Workflow
库存与需求
icon
Search documents
能源日报-20250828
Guo Tou Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 11:19
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Fuel oil: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] - Low - sulfur fuel oil: White star (suggesting a short - term balanced state with poor operability, advisable to wait and see) [1] - Asphalt: ★★ (indicating a clear upward trend and the market is fermenting) [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★★★ (indicating a clearer upward trend and a relatively appropriate investment opportunity) [1] 2. Core Views - The overnight international oil prices rose, and the SC10 contract increased by 0.42% during the day. After the peak oil - using season, there is an opportunity to short crude oil again. [2] - The oil price continued to correct, putting pressure on fuel - related futures. The overall fundamentals are relatively positive, and the FU crack spread is still supported. [3] - The asphalt futures price rose against the trend. The demand potential remains, and low inventory supports the price. [4] - The international LPG market rebounded, and the domestic market is in a repair market. The long - term overseas production increase pressure affects the far - month contracts, resulting in a near - strong and far - weak market. [5] 3. Summary by Category Crude Oil - The SC10 contract increased by 0.42% during the day. Last week, the U.S. EIA crude oil inventory decreased by 2.392 million barrels more than expected, and gasoline and refined oil inventories also declined. Before the geopolitical risk further intensifies, crude oil may enter a volatile trend. [2] Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - As of the end of July, Singapore's marine fuel sales decreased by 1.7% year - on - year, and China's bonded marine fuel filling demand decreased by 1% year - on - year. The domestic refinery production enthusiasm was low, with supply decreasing by 19% year - on - year as of July. The inventories in Singapore and Fujairah decreased, and the high - sulfur resources were supported by geopolitical premiums. [3] Asphalt - The asphalt futures price rose against the trend, and the crack spread once exceeded 350. In August, the sample refinery shipments increased by 88,000 year - on - year, and leading indicators showed positive signs. The factory and social inventories decreased significantly, and the BU2510 contract exceeded 3,500 yuan/ton. [4] LPG - The international market rebounded under the support of import demand, and the domestic arrival volume continued to rise. The short - term high chemical demand can be maintained, the spot bearish pressure has been released, and the market is in a repair state. Long - term overseas production increase pressure affects the far - month contracts. [5]