能源化工期权 2026-01-09 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

能源化工期权 2026-01-07 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

从11月开始，中东地区供应紧张的消息一直在市场萦绕，同时美国大雾天气影响装船也对供应面形成明 显制约。叠加北半球冬季影响，欧洲以及美国本地的需求增加，加之欧洲受地缘政治影响，对美国的依 赖增加，导致美国货流向欧洲的数量增加，这也进一步剧了资源竞争对亚洲地区液化气的影响。另一方 面，印度以及东南亚地区也处于消耗旺季，中国地区的PDH开工负荷居高不下，市场供需趋紧情况愈加 明显，同时，12月后中东货源长约基本签订完毕，整体出货压力不大，因此在定价方面亦相对偏强，这 也是导致CP高开的原因之一。综合影响下，国际现货价格在10月下旬后呈现坚挺走高趋势。 后市展望：2月CP预期下调 【热点解读·LPG】1月CP公布 涨幅超期 [导语] 沙特阿美公司1月CP公布，丙、丁烷均较12月上调。丙烷为525美元/吨，较上月涨30美元/吨，丁 烷为520美元/吨，较上月涨35美元/吨。丙烷折合到岸成本预估在4700元/吨左右，丁烷折合到岸成本预 估在4662元/吨左右。 沙特阿美公司1月CP公布，丙、丁烷均较12月上调。丙烷为525美元/吨，较上月涨30美元/吨，丁烷为 520美元/吨，较上月涨35美元/吨。丙烷折合到岸成本预估在 ...

能源化工期权 2025-12-30 能源化工期权策略早报 | 李立勤 | 高级投研经 | 从业资格号：F3074095 | 交易咨询号：Z0017896 | 邮箱：lilq@wkqh.cn | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 理 | | | | | 黄柯涵 | 期权研究员 | 从业资格号：F03138607 | 电话：0755-23375252 | 邮箱：huangkh@wkqh.cn | | 李仁君 | 产业服务 | 从业资格号：F03090207 | 交易咨询号：Z0016947 | 邮箱：lirj@wkqh.cn | 能源化工期权策略早报概要：能源类：原油、LPG；聚烯烃类期权：聚丙烯、聚氯乙烯、塑料、苯乙烯；聚酯类期 权：对二甲苯、PTA、短纤、瓶片；碱化工类：烧碱、纯碱；其他能源化工类：橡胶等。 策略上：构建卖方为主的期权组合策略以及现货套保或备兑策略增强收益。 表1：标的期货市场概况 | 期权品种 | 标的合约 | 最新价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量 | 量变化 | 持仓量 | 仓变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint - The energy - chemical sector is divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others. Options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties in each sector, including analysis of underlying asset market conditions, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [9]. 3. Summary by Category 3.1 Futures Market Overview - Various energy - chemical futures contracts are presented, including details such as the latest price, price change, percentage change, trading volume, volume change, open interest, and open interest change. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2602) is 445, with a price increase of 2 and a percentage increase of 0.38%. Its trading volume is 4.59 million lots, a decrease of 1.99 million lots, and the open interest is 3.48 million lots, a decrease of 0.19 million lots [4]. 3.2 Option Factors - **Volume - Open Interest PCR**: This factor is used to describe the strength of the option underlying asset market and the turning point of the underlying asset market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil is 0.73, with a change of 0.10, and the open interest PCR is 0.77, with a change of - 0.01 [5]. - **Pressure and Support Levels**: Determined from the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540, and the support level is 400 [6]. - **Implied Volatility**: Includes at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and its change, annual average, call implied volatility, put implied volatility, historical 20 - day volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatility. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.115%, the weighted implied volatility is 27.68%, with a change of 0.37% [7]. 3.3 Option Strategies and Suggestions - **Crude Oil**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The total US crude oil inventory decreased by 1.025 million barrels (- 0.12%) to 837 million barrels, while the strategic crude oil inventory increased by 249,000 barrels (+ 0.06%) to 412 million barrels. The market showed a weak trend overall [8]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of crude oil options fluctuated below the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540, and the support level was 430 [8]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy to obtain option time value and directional returns, and adjust the position dynamically to keep the delta of the position short; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy, holding a spot long position + buying a put option + selling an out - of - the - money call option [8]. - **Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The total LPG supply decreased by 52,000 tons to 1.1946 million tons last week. The demand side saw an increase in the operating rate to 75%. The market showed a bearish trend with resistance above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of LPG options fluctuated around the average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 4300, and the support level was 4000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy to obtain directional returns; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Methanol**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The MTO operating rate decreased by 0.71 percentage points to 89.49%. The market showed a weak trend with resistance above [10]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of methanol options fluctuated around the historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300, and the support level was 2000 [10]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The inventory in the East China main port increased by 25,000 tons to 844,000 tons, indicating a continuous oversupply situation. The market showed a weak bearish trend [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of ethylene glycol options fluctuated above the average level, with an increasing volatility. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish power. The pressure level was 3800, and the support level was 3600 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish put spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The factory inventory of PVC was 344,000 tons (+18,000 tons), and the social inventory was 517,000 tons (- 12,000 tons). The market showed a weak trend with bearish pressure above [11]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PVC options decreased to a level below the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weakening trend. The pressure level was 5000, and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: None; Spot long - hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [11]. - **Rubber**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: As of December 14, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao was 498,900 tons, an increase of 10,200 tons. The market showed a weak consolidation trend [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of rubber options gradually returned to a level around the average. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak overall market. The pressure level dropped significantly to 17,000, and the support level was 14,000 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Purified Terephthalic Acid (PTA)**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The PX plant operating rate remained high, and the new production capacity was expected to be put into operation. The PTA plant inventory continued to accumulate. The market showed a short - term strong trend after a rebound from oversold conditions [12]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of PTA options fluctuated at a relatively low average level. The open interest PCR was above 1.00, indicating a strong PTA market recently. The pressure level was 4750, and the support level was 4400 [12]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bullish call spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a long - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: None [12]. - **Caustic Soda**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The average capacity utilization rate of caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.7%, a decrease of 1.5% week - on - week. The market showed a weak bearish trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of caustic soda options fluctuated at a relatively high level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market recently. The pressure level was 2320, and the support level was 2000 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy; Volatility strategy: None; Spot collar hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy a put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [13]. - **Soda Ash**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The production cost of the ammonia - soda process decreased, and the production cost of the combined - soda process in East China also decreased. The market showed a low - level weak consolidation trend [13]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of soda ash options fluctuated at a relatively high historical level. The open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1300, and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: Construct a bearish spread strategy; Volatility strategy: Construct a short - volatility combination strategy; Spot long - hedging strategy: Construct a long collar strategy [13]. - **Urea**: - **Underlying Asset Market Analysis**: The supply - demand difference increased by 14.16% week - on - week, and the enterprise inventory decreased by 54,500 tons. The market showed a short - term weak trend with resistance above [14]. - **Option Factor Research**: The implied volatility of urea options fluctuated at a relatively low historical average level. The open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong bearish pressure. The pressure level was 1700, and the support level was 1640 [14]. - **Option Strategy Recommendations**: Directional strategy: None; Volatility strategy: Construct a neutral - biased call + put option combination strategy; Spot hedging strategy: Hold a spot long position + buy an at - the - money put option + sell an out - of - the - money call option [14].

