Core Viewpoints - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market, suggesting that the rental yield ratio at the bottom of the market should be around 5% optimistically and 7% pessimistically, while proposing a more dynamic formula for reasonable housing prices [1] - There is a prevailing sentiment that the era of real estate investment is over, with predictions of continuous price declines due to high inventory and decreasing population [3][4] - The article emphasizes that housing should be viewed more like a consumable good rather than a long-term investment, highlighting issues such as depreciation and liquidity [3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The current inventory in both primary and secondary markets is substantial, and with a declining population, the demand for housing is expected to remain low [3] - The rental yield ratio is criticized as a misleading metric, as it does not account for the depreciation of property value over time [3] - The article suggests that housing prices are unlikely to rebound significantly due to demographic trends, with a specific example from Shenyang indicating a high ratio of available housing to the population [12][13] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The article references specific data from Shenyang, noting a total of 35-40 million housing units available against a population of over 9 million, with a significant portion being elderly [12] - It mentions that the birth rate is low and the death rate is high, further complicating the housing market dynamics [13] - The discussion includes the potential impact of property taxes and maintenance costs on housing demand, suggesting that these factors could further suppress buyer interest [15][16] Group 3: Future Outlook - The sentiment is that the real estate market may experience a prolonged period of decline, similar to Japan's experience in the 1990s [6][16] - There is a call for the real estate industry to focus on quality over quantity, especially during a downturn, to avoid producing subpar housing [17][18] - The article concludes that a true market bottom will only be confirmed after a period of stabilization and potential tax reforms [16]

Group 1 - The article discusses the current state of the real estate market, highlighting that many potential buyers are hesitant and waiting for prices to drop further, despite some properties already seeing price reductions [1][3] - An increase in property viewings by 20% compared to the previous month indicates a growing interest, but actual transactions remain low as buyers are cautious and calculating potential mortgage costs and price drops [3] - Developers are shifting strategies, moving away from heavy discounts to improving property quality, signaling a potential stabilization in local housing prices [3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes that there is no absolute "bottom" for housing prices, suggesting that personal circumstances, such as living comfort and financial pressure, should guide purchasing decisions [4] - For investment purposes, it is crucial to assess the population inflow and the presence of supporting industries in a city, as these factors significantly influence housing price sustainability [4] - The article encourages discussions among readers about their experiences with property price fluctuations and the market dynamics [4]