能源化工期权 2025-11-24 能源化工期权策略早报 | 卢品先 | 投研经理 | 从业资格号：F3047321 | 交易咨询号：Z0015541 | 邮箱：lupx@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | -- ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - Strategies mainly involve constructing option portfolio strategies dominated by sellers and spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. - Each option variety's strategy report is compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Overview of Underlying Futures Markets - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy - chemical option underlying contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The volume PCR and open interest PCR of various energy - chemical options are provided. These indicators are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and the turning point of the underlying market [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - The pressure points, support points, and their offsets, as well as the maximum call and put open interests of various energy - chemical options, are presented, which help to analyze the pressure and support levels of the underlying assets [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, its change, annual average, call and put implied volatilities, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities of various energy - chemical options [7]. 3.5 Strategy and Suggestions for Each Option Variety 3.5.1 Energy - related Options: Crude Oil - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US crude oil inventories have different changes. The crude oil market has shown a complex price trend from August to November [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuates above the average. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 540 and the support level is 460 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [8]. 3.5.2 Energy - related Options: LPG - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The LPG market is relatively strong, with a rebound in the external market. The domestic fundamentals are tightening marginally. The market has shown a complex price trend since August [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has dropped significantly to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.8, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4250 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.3 Alcohol - related Options: Methanol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The supply may increase, and the inventory is expected to rise slightly. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak - oscillating market. The pressure level is 2500 and the support level is 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.4 Alcohol - related Options: Ethylene Glycol - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The weekly production has a slight increase, and the port inventory has increased significantly. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level is 4500 and the support level is 4000 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - volatility strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin - related Options: Polypropylene - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The production has increased, and the capacity utilization rate has risen. The market has shown a weak - biased trend since August [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has dropped to near the average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7000 and the support level is 6300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.6 Rubber - related Options: Rubber - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The tire production capacity utilization rate and inventory turnover days have different changes. The market has shown a weak - oscillating trend since August [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has dropped to near the lower - than - average level after a rapid increase. The open interest PCR is below 0.6. The pressure level is 16000 and the support level is 15000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a short - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.7 Polyester - related Options: PTA - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The PTA load has been adjusted, and the market has shown a rebound - with - pressure trend since August [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a higher - than - average level. The open interest PCR is around 0.7, indicating an oscillating market. The pressure level is 4700 and the support level is 4300 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility [12]. 3.5.8 Alkali - related Options: Caustic Soda - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly, and the market has shown a weak - short - side trend since August [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is below 0.8, indicating a weak - oscillating market. The pressure level is 3000 and the support level is 2200 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. 3.5.9 Alkali - related Options: Soda Ash - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The inventory has increased year - on - year, and the market has shown a low - level weak - oscillating trend since August [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.6, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1860 and the support level is 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a bear spread strategy for direction. Build a short - volatility combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.10 Other Options: Urea - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The enterprise inventory has decreased, and the port inventory has increased. The market has shown a low - level oscillating and gradually rebounding trend since August [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.6, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1800 and the support level is 1600 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Build a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy for volatility. For spot hedging, hold a long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

11月上旬华南液化气市场价格震荡上涨，主营炼厂和进口码头供应量均减少，给予华南市场支撑。不 过，进入中下旬，供应增加、进口到岸成本预期下行，以及需求疲软的多重利空作用下，预计华南液化 气价格或呈现震荡下行趋势。 与此同时，终端需求和国际市场亦难寻利好支撑。终端需求呈现连年萎缩态势，尽管当前已步入需求旺 季，但整体表现仍不及预期，一定程度上抑制下游企业的补货积极性，供需疲软掣肘华南液化气市场走 势。 此外，国际市场亦表现弱势，截至11月11日，12月CP丙烷预期在468美元／吨，丁烷预期在462美元／ 吨，由于12月国际现货商谈贴水较11月略低，预计12月进口到岸成本较11月呈下降趋势。 综上所述，在供应增加、进口到岸成本预期下行，以及旺季需求疲软的多重因素作用下，预计11月中下 旬华南液化气价格走势或呈现震荡下行趋势，或再度触及淡季的价格低点。 （文章来源：新华财经） 11月上旬华南液化气市场价格震荡上涨，涨幅普遍在100-150元／吨。分析来看，供应减量对上旬液化 气市场价格形成有力支撑。一方面，广西石化乙烯装置于10月底顺利投产，导致液化气自用量增加，同 时北海民用气外放量出现小幅下降，带动华南炼厂民用气 ...

