1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - Geopolitical uncertainties persist, and the supply side continues to provide support for the polyolefin market. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East have led to supply issues for olefin raw materials, causing the market to rebound. For PE, the supply is tightening due to raw material shortages and upstream maintenance, while demand is gradually releasing but with cautious buying. For PP, the supply support remains strong, and although downstream purchasing is weak, the export window has opened, and prices are strongly supported in the short term [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory I. Polyolefin Basis and Inter - period Structure - The L main contract closed at 8767 yuan/ton (+52), the PP main contract closed at 9120 yuan/ton (+145). The LL North China spot price was 8500 yuan/ton (+200), the LL East China spot price was 8060 yuan/ton (-540), and the PP East China spot price was 9050 yuan/ton (+150). The LL North China basis was -267 yuan/ton (+148), the LL East China basis was -707 yuan/ton (-592), and the PP East China basis was -70 yuan/ton (+5) [1] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 76.2% (-3.8%), PP operating rate was 70.0% (-0.5%). PE oil - based production profit was -734.1 yuan/ton (-191.4), PP oil - based production profit was -674.1 yuan/ton (-191.4), and PDH - based PP production profit was -3207.4 yuan/ton (-11.8) [1] III. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - Not elaborated in the given content IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL import profit was -817.2 yuan/ton (-361.0), PP import profit was -1265.0 yuan/ton (-145.9), and PP export profit was 310.5 US dollars/ton (+189.9) [1] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profits - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 38.9% (+3.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 47.2% (+1.7%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.1% (+0.9%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 63.4% (+1.5%) [2] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Not elaborated in the given content 4. Strategies - Unilateral: Cautiously go long on LLDPE and PP for hedging; - Inter - period: None; - Cross - variety: Cautiously shrink the spread of LL05 - PP05 when it is high [5]

Group 1: Report Information - Report Name: Guantong Futures Research Report - Polyolefin Weekly [1] - Author: Su Miaoda [1] - Release Date: March 16, 2026 [1] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - Polyolefin prices are likely to rise and difficult to fall in the near term, and attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption of production after the Spring Festival and the situation in the Middle East [3] Group 4: Market Analysis Supply Side - Plastic开工率下降至87.5%左右，处于中性水平；PP开工率下降至75.5%左右，处于偏低水平 [3][13] - 2026年1月，巴斯夫（广东）50万吨/年的FDPE和裕龙石化30万吨/年的LDPE/EVA新增产能投产，一季度已无新增产能计划投产 [3] Demand Side - 截至3月13日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升5.21个百分点至33.83%，春节假期结束第三周，下游陆续复产，但还未恢复至节前水平，整体PE下游开工率呈季节性变动 [3][20] - 截至3月13日当周，PP下游开工率环比回落0.16个百分点至45.71%，春节假期结束第三周，下游对高价原料接受度不高，需求恢复缓慢，但拉丝主力下游塑料开工率继续回升2.88个百分点至40.54% [3][20] Cost Side - 虽然IEA宣布释放4亿桶石油储备，但交付速度较慢，加上霍尔木兹海峡多艘船只遭袭，伊朗最高领袖声明将继续封锁霍尔木兹海峡，富查伊拉油港等已经遭受了伊朗袭击，原油价格继续反弹 [3] Inventory - 周五石化早库环比增加2万吨至82万吨，较去年农历同期高了4.5万吨，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性水平 [28] Price - 塑料和PP强势上涨 [4] - 基差大幅波动，现货价格涨幅超过期货价格涨幅，05合约基差略上涨至-53元/吨，仍处于偏低水平 [24] Market Impact - 聚烯烃国内自身供需格局有所改善，化工反内卷仍有预期，中东局势提振能源化工 [3] - 伊朗PE进口占中国总进口量约8%，占国内产量约3%，整个中东地区进口占国内产量约20%，中东地区PE产能占全球15%以上，PP不依赖中东进口货源，但上游依赖中东液化石油气和原油，中东地区PP产能占全球9%，中东聚烯烃出口占全球聚烯烃出口约25%，影响国际价格和供给 [3] - 原料的短缺使得国内外烯烃装置降负增加，国内标品货源偏紧，下游出现高价抵触情绪，现货成交较弱 [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The domestic supply - demand pattern of polyolefins has improved. With the expectation of anti - involution in the chemical industry and the boost from the Middle East situation on energy chemicals, polyolefins are expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to the progress of downstream resumption after the festival and the development of the Middle East situation [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Plastics and PP oscillated downward [5] 3.2 Plastic and PP Operating Rates - Plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, at a moderately high level; PP operating rate dropped to around 79%, at a relatively low level [3][15] 3.3 Plastic and PP Downstream Operating Rates - As of the week of March 6, PE downstream operating rate increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week, and PP downstream operating rate rebounded by 9.13 percentage points to 45.87% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream production