如何看待后续地产政策与产业链的投资机会？20251120 摘要 房价下行周期分为小型、中型和大型泡沫，分别对应不同的跌幅和持续 时间。租售比和房价收入比等估值指标对判断房价拐点有参考意义，但 通常滞后于房价实际拐点。 核心城市房价承压主要源于收入或通胀预期不乐观以及租售比和利率倒 挂。通过贴息或抵税等方式降低购房成本，全局性、普遍性的补助能更 有效地提振市场信心和需求。 贷款贴息政策对房地产市场影响显著，覆盖范围和持续时间是关键。若 仅覆盖新房，财政代价较小，但若包括存量贷款或二手房，财政负担将 大幅增加。 收入预期比利率本身更重要。改善收入预期和优化分配是提高购房吸引 力的关键，实际房贷利率的降低可以通过解决租售比倒挂问题来提高购 房吸引力。 房地产行业面临成交量走弱、新旧库存压力和收入预期低迷等多重挑战。 优质龙头公司通过提升市占率和优化格局，展现出较强的抗风险能力， 业绩增长潜力较大。 Q&A 进入三季度以来，地产行业的基本面景气度出现了加速下滑，市场对政策博弈 的预期升温。未来哪些政策仍然值得期待？这些政策的有效性如何？ 在我们对全球 1970 年以来 58 个经济体所形成的 195 个房价周期进行复 ...

（原标题：户外风刮到购物中心一层） 英国户外品牌Barbour正在试营业，它的对面是意大利自行车品牌COLNAGO，新西兰户外品牌 icebreaker隔壁的围挡上显示，美国户外品牌Smartwool全国首店也即将开业——走进北京来福士一楼， 一股户外风潮扑面而来。 一层向来是购物中心租金最高、位置最优越的黄金区域。几年前，这家购物中心靠近一楼入口的位置， 还是被轻奢服装、时尚潮牌、黄金珠宝等品牌占据。经过3年调整，如今北京来福士一层约40%的面 积，都让位给了定位高端的户外运动品牌。 不仅是场内，北京来福士东广场上那座墨绿色的骑行驿站把户外风延伸到场外，今年"五一"前骑行驿站 建成以来已经举办了近130场城市骑行活动。活动通常会从驿站前空地上的热身环节开始，参与者在解 锁全新骑行路线后，在刷新骑行榜排名的同时，也能兑换相应权益。 北京来福士中心是新加坡凯德集团旗下综合体旗舰品牌"来福士"的一员，坐落于北京市东直门立交桥的 西南角，地处东二环核心商务区。 凯德投资（中国）华北区商业管理董事总经理亓莉莉称，这个骑行驿站并非只是一个单纯的维修、补给 空间，还是由购物中心发起并长期维护的圈层会员互动平台，能够为对骑 ...

由此可见，目前一线城市和其他重点城市的租金回报率已经超过大型银行1年期甚至3年期的定期存款利 率。此外，记者在深圳市场走访时发现，不仅是传统的商务公寓，越来越多普通住宅的租金回报率也远 远超过大型银行定期存款利率，甚至直逼房贷利率。 "如果下个月这房子再卖不出去，我就会'售改租'，现在的情况跟过去不同，收租金可能比存银行理财 合适。"家住深圳市福田八卦岭片区的张女士有一套两居室正在出售，为了方便客户看房，他特意将房 子空置了两个月。她告诉记者，当前该小区同户型的房价已经从最高峰的500万元左右跌至210万元左 右，目前月租还能达到4600元左右，租金回报率达到2.6%左右。"210万元还不是短时间内能成交的价 格，目前深圳首套房贷利率为3.05%。如果房价继续小幅下跌，租金回报率就直逼房贷利率了。"张女 士表示，"在不着急用钱的前提下，身边越来越多的业主朋友都宁愿继续当'房东'。" 在存贷利率"双降"的背景下，租金回报率一直是市场热议的话题。 近日，记者走访发现，除了传统的商务公寓，一些普通住宅的租金回报率也持续上升，甚至直逼房贷利 率。越来越多手里有房的业主和购房者都在思考：继续当房东收租金还是将房子降价出 ...

在存贷利率"双降"的背景下，租金回报率一直是市场热议的话题。 近日，记者走访发现，除了传统的商务公寓，一些普通住宅的租金回报率也持续上升，甚至直逼房贷利 率。越来越多手里有房的业主和购房者都在思考：继续当房东收租金还是将房子降价出手？"买房收 租"是否划算？ 租金回报率不断回升 近日，国家统计局发布的《2025年10月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》数据显示，四大一 线城市的新房市场只有上海保持同比增长，涨幅为0.3%，北京、广州和深圳分别下降0.1%、0.8%和 0.7%。二手房市场方面，全国70个大中城市无一城环比、同比出现价格上涨。 与房价的表现不同，麟评居住大数据研究院监测数据显示，2025年上半年重点50城租金回报率已经达到 2.08%。中指研究院提供的数据显示，截至今年10月北上广深四个一线城市的租金回报率分别为 1.52%、1.73%、1.68%、1.52%。而在今年4月，上述数据分别为1.49%、1.68%、1.63%、1.49%。 由此可见，目前一线城市和其他重点城市的租金回报率已经超过大型银行1年期甚至3年期的定期存款利 率。此外，记者在深圳市场走访时发现，不仅是传统的商务公寓， ...

