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LPG早报-20260401
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-04-01 02:42
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The disk oscillated and declined, with the basis at -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31), and 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, the US terminal operation is at full capacity, and the inventory in April still has support, but the subsequent supply shortage may become more prominent. [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihood in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low, and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high. [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, and short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, so it is recommended to wait and see. [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Daily Market - On March 31, the PG2605 contract closed at 6339 (-267) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 139 (-31) and 0 warehouse receipts (-1300). The night session closed at 6501 (+162), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 166 (+27). [1] - Constrained by the successive decline of the related oil product market, the refinery's willingness to support the market is not strong. Shandong civil gas was at 6370 (-81), Shandong ether - post at 6510 (-40), Shandong propane at 6807 (-25), and Longkou Port propane at 7500 (+0). [1] Weekly Viewpoints - The basis was -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread was 193 (+31), and there were 1300 lots of warehouse receipts (-1800). The cheapest deliverable was Shandong ether - post 6080 (+130). Shandong civil gas was at 6100 (+110), East China civil gas at 7065 (+876), and South China civil gas at 7205 (+905). [1] - The FEI month spread was 104 US dollars (-8), the oil - gas ratio oscillated, and the internal and external PG - FEI c2 reached 156 (+13). The South China CP propane arrival discount was 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread narrowed to -122 (-46). [1] - Propane import profit increased significantly. The spot profit of Chinese PDH - made propylene weakened to 734 (-611); the paper goods of PDH - made PP in East and South China oscillated significantly. [1] - The port inventory ratio was 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume was 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity utilization was 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release was 51.78 tons (-3.36%). [1] - The PDH operating rate was 63.6% (-2.03pct); the utilization rate of alkylated oil production capacity was 38.6% (+0pct); the MTBE operating rate was 67.3% (+0.76pct); the MTBE export order was 0 tons (-4.5). [1]
供应端矛盾逐渐积累,现货价格普遍上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 06:10
Report Summary 1. Report's Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View The contradiction on the supply side of LPG is gradually accumulating, and spot prices have generally risen. The unclear situation in the Middle East has led to a low number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and the impact on LPG supply is gradually being realized. The arrival prices continue to rise, and domestic spot prices in various regions have generally increased. Before the substantial recovery of Middle East logistics, the LPG supply gap will persist and its impact will gradually accumulate, and downstream chemical plants will face the pressure of passive production cuts due to insufficient raw materials. Although there is room for growth in US exports, it cannot fully offset the Middle East gap, and attention should be paid to the potential negotiation progress between Iran and the United States [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 30, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6400 - 6450 yuan/ton; Northeast market, 5900 - 6250 yuan/ton; North China market, 6250 - 6570 yuan/ton; East China market, 6800 - 7400 yuan/ton; Yangtze River market, 6730 - 6960 yuan/ton; Northwest market, 5750 - 5900 yuan/ton; South China market, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane for frozen cargoes in East China were both 1070 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton. The RMB - converted prices of propane and butane were both 8154 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF prices of propane and butane for frozen cargoes were also 1070 US dollars/ton, up 16 US dollars/ton, and the RMB - converted prices were both 8154 yuan/ton, up 131 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term violent fluctuations, mainly on the sidelines in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2]
LPG早报-20260331
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-31 01:25
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The disk fluctuates and declines, with the latest basis at -588 (+457) and the 5 - 6 month spread at 193 (+31) [1] - The conflict between the US and Iran shows no sign of cooling, US terminal operations are at full capacity, April inventory is still supported, but subsequent supply shortages may become more prominent [1] - There may be measures to ensure people's livelihoods in China, the PP - PG spread continues to widen, but the current valuation is not low and there may be negative feedback from the terminal, so it is not advisable to chase the high [1] - The valuation of the PG 5 - 6 month spread is not low, short - term geopolitical news has a large impact, and it is recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Quotes - Shandong civil LPG is 6430 (+0), Shandong ether - after LPG is 6550 (+50), Shandong propane is 6832 (+276), and Longkou Port propane is 7500 (+0) [1] - Platts assesses the CP South China