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is an energy and chemical options strategy morning report, covering energy, polyolefin, polyester, alkali chemical, and other energy and chemical options [2][3] - It provides an overview of the underlying futures market, option factors, and offers strategies and suggestions for each option variety [4][5][8] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various underlying futures contracts, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, and others [4] Group 3: Option Factors Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report shows the volume and open interest PCR for each option variety, which are used to describe the strength of the option underlying market and potential turning points [5] Pressure and Support Levels - It identifies the pressure and support levels for each option variety based on the strike prices with the highest open interest of call and put options [6] Implied Volatility - The report provides the implied volatility data for each option variety, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and historical volatility [7] Group 4: Strategies and Suggestions Energy Options - For crude oil options, the report suggests a short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - For LPG options, it recommends a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [10] Alcohol Options - For methanol options, the report proposes a bear spread strategy, a short call + put option combination strategy, and a long collar strategy [10] - For ethylene glycol options, it suggests a bear spread strategy, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy [11] Polyolefin Options - For polypropylene options, the report recommends a long collar strategy [11] Rubber Options - For natural rubber options, it suggests a short call + put option combination strategy [12] Polyester Options - For PTA options, the report proposes a short call + put option combination strategy [12] Alkali Chemical Options - For caustic soda options, it suggests a bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy [13] - For soda ash options, the report recommends a bear spread strategy, a short volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy [13] Urea Options - For urea options, it suggests a neutral short call + put option combination strategy and a long collar strategy [14]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the document 2. Core View of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and recommendations are provided for selected varieties. Options strategy reports are compiled based on the analysis of the underlying market, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations for each option variety. Strategies mainly involve constructing option combination strategies focused on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - The latest prices, price changes, price change percentages, trading volumes, volume changes, open interests, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts are presented. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2512) is 464, with a price increase of 4 and a price change percentage of 0.91%, trading volume of 8.02 million lots, volume change of -2.85 million lots, open interest of 2.96 million lots, and open interest change of -0.19 million lots [3]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - Volume and open interest PCR data for various energy and chemical options are provided. Volume PCR is used to describe whether the underlying market has a turning point, and open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the option underlying market. For example, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.90, with a change of -0.03, and the open interest PCR is 0.66, with a change of -0.03 [4]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - Pressure and support levels for various energy and chemical option underlying contracts are analyzed from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil (SC2512) is 500, and the support level is 440 [5]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data for various energy and chemical options are presented, including at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at-the-money implied volatility of crude oil options is 27.935%, the weighted implied volatility is 29.69%, with a change of -0.19% [6]. 3.5 Strategy and Recommendations 3.5.1 Energy Options - Crude Oil - Fundamental analysis: US refinery demand has stabilized and rebounded. During the recent oil price decline, shale oil production did not significantly decrease. OPEC exports have increased, but most are absorbed by China, so there is no obvious visible inventory in the market. In Europe, the overall refined oil inventory is in a low - level destocking state, and the crude oil inventory has increased, but refinery demand is about to enter the peak season, and the diesel crack spread remains high [7]. - Market analysis: Since July, crude oil prices have gradually weakened and then consolidated in a range. In August, prices first rose and then fell, showing short - term weak fluctuations. In September, the market continued to be weak and bearish before gradually rebounding. In October, prices fell sharply and then stopped falling and rebounded [7]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of crude oil options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is below 0.80, indicating that crude oil has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of crude oil is 500, and the support level is 450 [7]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [7]. 3.5.2 Energy Options - Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG) - Fundamental analysis: The cost - end crude oil is under pressure from oversupply on one hand and geopolitical issues on the other. Last week, the crude oil price fluctuated around the $65 mark, and OPEC maintained its production increase. US propane inventories continue to accumulate, and the inventory is at a historical high, waiting for an inventory inflection point [9]. - Market analysis: Since August, LPG prices have accelerated their decline, then rebounded and rose, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. In September, prices first rose and then fell rapidly. In October, prices were first weak and then strong, gradually rebounding and rising, followed by slight fluctuations, showing an oversold rebound market with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of LPG options is around 0.80, indicating that LPG has been in a weak market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of LPG is 4500, and the support level is 4000 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - neutral call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta neutral. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [9]. 3.5.3 Alcohol Options - Methanol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of methanol is 150.65 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.57 million tons, remaining in a high - level shock state and difficult to effectively destock. The enterprise inventory is 37.61 million tons, with a month - on - month increase of 1.57 million tons, and the year - on - year level is low. The enterprise's pending orders are 21.56 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons [9]. - Market analysis: In July, methanol prices rose and then fell, continuously declining and weakening, followed by significant fluctuations. Since August, prices have gradually weakened and trended downward. In September, prices consolidated at a low level and then rebounded. Since October, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [9]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average level. The open interest PCR of methanol options is below 0.80, indicating that methanol has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of methanol is 2300, and the support level is 2200 [9]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option. When the market rebounds to the high strike price, close the position in combination with spot sales [9]. 3.5.4 Alcohol Options - Ethylene Glycol - Fundamental analysis: The port inventory of ethylene glycol is 52.3 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of 5.6 million tons; the downstream factory inventory days are 13.4 days, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.1 days. In the short term, the arrival volume was high last week, and the departure volume was moderately low. The port inventory is expected to accumulate. The domestic production load is at a high level, and the overseas arrival volume is increasing, so ethylene glycol has entered an inventory accumulation period [10]. - Market analysis: In July, ethylene glycol prices were in a low - level weak consolidation and gradually rose, then fell rapidly. In August, prices continued to show slight weak consolidation. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish, showing a weak market trend with resistance above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates around the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that the bearish force of ethylene glycol has been relatively strong recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of ethylene glycol is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy of put options to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy to obtain time value returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.5 Polyolefin Options - Polypropylene - Fundamental analysis: The inventory of PE production enterprises is 51.46 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 2.81%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 2.02%; the inventory of PE traders is 5.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 0.70%. The inventory of PP production enterprises is 63.85 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 5.92%, and a year - on - year inventory increase of 12.69%; the inventory of PP traders is 22.00 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 7.80%; the port inventory of PP is 6.68 million tons, with a month - on - month destocking of - 1.62%. The overall inventory pressure of PP is higher than that of PE [10]. - Market analysis: Since July, the decline of polypropylene prices has narrowed, gradually stabilized, and slightly fluctuated upwards, then fell rapidly. In August, prices maintained slight weak fluctuations. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices fell rapidly and then fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak market trend with bearish pressure above [10]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has declined to near the average level. The open interest PCR of options is around 0.70, indicating that polypropylene has been weak recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of polypropylene is 7000, and the support level is 6300 [10]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [10]. 3.5.6 Rubber Options - Rubber - Fundamental analysis: The social inventory of natural rubber in China is 103.89 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1.1 million tons, a decline of 1%. The total inventory of natural rubber in bonded and general trade in Qingdao is 43.22 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.53 million tons, a decline of 1.2%. The bonded area inventory is 6.87 million tons, a decline of 1.29%; the general trade inventory is 36.35 million tons, a decline of 1.18% [11]. - Market analysis: Since July, rubber prices have continued to rise in the short term and then reached a peak and fell back. In August, prices gradually recovered and rose, then fluctuated in a range. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices continued to be weak and fluctuated at a low level, showing a weak consolidation market trend with support below and resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of rubber options has rapidly increased and then declined to near the lower - than - average level. The open interest PCR of rubber options is below 0.60. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of rubber has significantly moved down to 17000, and the support level is 14000 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.7 Polyester Options - PTA - Fundamental analysis: The operating load of PTA is 78%, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. In terms of equipment, Yisheng Dalian and Weilian Chemical slightly reduced their loads, Zhongtai is restarting, and the new plant of Shanshan Energy has been put into production. The expected maintenance volume of PTA in November will increase significantly, and the overall load is under great pressure under low processing fees [11]. - Market analysis: In August, PTA prices fell back, then slightly consolidated, and then rebounded rapidly, but the upward movement was blocked and then declined. Since September, the market has continued to be weak and bearish. In October, prices first fell and then rose, followed by slight fluctuations, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above [11]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level compared to the average. The open interest PCR of PTA options is around 0.70, indicating that PTA has been in a fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of PTA is 4600, and the support level is 4300 [11]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - bearish call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value, and dynamically adjust the position to keep the position delta bearish. Spot hedging strategy: None [11]. 