液化石油气日报 | 2025-10-10 市场压力仍存，节后盘面消化利空 市场分析 1、\t10月9日地区价格：山东市场，4520-4560；东北市场，4020-4280；华北市场，4350-4600；华东市场，4260-4630； 沿江市场，4590-4830；西北市场，4400-4500；华南市场，4548-4750。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年11月上半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷540美元/吨，跌8美元/吨，丁烷520美元/吨，跌15美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4227元/吨，跌60元/吨，丁烷4070元/吨，跌115元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年11月上半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷535美元/吨，跌6美元/吨，丁烷515美元/吨，跌13美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4188元/吨，跌44元/吨，丁烷4031元/吨，跌99元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 | 图1：山东民用液化气现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 | | --- | --- | | 图2：华东民用液化气现货价格 | 单位：元/吨 3 ...

| LPG早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/10 | | | | | | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | MB丙烷现 CP预测合 山东烷基 纸面进口利 山东醚后碳四 主力基差 货 同价 化油 润 | 华东液化 日期 华南液化气 气 | | 丙烷CFR华 丙烷CIF日 山东液化气 南 本 | | | | | | | | | | | 72 540 4620 7680 -179 220 | 2025/09/2 4600 4387 5 | | 4570 583 530 | | | | | | | | | | | | | 2025/09/2 | 6 | | | | | | | | 4650 4393 4580 584 532 73 543 4620 7680 -137 203 | | | 72 542 4570 7620 -131 170 | 2025/09/2 4640 4363 | | ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/10/09 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 7680 | -179 | 220 | | 2025/09/2 6 | 4650 | 4393 | 4580 | 584 | 532 | 73 | 543 | 4620 | 76 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None; Cross - variety: None; Spot - futures: None; Options: None [2] Core Viewpoints - The mainstream price of LPG remains stable. Before the holiday, the demand is mainly for essential needs. Sellers focus on inventory reduction, and downstream buyers purchase as needed. The overseas supply remains abundant, and the domestic supply also maintains an overall abundant state. The increase in the demand of the combustion terminal is lower than expected, and the growth of deep - processing is limited by profit factors. The overall supply - demand pattern of LPG is relatively loose, and there is strong resistance in the market. After continuous corrections, it is expected that the short - term downward space of the futures market is limited, but it lacks the impetus to strengthen [1] Market Analysis - On September 29, the regional prices were as follows: Shandong market: 4,550 - 4,600 yuan; Northeast market: 4,020 - 4,280 yuan; North China market: 4,400 - 4,650 yuan; East China market: 4,210 - 4,630 yuan; Yangtze River region market: 4,590 - 4,830 yuan; Northwest market: 4,400 - 4,500 yuan; South China market: 4,548 - 4,750 yuan [1] - In the second half of October 2025, the CIF price of frozen propane in East China, China was 595 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 582 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,657 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,555 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton. In South China, the CIF price of frozen propane was 588 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton, and butane was 575 US dollars/ton, up 2 US dollars/ton. In RMB terms, propane was 4,602 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton, and butane was 4,500 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] Figures - Figures include the spot prices of civil LPG in Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast, and the Yangtze River region; the spot prices of ether - post - carbon - four in Shandong, East China, North China, Northeast, the Yangtze River region, and Northwest; the closing prices of PG futures' main contract, index, and near - month contract; the near - month spread of PG futures; and the trading volume and open interest of PG futures' main contract and total [3]

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/30 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 7680 | -209 | 242 | | 2025/09/2 5 | 4600 | 4387 | 4570 | 583 | 530 | 72 | 540 | 4620 | 76 ...

| | | | | | | LPG早报 | | | | 研究中心能化团队 2025/09/29 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | L P G | | | | | | | | | | | | | 日期 | 华南液化气 | 华东液化 气 | 山东液化气 | 丙烷CFR华 南 | 丙烷CIF日 本 | MB丙烷现 货 | CP预测合 同价 | 山东醚后碳四 | 山东烷基 化油 | 纸面进口利 润 | 主力基差 | | 2025/09/2 2 | 4640 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 536 | 71 | 544 | 4680 | 7680 | -181 | 211 | | 2025/09/2 3 | 4600 | 4385 | 4550 | 590 | 540 | 71 | 544 | 4670 | 7680 | -220 | 250 | | 2025/09/2 4 | 4600 | 4387 | 4550 | 587 | 538 | 72 | 544 | 4630 | 76 ...

