周五夜盘，塑料期货主力合约遭遇一波急速下挫，最低下探至6998.00元。截止收盘，塑料主力合约报 7004.00元，跌幅0.68%。 塑料期货主力小幅下跌0.68%，对于后市行情如何，相关机构该如何评价？ 机构 核心观点 冠通期货 预计近期塑料震荡下行 瑞达期货（002961） 节后L2601预计偏弱震荡 假期受欧佩克同意小幅增产、美国政府停摆引发经济增长担忧、俄乌冲突再度升温影响，国际油价下跌 反弹，较节前窄幅下降。PE供需方面，10月多套装置重启，新增停车产能偏少，产能利用率预计环比 上升。同时新产能有望落地，国内聚乙烯供应或将出现较大幅度提升。下游棚膜需求逐渐进入年内高 位，或带动PE下游开工率达到下半年峰值。库存受供应端增量影响，累库预期较为明确。综合考虑， 节后L2601预计偏弱震荡，区间预计在7100-7220附近。 冠通期货：预计近期塑料震荡下行 10月9日，新增中化泉州HDPE等检修装置，塑料开工率下跌至89%左右，目前开工率处于中性偏高水 平。PE下游开工率环比上升1.21个百分点至44.13%，农膜逐步进入旺季，农膜订单和农膜原料库存加速 增加，包装膜订单小幅减少，只是整体PE下游开工率仍 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The demand for both PE and PP remains weak, which continues to limit their upward potential and is still constrained by supply - side pressure. The recovery of demand is slow, and the cost support is insufficient. For PE, the supply is increasing, and the demand realization rate is slow; for PP, the supply pressure is large, and the profit at a low level restricts its downward space [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main - contract closed at 7,169 yuan/ton (+27), PP main - contract at 6,898 yuan/ton (+21). LL North China spot was 7,130 yuan/ton (+50), LL East China spot 7,140 yuan/ton (+30), PP East China spot 6,750 yuan/ton (+20). LL North China basis was - 39 yuan/ton (+23), LL East China basis - 29 yuan/ton (+3), PP East China basis - 148 yuan/ton (-1) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: PE开工率 was 81.8% (+1.5%), PP开工率 was 75.5% (+0.6%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 48.7 yuan/ton (-128.7), PP oil - based production profit was - 571.3 yuan/ton (-128.7), PDH - based PP production profit was - 280.6 yuan/ton (-12.9) [1]. - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 64.1 yuan/ton (+84.8), PP import profit was - 529.7 yuan/ton (-0.8), PP export profit was 15.0 US dollars/ton (-19.9) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film开工率 was 32.9% (+6.1%), PE downstream packaging film开工率 was 52.4% (+0.6%), PP downstream plastic weaving开工率 was 43.9% (+0.3%), PP downstream BOPP film开工率 was 61.4% (+0.0%) [2]. Market Analysis - **PE**: Supply increased as many previously - shut - down plants restarted. Demand improved slightly with pre - holiday stocking, but the demand realization rate was slow, and social inventory decreased slowly. Cost support from international oil prices was insufficient [3]. - **PP**: Supply pressure was large due to expected restart of plants, increased coal - enterprise production, and new capacity release. Demand improved marginally but slowly. Cost was supported by firm propane, and low profit limited the downward space [3]. Strategy - **Single - side**: Neutral for L and PP [4]. - **Inter - period**: L01 - L05 reverse spread; PP01 - PP05 reverse spread [4]. - **Inter - variety**: No strategy provided [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is to "wait and see" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market opened lower and fluctuated. The start - up rate of plastics was at a neutral level, and the downstream start - up rate of PE increased slightly but was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September was average, and the petrochemical inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials decreased due to the decline in crude oil prices. Although the agricultural film was entering the peak season, the peak season was not as good as expected. There was no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, and it was recommended to wait and see [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On September 23, the start - up rate of plastics remained at around 85%, a neutral level. The downstream start - up rate of PE increased by 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film was entering the peak season, but the growth rate of orders and raw material inventory slowed down. Packaging film orders also increased. Petrochemical enterprises' destocking in September was average, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The cost of raw materials decreased as crude oil prices fell. A new 400,000 - ton/year capacity of Jilin Petrochemical HDPE was put into operation in late July, slightly reducing the plastics start - up rate. The peak season of agricultural film did not meet expectations, and there was no anti - involution policy, so it was recommended to wait and see [1] Futures Market - The plastics 2601 contract opened lower, increased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 7,090 yuan/ton, the highest was 7,128 yuan/ton, and it closed at 7,105 yuan/ton, down 0.67% below the 60 - day moving average. The position increased by 8,837 lots to 589,676 lots [2] Spot Market - Most of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 80 to + 20 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7,010 - 7,570 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,350 - 9,630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,430 - 8,150 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, on September 23, the start - up rate of plastics remained at around 85%, a neutral level. On the demand side, as of the week of September 19, the downstream start - up rate of PE increased by 0.75 percentage points to 42.92%. The agricultural film was