3.5.8 Energy and Chemical Options - Caustic Soda - Fundamental analysis: The average utilization rate of the production capacity of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above is 84.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.5%. By region, the production loads in the northwest, north, east, northeast, and south have all increased [12]. - Market analysis: In July, caustic soda prices first rose and then fell. In August, prices fell rapidly and then gradually rebounded, showing short - term bullish upward movement and then high - level fluctuations. Since September, prices have continuously closed with negative candles and gradually weakened. In October, prices fell rapidly, showing a weak and bearish market trend with resistance above recently [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR of caustic soda options is below 0.8, indicating that caustic soda has been in a weak and fluctuating market recently. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of caustic soda is 2600, and the support level is 2240 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.9 Energy and Chemical Options - Soda Ash - Fundamental analysis: As of October 31, 2025, the in - plant inventory of soda ash is 170.2 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.01 million tons; the inventory available days are 14.11 days, remaining unchanged month - on - month. The in - plant inventory of heavy soda ash is 88.64 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 4.81 yuan/ton; the in - plant inventory of light soda ash is 81.56 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 4.80 yuan/ton [12]. - Market analysis: Since August, soda ash prices have continued to show weak consolidation. In September, prices fluctuated slightly at a low level and were weak. In October, the market continued to be weak, recently showing a low - level weak fluctuating market trend with support below [12]. - Option factor research: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR of soda ash options is below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. From the perspective of options, the pressure level of soda ash is 1300, and the support level is 1100 [12]. - Option strategy recommendations: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy to obtain directional returns. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy to obtain volatility returns. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [12]. 3.5.10 Energy and Chemical Options - Urea - Fundamental analysis: The enterprise inventory of urea is 155.43 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 7.59 million tons. Some reserve demands have followed up, and the enterprise inventory has decreased from a high level. The port inventory is 11 million tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 10 million tons, and ports in many places have loaded and cleared the inventory [13]. - Market analysis: In July, urea prices fluctuated widely in a large range under the bearish pressure line and then rose rapidly. In August, prices continued to fluctuate widely

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy and chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties. Each option variety's strategy report includes underlying market analysis, option factor research, and option strategy suggestions [9]. - The overall strategy is to construct option portfolio strategies mainly based on sellers, as well as spot hedging or covered strategies to enhance returns [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - **Data of Various Options**: The report provides the latest prices, price changes, price change rates, trading volumes, volume changes, open interest, and open interest changes of various energy and chemical option underlying futures contracts, such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, etc. [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - Volume and Open Interest PCR - **Concept Explanation**: The PCR indicator includes volume PCR (put option volume / call option volume) and open interest PCR (put option open interest / call option open interest). Volume PCR is mainly used to describe whether the underlying market has a turning point, while open interest PCR is used to describe the strength of the underlying market [5]. - **Data of Various Options**: The report presents the volume, volume changes, open interest, open interest changes, volume PCR, volume PCR changes, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR changes of various options [5]. 3.3 Option Factors - Pressure and Support Levels - **Determination Method**: The pressure and support levels of the underlying are determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options [6]. - **Data of Various Options**: The report provides the pressure points, pressure point offsets, support points, support point offsets, maximum call option open interest, and maximum put option open interest of various options [6]. 3.4 Option Factors - Implied Volatility - **Calculation Method**: The implied volatility includes at - the - money implied volatility (the arithmetic average of call and put at - the - money option implied volatilities) and weighted implied volatility (using volume - weighted average) [7]. - **Data of Various Options**: The report shows the at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility changes, annual average implied volatility, call option implied volatility, put option implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility of various options [7]. 3.5 Option Strategies and Suggestions for Different Varieties 3.5.1 Energy - related Options - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: OPEC maintains a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase. The US shale oil production has slightly increased, and refinery operations are seasonally declining but approaching a small demand peak. The crack spread of refined oil has declined, and the monthly spread of crude oil is stronger than the single - price performance. The market has shown a weak trend overall since July [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options has declined to near the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 500, and the support level is 400 [8]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [8]. - **LPG**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: In September, the estimated domestic LPG commodity volume decreased. The market has shown a pattern of over - decline and rebound with pressure above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options has significantly declined to below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 3600 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. 