Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market, suggesting that the rental yield ratio at the bottom of the market should be around 5% optimistically and 7% pessimistically, while proposing a more dynamic formula for reasonable housing prices [1] - There is a prevailing sentiment that the era of real estate investment is over, with predictions of continuous price declines due to high inventory and decreasing population [3][4] - The article emphasizes that housing should be viewed more like a consumable good rather than a long-term investment, highlighting issues such as depreciation and liquidity [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current inventory in both primary and secondary markets is substantial, and with a declining population, the demand for housing is expected to remain low [3] - The rental yield ratio is criticized as a misleading metric, as it does not account for the depreciation of property value over time [3] - The article suggests that housing prices are unlikely to rebound significantly due to demographic trends, with a specific example from Shenyang indicating a high ratio of available housing to the population [12][13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The article references specific data from Shenyang, noting a total of 35-40 million housing units available against a population of over 9 million, with a significant portion being elderly [12] - It mentions that the birth rate is low and the death rate is high, further complicating the housing market dynamics [13] - The discussion includes the potential impact of property taxes and maintenance costs on housing demand, suggesting that these factors could further suppress buyer interest [15][16] Group 3: Future Outlook - The sentiment is that the real estate market may experience a prolonged period of decline, similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s [6][16] - There is a call for the real estate industry to focus on quality over quantity, especially during a downturn, to avoid producing subpar housing [17][18] - The article concludes that a true market bottom will only be confirmed after a period of stabilization and potential tax reforms [16]