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塑料期货月报-20260203
An Liang Qi Huo· 2026-02-03 13:00
1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided content does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the domestic polyethylene market showed multi - dimensional characteristics. Supply increased, demand was in the off - season, inventory was differentiated, and the cost increase supported the improvement of industry profits. In February, affected by the Spring Festival, the market is expected to be weakly adjusted due to intensified supply - demand contradictions and uncertainties in inventory and cost [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory Supply Side Supply and Capacity Utilization - In January, the total domestic polyethylene supply expanded, with the total production reaching 3.44482 million tons, an increase of 730,250 tons from the previous month. LLDPE production was 1.58449 million tons, an increase of 285,420 tons. The production loss due to device maintenance increased by 24.8% to 488,270 tons. The overall capacity utilization rate rose to 83.70%, up 3.8 percentage points. Regional capacity utilization showed a "two - up, one - down" pattern [7][8]. - In the follow - up, the restart of the 400,000 - ton PE device in Zhonghua Quanzhou may increase the supply pressure [9]. Inventory - At the end of January, the total inventory of PE production enterprises decreased to 323,000 tons, a decrease of 135,600 tons. The social inventory of PE increased to 479,600 tons, an increase of 81,000 tons, showing a differentiated pattern [12][13]. Import - In January, the international LLDPE price rose. The import volume in December increased to 1.3299 million tons, an increase of 267,750 tons. The average import profit of each variety improved in January [17][18][19]. Demand Side - In January, the overall downstream start - up rate of polyethylene was 39.86%, a decrease of 2.58%. The start - up rates of the agricultural film and packaging film industries decreased. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises showed structural changes. In February, the demand is expected to be weakly stable, with only a few areas having phased improvement [21][22][23]. Cost and Profit Cost - In January, the cost of oil - based polyethylene increased to 7,395.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 382.71 yuan/ton, and the cost of coal - based polyethylene increased to 6,495 yuan/ton, a increase of 46.86 yuan/ton [24][26]. Profit - In January, the loss of oil - based enterprises narrowed, with the profit at - 588.29 yuan/ton, a recovery of 78.71 yuan/ton. The profit of coal - based enterprises increased significantly, reaching 346.43 yuan/ton, a sharp increase of 553.14 yuan/ton [27]. Spread - In January, the spread of PE - PVC:01 and PE - PP:01 contracts continued to narrow, reflecting the strength and weakness of related product markets [28]. Summary - In February, the polyethylene market is expected to be affected by the Spring Festival. The supply pressure may increase, the demand will weaken, the inventory may accumulate, and the cost support is uncertain. The market is likely to be weakly adjusted [30].