CIF CFR discount at 358.5 (+20) at 6:30 pm on Monday, and the CFR price is 1013.5 (+35) [1] - At 11 pm on Monday, FEI is reported at 925.5 (+29.5), the 4 - 5 month spread is 105 (+3), and the 5 - 6 month spread is 77 (+9) [1] - PG - FEI05 internal - external spread is 136.8 (-37.9), and FEI - MOPJ is - 124 (-11) [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The basis is -588 (+457), the 5 - 6 month spread is 193 (+31), and the number of warehouse receipts is 1300 (-1800) [1] - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after LPG at 6080 (+130) [1] - Shandong civil LPG is 6100 (+110), East China civil LPG is 7065 (+876), and South China civil LPG is 7205 (+905) [1] - The FEI month spread is 104 US dollars (-8), and the oil - gas ratio fluctuates [1] - The internal - external PG - FEI c2 is 156 (+13) [1] - The South China CP propane CIF discount is 368 (-133), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 45 (-5), 182 (-91), and 245 (+245) respectively [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread narrows to -122 (-46) [1] - Propane import profit rises significantly [1] - The spot profit of China's PDH - made propylene weakens to 734 (-611), and the paper futures of PDH - made PP in East and South China fluctuate significantly [1] - The port inventory ratio is 36.08% (-0.24pct), the arrival volume is 52.8 tons (-18.27%), the factory storage capacity is 24.92% (-1.13pct), and the external release is 51.78 tons (-3.36%) [1] - PDH operating rate is 63.6% (-2.03pct), alkylated oil capacity utilization rate is 38.6% (+0pct), MTBE operating rate is 67.3% (+0.76pct), and MTBE export orders are 0 tons (-4.5) [1]
供应缺口或持续积累,到岸成本再度反弹
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-27 05:13
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The supply gap of LPG may continue to accumulate, and the arrival cost has rebounded again. The market's expectation of the easing of the Iranian situation has increased, leading to a decline in crude oil and internal and external prices. However, the war has not really subsided, and the number of oil tankers passing through the Strait of Hormuz remains low, indicating that the impact on LPG supply continues to spread. The arrival price rebounded again yesterday. The spot prices in various domestic regions showed mixed trends yesterday. The mainstream transaction prices of civil LPG and ether-based C4 in Shandong decreased compared with the previous working day, and the sales volume of manufacturers was poor, with the market sentiment declining. Before the substantial recovery of the Middle East logistics, the LPG supply gap will continue to exist and its impact will gradually accumulate. Attention should be paid to the potential negotiation progress between Iran and the United States [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 26, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6180 - 6250; Northeast market, 5620 - 6010; North China market, 6200 - 6350; East China market, 6700 - 7350; Yangtze River market, 6840 - 6960; Northwest market, 5700 - 5900; South China market, 7150 - 7400 [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in East China was 1050 US dollars/ton for propane and 1050 US dollars/ton for butane, both up 70 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price was 7984 yuan/ton for propane and 7984 yuan/ton for butane, both up 549 yuan/ton [1]. - In the second half of April 2026, the arrival price of frozen LPG in South China was 1050 US dollars/ton for propane and 1050 US dollars/ton for butane, both up 70 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price was 7984 yuan/ton for propane and 7984 yuan/ton for butane, both up 549 yuan/ton [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, mainly on the sidelines in the short term. - Inter - period: None. - Cross - variety: None. - Spot - futures: None. - Options: None [2].
现货价格弱势运行,宏观风险仍存
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 05:37
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot price is running weakly, and macro - risks still exist. With the marginal easing of the Middle East situation, the prices of outer - market crude oil and LPG have declined, and the PG futures price has fallen from a high. The domestic spot prices in various regions showed mixed trends yesterday. Due to the easing of the Middle East situation and the outer - market trend, the manufacturers of civil gas and ether - post carbon four have offered discounts to increase sales. Although there have been significant pull - backs in both the inner and outer markets, the situation in Iran remains unclear, the Strait of Hormuz has not resumed navigation, and the news is constantly changing. In a high - volatility market, both long and short positions lack a safety margin, so caution is needed [1] - The short - term strategy for unilateral trading is to mainly wait and see due to short - term sharp fluctuations. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 25th, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6380 - 6500; Northeast market, 5620 - 6010; North China market, 6200 - 6450; East China market, 6700 - 7350; Yangtze River area market, 6840 - 6960; Northwest market, 5700 - 6015; South China market, 7100 - 7300 [1] - In the second half of April 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton, and the price of butane was 980 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 100 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, the price of propane was 7435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 762 yuan/ton, and the price of butane was 7435 yuan/ton, a decrease of 762 yuan/ton. The same price changes occurred in South China [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term sharp fluctuations, mainly wait and see in the short term [2] - Inter - period: None [2] - Inter - variety: None [2] - Spot - futures: None [2] - Options: None [2]