国泰君安期货·能源化工 C3产业链周度报告 国泰君安期货研究所 日期：2025年9月28日 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint CONTENT 总结 01 LPG部分 02 丙烯部分 03 价格&价差 供应 需求&库存 价格&价差 平衡表 供应 需求 下游库存 Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 2 本周LPG观点：短期支撑不弱 供应 国产方面，液化气总商品量53.9万吨，较上周环比增加0.1%；其中，民用气商品量21.1万吨（+4.8%），醚后商品量18.0万吨（-1.6%）；当前， 国内民用气商品量处于偏低水平，而醚后碳四商品量维持高位水平。进口方面，国际原油趋势上行，但远东市场化工需求支撑环比偏弱，FEI 价格窄幅下调，美国-远东套利窗口有所缩小。本周，隆众口径中国国际船到港量较上周环比减少4.1万吨，以华东为主，受台风影响，20日以 后所有计划均延迟至下周，目前锚地多船待 ...

液化石油气日报 | 2025-09-26 PDH装置利润连续下滑，需求增长动力不足 市场分析 1、\t9月25日地区价格：山东市场，4540-4600；东北市场，4000-4260；华北市场，4400-4650；华东市场，4260-4550； 沿江市场，4540-4700；西北市场，4400-4500；华南市场，4498-4670。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 2、\t2025年10月下半月中国华东冷冻货到岸价格丙烷596美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷583美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4666元/吨，跌37元/吨，丁烷4565元/吨，跌36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 3、\t2025年10月下半月中国华南冷冻货到岸价格丙烷589美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，丁烷576美元/吨，跌5美元/吨，折 合人民币价格丙烷4612元/吨，跌36元/吨，丁烷4510元/吨，跌36元/吨。（数据来源：卓创资讯） 近日PG盘面呈现震荡下跌走势，昨日有所企稳但反弹乏力，反映基本面宽松的格局并未逆转，市场预期偏弱。现 货方面，昨日国内现货价格涨跌互现。其中，华东民用气市场主流价格出现下调，成交尚可，走量优先。当地醚 后碳四价 ...

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to remain weak overall. The cheapest delivery location is Shandong, where the supply is abundant due to incoming resources, while the chemical demand is declining [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Contents - **Price Changes**: - **Daily Changes**: On Thursday, the low - end price in East China was 4387 (+0), in Shandong was 4570 (+20), and in South China was 4600 (+0). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4620 (-10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 7 (-55) and a 10 - 11 month spread of 113 (+33). FEI and CP c1 decreased to 550 (-3) and 544 (-3) dollars/ton respectively. The FEI monthly spread remained unchanged at 6 dollars, and the CP monthly spread dropped to -14.5 dollars (-3.5) [1]. - **Weekly Changes**: The PG main contract fluctuated strongly. The cheapest delivery product was Shandong civil gas at 4500. The basis weakened to 51 (-74). The 10 - 11 month spread was 49 (-20), the 11 - 12 month spread was 62 (+3). The number of warehouse receipts was 13002 (-6). The external market price increased. The internal - external price difference decreased slightly: PG - CP to 75 (-3); PG - FEI to 67.6 (-9.3). The FEI - CP was 7.5 (+6.5). The US - Asia arbitrage window closed [1]. - **Market Conditions**: - **Supply and Demand**: Incoming shipments decreased, external sales increased slightly, but demand narrowed, leading to an increase in both port and factory inventories. Chemical demand decreased, with the PDH operating rate at 70.49% (-2.61). The operating rates of alkylation and MTBE both declined [1]. - **Profitability**: The profit of PDH to PP continued to weaken, and the production gross margins of alkylated oil and MTBE were low [1]. - **Shipping and Spreads**: Freight rates continued to rise, with the latest rates from the US Gulf to Japan at 155 (+11) and from the Middle East to the Far East at 82 (+7). The FEI - MOPJ was -41.5 (-6.5), and the naphtha spread strengthened [1].

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