【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 塑料2601合约减仓震荡下行，最低价6758元/吨，最高价6822元/吨，最终收盘于6762元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，跌幅0.28%。持仓量减少9070手至488359手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-80至+50元/吨之间，LLDPE报6770-7150元/吨，LDPE报 8640-9280元/吨，HDPE报6930-7600元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月25日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端， 俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特 朗普政府极力促成俄 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至89.5%左右，处于中性水平。PP开工率上涨至83.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平。PE下游开工率 环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再 次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。PP下游开工率环比上涨 0.29个百分点至53.57%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率持平于44.24%，塑编订单环比略 有减少，略低于去年同期。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦 克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连 斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。另外，新增产能，新增产 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 11月21日，中天合创LDPE 1线等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89.5%左右，目前开工率 处于中性水平。截至11月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季， 农膜订单依然稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增 加，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中 性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油 产量造成影响，另外有消息称特朗普政府秘密与俄罗斯协调一项结束乌克兰冲突的新框架，泽连斯 基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE 和70万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略有上升。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单稳定，旺 季成色不及预期，农膜价格稳定，温度下降，北方需求开始减少，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游 企业采购意愿不足，贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货，塑料产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地， 当然反 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of the plastic industry remains unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and downstream peak seasons, it is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [1][4]. - The end of the US government shutdown and the strengthening of refined oil crack spreads in Europe and the US led to a rebound in crude oil prices after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently. The agricultural film peak season is coming to an end, downstream operating rates are falling, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,779 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 11,929 lots to 516,737 lots [2]. Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,750 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,950 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $720 per ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 塑料2601合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6781元/吨，最高价6838元/吨，最终收盘于6833元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.22%。持仓量减少19678手至528666手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-50至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6790-7220元/吨，LDPE报8750- 9280元/吨，HDPE报6950-7990元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月19日，宁夏宝丰全密度等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89%左右，目前开工率处于 中性水平。截至11月14日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%，农膜仍处于旺季，农 膜订单稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续稳定，但包装膜订单继续小幅减少，整体 PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水 平。成本端，美国政府停摆结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Due to the unchanged overall supply - demand pattern, plastics are expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the near term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price has limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from shortage to surplus by OPEC. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, its performance is not as expected, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract decreased by 0.95% with increased positions, closing at 6785 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 6049 lots to 548344 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7020 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $735/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The polyolefin market is expected to experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Plastic and PP开工率 - Plastic开工率 dropped 2.5 percentage points to around 87%, at a neutral level, due to new maintenance devices like Zhongtianhechuang LDPE 1 line [15] - PP企业开工率 fell 0.5 percentage points to around 83%, at a neutral - low level, with new maintenance devices such as CNOOC Daxie old line [15] Plastic and PP下游开工率 - As of the week of November 14, PE下游开工率 decreased 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week, remaining at a low level in recent years. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, packaging film orders are slightly decreasing [21] - As of the week of November 14, PP下游开工率 increased 0.14 percentage points to 53.28% week - on - week, at a low level in the same period over the years. However, the plastic weaving开工率 of the main downstream of drawing decreased 0.12 percentage points to 44.24% week - on - week, and plastic weaving orders decreased slightly compared with last year [21] Plastic基差 - Spot prices are stable, futures prices are rising, and the 01 contract basis has dropped to 247 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [26] Plastic and PP库存 - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons week - on - week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory is currently at a neutral level in recent years [30]

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant role of agricultural film in enhancing crop yield and shortening growth cycles, with Qingzhou Luguan Plastic Co., Ltd. emerging as a leader in the industry due to its scale, technological advancements, and global presence [1]. Production Capacity - Qingzhou Luguan Plastic Co., Ltd. operates three major production facilities, achieving a daily production capacity of 300 tons and an annual capacity exceeding 105,000 tons, meeting approximately 15% of the national demand for agricultural film [3]. - The company reported nearly 10,000 tons of agricultural film orders in 2017, generating approximately 190 million yuan in revenue, with sales volume reaching 32,000 tons and revenue surpassing 450 million yuan [3]. - By 2019, sales volume increased to 42,000 tons, with revenue exceeding 600 million yuan, marking consecutive years of record-breaking performance in the industry [3]. Technological Breakthroughs - The company has driven innovation in agricultural film technology, notably developing the internal coated anti-fog film in 1999, which extended the product's lifespan by 30% [4]. - In 2008, the introduction of external coated PO film improved light transmittance by 15% and thermal insulation by 20%, quickly capturing over 25% market share [4]. - The company has invested in advanced manufacturing resources, including the first domestic five-layer co-extrusion equipment in 2015 and the first seven-layer co-extrusion equipment in 2022, enhancing product durability and production efficiency [4]. Product Matrix and Market Coverage - The company's product range includes greenhouse film, silage film, barrier film, packaging film, and ground film, with widths ranging from 0.5 meters to 26 meters, catering to diverse agricultural needs [6]. - The company exports to over 60 countries and regions, with 35% of its sales in 2019 coming from international markets, particularly in the Middle East, where it holds an 18% market share due to the demand for high-performance agricultural film [6]. Industry Position - Qingzhou Luguan Plastic Co., Ltd. has established a closed-loop advantage through large-scale production, technological upgrades, and global market expansion, creating a competitive barrier that is difficult to replicate [7]. - The company's capabilities in production, technology, and market reach position it as a reliable partner for agricultural professionals seeking stable supply and technological advancement [7].

