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG, the downward space for civil LPG may be limited before the festival; the 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and subsequent attention should be paid to warehouse receipts. The overseas market is still tight in the short - term, with high freight rates, and geopolitics and cold snaps are still key factors that need continuous attention [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral investment rating is neutral [2] Group 2: Report's Core View - The pre - holiday atmosphere is dull, and domestic LPG spot prices are generally stable with partial slight declines [1] - The upstream in the East China market has good sales volume, no inventory pressure, and industry players are actively supporting the market. The East China market is still at a low level considering the main delivery areas of PG futures [1] - Recently, overseas LPG supply has tightened marginally, especially due to the significant decline in US production and inventory affected by the cold wave, providing phased support to the outer - market. But there are still resistance factors in the market [1] - High raw material costs suppress the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, causing negative demand feedback. Although some devices restarted this week, the profit situation has not improved significantly [1] - The price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civil gas also exerts additional pressure on the PG disk [1] - The game between warehouse receipts and delivery disturbs the market, and the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts is more obvious for the main PG2603 contract [1] - The potential uncertainty in the market before the Spring Festival comes from the geopolitical level. If the conflict between Iran and the US escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic LPG supply, which is a potential upward risk factor for the disk. Otherwise, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave fades [1] Group 3: Market Analysis Summary Regional Prices - On February 11, the regional prices of LPG in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4380 - 4480 yuan/ton; Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton; North China market 4150 - 4460 yuan/ton; East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton; Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton; South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] Imported Prices in March 2026 - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane in East China and South China increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 643 US dollars/ton and 633 US dollars/ton respectively, and the CIF prices of butane also increased by 1 US dollar/ton to 633 US dollars/ton and 623 US dollars/ton respectively. The corresponding RMB - converted prices of propane and butane increased by 6 yuan/ton [1] Group 4: Strategy Summary - Unilateral strategy: Be neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iran situation, and operate with a light position before the Spring Festival [2] - No strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The short - term outlook for the East China LPG market is expected to remain stable, with a possible slight decline in local transaction prices. The internal basis of the LPG market is still weak, and the downside risk for the civil LPG market during pre - holiday inventory clearance is limited due to the large price difference between propane and civil LPG. The 3 - 4 month spread is fairly valued, and the situation of warehouse receipts needs to be monitored. The external market remains tight in the short term, with high freight rates, and geopolitical factors and cold snaps are key factors that need continuous attention [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Situation - The March - April spread rebounded, with the 3 - 4 month spread at - 275 (+22) and the 4 - 5 month spread at 89 (-2). Warehouse receipts remained unchanged. The East China market was generally stable, with mainstream transactions ranging from 4,150 to 4,800 yuan per ton. Market transportation capacity is gradually decreasing, and refineries are mainly focused on stabilizing inventory before the holiday, with a cautious attitude and limited willingness to adjust prices [1] Weekly Situation - The futures price fluctuated downward this week, mainly due to the decline in oil prices and the weak basis of PG. The basis strengthened by 163 to - 71 (calculated using Shanghai civil LPG), the 3 - 4 month spread was - 303 (-9), and the number of warehouse receipts was 6,902 lots (+1,035), with Wuchan Zhongda adding 1,000 lots. The current cheapest deliverable is Shanghai civil LPG at 4,150 (+30). The monthly spread of overseas paper goods increased, and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated. The internal - external spread weakened, with PG - FEI c1 at 75.26 (-9.6), FEI - MB at 185.6 (+16.6), and FEI - CP at 10 (+13). Freight rates increased. The discount changed significantly due to contract roll - over, but the actual landed cost fluctuated weakly. The FEI - MOPI spread widened to - 44.75 (-15.75). PDH profit decreased. Port storage capacity decreased by 1.67 pct, and the number of incoming vessels decreased by 5.22%, mainly in East China; refinery storage capacity decreased by 0.39 pct, and external sales increased by 0.94%. Chemical demand increased, with PDH operating rate at 62.66% (+1.94 pct), and Donghua Zhangjiagang and Ningbo Formosa Plastics increasing their loads. Yantai Wanhua Phase II is expected to resume next week. Although the temperature has slightly warmed up, it is