Group 1: Report Summary - The report focuses on energy and chemical options, covering various sectors such as energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [10]. - It provides option strategies and suggestions for selected varieties in each sector, including fundamental analysis, market trends, option factor research, and option strategy recommendations [10]. Group 2: Market Overview - **Futures Market**: The report presents the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interest of various energy and chemical futures contracts, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), methanol, ethylene glycol, etc. [5]. - **Option Factors**: It includes data on option volume - PCR, open interest - PCR, pressure and support levels, implied volatility, and historical volatility for different option varieties [6][7][8]. Group 3: Option Strategies Energy Options - **Crude Oil**: Fundamental analysis shows stable US refinery demand and unchanged shale oil production. The market has a weak trend. Option strategies include bear - spread combinations, selling call + put option combinations, and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [9]. - **LPG**: With an increase in warehouse receipts and mixed supply - demand conditions, the market is weak. Strategies involve bear - spread combinations, selling call + put option combinations, and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [11]. Alcohol Options - **Methanol**: Inventory is decreasing, and the market is weak. Strategies include bear - spread combinations, selling call + put option combinations, and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [11]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Polyester load is decreasing, and inventory is increasing. The market is weak. Strategies involve bear - spread combinations, short - volatility strategies, and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [12]. Polyolefin Options - **PVC**: Inventory is increasing, and the market is weak. Strategies include bear - spread combinations and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [12]. Rubber Options - **Rubber**: Tire factory开工率 has mixed trends, and inventory has changed. The market is in a weak consolidation. Strategies involve selling neutral call + put option combinations [13]. Polyester Options - **PTA**: Production load is stable but low. The market has a weak rebound and then a decline. Strategies involve selling neutral call + put option combinations [13]. Alkali Options - **Caustic Soda**: Capacity utilization is increasing, and the market is weak. Strategies include bear - spread combinations and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [14]. - **Soda Ash**: Inventory is decreasing, and the market is in a low - level weak oscillation. Strategies include bear - spread combinations, short - volatility strategies, and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [14]. Other Options - **Urea**: Enterprise inventory is decreasing, and port inventory is increasing. The market is short - term weak. Strategies involve selling neutral call + put option combinations and long - collar strategies for spot hedging [15]. Group 4: Charts - The report includes price charts, trading volume and open - interest charts, option volume - PCR and open interest - PCR charts, implied volatility charts, and historical volatility cone charts for various energy and chemical options, such as crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. [17][34][55]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the document. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The energy - chemical sector is mainly divided into energy, alcohols, polyolefins, rubber, polyesters, alkalis, and others [9]. - For each sector, options strategies and suggestions are provided for selected varieties [9]. - An options strategy report is prepared for each options variety based on underlying market analysis, options factor research, and options strategy suggestions [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Underlying Futures Market Overview - The report presents data on the latest prices, price changes, trading volumes, and open interests of various energy - chemical futures, including crude oil, LPG, methanol, etc. For example, the latest price of crude oil (SC2601) is 448, with a decrease of 8 and a decline rate of - 1.84%, and a trading volume of 6.76 million lots [4]. 3.2 Options Factors 3.2.1 Volume - Open Interest PCR - The volume - open interest PCR data of different options varieties are provided, which can be used to describe the strength of the underlying market and the turning point of the market. For instance, the volume PCR of crude oil options is 0.67 with a change of - 0.02, and the open interest PCR is 0.68 with a change of 0.06 [5]. 3.2.2 Pressure and Support Levels - The report shows the pressure and support levels of each option variety from the perspective of the strike prices with the largest open interest of call and put options. For example, the pressure level of crude oil is 540 and the support level is 440 [6]. 3.2.3 Implied Volatility - Implied volatility data of various option varieties are given, including at - the - money implied volatility, weighted implied volatility, and the difference between implied and historical volatilities. For example, the at - the - money implied volatility of crude oil is 24.685%, and the weighted implied volatility is 26.17% with a change of - 0.99% [7]. 