在存贷利率"双降"的背景下，租金回报率一直是市场热议的话题。 近日，记者走访发现，除了传统的商务公寓，一些普通住宅的租金回报率也持续上升，甚至直逼房贷利率。越来越多手里有房的业主和购房者都在思考：继续当房 东收租金还是将房子降价出手？"买房收租"是否划算？ 租金回报率不断回升 近日，国家统计局发布的《2025年10月份70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动情况》数据显示，四大一线城市的新房市场只有上海保持同比增长，涨幅为0.3%，北 京、广州和深圳分别下降0.1%、0.8%和0.7%。二手房市场方面，全国70个大中城市无一城环比、同比出现价格上涨。 与房价的表现不同，麟评居住大数据研究院监测数据显示，2025年上半年重点50城租金回报率已经达到2.08%。中指研究院提供的数据显示，截至今年10月北上广 深四个一线城市的租金回报率分别为1.52%、1.73%、1.68%、1.52%。而在今年4月，上述数据分别为1.49%、1.68%、1.63%、1.49%。 由此可见，目前一线城市和其他重点城市的租金回报率已经超过大型银行1年期甚至3年期的定期存款利率。此外，记者在深圳市场走访时发现，不仅是传统的商务 公寓，越来越 ...

瑞银展望-中国房地产何时见底 20251117 摘要 中国房地产市场正经历从新房到二手房再到租房的转变，租金需求增加 但供给过剩依然存在，一线城市租售比低，购房者面临房价不涨即亏损 的风险。 保障房大量供应分流商品房和租赁市场，十四五规划计划建设 870 万套 保障房，每年约占新房成交的 20%，对商品住宅市场形成压力。 新发展模式包括好房子、优化保障房供给和取消预售制度，取消预售将 使民营开发商难以维持地产开发，高端豪宅需求或增加但整体项目减少。 中国内地高端零售业有恢复迹象，受益于股市向好、金价上涨及国产品 牌崛起，购物中心供给预计减少，提升商场话语权和租金收入。 香港住宅租金过去两年每年增长约 5%-6%，主要因高才通和优才通政 策吸引人才，当前租售比约为 3.7%，按揭利率降至 3.3%-3.4%。 香港写字楼市场需求增加，金融业占主导，中环写字楼租金预计 2026 年见底回稳，但其他地区可能继续下跌，零售业面临国产品牌、深圳退 税和电商冲击。 稳定房地产市场需国家收储以减轻保障房供给对租金的影响，并降低按 揭利率，房价变化是判断市场走势的关键指标，关系居民财富和金融风 险。 Q&A 中国内地房地产市 ...

香港楼市企稳的背景下，衡量房产估值水平的核心指标——租售比，受到市场更多关注，为观察内地一线城市提供了参考坐标。 进一步来看，国泰海通证券梁中华认为，房子的收益来自两部分，一部分是租金回报，另一部分是房价波动即资本利得。最重要的是稳住房价的 预期，而房价的预期很大程度上决定于宏观通胀的预期，因为房地产、股票、债券等资产价格变化本质上是实体经济的"映射"。 根据国投证券在11月6日发布的报告，2025年二季度以来，一线城市二手房市场正经历价格调整，其中2018-2025年竣工的次新房源价格从第二季 度的116872元/㎡调至第三季度的99169元/㎡，单季度调整15.1%。相较之下，一线城市新房价格表现出较强韧性，年初至今跌幅仅为0.6%。 与此同时，香港楼市显现出显著复苏态势，香港差饷物业估价署最新数据显示，香港私人住宅售价指数已连升4个月，其中9月环比上涨1.32%， 租金指数连涨10个月并创历史新高。 当前香港租金回报率超过房贷利率的格局，不仅改善了投资吸引力，也为房价企稳提供了坚实支撑。这一企稳过程历时15个月，背后是交易成本 下降与利率下行的双重作用。据东北证券测算，香港中高端住宅净租金收益率达3.0 ...

