聚烯烃日报 | 2026-02-27 下游复工缓慢，去库压力仍存 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6668元/吨（-109），PP主力合约收盘价为6675元/吨（-45），LL华北现货为6580 元/吨（-100），LL华东现货为6660元/吨（-120），PP华东现货为6650元/吨（-30），LL华北基差为-88元/吨（+9）， LL华东基差为-8元/吨（-11）， PP华东基差为-25元/吨（+15）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为88.0%（-0.5%），PP开工率为75.5%（-0.4%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为-215.7元/吨（+13.9），PP油制生产利润为-555.7元/吨（+13.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为-467.7元/吨（+20.3）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-42.0元/吨（-17.3），PP进口利润为-390.5元/吨（-58.0），PP出口利润为-62.5美元/吨（-8.2）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为10.1%（-14.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为24.7%（+4.4%），PP下游塑编开工 率为29.3%（+5.2%），PP下 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Plastic supply and demand pattern improves limitedly, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no positions for the holiday. Since there is new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is advisable to hold a light - position short L - PP spread [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. Petrochemical de - stocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about military conflicts between the US and Iran. New plastic production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6732 yuan/ton, the highest was 6834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6734 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.72%. The position decreased by 2602 lots to 501315 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Some prices in the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Petrochemical de - stocking was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $675 per ton week - on - week [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - The plastics supply-demand pattern has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventories and the current basis having been repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastics production capacity coming on stream recently, the operating rate being higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L-PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased. Petrochemical destocking in February was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years. On the cost side, crude oil prices rebounded due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased recently. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started yet, and the operating rates of agricultural and packaging films have decreased, with downstream operating rates expected to continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions, closing at 6787 yuan/ton, up 0.55% and above the 60-day moving average. The持仓 volume decreased by 8697 lots to 503,917 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market partially declined, with price changes ranging from -100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On February 11th, the restart of overhauled units such as the new HDPE at Dushanzi Petrochemical led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 92%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending February 6th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points week-on-week to 33.73%. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decline, reaching relatively low levels in recent years, and orders for packaging films also decreased, with the overall downstream operating rate of PE showing a seasonal decline [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early inventory on Wednesday was flat week-on-week at 460,000 tons, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Petrochemical destocking was decent, and current petrochemical inventories are at relatively low levels in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of ethylene in Northeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $695 per ton, and that in Southeast Asia remained flat week-on-week at $675 per ton [4].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to break the involution. With low upstream petrochemical inventory and the current basis being repaired, plastics are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently, a higher operating rate than PP, and the concentrated demand for mulch film not yet starting, the L - PP spread is expected to narrow [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs **Market Analysis** - On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis, showing a seasonal decline. Petrochemical inventory reduction in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years. The cost side saw an increase in crude oil prices due to market concerns about a potential military conflict between the US and Iran. New production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. **Futures and Spot Market Quotes** - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then reduced positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6723 yuan/ton, the highest was 6779 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6775 yuan/ton, up 0.24% above the 60 - day moving average. The position volume decreased by 5995 lots to 512614 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Part of the PE spot market declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to +0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. **Fundamental Tracking** - **Supply**: On February 10, the restart of maintenance devices such as Guangdong Petrochemical's full - density line 1 led to the plastic operating rate rising to around 91%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% on a week - on - week basis. With the approaching Spring Festival, orders and raw material inventories for agricultural films continued to decrease, and orders for packaging films also decreased, showing a seasonal decline in the overall downstream operating rate of PE [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Tuesday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 40,000 tons to 460,000 tons on a day - on - day basis, 35,000 tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose to $69/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695/ton on a week - on - week basis, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $675/ton on a week - on - week basis [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The PE market is under pressure with a weak supply - demand situation. The cost side and macro - sentiment are volatile, and attention should be paid to geopolitical developments and post - holiday inventory accumulation [3] - The PP market also has a weak supply - demand structure. The cost side has short - term support but is also volatile, and the focus is on inventory accumulation during the off - season and macro - level guidance [4] - The recommended trading strategy is to wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6721 yuan/ton (-91), the PP main contract is 6630 yuan/ton (-61). LL North China spot is 6620 yuan/ton (-30), LL East China spot is 6700 yuan/ton (-50), PP East China spot is 6680 yuan/ton (+0). LL North China basis is - 101 yuan/ton (+61), LL East China basis is - 21 yuan/ton (+41), and PP East China basis is 50 yuan/ton (+61) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate is 85.9% (+0.6%), PP operating rate is 73.9% (-0.9%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit is - 81.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PP oil - based production profit is - 391.4 yuan/ton (-135.1), PDH - based PP production profit is - 485.2 yuan/ton (-52.7) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit is - 84.1 yuan/ton (-97.3), PP import profit is - 362.9 yuan/ton (+2.8), PP export profit is - 60.4 US dollars/ton (-0.4) [2] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 30.2% (-4.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 38.8% (-3.3%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 36.7% (-5.3%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 64.6% (+0.4%) [2] 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic market is under pressure. The cost side is uncertain due to geopolitical factors. The supply side has increased pressure with many restarting devices and more imported resources, while the demand side is in a off - season with declining downstream operating rates. There may be inventory accumulation pressure in the upper and middle reaches [3] - **PP**: The short - term cost side has support. The supply side pressure is acceptable with some PDH devices under maintenance and limited increase in overall operating rate, and enterprises are actively reducing inventory. The demand side is expected to decline seasonally, and the overall demand is weak [4] 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Wait and see, as the short - term market will fluctuate widely following the cost side and macro - sentiment [5] - **Inter - period**: No relevant strategy provided - **Inter - variety**: No relevant strategy provided