entering the peak season, but the overall downstream start - up rate of PE was still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 670,000 tons on Tuesday, 95,000 tons lower than the same period last year. The destocking of petrochemical enterprises in September was average, and the inventory was at a neutral level. The price of Brent crude oil's December contract dropped to 66 US dollars/barrel, and the prices of Northeast Asian and Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at 840 US dollars/ton and 845 US dollars/ton respectively [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The supply of PE is expected to increase due to device restarts, while the PP device production profit has shrunk significantly, leading to a decline in PP开工. The downstream demand is in the seasonal improvement stage of "Golden September", but the demand fulfillment rate is slow and the support is limited. The cost support has weakened as oil prices are under pressure and the external propane has corrected [2] Summary According to Related Catalogs 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the plastic futures main contract trend, LL East China - main contract basis, polypropylene futures main contract trend, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工 rate is 80.4% (+2.3%), PP开工 rate is 74.9% (-1.9%). PE oil - based production profit is 219.0 yuan/ton (+48.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 411.0 yuan/ton (+48.1), PDH - made PP production profit is - 247.5 yuan/ton (+55.5) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Figures show HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt copolymer - drawn wire East China, PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [27][35][38] 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit is - 81.1 yuan/ton (+11.0), PP import profit is - 471.1 yuan/ton (+11.0), PP export profit is 27.7 US dollars/ton (-1.4) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 26.8% (+2.6%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 51.8% (+0.5%), PP downstream woven operating rate is 43.6% (+0.5%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 61.4% (-0.1%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures show PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, PP port inventory [75][78][83]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The polyethylene price is expected to rise due to the support from the demand side, but the price rebound may be limited because of the continuous pressure from the supply side [11]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. New Capacity Continues to Be Released, and Domestic Production Increases Significantly - From Q4 2024 to H1 2025, the concentration of new ethylene cracking device launches was high, increasing the supply pressure of domestic production, and the expansion was mainly in low - pressure and linear polyethylene, intensifying homogeneous competition [1]. - As of now, 343 million tons of new polyethylene devices have been put into production in 2025, and the total planned production capacity for the year is 663 million tons [1][2]. - From January to August, the maintenance loss of polyethylene in China was 323.41 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.03%. The polyethylene production was 2068.56 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 15%, and the industry's operating rate has been around 75% since Q2 [4]. - There are still multiple device launches planned for the later period, mainly high - pressure and low - pressure, with limited pressure on linear polyethylene launches, and most launches are concentrated at the end of the year. The pressure on the general - purpose material market mainly comes from H1, and the production release in H1 still poses a significant threat to H2 [4]. 2. Demand in the Traditional Peak Season Remains to Be Released, and the Room for Improving the Supply - Demand Contradiction May Be Limited - The operating rate of the plastic downstream industry has further declined year - on - year this year, and insufficient demand support has been a persistent problem. During the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the demand of most downstream product industries has increased, but overall it is still weaker than expected [7]. - In the agricultural film industry, demand has further increased, and the industry is in a full - production peak season. The operating rate is expected to increase by 20 percentage points and reach its peak in early November. However, downstream factories mainly make rigid purchases [9]. - In the PE packaging film sector, supported by domestic and foreign holidays, orders have been released intensively, and the inventory preparation expectation has increased. Some export enterprises have seen an improvement in order - taking [9]. - In September, the PE pipe market is expected to shift from the traditional off - season to the peak season, but the recovery of the municipal infrastructure and real estate industries is insufficient, restricting market recovery. After late September, demand is expected to improve [10].