resumed gradually but had not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes [3][22] 3.4 Plastic Basis - The spot price increase was less than the futures price increase. The basis of the 05 contract slightly dropped to - 241 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [25] 3.5 Plastic and PP Inventories - During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. As of Friday, the early petrochemical inventory decreased by 500 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period last lunar year. Currently, petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level compared to recent years [29] 3.6 Cost and New Capacity - Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Strait of Hormuz was blocked, oil - producing countries in the Middle East were forced to cut production, and crude oil prices rose significantly, which significantly boosted polyolefins. New capacities of 500,000 tons/year of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE and 300,000 tons/year of Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA were put into production in January 2026, and there are no plans for new capacity to be put into production in the first quarter [3] 3.7 Market Conditions of Agricultural Films - After the Lantern Festival, downstream factories resumed work, and rigid demand was released intensively. Agricultural film prices in North and East China increased, while those in South China remained stable [3]

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2) Core View - The domestic supply - demand pattern of plastics has improved. With expectations of the chemical industry counter - involution and the situation in the Middle East boosting the energy - chemical sector, plastics are expected to show a moderately strong oscillation. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday resumption of production progress of downstream industries [1]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs [Market Analysis] - On March 6, new maintenance devices such as Fujian United's full - density line 1 were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level. The new capacities of BASF (Guangdong) FDPE (500,000 tons/year) and Yulong Petrochemical LDPE/EVA (300,000 tons/year) were put into production in January 2026, and there are no new capacity plans for the first quarter. The downstream resumption of production is slow, and the procurement intention is weak. The prices of agricultural films in North and East China have risen, while those in South China are stable [1]. - The conflict between the US, Israel and Iran has led to blocked navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a sharp increase in crude oil prices, which significantly boosts plastics. Iran's PE imports account for about 8% of China's total imports and about 3% of domestic production, while the entire Middle East region's imports account for about 20% of domestic production [1]. [Futures and Spot Market Quotes] - Futures: The 2605 plastic futures contract increased in positions and oscillated upward, with a minimum price of 7,360 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 7,695 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7,691 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 3.88%. The open interest increased by 18,481 lots to 409,024 lots [2]. - Spot: Most PE spot markets rose, with price changes ranging from +0 to +400 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 7,470 - 8,170 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9,980 - 10,780 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7,600 - 9,000 yuan/ton [3]. [Fundamental Tracking] - Supply: On March 6, new maintenance devices were added, and the plastic operating rate dropped to around 90%, which is at a moderately high level [1][4]. - Demand: As of the week of March 6, the PE downstream operating rate increased by 10.4 percentage points to 28.62% week - on - week. After the Spring Festival, downstream industries gradually resumed production but have not returned to pre - holiday levels, showing seasonal changes [1][4]. - Inventory: During the Spring Festival, petrochemical inventory increased by 480,000 tons to 940,000 tons. After the Spring Festival, inventory has been decreasing. As of Friday, petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 820,000 tons, 60,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year, and is currently at a neutral level compared to recent years [1][4]. - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 05 contract rose above $85 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene increased by $50 per ton to $850 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene increased by $50 per ton to $820 per ton week - on - week [4].

