Core Insights - The China Academy of Sciences (CAS) has accurately predicted housing prices for five consecutive years, showcasing a remarkable data-driven forecasting capability [1][6][9] - In 2024, CAS forecasts a moderate increase of 3.2% in housing prices for first-tier cities, while second and third-tier cities are expected to decline by 1-3% [1][9] - The accuracy of CAS's predictions is attributed to a robust data analysis framework and a unique predictive model that incorporates various macroeconomic indicators [6][9] Yearly Breakdown - **2023**: CAS predicted a national average sales price fluctuation of around 2.4%, which was confirmed by actual market data [3] - **2022**: The prediction of a year-on-year decline in national average sales price was validated, with a decrease of 3.1% [3] - **2021**: CAS accurately forecasted a price increase of 7.8% for first-tier cities and 5.9% for second-tier cities, with an error margin of only 0.2 percentage points [4] - **2020**: Contrary to widespread pessimism due to the COVID-19 pandemic, CAS predicted a moderate increase in national average sales price, which rose by 4.2% by year-end [6] Predictive Model - The predictive model developed by CAS integrates 47 variables and is updated monthly to reflect real-time market dynamics [9] - Key factors considered in the model include population flow, land supply, monetary policy, real estate regulation, and economic growth [7][9] - Recent data, such as a 16.7% year-on-year decline in land transfer revenue in 2024, indicates increased regulatory control by local governments [9] Future Outlook - For 2025, CAS anticipates continued population movement and a concentration of homebuyers aged 25-35, alongside a persistent supply-demand imbalance [10] - The ongoing implementation of stable monetary policies and slight easing of real estate regulations are expected to influence market conditions positively [10] - CAS's consistent performance over the past five years suggests a need for a more data-driven and rational approach to understanding housing price fluctuations [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese real estate market has undergone significant adjustments since 2022, with average national housing prices dropping approximately 30%, and declines in some third and fourth-tier cities exceeding 50% [1] Group 1: Current Market Conditions - The initial price corrections began in second and third-tier cities, with first-tier cities like Shanghai and Shenzhen joining the trend in 2023 [1] - Experts predict that by 2030, housing prices could increase to four to five times their current levels, driven by factors such as excessive money supply, favorable government policies, and anticipated economic growth [1] Group 2: Counterarguments to Price Predictions - The likelihood of housing prices quadrupling or quintupling in the next five years is considered extremely low due to the ongoing long-term downward trend in prices [3] - Achieving a fivefold increase in housing prices by 2030 would require annual doubling, which is deemed nearly impossible [3] - Economic growth and money supply do not guarantee rising housing prices, as the market is currently experiencing significant bubbles and investment risks [3] Group 3: Factors Supporting Price Stabilization - Residents' income levels are insufficient to support high housing prices, with many facing reduced incomes and cautious future income expectations [4] - There is an oversupply of housing in the market, with approximately 6 billion existing homes, enough to accommodate 30 billion people, leading to a long-term supply-demand imbalance [4] - The construction of affordable housing is accelerating, which will further alleviate housing supply pressures and help regulate the market [5] Group 4: Overall Market Outlook - Considering macroeconomic conditions, purchasing power, and housing supply, the potential for significant price increases in the next five years is very low, with a likelihood of continued adjustments towards rationality [6]

听这话，网友们不乐意了，咱们每月收入80%用于还贷，这要是再降25%，这还是资产吗？还能留吗？ 接下来我们就来深入了解高盛预言中国楼市下跌背后的逻辑是什么？现实是不是又要打脸了？ 一、高盛放话国内房价再降25%？ 前段时间，高盛发布的《2025年中国房地产展望：触底在望》在网上疯传，里面有三个预测引起了网友们的广泛关注： 第一个是：他们预测，新房市场价格会在2025年底企稳 第二个预测，从现在到2025年底，价格可能还要调整20%—25%。 第三个预测，一直到2027年，新房市场的销售额保持8万亿左右。 这位国际金融大鳄预测的依据是什么？ 主要来自两个方面： 第一个，他说我们与房子相关的债务已经高达59万亿 第二个，他说截止到2024年底，我们的库存量已经达到93万亿。 超高的债务叠加，超高的库存，所以高盛得出了继续下跌的结论。 不过话又说回来了，这也不是高盛第一次预测国内房价，上一次他预测的可不是这样的，他说一直要到2027年的三季度才能企稳。但是这回，他预测2025 年底会企稳。 这才半年多时间，变卦的速度也太快了点。看来，即使是高盛他自己，估计都忘记了他上次的预测，否则也不可能"前言不搭后语"。 对关于 ...