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [4] Core View - Recently, the cost - end oil price has rebounded, and the external propane price has risen strongly. With the support of macro - sentiment, polyolefins have rebounded slightly with fluctuations. Some upstream petrochemical plants have shut down for maintenance, and the capacity utilization rate has decreased slightly. There is an expectation of new capacity from ExxonMobil, and Daxie Petrochemical is continuously increasing production, so the supply is still under pressure. The downstream demand is in the "Golden September" seasonal improvement stage, with the overall downstream factory operating rate rising slightly. However, the downstream mainly maintains rigid procurement, and the demand fulfillment rate is still slow. PP production profit has shrunk significantly, and the cost - end support is strong [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7,245 yuan/ton (+11), PP main contract at 6,982 yuan/ton (+12). LL North China spot was 7,200 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot was 7,170 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot was 6,780 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis was - 45 yuan/ton (-11), LL East China basis was - 75 yuan/ton (-11), and PP East China basis was - 202 yuan/ton (-12) [2] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 78.0% (-2.5%), PP operating rate was 76.8% (-3.1%) [2] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 170.9 yuan/ton (-70.8), PP oil - based production profit was - 459.1 yuan/ton (-70.8), and PDH - based PP production profit was - 303.0 yuan/ton (-12.1) [2] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 92.1 yuan/ton (+10.2), PP import profit was - 482.1 yuan/ton (-9.8), and PP export profit was 29.1 US dollars/ton (+1.2) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 24.1% (+3.9%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 51.3% (+0.8%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 43.1% (+0.4%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.6% (+0.1%) [2] Market Analysis - Cost - end factors and macro - sentiment have driven polyolefins to rebound slightly. Supply is under pressure due to potential new capacity and production increases. Downstream demand is in a seasonal improvement stage, but the demand fulfillment is slow, and PP cost - end support is strong [3] Strategy - Unilateral strategy is neutral; inter - period strategy is 01 - 05 reverse spread; no inter - variety strategy [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The plastic futures 2601 contract is expected to maintain a volatile and stable trend, driven by the cost support from stable crude oil prices, reduced polyethylene supply due to plant maintenance, and improved downstream demand during the peak season [2][5] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Crude Oil Price and Cost Support - The trading logic in the crude oil futures market comes from three aspects: macro - factor drive with a "tight - to - loose" macro - environment, increased supply as OPEC+ continues to expand production, and rising geopolitical premiums in the oil market. After the game between supply increase and enhanced geopolitical risks, the domestic and international crude oil prices are expected to be volatile and stable, providing cost support for plastic futures [3] 3.2 Domestic Polyethylene Supply - Since September, the weekly output of domestic polyethylene has declined slightly due to the maintenance of devices such as Yulong Petrochemical, Liaoyang Petrochemical, and Yangzi Petrochemical. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic polyethylene enterprise maintenance loss was 14.62 tons, a week - on - week increase of 2.28 tons. However, considering the planned restarts and new maintenance in the second half of the month, the supply decline momentum is expected to weaken, and the weekly output may stabilize and rebound [4] 3.3 Downstream Demand - With the arrival of the "Golden September" peak season, the profits of films and packaging films have improved. As of the week of September 12, 2025, the domestic film profit rose to - 220 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 24.14%, and the packaging film profit was 148 yuan/ton, a year - on - year increase of 39.62%. The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries reached 42.17%, a week - on - week increase of 1.11%. The demand side is expected to continue growing [5]

Group 1: Oil Market Dynamics - The escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased geopolitical tensions, leading to a stabilization and slight rebound in domestic and international crude oil futures prices [1][2] - Current trading logic in the crude oil market is driven by macroeconomic factors, increased supply surplus expectations, and geopolitical risk premiums [2] - OPEC+ has decided to continue increasing production in October, contributing to expectations of a supply surplus in the fourth quarter [2] Group 2: Polyethylene Production and Demand - Domestic polyethylene weekly production has slightly decreased due to maintenance at several petrochemical facilities, resulting in a significant increase in maintenance loss [3] - As of September 12, maintenance losses for domestic polyethylene reached 146,200 tons, with a weekly increase