still low, and the rigid demand for combustion is fair. As the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream restocking is coming to an end. It is expected that transportation capacity will decline next week, and factories will focus on inventory clearance [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral, focus on the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2] Core View - On February 10, the regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China were as follows: Shandong market 4350 - 4530 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3740 - 4150 yuan/ton, North China market 4150 - 4480 yuan/ton, East China market 4150 - 4570 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4590 - 4830 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4250 - 4350 yuan/ton, South China market 4680 - 4800 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 642 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 632 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4909 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4833 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB; in South China, they were 632 dollars/ton (up 5 dollars/ton) and 622 dollars/ton (up 4 dollars/ton) respectively, equivalent to 4833 yuan/ton (up 34 yuan/ton) and 4756 yuan/ton (up 26 yuan/ton) in RMB [1] - The domestic liquefied gas spot prices showed a mixed trend. In East China, the civilian end of liquefied gas remained stable while the ether - after product prices decreased. The upstream focused on sales volume, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was acceptable. Overseas supply tightened marginally, but the PG futures market was relatively weak. High raw material costs suppressed downstream profits, and the price inversion between ether - after carbon four and civilian gas also put pressure on the PG market. There were also disturbances from warehouse receipts and delivery games [1] - Short - term attention should be paid to the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies and potential upward risks for the market. If the situation eases, the LPG market is still expected to be oversupplied [1] Summary by Relevant Directory Market Analysis - Regional prices of liquefied gas in different markets in China on February 10 [1] - CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East and South China in the first half of March 2026 and their RMB equivalent [1] - The mixed trend of domestic liquefied gas spot prices, the situation of the civilian end and ether - after product in East China, upstream and downstream conditions, overseas supply, and the influence factors on the PG market [1] - The need to focus on the Iranian situation and its potential impact on the market [1] Strategy - Unilateral strategy: Neutral, focus on the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Other strategies (inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, options): None [2] Figures - Figures showing the spot prices of civilian liquefied gas and ether - after carbon four in different regions, as well as the closing prices, month - to - month differences, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral. Pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] 2. Core View of the Report - The market driving force is limited, and geopolitical risks still exist. Although the overseas supply has tightened marginally and the Saudi CP has increased in February, the PG futures market is relatively weak, and domestic spot prices generally declined yesterday. High raw material costs have suppressed the profits of downstream PDH and other devices, leading to negative demand feedback. The price inversion between etherified C4 and civil gas has also put additional pressure on the PG futures market. In addition, the game between warehouse receipts and delivery has disturbed the market, especially for the PG2603 contract, where the pressure of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts will be more obvious. In the short term, it is necessary to focus on the development of the Iranian situation. If the conflict escalates, it may lead to a significant tightening of domestic supplies, which is a potential upward risk factor for the market. However, if the situation eases or remains controllable, the LPG fundamentals are still expected to be oversupplied after the impact of the US cold wave subsides, and there is still resistance above the market [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 9, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 4350 - 4510; Northeast market, 3740 - 4150; North China market, 4230 - 4470; East China market, 4150 - 4570; Yangtze River market, 4640 - 4930; Northwest market, 4250 - 4400; South China market, 4780 - 4800 [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in East China were 637 US dollars/ton and 628 US dollars/ton respectively, up 10 US dollars/ton and 11 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4875 yuan/ton, up 71 yuan/ton, and butane was 4807 yuan/ton, up 80 yuan/ton [1] - In the first half of March 2026, the CIF prices of frozen propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 618 US dollars/ton respectively, up 8 US dollars/ton and 9 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4799 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan/ton, and butane was 4730 yuan/ton, up 64 yuan/ton [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral, pay attention to the development of the Iranian situation and maintain a light position before the festival [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Cross - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]