Project Development - The construction of the daylight greenhouse industrial park in Zhongshan Village, Liangzhou District, is progressing rapidly, with plans to complete it by mid-March. The project is expected to employ around 50 workers during construction and over 200 villagers upon completion [3]. - The total investment for the Zhongshan Village daylight greenhouse project is 6.4 million yuan, which includes the construction of 65,000 square meters of steel frame greenhouses and supporting infrastructure such as water, electricity, and roads [3]. Industry Performance - The production atmosphere at Tianzhu Xinzhehua Silicon Carbide Co., Ltd. is described as vibrant, with fully automated production lines operating at full capacity, producing high-quality silicon carbide products. The company has an annual production capacity of 30,000 tons of high-density silicon carbide [6][7]. - The company aims to achieve a production value of over 100 million yuan and pay over 2 million yuan in taxes by 2025, indicating strong growth potential in the silicon carbide market [6]. Agricultural Preparation - Various agricultural departments in Wuwei City are actively preparing for the spring farming season, ensuring adequate supply of agricultural materials. As of now, 12,000 tons of various fertilizers have been procured and stored [10][11]. - The local supply cooperatives are extending their operating hours and offering services like online ordering and home delivery to facilitate farmers in purchasing necessary agricultural supplies [11]. Regulatory Measures - Wuwei City has intensified market regulation for agricultural materials, conducting inspections on 160 enterprises and distributing over 1,200 promotional materials to combat counterfeit products and protect farmers' rights [12].

Core Viewpoint - Guangdong province is actively preparing for spring farming, focusing on early rice seedling cultivation and establishing new centralized seedling centers to ensure a successful agricultural year [2][3][4]. Group 1: Agricultural Preparation - Over 13 million acres of early rice seedlings are being cultivated in Guangdong, with 175 new centralized seedling centers established [2]. - Farmers are seizing favorable weather conditions to prepare fields, ensuring a solid foundation for agricultural production in the new year [3][4]. - The use of modern agricultural machinery, such as tractors and drones, is enhancing the efficiency of spring farming operations [10][12]. Group 2: Crop Management and Soil Health - Farmers are implementing green manure practices, such as planting purple vetch and rapeseed, to improve soil quality and reduce fertilizer usage [15][17]. - The agricultural plan for 2026 in Qingyuan includes 9,582 acres of food crops, with a focus on rice, sweet potatoes, and corn, alongside over 10,700 acres of various vegetables [21][22]. - The cost of rice planting is expected to be reduced to 780 yuan per acre, aiming for both cost reduction and yield improvement [23]. Group 3: Community Engagement and Support - In Yunfu, community efforts are focused on clearing irrigation channels and preparing for spring farming, with local residents actively participating in these initiatives [44][50]. - The Yunfu Agricultural Production Materials Circulation Association is mobilizing resources to ensure a steady supply of seeds, fertilizers, and pesticides for farmers [55][56]. - The establishment of a "spring farming preparation vanguard team" in Yunfu is enhancing community involvement in agricultural activities [48][54]. Group 4: Technological Advancements - The Guangdong First Field core area in Jiangmen is utilizing smart agricultural technology for seedling cultivation, with a capacity to supply 220,000 trays of high-quality seedlings annually [64][71]. - The integration of digital control systems in seedling centers is significantly improving seedling uniformity and supporting mechanized transplanting [70][72]. - Jiangmen is committed to leveraging digital technology to enhance agricultural productivity and ensure food security [72][74]. Group 5: Resource Management - In Heyuan, modern seedling greenhouses are being utilized to ensure a continuous supply of quality seedlings for local farmers [80][81]. - Agricultural resource companies in Longchuan are preparing sufficient stocks of fertilizers, pesticides, and seeds to meet the upcoming spring farming demands [83][85]. - The distribution of agricultural materials is being organized to ensure timely delivery to farmers, facilitating their preparation for the busy farming season [86].