【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2025年11月27日 【行情分析】 11月27日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。11月石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成 本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响， 另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新 增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE和70万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略 有下降。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单稳定，旺季成色不及预期，温度下降，北方需求开始减少，农膜 价格开始下跌，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，贸易商对后市谨慎， 普遍降价积极出货。供需格局整体未改，加上成本支撑减弱，预计近期塑料仍以偏弱震荡为主。 【期现行情】 期 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月26日 【行情分析】 11月26日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。11月石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成 本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响， 另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新 增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE和70万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略 有下降。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单稳定，旺季成色不及预期，农膜价格稳定，温度下降，北方需求 开始减少，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游企业采购意愿不足，刚需为主，贸易商对后市谨慎，普 遍降价积极出货。供需格局整体未改，加上成本支撑减弱，预计近期塑料仍以偏弱震荡为主。 【期现行情】 期货方 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月25日 【行情分析】 塑料2601合约减仓震荡下行，最低价6758元/吨，最高价6822元/吨，最终收盘于6762元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，跌幅0.28%。持仓量减少9070手至488359手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-80至+50元/吨之间，LLDPE报6770-7150元/吨，LDPE报 8640-9280元/吨，HDPE报6930-7600元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月25日，检修装置变动不大，塑料开工率维持在89%左右，目前开工率处于中性水平。截至11 月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定， 处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工 率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端， 俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特 朗普政府极力促成俄 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --聚烯烃周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2025年11月24日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 塑料开工率上涨至89.5%左右，处于中性水平。PP开工率上涨至83.5%左右，处于中性偏低水平。PE下游开工率 环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季，农膜订单依然稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再 次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增加，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。PP下游开工率环比上涨 0.29个百分点至53.57%，处于历年同期偏低水平。但其中拉丝主力下游塑编开工率持平于44.24%，塑编订单环比略 有减少，略低于去年同期。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦 克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油产量造成影响，另外特朗普政府极力促成俄乌停火，泽连 斯基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。另外，新增产能，新增产 ...

每经记者｜张蕊 每经编辑｜陈旭 I 对此，农业农村部种业管理司司长张延秋详细介绍了防疫期间春耕备耕农资的供应情况。常年情况下，我国种子、农药、化肥、农膜都处于供大于求，可供 应总量要多1.5倍到2倍以上。目前主要问题是出在农资供应的产业链上，最突出的是运输阻断问题，生产的农资运不出去，需要加工的配料进不来。 前不久，交通运输部、农业农村部印发了《关于做好春季农业生产物资运输服务保障的紧急通知》，将农资纳入绿色通道，由企业自行网上打印通行证，确 保农资运输车辆不停车、不检查、不收费，优先运行。"从目前情况看，主动脉基本贯通，从25个省份1500多个农业县反馈情况看，县内乡镇道路通畅的占 到78%。"张延秋说。 3月5日，国务院联防联控机制就抓好春季农业生产工作情况召开新闻发布会。 每经记者在发布会上提问 图片来源：央视新闻截屏画面 "春雷响，万物长"，今天是24节气中的惊蛰，全国春耕备耕已经进入了关键时节。《每日经济新闻》记者在发布会现场提问：此前农业农村部把化肥、农药 等农资纳入国务院联防联控机制生活物资保障范围，列入复工复产重点企业名单，目前这些农资企业开工率如何？是否能够保障重点地区春耕备耕用肥用药 的需 ...