3.5.2 Alcohol - related Options - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory has decreased, and enterprise inventory has increased. The market has shown a weak trend with pressure above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuates around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.80, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2300, and the support level is 2250 [10]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventory has increased, and the market has entered a inventory - building cycle. The market has shown a weak trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuates below the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.60, indicating strong short - side power. The pressure level is 4500, and the support level is 4050 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy using put options. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.3 Polyolefin - related Options - **Polypropylene**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: PP production enterprise inventory has decreased, and the market has shown a weak trend with downward pressure [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of polypropylene options has declined to near the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level is 7300, and the support level is 6300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: None. Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. 3.5.4 Rubber - related Options - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The social inventory of natural rubber in China has decreased. The market has shown a weak and volatile pattern with support below and pressure above [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options has risen sharply and then declined to near the average. The open interest PCR is around 0.60. The pressure level has dropped significantly to 17000, and the support level is 14000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy. Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.5 Polyester - related Options - **PTA**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The overall social inventory of PTA has increased slightly, and the market has shown a weak and short - biased trend with pressure above [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is around 0.70, indicating a volatile market. The pressure level is 4600, and the support level is 4300 [12]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy. Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. 3.5.6 Alkali - related Options - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The average utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity has decreased. The market has shown a weak and short - biased trend recently [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuates at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR is around 0.90, indicating a weak and volatile market. The pressure level is 2720, and the support level is 2280 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy. Volatility strategy: None. Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The in - plant inventory of soda ash has increased. The market has shown a low - level and weak - volatile pattern with support below [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuates at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1400, and the support level is 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: None. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy. Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. 3.5.7 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: The enterprise inventory of urea has increased, and the market has shown a low - level and weak - volatile pattern [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuates slightly around the historical average. The open interest PCR is below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level is 1800, and the support level is 1600 [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestions**: Directional strategy: Construct a bear spread strategy using put options. Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased short call + put option combination strategy. Spot hedging strategy: Hold a long spot position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Group 1: General Information - The report is an Energy Chemical Options Strategy Morning Report dated October 20, 2025 [2] - It covers energy, polyolefin, polyester, alkali chemical, and other energy chemical options [3] - The recommended strategy is to construct an option combination strategy mainly for sellers and a spot hedging or covered strategy to enhance returns [3] Group 2: Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report provides the latest price, change, change rate, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change of various option underlying futures contracts [4] Group 3: Option Factor - Volume and Open Interest PCR - The report presents the volume, volume change, open interest, open interest change, volume PCR, volume PCR change, open interest PCR, and open interest PCR change of various option varieties [5] Group 4: Option Factor - Pressure and Support Levels - The report shows the at-the-money strike price, pressure point, pressure point deviation, support point, support point deviation, maximum call open interest, and maximum put open interest of various option varieties [6] Group 5: Option Factor - Implied Volatility - The report lists the at-the-money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, weighted implied volatility change, annual average implied volatility, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical volatility, and implied - historical volatility difference of various option varieties [7] Group 6: Strategy and Recommendations for Different Options Energy Options (Crude Oil and LPG) - For crude oil, OPEC maintains a 137,000 - barrel - per - day increase. The market has been weak with pressure. Implied volatility is near the mean, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a