LPG早报-20260326
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-26 01:45
Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The LPG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. Currently, the basis is weak (-1000), domestic refinery gas is sufficient in the short term, and there are intentions to deliver warehouse receipts from some warehouses. The 4 - 5 month spread on the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. Looking ahead, a shortage of LPG in China in the second half of April is inevitable. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage, and the civil LPG demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will remain strong [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Changes - From March 19 - 25, 2026, prices of LPG in South China, East China, and Shandong showed an upward trend. For example, South China LPG increased from 6215 on March 19 to 7210 on March 25. Paper import profit increased from -3111 on March 19 to 1 on March 25, and the main basis changed from -392 to 120 [1]. - On March 25, the PG2605 contract closed at 6550 (-286) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 242 (+47), and the number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+0). The night - session closed at 6565 (-29), and the 5 - 6 month spread was 225 (-17) [1]. - Shandong civil LPG price was 6470 (-80), Shandong ether - post carbon four was 6470 (+0), Shandong propane was 6870 (-80), and Longkou Port propane was 7500 (+0) [1]. 3.2 Weekly Data Changes - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures price rose significantly. The basis was -1057 (-736), and the 4 - 5 month spread was 64 (-68) [1]. - The number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+8), with Wanhua increasing by 1300, Jingbo decreasing by 428, and Yunda decreasing by 880. The cheapest deliverable product was Shandong ether - post at 5950 (+520) [1]. - The FEI month spread was 112 US dollars (+28), the oil - gas price ratio decreased, and the domestic and international PG - FEI c1 dropped to 35 (-15.5) [1]. - The on - shore discount of South China CP propane was 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was -76 (+52) [1]. - The spot profit of domestic PDH - made propylene weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH - made PP in East and South China decreased. The port inventory ratio was 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity utilization was 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate was 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1].
盘面从高位回落,市场情绪偏谨慎
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 05:18
Group 1: Market Analysis - On March 24, regional prices were as follows: Shandong market, 6500 - 6600; Northeast market, 5620 - 6010; North China market, 6150 - 6450; East China market, 6600 - 7140; Yangtze River market, 6650 - 6860; Northwest market, 5800 - 6000; South China market, 7098 - 7130 [1] - In the second half of April 2026, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China was 1080 US dollars/ton, down 78 US dollars/ton, and butane was 1080 US dollars/ton, down 78 US dollars/ton. The RMB - equivalent price of propane was 8197 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton, and butane was 8197 yuan/ton, down 605 yuan/ton. The same price changes applied to South China [1] - After Trump's remarks on postponing the strike against Iran, the market regarded it as a signal of marginal easing. The prices of foreign - market crude oil and LPG declined, and the PG futures price dropped from its high. In the domestic spot market, the mainstream transaction price of civil LPG in Shandong remained stable, while the mainstream transaction price of ether - after carbon four decreased compared with the previous working day. The decline in the foreign market suppressed market sentiment, and manufacturers of civil gas and ether - after carbon four were cautious in their operations. The situation in Iran was still unclear, the Strait of Hormuz was not open to navigation, and the news was changeable. In the high - volatility market, both long and short positions lacked a safety margin, so caution was needed [1] Group 2: Strategy - For unilateral trading, there will be short - term severe fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see in the short term. There are no strategies for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [2] Group 3: Figures - Figures include those of spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and Yangtze River regions, spot prices of ether - after carbon four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, Yangtze River, and Northwest regions, as well as closing prices, spreads, and trading volume and open interest of PG futures contracts [3]
LPG早报-20260325
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-25 02:36
Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak at Targe, the PG futures market has risen significantly [1] - The domestic PG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly [1] - In the future, it is highly likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will still be strong [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Daily Data - On March 24, 2026, the closing price of the PG2605 contract at 3 pm was 6836 (-162), the 5 - 6 month spread was 195 (+0), the number of warehouse receipts was 3100 (+0), the night - session closing price was 6668 (-543), and the 5 - 6 month spread was 256 (+61) [1] - On Tuesday, the price of civil LPG in Shandong was 6550 (+0), the price of ether - after carbon four in Shandong was 6470 (-70), the price of propane in Shandong was 6950 (+27), and the price of propane at Longkou Port was 7500 (+0) [1] Weekly Data - The latest basis is -1057 (-736), the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (-68), and the number of warehouse receipts is 3100 lots (+8) [1] - The cheapest deliverable is Shandong ether - after carbon four at 5950 (+520), Shandong civil LPG at 5990 (+440), East China civil LPG at 6189 (+30), and South China civil LPG at 6300 (+150) [1] - The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), the oil - gas price ratio has declined, the domestic PG - FEI c1 is 35 (-15.5) [1] - The CIF discount of South China CP propane is 501 (+108), and the FOB discounts of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively [1] - The FEI - MOPJ spread is -76 (+52) [1] - The spot profit of propylene production from domestic PDH has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PP production from PDH in East and South China has declined [1] - The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity utilization rate is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1]
LPG早报-20260324
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-24 01:30
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - Due to the escalation of the Middle East situation, attacks on gas fields in Iran and Qatar, and a compressor leak, the PG futures price has risen significantly. The domestic PG market is in a contradiction between weak reality and strong expectations. The current basis is weak, and there is sufficient refinery gas in the short - term in China. The 4 - 5 month spread of the domestic market is in a delivery game and is expected to fluctuate greatly. In the future, it is likely that there will be a shortage of goods in the second half of April in China. If the Strait is interrupted for a longer time, the international market will face a more serious shortage problem, and the civil gas demand gap will be difficult to make up, so the overseas market will still be strong [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Daily Data - On March 23, 2026, the PG2605 contract closed at 7244 (+717) at 3 pm, with a 5 - 6 month spread of 195 (+3) and 3100 (+0) warehouse receipts. The night - session closed at 6986 (-258), with a 5 - 6 month spread of 246 (+51). On Monday, the civil LPG price in Shandong was 6550 (+20), the post - ether price in Shandong was 6540 (+50), the propane price in Shandong was 6923 (+625), and the propane price at Longkou Port was 7500 (+300) [1] 2. Weekly Data - The latest basis is - 1057 (-736), the 4 - 5 month spread is 64 (-68), and there are 3100 (+8) warehouse receipts. The cheapest deliverable is Shandong post - ether at 5950 (+520). The civil LPG price in Shandong is 5990 (+440), in East China is 6189 (+30), and in South China is 6300 (+150). The FEI month spread is 112 US dollars (+28), and the oil - gas price ratio has declined. The PG - FEI c1 is 35 (-15.5). The CIF propane premium in South China is 501 (+108), and the FOB premiums of AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane are 50 (-54.75), 273.5 (+72.9), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread is - 76 (+52). The spot profit of domestic PDH to propylene has weakened slightly, and the paper profit of PDH to PP in East and South China has declined. The port inventory ratio is 35.84% (+0.79 pct), the enterprise storage capacity ratio is 26.05% (+1.11 pct), and the PDH operating rate is 65.63% (+2.4 pct) [1]
LPG早报-20260320
Yong An Qi Huo· 2026-03-20 01:21
Group 1 - The investment rating of the report is not provided [1] Group 2 - The report's core view is that the LPG market had significant fluctuations and a rising center last week, mainly following oil prices. The basis fluctuated sharply, and the 4 - 5 month spread was positive. The key factor for the future is when the Strait of Hormuz will resume traffic, and short - term spot quotes depend on international oil prices. A shortage of LPG is likely in April in China, more severe in East and South China than in Shandong. The short - term futures price may continue to follow oil prices, and the month spread will be strong [1] Group 3 Daily Quotes - On March 19, the PG2604 contract closed at 6392 (+626) at 3 pm, with a 4 - 5 month spread of 109 (+13) and 1800 (+0) warehouse receipts. The night session closed at 6660 (+449), with a 4 - 5 month spread of 8 (-101). Shandong's civil LPG continued to rise, with a mainstream transaction of 5600 - 5850 yuan/ton. Shandong's ether - post LPG was 5810 (+300). Longkou Port's propane price was 7200 (+0), and Shandong's propane - propylene price was 8525 (+480). The East China market was stable with some individual increases, with a mainstream transaction of 5760 - 6340 yuan/ton [1] Weekly Viewpoints - Last week, the futures price fluctuated greatly and the center rose, mainly following oil prices. The basis rose and fell sharply, with the latest at - 321 (+346), and the 4 - 5 month spread at 132 (+5). There were 3108 (-1544) warehouse receipts. The cheapest deliverable was Shandong's ether - post LPG at 5430 (+280). Shandong's civil LPG was 5550 (+610), and East China's civil LPG was 6159 (+1178). The FEI month spread was 84 US dollars (+27), and the oil - gas price ratio fluctuated downward. The PG - FEI c1 spread was 52.4 (-45). The CIF discount for South China's CP propane was 402 (+30). The FOB discounts for AFEI, US Gulf, and Middle East propane were 104.75 (+12.75), 200.6 (+41.7), and 0 (+0) respectively. The FEI - MOPJ spread was - 126 (-59). The spot profit of PDH strengthened significantly. The port inventory ratio was 35.05% (-5.5pct). The external supply of LPG sample enterprises was 54.4 (-1.8) million tons. The PDH operating rate was 63.23 (-1.7pct) [1]