3.3 Options Strategies and Suggestions for Each Variety 3.3.1 Energy - Related Options (Crude Oil, LPG) - **Crude Oil** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: US crude oil production slightly increased, refinery processing volume rose, and global floating storage increased. The market showed a weak trend [8]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.70, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 540 and the support level was 430 [8]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [8]. - **LPG** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Crude oil prices fluctuated around $63. The domestic LPG market was relatively strong due to low arrivals and strong chemical demand. The market was in a range - bound state with support below and pressure above [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.80, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level was 4500 and the support level was 4150 [10]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. 3.3.2 Alcohol - Related Options (Methanol, Ethylene Glycol) - **Methanol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Enterprise inventories declined. The market showed a weak trend with pressure above after a rebound [10]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was around the historical average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2300 and the support level was 2000 [10]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - biased call + put option combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [10]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Port inventories increased, downstream demand was limited, and the market showed a weak downward trend [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was above the average and rising, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side forces. The pressure level was 3900 and the support level was 3850 [11]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy, a short - volatility strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. 3.3.3 Olefin - Related Options (PVC, Polypropylene, etc.) - **PVC** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Inventories were in a build - up cycle, and the market showed a weak downward trend with bearish sentiment [11]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility decreased to below the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a continuous weakening market. The pressure level was 4600 and the support level was 4300 [11]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread put option strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [11]. - **Polypropylene** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a certain level, and relevant PCR data were provided [5][106]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.4 Rubber - Related Options (Rubber, Synthetic Rubber) - **Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Tire production capacity utilization rates changed, and the market showed a weak consolidation trend [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility gradually returned to around the average, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level dropped to 16000 and the support level was 15000 [12]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility and relevant PCR data were provided [5]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.5 Polyester - Related Options (PTA, Short - Fiber, etc.) - **PTA** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Factory inventories were expected to accumulate, and the market showed a rebound and then a small - range fluctuation trend with pressure above [12]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively low average level, the open interest PCR was around 0.80, indicating a range - bound market. The pressure level was 4800 and the support level was 4500 [12]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy [12]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: No detailed description in the given text. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility and relevant PCR data were provided [5]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: No detailed description in the given text. 3.3.6 Alkali - Related Options (Caustic Soda, Soda Ash) - **Caustic Soda** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production capacity utilization increased, and the market showed a weak downward trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a high level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating a weak market. The pressure level was 2240 and the support level was 2120 [13]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. - **Soda Ash** - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Production increased, inventories were at a high level, and the market showed a weak downward oscillation trend [13]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively high historical level, the open interest PCR was below 0.50, indicating a bearish market. The pressure level was 1860 and the support level was 1100 [13]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a bear - spread combination strategy, a short - volatility combination strategy, and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [13]. 3.3.7 Urea Options - **Underlying Market Analysis**: Supply pressure was alleviated to some extent, and the market showed a low - level oscillation and then a rebound trend [14]. - **Options Factor Research**: Implied volatility was at a relatively low historical average level, the open interest PCR was below 0.60, indicating strong short - side pressure. The pressure level was 1800 and the support level was 1660 [14]. - **Options Strategy Suggestions**: Construct a neutral - biased short call + put option combination strategy and a long - collar strategy for spot hedging [14].