徐绍祖（联系人） PE农膜订单好于预期， 高产量压力暂时缓解 聚烯烃周报 2025/11/22 18665881888 xushaozu@wkqh.cn 从业资格号：F03115061 交易咨询号： Z0022675 CONTENTS 目录 01 周度评估及策略推荐 04 聚乙烯供给端 07 聚丙烯供给端 02 期现市场 05 聚乙烯库存&进出口 08 聚丙烯库存&进出口 03 成本端 06 聚乙烯需求端 09 聚丙烯需求端 01 周度评估及策略推荐 周度评估及策略推荐 聚烯烃周度策略 【行情资讯】 政策端：美国大型科技公司财报好于预期，资本市场止跌后大幅反弹，大宗商品市场跟涨。 估值：聚乙烯周度涨幅（期货＞成本＞现货），聚丙烯周度涨幅（成本＞现货＞期货）。 成本端：上周WTI原油上涨1.62%，Brent原油上涨1.28%，煤价无变动0.00%，甲醇下跌-4.52%，乙烯下跌-0.47%，丙烯上涨2.94%， 丙烷上涨2.52%。成本端支撑尚存。 供应端：PE产能利用率83.77%，环比上涨0.06%，同比去年上涨2.17%，较5年同期下降-7.82%。PP产能利用率77.71%，环比下降- 3.85%，同 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡下行 发布日期：2025年11月21日 【行情分析】 11月21日，中天合创LDPE 1线等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89.5%左右，目前开工率 处于中性水平。截至11月21日当周，PE下游开工率环比上升0.20个百分点至44.69%，农膜仍处于旺季， 农膜订单依然稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存再次小幅增加，包装膜订单转而小幅增 加，整体PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中 性偏高水平。成本端，俄罗斯副总理诺瓦克表示，美国及西方最新实施的制裁并未对俄罗斯的石油 产量造成影响，另外有消息称特朗普政府秘密与俄罗斯协调一项结束乌克兰冲突的新框架，泽连斯 基表明对和谈持开放态度，原油价格下跌。供应上，新增产能50万吨/年的埃克森美孚（惠州）LDPE 和70万吨/年的中石油广西石化近期投产。塑料开工率略有上升。农膜进入旺季尾声，订单稳定，旺 季成色不及预期，农膜价格稳定，温度下降，北方需求开始减少，预计后续下游开工率下降。下游 企业采购意愿不足，贸易商对后市谨慎，普遍降价积极出货，塑料产业还未有反内卷实际政策落地， 当然反 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoint of the Report The supply - demand pattern of the plastic industry remains unchanged. Despite previous price rebounds driven by cost increases and downstream peak seasons, it is expected that plastics will mainly experience weak and volatile trends in the near future [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 20, the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level. As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [1][4]. - The end of the US government shutdown and the strengthening of refined oil crack spreads in Europe and the US led to a rebound in crude oil prices after a decline. However, OPEC adjusted the global oil market from a shortage of 400,000 barrels per day in Q3 2025 to a surplus of 500,000 barrels per day, limiting the increase in crude oil prices [1]. - New production capacities of ExxonMobil (Huizhou) LDPE (500,000 tons/year) and PetroChina Guangxi Petrochemical (700,000 tons/year) have been put into operation recently. The agricultural film peak season is coming to an end, downstream operating rates are falling, and downstream enterprises' purchasing willingness is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastic industry yet [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The plastic 2601 contract fluctuated with a reduction in positions. The lowest price was 6,779 yuan/ton, the highest was 6,855 yuan/ton, and it closed at 6,835 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average, with a gain of 0.32%. The position volume decreased by 11,929 lots to 516,737 lots [2]. Spot - Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6,790 - 7,220 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8,750 - 9,280 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 6,950 - 7,990 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 20, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastic operating rate remained at around 89%, at a neutral level [4]. - Demand: As of the week of November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the peak season with stable orders and raw material inventory, but the packaging film orders decreased slightly. The overall PE downstream operating rate is at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4]. - Petrochemical inventory: On Thursday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 690,000 tons week - on - week, 55,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemical inventory reduction has slowed down, and the current inventory is at a neutral - to - high level in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64 per barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $720 per ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $730 per ton week - on - week [4].

【冠通期货研究报告】 塑料日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2025年11月19日 【行情分析】 期货方面： 塑料2601合约减仓震荡上行，最低价6781元/吨，最高价6838元/吨，最终收盘于6833元/ 吨，在60日均线下方，涨幅0.22%。持仓量减少19678手至528666手。 现货方面： PE现货市场多数下跌，涨跌幅在-50至+0元/吨之间，LLDPE报6790-7220元/吨，LDPE报8750- 9280元/吨，HDPE报6950-7990元/吨。 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 11月19日，宁夏宝丰全密度等检修装置重启开车，塑料开工率上涨至89%左右，目前开工率处于 中性水平。截至11月14日当周，PE下游开工率环比下降0.36个百分点至44.49%，农膜仍处于旺季，农 膜订单稳定，处于近年同期中性水平，农膜原料库存继续稳定，但包装膜订单继续小幅减少，整体 PE下游开工率仍处于近年同期偏低位水平。石化去库放缓，目前石化库存处于近年同期中性偏高水 平。成本端，美国政府停摆结束，欧美成品油裂解价差持续走强，原油价格跌后反弹，但欧佩克将 2025 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - Due to the unchanged overall supply - demand pattern, plastics are expected to show a weak and volatile trend in the near term [1] Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level. As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years. The crude oil price has limited increase due to the expected end of the US government shutdown and the adjustment of the global oil supply from shortage to surplus by OPEC. New production capacities have been put into operation, and the plastics operating rate has slightly increased. Although the agricultural film is in the peak season, its performance is not as expected, the downstream operating rate has declined, and the purchasing willingness of downstream enterprises is insufficient. Traders are cautious about the future market and are actively selling at reduced prices. There is no actual anti - involution policy in the plastics industry, which will affect the subsequent market [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The plastics 2601 contract decreased by 0.95% with increased positions, closing at 6785 yuan/ton, below the 60 - day moving average. The trading volume increased by 6049 lots to 548344 lots [2] - Spot: Most PE spot markets declined, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 0 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 6790 - 7270 yuan/ton, LDPE at 8750 - 9380 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7020 - 7990 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - Supply: On November 18, the restart of maintenance devices such as Sinochem Quanzhou's HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 88%, which is at a neutral level [4] - Demand: As of the week ending November 14, the PE downstream operating rate decreased by 0.36 percentage points to 44.49% week - on - week. The overall PE downstream operating rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [4] - Inventory: On Tuesday, the petrochemical early - morning inventory decreased by 10,000 tons to 710,000 tons week - on - week, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. Petrochemicals are de - stocking normally, and the current petrochemical inventory is at a neutral level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw Materials: The Brent crude oil 01 contract fluctuated around $64/barrel. The Northeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $725/ton week - on - week, and the Southeast Asian ethylene price remained flat at $735/ton week - on - week [4]