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The fundamentals of the polyethylene (PE) market show a situation of strong supply and weak demand. The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - For polypropylene (PP), geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,668 yuan/ton (-109), and that of the PP main contract is 6,675 yuan/ton (-45). The LL spot prices in North China and East China are 6,580 yuan/ton (-100) and 6,660 yuan/ton (-120) respectively. The PP spot price in East China is 6,650 yuan/ton (-30). The LL basis in North China is -88 yuan/ton (+9), the LL basis in East China is -8 yuan/ton (-11), and the PP basis in East China is -25 yuan/ton (+15) [1]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 88.0% (-0.5%), and the PP operating rate is 75.5% (-0.4%) [1]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -215.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), the PP oil - based production profit is -555.7 yuan/ton (+13.9), and the PDH - based PP production profit is -467.7 yuan/ton (+20.3) [1]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -42.0 yuan/ton (-17.3), the PP import profit is -390.5 yuan/ton (-58.0), and the PP export profit is -62.5 US dollars/ton (-8.2) [2]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 10.1% (-14.7%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 24.7% (+4.4%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 29.3% (+5.2%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 36.7% (-6.0%) [2]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The supply pressure is expected to increase, and the inventory is expected to rise. The demand side has limited restocking, and attention should be paid to the destocking rhythm after the downstream resumes work. The short - term cost support is strong, which boosts the price [3]. - **PP**: Geopolitical disturbances push up oil prices and propane prices, increasing the cost support. The supply is reduced in the short term, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term cost increase still boosts the price. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and the destocking rhythm of the upstream and middle - stream after the downstream resumes work [4]. 3.3 Strategy - **Unilateral**: Wait and see; in the short term, it mainly fluctuates with the cost side [5]. - **Inter - period**: Cautiously shrink the L05 - 09 spread when it is high [5]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously shrink the L - PP spread when it is high [5].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the proactive measures taken by agricultural companies in Xinjiang to ensure sufficient supply of agricultural materials for the upcoming spring planting season, emphasizing the importance of quality and timely delivery in supporting agricultural production. Group 1: Supply Chain and Production - Xinjiang Agricultural Development Group's fertilizer production facility is operating at full capacity, achieving a stable daily output of 200 tons of fertilizer to meet spring planting demands [2] - The company has implemented strict quality control measures, including sampling and testing of each batch of products to ensure safety and reliability for consumers [2] Group 2: Storage and Logistics - The Xinjiang Jiangnan Hope Agricultural Development Group has established multiple storage nodes in the region, accumulating over 80,000 tons of agricultural materials, with a target of 100,000 tons by the end of March [3] - Daily inbound agricultural materials at the company are maintained at 400 to 500 tons, with efficient transportation via dedicated railway services to enhance supply efficiency [2][3] Group 3: Market Regulation and Coordination - The agricultural department of the region is actively coordinating with production companies and distributors to manage the transportation, storage, and distribution of agricultural materials, ensuring smooth supply channels [3] - Increased market supervision and quality inspections are being enforced to combat the sale of counterfeit agricultural materials, thereby protecting market order and consumer rights [3] Group 4: Overall Preparedness for Spring Planting - The region emphasizes early preparation and robust material reserves to support agricultural production, with a focus on quality control and efficient service to ensure readiness for the spring planting season [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall macro - sentiment has weakened, and the plastic futures market is in a range - bound oscillation. The geopolitical risk premium has boosted oil prices, strengthening the cost support for plastics. However, the fundamentals of plastics are weak, with strong supply and weak demand, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation in the upper - middle reaches after the holiday. For PP, the cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak, and attention should be paid to the inventory accumulation and macro guidance during the off - season [4][5]. - The strategy suggests a wait - and - see approach for single - sided trading, no operation for inter - period trading, and a cautious shorting of the L - PP spread when it is high [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market News and Important Data - **Price and Basis**: The closing price of the L main contract is 6,734 yuan/ton (-53), and that of the PP main contract is 6,648 