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 卓创资讯分析师 郭卫玲 【导语】11月国内液化气产销节奏良好，炼厂库容率环比有所下降，但码头到港量环比增加，导致进口 气港口库存率有所上升。12月来看，民用气在成本支撑与弱需求博弈下，上游控库为先，价格或横盘整 理；醚后碳四则先受基本面疲弱压制，后随假期需求释放而有望企稳反弹。 国产气商品量减少 炼厂库存震荡下降 11月国内液化气炼厂库容率震荡收低。截至11月30日统计数据显示，LPG炼厂月末库容率为28.75%，较 上月末相比，下降1.12个百分点。 企业停车降幅现象较多，商品量显著下降。11月国内液化气商品量预估值为159.58万吨，环比下降 5.75%；日均商品量为53194吨，环比减少2.27%。商品量下降的主要影响因素为：华东中化泉州装置提 前检修、镇海乙烯本月后期开工液化气外销量减少，沿江地区保持偏低负荷运行，东北辽阳及吉林石化 减产，华南广石化进入检修期且广西石化下游装置开工后液化气外销量减少，西部宁夏地区部分炼厂检 修及资源自用，共同导致国内液化气商品量下降。当然，山东华星石化复工，华东江苏新海检修恢复， 抵消部分供应减量。 需 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The domestic market has a relatively high valuation. Although the domestic chemical industry has poor profits, its operation remains stable, and there is an expectation of a slight increase in civil demand. Therefore, there is still short - term support for the driving force. Attention should also be paid to winter weather and oil price conditions [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Content 3.1 Daily Changes - On Friday, in the civil gas market, the price in East China was 4411 (+0), in Shandong was 4500 (+20), and in South China was 4470 (-50). The price of ether - post carbon four was 4470 (+10). The lowest delivery location was East China, with a basis of 79 (-22), and the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+0). As of 15:00, FEI was 516 (-1) and CP was 498 (-4) dollars/ton [1] 3.2 Weekly Views - The futures market fluctuated. The basis was 143 (+232), the 01 - 02 month difference was 79 (+3), and the 03 - 04 month difference was -211 (-19). The number of warehouse receipts was 4611 lots (-200). The price of civil gas increased, and the cheapest deliverable product was East China civil gas at 4411 (+88). The external market FEI declined, while CP and MB increased, and the oil - gas ratio decreased. Both domestic and international markets weakened. The PG - CP spread reached 100 (-21); the PG - FEI spread reached 79 (-7). The US - Asia arbitrage window opened [1] - The arrival premium of propane in East China was 97 (-2), and the FOB premiums of propane in AFEI, the Middle East, and the United States were 30 (+18.75), 25 (-13), and 43 dollars (+4) respectively. Freight rates declined. The spot profit of PDH weakened, and the futures profit decreased; the alkylation unit improved; the MTBE profit fluctuated [1] - Port inventories decreased (-7%) due to a significant drop in arrivals (-18%) and a slight increase in demand; refinery inventories increased slightly (+0.86%). The PDH operating rate was 70.22% (+0.4pct), the alkylation operating rate was 37.93% (+1pct), and the MTBE operating rate was 71.58% (+0) [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report The LPG market is expected to maintain a relatively strong pattern. The price of PG mostly follows the fluctuations of external propane and crude oil. In the short term, the external market is tight, but there is still supply pressure in the medium to long term. The domestic market is relatively stronger than the external market and crude oil, which is related to the low domestic arrivals and strong chemical demand. The near - term trading logic is supported by supply contraction and stable chemical demand, but the overall valuation is high. The long - term trading outlook is affected by supply and demand factors in different regions [2][3][6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - Cost - end crude oil is affected by supply surplus pressure and geopolitical issues, showing an overall oscillatory upward trend this week [2]. - The CP prices in December are in line with expectations, with propane at $495/ton (+20) and butane at $485/ton (+25) [2]. - US propane demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, better than the same period last year, but the inventory reduction is not large [2]. - The domestic fundamentals are relatively stable, with low arrivals this week, matching the shipments from the Middle East and the US to China. Chemical demand remains strong in the short term, and the PDH operating rate is expected to be maintained at 70% - 75% [2]. - There are many purchase requests in the external market recently, with the FEI premium strengthening to $30 and the CP premium slightly dropping to $25 [2]. 1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Market Positioning**: The market is expected to oscillate, with the PG01 price range at 4000 - 4500 [11]. - **Basis Strategy**: The basis is expected to oscillate. This week, the futures price declined with the overall chemical market, while the spot price rose slightly, leading to a stronger basis [11]. - **Calendar Spread Strategy**: Sell the spread when the spread is high [11]. - **Hedging Arbitrage Strategy**: Narrow the internal - external price spread, and wait and see on widening the PP/PG price ratio [11]. 1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **LPG Price Range Forecast**: The monthly price range of LPG is predicted to be 4000 - 4500, with the current 20 - day rolling volatility at 19.57% and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past 3 years at 24.83% [13]. - **LPG Hedging Strategy**: For inventory management, when the inventory is high, short PG futures and sell call options. For procurement management, when the inventory is low, buy PG futures and sell put options [13]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The fundamentals remain relatively strong, with continuous low arrivals and inventory reduction at ports. The external market is tight, and the FEI premium has risen to $30 [18]. - **Negative Information**: From the perspectives of internal - external price spread and PG/PP price ratio, the overall valuation is still not cheap [15]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Monitor - The Politburo meeting and the Central Economic Work Conference will be held [16]. Chapter 3: Market Interpretation 3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market** - **Unilateral Trend and Capital Movement**: The PG01 contract oscillated upward this week. The net positions of major profitable seats increased slightly, and there were no obvious changes in the top 5 long and short positions in the order book. The net short positions of a certain seat decreased slightly, while the net long positions of foreign capital increased slightly and those of retail investors decreased slightly. Technically, the PG01 is in an oscillatory state, with resistance at 4400 - 4500 and support at around 4250 on the daily - line middle track [19]. - **Basis and