of 22,800 tons [3] - The upcoming restart of several polyethylene facilities is expected to stabilize production levels, despite some facilities entering maintenance [3] Group 3: Seasonal Demand Trends - The traditional consumption peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" is approaching, leading to a gradual recovery in the plastic end-user demand market [4] - Profit margins in the film and packaging film sectors have improved, with the domestic film industry showing a significant year-on-year improvement in profitability [4] - The overall operating rate of downstream polyethylene industries has increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International oil prices rebounded, and propane prices continued to rise, providing cost - side support for a slight rebound in the polyolefin market. Upstream supply is expected to remain at a high level, but there is significant inventory pressure. Downstream demand is in a seasonally improving phase, with overall downstream factory operating rates rising slightly, but the fundamental situation remains weak [3] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7232元/吨（+63），PP主力合约收盘价为6966元/吨（+53），LL华北现货为7160元/吨（+10），LL华东现货为7170元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6800元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 72元/吨（-53），LL华东基差为 - 62元/吨（-63），PP华东基差为 - 166元/吨（-53） [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE开工率为78.0%（-2.5%），PP开工率为76.8%（-3.1%）；PE油制生产利润为277.0元/吨（-69.2），PP油制生产利润为 - 333.0元/吨（-69.2），PDH制PP生产利润为 - 271.2元/吨（+64.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Not provided in the summarized content 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 101.2元/吨（-22.4），PP进口利润为 - 471.2元/吨（+40.4），PP出口利润为27.7美元/吨（+0.3） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rates and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为24.1%（+3.9%），PE下游包装膜开工率为51.3%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工率为43.1%（+0.4%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为61.6%（+0.1%） [2] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream and mid - stream inventory pressure is large, but specific inventory data is not provided in the summarized content [3] Strategies - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - delivery: 01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long L - P [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 01 - 05 reverse spread; Inter - variety: Long L - P [3] Core Viewpoints - The fundamental situation of strong expectations and weak reality continues, and polyolefins are in weak consolidation. Multiple PE units are under maintenance, leading to a slight decline in the overall operating rate and a projected slight relief in supply pressure, while new PP production capacity is ramping up. Downstream demand is in the transitional period between the seasonal peak and off - peak seasons of "Golden September and Silver October". The operating rates of downstream sectors such as agricultural films and packaging films show a slight upward trend, while those of plastic weaving and BOPP films are flat compared to the previous period. Upstream production inventory has slightly increased, mid - stream inventory has decreased, and downstream rigid - demand procurement has increased. With the arrival of the peak demand season in mid - to late September, the downstream operating rate is expected to rise, and the short - term supply - demand margin may improve. Crude oil is in weak consolidation, the profit of PDH - based PP is slightly in the red, and the maintenance volume of PDH units has increased [2] Summary by Related Catalogs I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The report presents the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, as well as the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - It shows the production profits of LL (crude - oil - based), PP (crude - oil - based and PDH - based), and the operating rates of PE and PP, along with the weekly production and maintenance losses of PE and PP, and the capacity utilization rate of PDH - based PP [22][23][29] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - The differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the differences between PP low - melt copolymer, PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China are presented [28][36][37] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - The import profits of LL and PP, the export profit of PP to Southeast Asia, and the price differences between LL in different regions (US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Europe FD - China CFR) and PP in different regions (PP homopolymer injection molding in US Gulf FOB - China CFR, Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR) are shown [44][51][54] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - The operating rates of PE downstream agricultural films, packaging films, winding films, and PP downstream plastic weaving, BOPP, injection molding, as well as the production profits of PP downstream plastic weaving and BOPP are presented [63][64][73] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - The inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports are shown [75][79][81]