报告行业投资评级 - Not mentioned 报告的核心观点 - Cost increase and the Double Eleven peak season drive the plastic price to rebound, but under the overall unchanged supply - demand pattern, it is expected that plastic will mainly show a weak and volatile trend in the near future [1] 根据相关目录分别进行总结 行情分析 - On November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [1] - As of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [1] - Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [1] - The US government shutdown is about to end, and the crude oil price rebounds after a decline. However, OPEC has adjusted the global oil supply from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in the third quarter of 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, and the pattern of crude oil supply surplus has become a consensus, so the increase in crude oil price is limited [1] - In terms of supply, ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE with a new production capacity of 500,000 tons per year has started trial operation, and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical with a capacity of 800,000 tons per year has recently been put into production. The plastic operating rate has slightly decreased [1] - The agricultural film is in the peak season, and orders are gradually accumulating, but the peak season is not as good as expected. The price of agricultural film is stable, the demand in the north begins to decrease, the downstream operating rate drops, and the procurement willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient [1] - Traders are cautious about the future market, generally reducing prices and actively shipping. There is no actual policy for anti - involution in the plastic industry yet. Anti - involution and the elimination of old devices to solve the problem of petrochemical over - capacity are still macro - policies that will affect the subsequent market [1] 期现行情 期货方面 - The plastic 2601 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6,824 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6,896 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6,853 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.91%. The position volume decreased by 40,847 lots to 540,755 lots [2] 现货方面 - The PE spot market partially rose, with the price change ranging from - 0 to + 80 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,770 - 9,380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,980 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3] 基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, on November 14, new maintenance devices such as Zhongtianhechuang LDPE Line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 87%, currently at a neutral level [4] - In terms of demand, as of the week of November 14, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% compared with the previous week. The agricultural film is still in the peak season, with stable orders at a neutral level in recent years, and the raw material inventory of agricultural film remains stable. However, the orders of packaging film continue to decrease slightly, and the overall downstream operating rate of PE is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - On Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 25,000 tons to 640,000 tons compared with the previous week, 15,000 tons lower than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are normal in destocking, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in recent years [4] - For the raw material crude oil, the Brent crude oil 01 contract rose to $64 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $725 per ton compared with the previous week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene decreased by $5 per ton to $735 per ton compared with the previous week [4]

Core Viewpoint - Plastic futures experienced a slight increase, with the main contract reaching a peak of 6896.00 yuan and closing at 6865.00 yuan, reflecting a rise of 1.09% [1] Group 1: Market Analysis - Shanghai Zhongqi Futures indicates that plastic futures are primarily in a narrow range consolidation, supported by positive domestic macro sentiment, but pressured by a decline in international crude oil prices [2] - The Brent crude oil main contract fell by 3.81%, impacting trading sentiment for plastic futures, leading to limited price increases in the afternoon [2] - Current supply of plastic is ample due to low maintenance capacity and increased imports from North America, while downstream demand from agricultural and packaging films remains stable [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - According to Ruida Futures, recent maintenance at major petrochemical plants has limited impact on production days, with a slight increase in PE production and capacity utilization [3] - The supply pressure is expected to remain high due to new production facilities coming online, while downstream demand for agricultural films is peaking and packaging film orders are weakening [3] - Ningzheng Futures anticipates that the L2601 contract will experience short-term fluctuations, with supply levels remaining high and production enterprise inventories increasing [4] Group 3: Price Pressure and Technical Analysis - Ruida Futures highlights that the L2601 contract should be monitored for pressure around the 6900 yuan mark, suggesting a cautious outlook on price increases due to limited supply-demand drivers [3] - Ningzheng Futures suggests that the L2601 contract will face resistance at the 6910 yuan level, recommending a wait-and-see approach or short-term short positions [4]