Calendar Spread Structure**: The LPG term structure remains in a BACK structure, with the 1 - 2 calendar spread at 79 yuan/ton (+3) [22]. - **External Market** - **Unilateral Trend**: FEI M1 closed at $524/ton (-13), with a premium of +30 dollars/ton; CP M1 closed at $504/ton (+3), with a premium of +25 dollars/ton; MB M1 closed at $375/ton (+19). The FEI swap declined slightly this week, but the premium strengthened, and the spot price remained stable. The MB price rose after the demand increased [26]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The FEI M1 - M2 spread was 13 dollars/ton (-6.75); the CP M1 - M2 spread was 0.5 dollars/ton (-0.5); the MB M1 - M2 spread was 6.19 dollars/ton (+2.93) [32]. - **Regional Spread Tracking**: This week, FEI was in an oscillatory state, while MB and CP were relatively strong. The FEI - MB and FEI - CP spreads narrowed slightly. In addition, the spread between FEI and MOPJ decreased, improving the economic efficiency of FEI [35]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking - **Upstream Profit**: This week, the gross profit of major refineries was 593 yuan/ton (-28), and that of Shandong local refineries was 232 yuan/ton (+29). The profit fluctuations were not large [38]. - **Downstream Profit**: The PDH profit calculated by FEI was - 350 yuan/ton (+80); the PDH profit calculated by CP was - 505 yuan/ton (+47), and the PDH profit continued to be in a loss state. The MTBE gas - fractionation profit was - 62.50 yuan/ton (-5), and the isomerization profit was - 51 (+25). The alkylation oil profit was - 412 yuan/ton (+12), and the recent profit fluctuations were not large [41]. 4.2 Import - Export Profit Tracking This week, the external market price strengthened, while the domestic imported gas price oscillated relatively, leading to a weaker import profit [44]. Chapter 5: Supply, Demand, and Inventory 5.1 Overseas Supply and Demand - **US Supply and Demand** - **EIA Weekly Supply and Demand**: As the weather gets colder, the weekly demand has improved significantly in the past two weeks, but the production is generally high, and the inventory has decreased slightly [49]. - **KPLER Export Situation**: From January to November, the US exported a total of 62,703 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 3.09%. Among them, the exports to China were 9,693 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 40% [56]. - **Middle East Supply**: From January to November, the Middle East exported a total of 44,850 kt of LPG, a year - on - year increase of 2.88%. Among them, the exports to India were 19,238 kt, a year - on - year decrease of 1.55%, and the exports to China were 16,833 kt, a year - on - year increase of 27%. In November, the domestic demand in the Middle East was strong, and the shipments were generally low [60]. - **India Supply and Demand**: From January to October, India's LPG demand totaled 30,101 kt, a year - on - year increase of 6.26%, and the LPG imports were 21,048 kt, a year - on - year increase of 7.49%. The second half of the year is the seasonal peak season in India, and the demand and imports remain high [63]. - **South Korea Supply and Demand**: The seasonality of South Korea's LPG demand is not obvious. Most of it is used for the chemical industry. From May to September, South Korea's LPG imports remained high. There was some re - export demand in May and June, and the propane cracking profit was better than that of naphtha from July to September, providing support for the cracking end. Currently, the propane cracking profit is still better than that of naphtha, and the imports are expected to remain relatively high. Some cracking maintenance has been extended to December, and the cracking cost - effectiveness of LPG has decreased. In November, South Korea's LPG imports increased slightly compared with October but remained at a relatively low level [70]. - **Japan Supply and Demand**: Japan is highly dependent on imported LPG, and the proportion of combustion demand is large, so the seasonality of demand and imports is obvious. As the weather gets colder, the imports are expected to increase. After restocking in August, the imports decreased in September, and the imports in August and September were neutral overall. The imports increased again in October. Normally, from November to February of the next year, the average monthly import volume is about 1,000 kt [78]. 5.2 Domestic Supply and Demand - **Domestic Supply - Demand Balance**: In the case of high refinery profits, the domestic LPG production is expected to remain high, but the overall external supply volume is not high. The import volume is not high according to the shipping data. Based on profit and seasonality, chemical demand decreases, and combustion demand increases. The overall chemical demand in the fourth quarter is better than expected. The overall inventory has decreased slightly, mainly at the port [82]. - **Domestic Supply**: The operating rate of major refineries is 74.66% (-0.88%); the operating rate of independent refineries is 56.11% (+1.12%), and the utilization rate excluding large - scale refineries is 52.20% (+1.25%). The domestic LPG external sales volume is 51.72 tons (+0.18). The port arrivals this week are 55.8 (-10.2), the factory inventory is 15.74 tons (-0.12), and the port inventory is 274.59 tons (-20.79) [85]. - **Domestic Demand** - **PDH Demand**: Juzhengyuan is restarting. This week, Hebei Xinxinyuan, Ningbo Haode, and Bengu New Materials are still under maintenance. The internal - external price spread has narrowed [95][97]. - **MTBE Demand**: No specific new demand information is provided, but relevant seasonal data on the operating rate and price spread are presented [98]. - **Alkylation Oil Demand**: Puyang Shengyuan has resumed production, and Shandong Linfeng is still under maintenance [103]. - **Combustion Demand**: Seasonal data on the production - sales ratio in different regions are presented [108].