neutral call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [8] - For LPG, the domestic commodity volume decreased in September. The market has been in a weak rebound with pressure. Implied volatility is below the mean, and the open interest PCR shows a weak market. Similar strategies to crude oil are recommended [10] Alcohol Options (Methanol and Ethylene Glycol) - For methanol, port inventory decreased, and enterprise inventory increased. The market has been weak. Implied volatility is near the mean, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market. Strategies include a bearish call + put option selling combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [10] - For ethylene glycol, port inventory is expected to decrease slightly, and it is in a stock - building cycle. The market has been weak. Implied volatility is below the mean, and the open interest PCR shows strong bearish power. Strategies include a bear spread of put options, a short - volatility strategy, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Polyolefin Options (Polypropylene) - For polypropylene, production enterprise, trader, and port inventories have decreased. The market has been weak. Implied volatility is near the mean, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a long collar strategy for spot hedging [11] Rubber Options - For rubber, the social inventory has decreased. The market has been in a weak consolidation. Implied volatility is near the mean, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak market. Strategies include a bearish call + put option selling combination [12] Polyester Options (PTA) - For PTA, the social inventory has increased slightly, and it is expected to accumulate more. The market has been weak. Implied volatility is above the mean, and the open interest PCR indicates an oscillating market. Strategies include a bearish call + put option selling combination [12] Alkali Chemical Options (Caustic Soda and Soda Ash) - For caustic soda, the capacity utilization rate has decreased. The market has been in a weak bearish trend. Implied volatility is high, and the open interest PCR indicates a weak - oscillating market. Strategies include a bear spread strategy and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] - For soda ash, the factory inventory has increased. The market has been in a low - level weak oscillation. Implied volatility is above the historical level, and the open interest PCR shows strong bearish pressure. Strategies include a short - volatility combination and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [13] Urea Options - For urea, enterprise and port inventories have increased. The market has been in a low - level weak oscillation. Implied volatility is near the historical mean, and the open interest PCR shows strong bearish pressure. Strategies include a bear spread of put options, a bearish call + put option selling combination, and a long collar strategy for spot hedging [14] Group 7: Option Charts - The report includes various charts for different option varieties, such as price trends, trading volume and open interest, open interest - PCR, turnover - PCR, implied volatility, historical volatility cones, and pressure and support levels [15 - 204]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The LPG market shows a divergence between weak propane and strong butane, with the valuation of domestic PG rising. Although the CP price dropped significantly at the beginning of the month, the continuous increase in upstream crude oil production and the oversupply in the market led to a weak performance of chemical products. However, the PG valuation has been repaired this week. Overall, there are few short - term positive factors for PG, and its price is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. Attention should be paid to the flow of warehouse receipts on the disk, as well as macro and geopolitical risks [4][5] 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Energy and Chemical Product Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various energy and chemical products, including exchange rates, precious metals, crude oil, and chemical products. For example, the current price of LPG is 4,220 yuan/ton, with a daily decline of 1.12%, a weekly increase of 3.69%, a monthly decline of 0.59%, and an annual decline of 9.48% [3] 3.2 LPG Market Analysis - **Supply**: It is bearish. Last week, the total commercial volume of LPG was about 550,100 tons (a 1.27% increase). The commercial volume of domestic gas was 221,700 tons (a 1.79% increase), industrial gas was 211,700 tons (a 0.14% decrease), and ether - after C4 was 180,400 tons (a 0.73% increase). The arrival volume of LPG last week was 560,000 tons (no change). Some manufacturers in South China and North China increased the commercial volume [4] - **Demand**: It is neutral. In October, the combustion demand for LPG is in the off - season. In the deep - processing of C4, the demand for n - butane is insufficient, and the device profit loss intensifies. In the deep - processing of C3, the demand for alkanes is weak, and the operating rate has decreased [4] - **Inventory**: It is bullish. Last week, the factory inventory of LPG was 184,100 tons (a 3.56% decrease), and the port inventory was 3.1804 million tons (a 3.01% decrease). The domestic LPG market storage capacity utilization rate decreased this week, with a slight increase in inventory in Shandong and Central China, and a relatively smooth inventory reduction in East and South China [4] - **Basis and Position**: It is neutral. The weekly average basis in East China is 200.40 yuan/ton, in South China is 345.00 yuan/ton, and in Shandong is 173.00 yuan/ton. The total number of LPG warehouse receipts is 2,300 lots, a decrease of 12,227 lots [4] - **Chemical Downstream**: It is bearish. The operating rates of PDH, MTBE, and alkylation are 68.76%, 54.89%, and 45.27% respectively. The profits of PDH to propylene, MTBE isomerization, and alkylation in Shandong are - 433 yuan/ton, - 187 yuan/ton, and - 86 yuan/ton respectively [4] - **Valuation**: It is bullish. The PG - SC ratio is 1.33 (a 10.71% increase), and the PG main - secondary monthly spread is 137 yuan/ton (a 75.64% increase) [4] 3.3 Market Trend Review - The main contract of LPG futures fluctuated upwards, with a fluctuation range of 4,040 - 4,270 yuan/ton. Affected by the bearish pressure of crude oil, the international LPG market also dropped significantly. After the National Day holiday, the disk gap - opened lower and then oscillated at a low level. Due to the increase