yuan/ton (-45). The spot prices and basis of different regions and varieties have also changed [2]. - **Upstream Supply**: The PE operating rate is 87.3% (+1.4%), and the PP operating rate is 75.9% (+2.0%) [2]. - **Production Profit**: The PE oil - based production profit is -211.6 yuan/ton (-46.4), and the PP oil - based production profit is -471.6 yuan/ton (-46.4). The PDH - based PP production profit is -546.4 yuan/ton (-29.4) [2]. - **Import and Export**: The LL import profit is -109.0 yuan/ton (-2.3), the PP import profit is -253.8 yuan/ton (-2.4), and the PP export profit is -53.7 US dollars/ton (+10.3) [3]. - **Downstream Demand**: The PE downstream agricultural film operating rate is 24.7% (-5.4%), the PE downstream packaging film operating rate is 20.3% (-18.5%), the PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate is 27.9% (-8.9%), and the PP downstream BOPP film operating rate is 60.3% (-4.3%) [3]. 3.2 Market Analysis - **PE**: The market is affected by macro - sentiment and fundamentals. The supply pressure remains high due to the high operating rate and more imported resources. The demand is in the off - season, and the inventory in the upper - middle reaches may accumulate after the holiday [4]. - **PP**: The cost support exists in the short - term, but the supply - demand structure is still weak. The supply pressure is acceptable in the short - term, and the demand is expected to decline seasonally, and the inventory accumulation situation should be concerned [5]. 3.3 Strategy - **Single - sided**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach as the oil price and raw material propane are strong, providing cost support, and the short - term futures market will oscillate widely following the cost and macro - sentiment [6]. - **Inter - period**: No operation [6]. - **Inter - variety**: Cautiously short the L - PP spread when it is high [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - Plastic supply and demand pattern improves limitedly, but there are still expectations for the chemical industry to counter the involution. The upstream petrochemical inventory is low, and the basis has been repaired. Due to the long Spring Festival holiday, the risk of unilateral positions is high, so it is recommended to hold no positions for the holiday. Since there is new plastic production capacity put into operation recently, the operating rate is higher than that of PP, and the concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, it is advisable to hold a light - position short L - PP spread [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, which is at a moderately high level. As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally. Petrochemical de - stocking in February was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years. The cost of crude oil rebounded due to market concerns about military conflicts between the US and Iran. New plastic production capacities were put into operation in January 2026. The plastic operating rate increased slightly recently. The concentrated demand for plastic film has not started yet, and it is expected that the downstream operating rate will continue to decline [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - **Futures**: The plastic 2605 contract opened higher, then decreased in position and oscillated downward. The lowest price was 6732 yuan/ton, the highest was 6834 yuan/ton, and it finally closed at 6734 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, with a decline of 0.72%. The position decreased by 2602 lots to 501315 lots [2]. - **Spot**: Some prices in the PE spot market declined, with the price change ranging from - 100 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was quoted at 6600 - 7020 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8280 - 8960 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6760 - 7990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On February 12, the number of overhauled devices changed little, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 92%, at a moderately high level [4]. - **Demand**: As of the week of February 6, the downstream operating rate of PE decreased by 4.03 percentage points to 33.73% week - on - week. Entering the Spring Festival holiday, orders and raw material inventory of agricultural film continued to decrease, and packaging film orders also decreased. The overall downstream operating rate of PE declined seasonally [4]. - **Inventory**: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 440,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons lower than the same period of last lunar year. Petrochemical de - stocking was acceptable, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a low level in recent years [4]. - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 04 contract rose above $69 per barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $695 per ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $675 per ton week - on - week [4].