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market is experiencing a dichotomy between supportive policies and concerning data, leading to uncertainty about future housing affordability and choices [3]. Group 1: Policy Changes - Multiple banks have reduced mortgage down payment ratios, with first-time homebuyers now at 20% and second-time buyers at 30% [1]. - Major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen have implemented "recognizing house but not loan" policies, allowing buyers without existing mortgage records to access favorable rates [1]. Group 2: Market Data - In August, 42 cities saw a month-on-month decline in new home prices, while 96 cities experienced a drop in second-hand home prices, indicating a broader market weakness [2]. - The number of second-hand homes listed for sale is rising sharply, with Shanghai nearing 200,000 listings, Beijing close to 190,000, and Guangzhou exceeding 130,000 [2]. Group 3: Diverging Opinions - Optimists believe that the influx of favorable policies will lead to a rebound in housing prices, suggesting that delaying purchases could result in missed opportunities [6]. - Pessimists argue that the short-term effects of policies are limited and that the long-term downward adjustment of the market is inevitable, potentially offering more choices in the future [8]. Group 4: Market Analysis - **Declining Demand**: The pandemic has significantly impacted household incomes, reducing purchasing power and leading to more cautious buying behavior [8]. - **Rental Yield Concerns**: The current rental yield in China suggests a significant property bubble, with landlords potentially needing 50-60 years to recoup their investment [8]. - **Rising Household Debt**: A large portion of household wealth is tied up in real estate, with 42% of families owning multiple properties, limiting their ability to take on more debt [9]. - **Increased Affordable Housing Supply**: The government is focusing on building more affordable housing to address the needs of low- and middle-income groups, which may help stabilize prices [9].

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of the rental yield ratio (rent-to-price ratio) in the real estate market, particularly in the context of the second-hand housing market [1][3][51] - It discusses the current state of rental yields in Qingdao, highlighting that many properties are showing improved rental yields, which can influence investment decisions [6][51] Group 1: Rental Yield Analysis - The rental yield ratio is calculated as (annual rent / property price) × 100%, with a ratio of 2-5% considered reasonable for property investment [4][6] - In Qingdao, several examples illustrate the rental yields: - Xinjidu Phase I has a rental yield of approximately 2% with a total price of 2.3-2.5 million and an annual rent of about 48,000 [12][14] - Hainiu Garden shows a rental yield of around 2.5% with a price of about 1.6 million and an annual rent of 36,000-40,000 [22][26] - Jinxiu Huacheng Phase I has a favorable rental yield with an annual rent of about 40,000 and a price of around 21,000 per square meter [30] - The article notes that a rental yield of around 3% is considered attractive, allowing landlords to feel more secure about market trends [50] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The article highlights a shift in the market where older properties, previously overlooked, are gaining attention due to their lower prices and higher rental yields [49][51] - The rental yield improvement is attributed to a decline in property prices rather than an increase in rental prices, indicating a more favorable investment environment for certain properties [53] - Properties in urban areas with good locations and amenities are seeing a rise in rental yields, making them more appealing compared to traditional savings and investment options [51] Group 3: Investment Considerations - The article advises caution regarding properties in suburban areas where rental demand is low and vacancy rates are high, as these properties may not provide reliable rental income [54][55] - It suggests that an increase in rental yields can shorten the return period for property investments, especially for long-term holders [57] - Investors are encouraged to research rental yields thoroughly before purchasing properties, as favorable rental income can be a significant factor in decision-making [51]

Core Viewpoint - The future trajectory of the Hong Kong real estate market in the next six months may depend on the unemployment rate in Hong Kong, with indications of a market recovery observed recently [4][20]. Market Recovery Indicators - Real estate agents in Hong Kong report an increase in client activity and transactions, suggesting signs of recovery in the market [4][5]. - The CCL index from Centaline Property, which reflects Hong Kong property prices, has shown a recovery from a low of 135 points in May 2023 to 141 points currently [5][7]. - New home sales have increased significantly, with the third quarter of 2023 recording 5,530 transactions worth over 610 billion HKD, marking a 7.5% increase in volume and a 30.3% increase in sales value compared to the previous quarter [7]. Mainland Buyers' Influence - Mainland buyers have shown renewed interest in the Hong Kong property market, with nearly 1,000 billion HKD spent on properties in the first nine months of 2023 [7][9]. - In the third quarter, mainland buyers accounted for 38.7% of new home purchases, with a total expenditure of 500 billion HKD, nearing 70% of the half-year total [9][10]. - The trend indicates that over 80% of luxury properties sold in October were purchased by mainland buyers, highlighting their dominance in the high-end market [10][11]. Luxury Market Dynamics - The luxury property market is increasingly driven by younger mainland buyers, with many transactions occurring for properties priced over 50 million HKD [11][12]. - The "Tian Yu" project has been particularly popular among mainland buyers, with significant sales recorded in October [12][13]. - The shift in buyer demographics is attributed to local wealthy individuals being constrained by declining commercial property values, leading to a "blood transfusion" in the luxury market [15][16]. Economic Factors and Future Outlook - The overall sentiment in the market is optimistic, with expectations of continued rental price increases and a favorable rental yield attracting investors [18]. - The stock market's performance has positively influenced the real estate market, with the Hang Seng Index reaching new highs [19]. - However, there remains a divergence of opinions regarding whether the market has truly bottomed out, with some analysts suggesting that the unemployment rate will be a critical factor in determining future market conditions [20].