in domestic supply and weak fundamentals, both spot and futures prices declined, but the futures rebounded in the second half of the week, and the basis weakened [7] 3.4 LPG Futures Price and Spread Overview - The report provides the current values, week - on - week and month - on - month changes, and scores of LPG futures prices, monthly spreads, and cross - month spreads. For example, the current value of PG01 is 3,935 yuan, with a week - on - week decrease of 3.98% and a month - on - month decrease of 7.04% [11] 3.5 Refinery Device Maintenance Plan - The report lists the maintenance plans of Chinese main refineries, local refineries, LPG factories, and PDH devices, including the refinery name, location, processing capacity, maintenance device, maintenance capacity, start time, and end time [13][14] 3.6 Price and Spread Charts - The report includes various price and spread charts, such as CP propane and butane prices, FEI propane and butane prices, MB propane and butane prices, propane - butane spreads, and ratios between propane/butane and WTI/Brent [15][23][27] 3.7 Inventory and Production Data - The report presents data on LPG imports, exports, port inventories, refinery inventories, production, and self - use, as well as charts showing the trends of these data [146][152][168] 3.8 Deep - Processing Profit Data - The report provides data on the deep - processing profits of alkanes and olefins, including PDH to propylene/PP/PP powder profits, MTBE profits, and alkylation oil profits, as well as the operating rates of relevant devices [191][204][210] 3.9 Research Center Introduction - The Energy and Chemical Research Center of Guomao Futures has a team of 6 members with professional backgrounds in finance, statistics, and chemical engineering. The team members have rich experience in industry fundamentals and spot - futures research in the energy and chemical sector, and have won many awards [217]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The LPG market is oscillating weakly, and the low valuation is expected to be repaired [4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Overview - On October 11, 2025, the average price of the domestic LPG market dropped by 7 yuan/ton to 4451 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.16%. The closing price of the futures main contract rose by 120 yuan/ton to 4268 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.89% [4] International Market - Affected by tariff policies, the international market prices fluctuated widely this week, with the average price finally falling. Due to the tight supply and demand of butane, the price trend of butane is stronger than that of propane. Market concerns have resurfaced, and Chinese importers have generally turned to purchasing US resources, resulting in high discounts for non-US resources to China. As the external market prices have fallen to relatively low levels, it has attracted buyers, and the strong demand from Sinopec has promoted the recovery of market buying interest and price stabilization and rebound [4] East China Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The civil gas market in East China showed a trend of rising first and then falling this week, with the overall atmosphere being average. Affected by the increase in supply from Shandong and warehouse receipts, the prices continued to decline. The price of imported gas was high in the early stage, but it showed signs of loosening in the later stage [4] South China Region - The average price of the civil gas market decreased by 20 yuan/ton to 4570 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day, a decrease of -0.44%. The price center of the civil gas market in South China continued to decline this week, with the final average price slightly falling. Affected by the decline of international oil prices and the external LPG market, the bearish sentiment in the market has increased. Although importers are willing to support prices, the downstream demand remains weak. In terms of industrial gas, prices in different regions have adjusted up and down, and the regional price difference has narrowed, with production and sales basically balanced [4] Shandong Region - The average price of the civil gas market remained stable at 4450 yuan/ton. The average price of etherified C4 decreased by 28 yuan/ton to 4370 yuan/ton, a decrease of -0.64%. The civil gas market in Shandong first stabilized and then declined this week, with the price center significantly shifting downward. Due to the unexpected increase in the release of refineries in the province, the market supply exceeded demand, and the market price dropped to a new low for the year [4]

Core Viewpoint - In September, the domestic liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) market experienced a dual weakness in supply and demand, with refinery inventory decreasing while port inventory increased, indicating a lack of strong expectations for market improvement in the near future [1][2][3]. Group 1: Inventory Analysis - As of September 30, the LPG refinery inventory rate was 27.91%, down 1.52 percentage points from the previous month [2]. - The estimated domestic LPG commodity volume for September was 1.6221 million tons, a decrease of 5.65% month-on-month, with an average daily commodity volume of 54,070 tons, down 0.14% [2]. - The average port inventory rate for domestic main ports was 52.36%, an increase of 1.69 percentage points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - Domestic PDH (propane dehydrogenation) plant operating rates showed a decline followed by a slight recovery, with a weekly operating rate of 72.03% as of September 25, down 0.55 percentage points from the end of the previous month [3]. - Despite a traditional peak season for propane consumption, terminal demand growth was below expectations due to ongoing policy impacts [3]. Group 3: Price Trends - The LPG market in September showed a divergence in price trends, with residential gas prices initially rising but later declining due to increased port resources and weak terminal demand [6]. - The ether C4 market remained weak, influenced by poor downstream demand and rising upstream inventory pressures, leading to accelerated price declines [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The LPG market is expected to exhibit weak and fluctuating trends in October, with passive consumption of refinery and port inventories [7]. - Residential gas prices are anticipated to be weak due to abundant domestic supply and declining import costs, despite a potential increase in burning demand as temperatures drop [7].