聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-26 成本支撑走强，聚烯烃小幅走高 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为332.5元/吨（+17.9），PP油制生产利润为-247.5元/吨（+17.9），PDH制PP生产利 润为88.2元/吨（+12.0）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-44.2元/吨（+23.4），PP进口利润为-556.9元/吨（+3.4），PP出口利润为36.6美元/吨（-0.4）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为14.5%（+0.7%），PE下游包装膜开工率为49.9%（+0.8%），PP下游塑编开工 率为42.0%（+0.6%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.7%（-0.5%）。 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7423元/吨（+43），PP主力合约收盘价为7074元/吨（+36），LL华北现货为7270 元/吨（+0），LL华东现货为7320元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为-153元/吨（-43），LL 华东基差为-103元/吨（-43）， PP华东基差为-94元/吨（-36）。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为78.7%（-5.5%），PP开 ...

塑料产业日报 2025-08-25 本方面，美联储9月降息预期升温，俄乌会晤推进有限，近期国际油价反弹，但OPEC+增产影响抑制油价上 行空间。技术上，L2601关注7450附近压力。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 里木石化、茂名石化计划重启，产量、产能利用率预计环比上升。农膜需求季节性提升，但由于农产品利 数据来源第三方，观点仅供参考。市场有风险，投资需谨慎！ 润收窄，棚膜订单跟进有限。此外，高温、强降雨天气频发也对棚膜需求造成扰动。包装膜刚需为主。成 研究员: 林静宜 期货从业资格号F03139610 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021558 助理研究员: 徐天泽 期货从业资格号F03133092 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 ...

聚烯烃日报 | 2025-08-21 7月聚烯烃进出口量维持增长 市场要闻与重要数据 价格与基差方面，L主力合约收盘价为7347元/吨（+40），PP主力合约收盘价为7056元/吨（+40），LL华北现货为7180 元/吨（-40），LL华东现货为7300元/吨（+0），PP华东现货为6980元/吨（-20），LL华北基差为-167元/吨（-80），LL 华东基差为-47元/吨（-40）， PP华东基差为-76元/吨（-60）。 策略 单边：中性； 跨期：09-01反套； 跨品种：无。 风险 宏观经济政策，原油价格波动，新增产能投产进度。 上游供应方面，PE开工率为84.2%（+0.1%），PP开工率为77.9%（+0.6%）。 生产利润方面，PE油制生产利润为455.9元/吨（+59.4），PP油制生产利润为-84.1元/吨（+59.4），PDH制PP生产利 润为178.2元/吨（+6.6）。 进出口方面，LL进口利润为-115.4元/吨（-4.0），PP进口利润为-545.0元/吨（-47.2），PP出口利润为35.1美元/吨（+0.5）。 下游需求方面，PE下游农膜开工率为13.8%（+0.8%），PE ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Inter - variety: None [3] 2. Core View - PE's supply is recovering with the restart of previously shut - down plants and new capacity output, while PP's current low overall operating rate will face greater supply - side pressure in the future. Upstream and mid - stream inventories of polyolefins are accumulating, cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand is gradually transitioning to the peak season with a positive long - term outlook [2] 3. Summary by Directory I. Polyolefin Basis Structure - Figures include the trend of the plastic futures main contract, LL East China - main contract basis, the trend of the polypropylene futures main contract, and PP East China - main contract basis [8][11] II. Production Profit and Operating Rate - Figures cover LL production profit (crude oil - based), PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit (crude oil - based), PP production profit (PDH - based), PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - based PP capacity utilization [19][14][18] III. Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Figures involve HD injection molding - LL East China, HD blow molding - LL East China, HD film - LL East China, LD East China - LL, PP low - melt co - polymer - drawn wire East China, and PP homopolymer injection molding - drawn wire East China [25][33][34] IV. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Figures include LL import profit, LL US Gulf FOB - China CFR, LL Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, LL Europe FD - China CFR, PP import profit, PP export profit (to Southeast Asia), PP homopolymer injection molding US Gulf FOB - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Southeast Asia CFR - China CFR, PP homopolymer injection molding Northwest Europe FOB - China CFR, and LL export profit [38][43][50] V. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - Figures are about PE downstream agricultural film operating rate, PE downstream packaging film operating rate, PE downstream stretch film - LL - 2300, PP downstream woven fabric operating rate, PP downstream BOPP film operating rate, PP downstream injection molding operating rate, PP downstream woven fabric production profit margin, and PP downstream BOPP production profit margin [60][59][68] VI. Polyolefin Inventory - Figures contain PE oil - based enterprise inventory, PE coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PE trader inventory, PE port inventory, PP oil - based enterprise inventory, PP coal - chemical enterprise inventory, PP trader inventory, and PP port inventory [70][73][79] 4. Market Data - **Price and Basis**: L main contract closed at 7314 yuan/ton (+24), PP main contract at 7095 yuan/ton (+33), LL North China spot at 7220 yuan/ton (+0), LL East China spot at 7280 yuan/ton (+0), PP East China spot at 7040 yuan/ton (+0), LL North China basis at - 94 yuan/ton (-24), LL East China basis at - 34 yuan/ton (-24), PP East China basis at - 55 yuan/ton (-33) [1] - **Upstream Supply**: PE operating rate was 84.1% (+3.0%), PP operating rate was 77.3% (+0.4%) [1] - **Production Profit**: PE oil - based production profit was 373.7 yuan/ton (-12.5), PP oil - based production profit was - 106.3 yuan/ton (-12.5), PDH - based PP production profit was 208.1 yuan/ton (-47.6) [1] - **Import and Export**: LL import profit was - 71.4 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP import profit was - 505.8 yuan/ton (-0.2), PP export profit was 30.2 US dollars/ton (+0.0) [1] - **Downstream Demand**: PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.1% (+0.4%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.3% (+0.6%), PP downstream woven fabric operating rate was 41.1% (+0.0%), PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 60.8% (+0.0%) [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights recent stock trading activities of Wang Xiaojian, a director of Nongxin Technology, indicating a trend of share reduction and providing insights into the company's financial performance and business operations [1][3][4]. Company Overview - Nongxin Technology's main business includes the research, development, and sales of pesticides, fertilizers, agricultural films, agricultural tools, and chemical raw materials, as well as agricultural technology services and sales/rental of agricultural machinery and drones [2]. Financial Performance - As of December 31, 2024, Nongxin Technology reported revenues from various product segments: insecticides generated 243 million yuan (37.42%), fungicides 237 million yuan (36.47%), herbicides 101 million yuan (15.49%), and other revenues 68.94 million yuan (10.62%) [2]. - The company's total market capitalization is 2.166 billion yuan [4]. Shareholder Activity - Wang Xiaojian has been actively reducing his shareholding in the company through various transactions, with the most recent being a sale of 41,200 shares at an average price of 21.55 yuan, totaling 887,900 yuan, leaving him with 9.7208 million shares [1][3]. - A detailed table of Wang Xiaojian's share transactions shows multiple reductions in shareholding over a short period, indicating a potential shift in his investment strategy [3].