Group 1: Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has limited improvement. Although the spot market followed up limitedly at the end of January, there is still an expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry, and the upstream petrochemical inventory is low. Currently, the basis has been repaired, and polyolefins are expected to fluctuate within a range. Due to the recent new production capacity of plastics and its higher operating rate than PP, coupled with the fact that the concentrated demand for mulch film has not started, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [4]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 90.5% and is at a moderately high level, as the overhaul devices such as Yulong Petrochemical's full - density line 2 restarted. PP operating rate rose 0.5 percentage points to about 80% and is at a moderately low level, with the restart of overhaul devices like Maoming Petrochemical's second - line [13]. 2. Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, agricultural film orders and raw material inventories continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased, showing a seasonal decline. The PP downstream operating rate dropped 2.24 percentage points to 49.84% week - on - week, at a neutral level in the lunar calendar over the years. Among them, the operating rate of the plastic weaving industry, the main downstream of drawn - wire PP, decreased 5.30 percentage points to 36.74% week - on - week, with orders continuing to decline and slightly lower than last year [4][18]. 3. Plastic Basis - Both spot and futures prices fell, and the basis of the 05 contract slightly rose to - 62 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [22]. 4. Plastic and PP Inventories - The petrochemical early inventory on Friday increased 0.5 tons week - on - week to 42.5 tons, 8 tons lower than the same period of last year. At the end of January, petrochemical inventory was depleted rapidly, and the current inventory is at a relatively low level compared to the same period in recent years [26][27].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The plastics supply - demand pattern has limited improvement, with low upstream petrochemical inventory and a repaired basis. It is expected that plastics will fluctuate within a range. Due to new capacity coming on - stream recently and the high plastics operating rate compared to PP, along with the non - start of concentrated demand for mulch film, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. Petrochemical inventory is at a low level compared to the same period in recent years. The cost of crude oil has rebounded. New capacity has been put into production in January 2026. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. 3.2 Futures Market - The plastics 2605 contract fluctuated with a decrease in positions, with a minimum price of 6712 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6822 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 6812 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.16%. The position volume decreased by 19,260 lots to 503,244 lots [2]. 3.3 Spot Market - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6620 - 7120 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8400 - 8980 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 8040 yuan/ton [3]. 3.4 Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: On February 6, the number of maintenance units changed little, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 90.5%, at a moderately high level. - Demand side: As of the week of February 6, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 4.03 percentage points week - on - week to 33.73%. As the Spring Festival approaches, orders and raw material inventory for agricultural films and packaging films are decreasing, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is seasonally declining. - Inventory: On Friday, the petrochemical morning inventory increased by 0.5 million tons week - on - week to 42.5 million tons, 8 million tons lower than the same period in the lunar calendar last year. - Raw material: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above 68 US dollars/barrel, the Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 700 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 675 US dollars/ton [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand pattern of plastics has limited improvement. With new capacity coming into production recently, the开工 rate is relatively high compared to PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet. It is expected that the L - PP spread will decline. The plastics market is expected to fluctuate within a range [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, the crude oil price rebounded. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started, the temperature has dropped, terminal construction has slowed down, and the demand in the north has decreased. It is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline, and terminal factories will mainly make rigid - demand purchases [1]. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract decreased in position, fluctuated and declined. The lowest price was 6,750 yuan/ton, the highest price was 6,900 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6,777 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 1.81%. The position decreased by 6,547 lots to 522,504 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,700 - 7,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,500 - 9,080 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,810 - 8,090 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 5th, new maintenance devices such as the full - density line 1 of Guangdong Petrochemical were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90.5%, which is at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of January 30th, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 1.77 percentage points to 37.76% week - on - week. The orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film decreased slightly, and the orders of packaging film also decreased slightly. The overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in the same lunar period in recent years [4]. - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 65,000 tons to 420,000 tons week - on - week, 105,000 tons lower than the same lunar period last year. At the end of January, the petrochemical inventory was quickly reduced and is currently at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat week - on - week at $700/ton, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5/ton to $675/ton week - on - week [4].

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals is experiencing a significant decline, with plastic futures showing a downward trend and a drop of approximately 1.98% [1] - The supply-demand dynamics for plastic are improving only marginally, with limited follow-up in the spot market and expectations of reduced competition in the chemical sector [1] - New production capacity for plastic has recently come online, leading to higher operating rates compared to polypropylene (PP), while demand for agricultural film has not yet peaked [1] Group 2 - Recent maintenance shutdowns at facilities such as Shanghai Petrochemical and Yulong Petrochemical have led to an increase in polyethylene (PE) production and capacity utilization rates [2] - The operating rates for downstream products, including agricultural and packaging films, are on a downward trend, indicating weak demand as companies prepare for the upcoming holiday [2] - The overall supply-demand data for PE is showing signs of weakening, with expectations of further declines in operating rates for agricultural films as the holiday approaches [3]