发布日期：2026年1月9日 【行情分析】 【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 塑料2605合约增仓震荡上行，最低价6602元/吨，最高价6685元/吨，最终收盘于6674元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.17%。持仓量减少14010手至491289手。 现货方面： PE现货市场涨跌互现，涨跌幅在-100至+100元/吨之间，LLDPE报6500-6770元/吨，LDPE报 8650-9110元/吨，HDPE报6750-8340元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 1月9日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在87%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月9 日当周，元旦节后，PE下游开工率环比上升0.06个百分点至41.21%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继 续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。原 油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损， 且其产量仅占全球供应 ...

塑料日报：震荡运行 【冠通期货研究报告】 发布日期：2026年1月8日 【行情分析】 1月8日，新增福建联合全密度2线、浙江石化LDPE 二期等检修装置，塑料开工率下降至87%左右， 目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月2日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐 步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小 幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处 于近年同期中性水平。原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前 该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万 至5000万桶石油，原油价格依然疲软。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10 月投产，70万吨/年的中石油广西石化11月投产，近日50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）投产。近期塑料 开工率略有下降。农膜逐步退出旺季，订单持续下降，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少， 北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农膜价格继续下跌，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足， 刚 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月7日 【行情分析】 1月7日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在88%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至1月2 日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处 于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近 年同期偏低位水平。今年元旦累库幅度不大，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平。原油供应过剩 之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目前该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量 仅占全球供应不足1%，特朗普称委内瑞拉将向美国移交3000万至5000万桶石油，原油价格依然疲软。 供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE在10月投产，70万吨/年的中石油广西石化11 月投产，近日50万吨/年的巴斯夫（广东）成功产出合格产品。近期塑料开工率略有下降。农膜逐步 退出旺季，订单持续下降，温度下降，终端施工放缓，北方需求减少，北方棚膜生产基本停滞，农 膜价格继续下跌，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，部分行业进入淡 季，贸 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2026-01-06 供需改善有限，制约反弹空间 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为6449元/吨（-23），PP主力合约收盘价为6330元/吨（-18），LL华北现货为6400 元/吨（+100），LL华东现货为6480元/吨（+30），PP华东现货为6190元/吨（+30），LL华北基差为-49元/吨（+123）， LL华东基差为31元/吨（+103）， PP华东基差为-140元/吨（+48）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为83.2%（+0.6%），PP开工率为76.7%（-0.1%）。 策略 单边：LLDPE观望；PP观望；短期供需矛盾尚未改善但地缘局势升温或对成本端造成扰动，短期或延续震荡走势， 继续关注上游装置检修兑现情况。 跨期：无 跨品种：L05-PP05价差逢高做缩 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为64.5元/吨（+78.3），PP油制生产利润为-415.5元/吨（+78.3），PDH制PP生产利 润为-828.8元/吨（-35.7）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为99.3元/吨（-2.5），PP进口利润为-351.2元/吨（+7.4），PP出口利润为-22.4 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年1月5日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至87%左右，处于中性水平。PP开工率维持在82%左右，处于中性偏低水平。截至1月2日当周，PE下游开工率环 比下降0.68个百分点至41.15%，农膜逐步退出旺季，农膜订单继续下降，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续下降，包装膜 订单小幅上升，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。截至1月2日当周，PP下游开工率环比下降0.48个百分点至52.76%， 处于历年同期偏低水平。其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率环比下跌0.60个百分点至43.14%，塑编订单环比继续小幅下降，略低于去年 同期。目前石化库存处于近年同期偏高水平，压力较大。原油供应过剩之下，美军突袭委内瑞拉军事行动引发地缘政治担忧，但目 前该国关键石油设施未受损，且其产量仅占全球供应不足1%，原油价格依然疲软。另外，新增产能，P ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 31, 2025, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical led to an increase in the plastics operating rate to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, and the overall plastics supply - demand pattern remained unchanged. It is expected that the upward space for plastics in the near term is limited, and the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The restart of Maoming Petrochemical's LDPE and other maintenance devices on December 31 increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased, with the agricultural film gradually exiting the peak season, orders declining, and the overall downstream operating rate at a relatively low level in recent years. The petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level, and the cost - end crude oil price has limited rebound. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will further decline. The overall plastics supply - demand pattern remains unchanged, and the upward space is limited. The L - PP spread is expected to fall [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract showed a position - reducing and oscillating operation, closing at 6472 yuan/ton with a gain of 0.23%. The position decreased by 11,359 lots to 501,425 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market showed mixed price movements, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 31, the restart of maintenance devices at Maoming Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to around 87%, at a neutral level. - Demand: As of the week ending December 26, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% on a month - on - month basis. The agricultural film gradually exited the peak season, orders continued to decline, and the overall downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. - Inventory: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Wednesday increased by 30,000 tons to 630,000 tons compared to the previous day, 110,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fell below $62 per barrel, and the ethylene prices in Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia remained flat [4].

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 2: Core Viewpoints - On December 30, new maintenance devices such as Zhanjiang BASF's full - density were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 86.5%. The overall supply and demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and the upward space for plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream recently and the gradual end of the peak season for agricultural films, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - On December 30, new maintenance devices led to a decline in the plastic operating rate to a neutral level. As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years. The overall supply of plastics increased with new production capacity coming on - stream, and downstream demand decreased as the agricultural film season ended and terminal construction slowed. The cost - end crude oil price rebounded limitedly, and the overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remained unchanged, with limited upward space [1] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract increased positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6436 yuan/ton, the highest was 6486 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6461 yuan/ton, down 0.09% below the 60 - day moving average. The position increased by 3545 lots to 512784 lots [2] - **Spot**: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 30, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to about 86.5%, at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points to 41.83% week - on - week. The agricultural film was gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The packaging film orders also slightly decreased, and the overall PE downstream operating rate was at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: The petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday increased by 20,000 tons to 600,000 tons week - on - week, 50,000 tons higher than the same period last year, at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract fluctuated around 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - On December 26, 2025, the plastic market showed a pattern of oscillating upward, but the overall supply - demand situation remained unchanged, and the recent upward space of plastic is expected to be limited. Due to new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%, at a neutral level. The PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points week - on - week to 41.83%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories decreasing. Packaging film orders also slightly decreased. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Near the end of the month, petrochemical de - stocking accelerated, but the petrochemical inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and escalating geopolitical tensions between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. With the slowdown of terminal construction and reduced demand in the north, downstream enterprises have insufficient purchasing willingness, mainly for rigid demand. Some industries have entered the off - season, and traders are cautious about the future market and are actively reducing prices to sell goods [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract oscillated upward with reduced positions, with a minimum price of 6323 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6476 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6465 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.89%. The trading volume decreased by 15,696 lots to 526,703 lots [2]. - **Spot**: The PE spot market showed mixed trends, with price changes ranging from - 100 to + 100 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7850 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On December 26, the change in maintenance devices was small, and the plastic operating rate remained at about 87.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of December 26, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.62 percentage points week - on - week to 41.83%. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventories decreasing. Packaging film orders also slightly decreased, and the overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - **Inventory**: On Friday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 50,000 tons week - on - week to 560,000 tons, 20,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Near the end of the month, petrochemical de - stocking accelerated, but the petrochemical inventory is still at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 725 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at 745 US dollars/ton week - on - week [4].

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2 - Core Viewpoints - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, with limited upside potential for plastics in the near term due to new capacity additions and the exit of the agricultural film peak season. The L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. Group 3 - Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level. As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%, with agricultural film orders and raw material inventory decreasing. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years. With an oversupply of crude oil and geopolitical tensions, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New plastic production capacity has been put into operation recently. The overall sentiment of bulk commodities has improved, but the supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged, and some spot prices are weak [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2605 contract increased in positions and fluctuated. The lowest price was 6356 yuan/ton, the highest was 6446 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6390 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.63%. The position increased by 2047 lots to 542399 lots [2]. - Spot: The PE spot market was mostly stable, with price changes between - 50 and + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6200 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7790 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 25, the restart of maintenance devices at Yangzi Petrochemical increased the plastics operating rate to about 87.5%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the downstream PE operating rate dropped 0.55 percentage points to 42.45%. Agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory decreasing. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [4]. - Inventory: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Thursday decreased by 80,000 tons to 610,000 tons, 70,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical de - stocking has accelerated, but inventory is still at a relatively high level in recent years [4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to $62/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $745/ton [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall supply - demand pattern of plastics remains unchanged. Although the sentiment of bulk commodities has been boosted, the upward space of plastics in the near future is expected to be limited. Due to the recent new plastic production capacity coming on - stream and the gradual exit of the agricultural film peak season, the L - PP spread is expected to decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - On December 24, the number of plastic maintenance devices changed little, with the plastic operating rate remaining at around 86.5%, which is at a neutral level. The downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week as of the week ending December 19. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years, and the destocking is slow. With an oversupply of crude oil and the escalation of the geopolitical situation between the US and Venezuela, the rebound of crude oil prices is limited. New production capacity has been put into operation, and the plastic operating rate has increased slightly. The downstream construction has slowed down, demand in the north has decreased, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. [1][4] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2605 contract reduced positions and fluctuated upward, with a minimum price of 6284 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 6418 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 6408 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 1.99%. The position decreased by 41,207 lots to 540,352 lots [2]. Spot - Most of the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 150 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6150 - 6370 yuan/ton, LDPE at 7700 - 8530 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6550 - 7740 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On December 24, the number of maintenance devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 86.5%, at a neutral level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week ending December 19, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.55 percentage points to 42.45% week - on - week. The agricultural film is gradually exiting the peak season, with orders and raw material inventory continuing to decline. Packaging film orders also decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Inventory: On Wednesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 100,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Recently, petrochemical destocking has been slow, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 03 contract rose to 62 US dollars/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 725 US dollars/ton, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat week - on - week at 745 US dollars/ton [4].