Report Information - Report Name: Polyolefin Daily Report [1] - Date: August 7, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The futures market opened higher and fluctuated upwards, boosting market sentiment. Spot prices fluctuated slightly, and downstream buyers replenished stocks according to orders. However, the supply pressure continued, and new PE and PP production facilities were planned to be put into operation in the third quarter. The demand was weak and needed improvement, and the downstream operating load remained low overall. It was expected that the demand would gradually emerge from the off - season in the second half of the month, but the downstream enterprises mainly maintained a low - inventory strategy, and the driving force for active replenishment was limited. The policy - driven market led the polyolefins to follow, but the loose fundamental pattern would continue to restrict their upward space. After the digestion of the anti - involution sentiment, the polyolefins would return to a weak and volatile operation [6] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Outlook - **Futures Market**: The L2509 contract of linear low - density polyethylene (LLDPE) opened higher, fluctuated upwards during the session, and finally closed at 7,321 yuan/ton, up 33 yuan/ton (0.45%). The trading volume was 167,000 lots, and the open interest decreased by 10,020 to 291,496 lots. The PP main contract closed at 7,078 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan (0.17%), and the open interest decreased by 7,127 to 251,400 lots [6] - **Supply**: In the third quarter, new PE production facilities of Jilin Petrochemical, ExxonMobil Huizhou, and Guangxi Petrochemical were planned to be put into operation. The second - phase project of Ningbo Daxie with a total annual production capacity of 900,000 tons was expected to be launched, which would have a significant impact on the supply side [6] - **Demand**: The downstream operating load remained low overall. Although the operating rate of the agricultural film industry rebounded from a low level, the demand followed up slowly. The orders in the construction field were mediocre, and the operating rates of the pipe and plastic weaving industries were at historical lows in the same period. The demand for daily - use injection - molded products increased slightly month - on - month [6] 2. Industry News - **Inventory**: On August 6, 2025, the inventory level of major producers was 785,000 tons, a decrease of 20,000 tons (2.48%) from the previous working day. The inventory in the same period last year was 810,000 tons [7] - **PE Market**: The PE market prices partially increased. The LLDPE prices in North China were in the range of 7,170 - 7,450 yuan/ton, in East China 7,230 - 7,650 yuan/ton, and in South China 7,320 - 7,650 yuan/ton [7] - **Propylene Market**: The propylene market price in Shandong increased significantly. As of the 12 - o'clock closing, the reference price was 6,250 - 6,270 yuan/ton, an increase of 85 yuan/ton from the previous day. The temporary shutdown of some supply facilities boosted the operators' sentiment, and enterprises mainly raised their offers. The downstream followed up actively, the premium range of actual orders expanded, and the trading center shifted significantly upwards [7] - **PP Market**: The PP market was stable with a slight upward trend, and some prices increased by 20 - 30 yuan/ton. The mainstream prices of drawn PP in North China were in the range of 6,940 - 7,080 yuan/ton, in East China 7,000 - 7,130 yuan/ton, and in South China 6,960 - 7,150 yuan/ton [7] 3. Data Overview - The report presented multiple charts, including the LLDPE basis, PP basis, LLDPE - PP price spread, crude oil futures main - contract settlement price, inventory of two major oil companies, and the year - on - year increase or decrease rate of the two - oil inventory, with data sources from Wind and Zhuochuang Information [9][16][17]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; - Inter - period: PL01 - 05 reverse spread; - Inter - variety: Long PL2601 and short PP2509 [4] 2. Core Viewpoints - Macro policies such as anti - involution and elimination of backward production capacity continue to boost the propylene and polyolefin markets. The elimination of backward production capacity in the propylene industry is expected to shift the domestic propylene market from an oversupply to a tight - balance situation. However, the current overall propylene operating rate is at a seasonally low level, and downstream demand has limited driving force. For polyolefins, although macro policies boost the market, the cost - side support is weak, and downstream demand remains weak during the seasonal off - season [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Propylene 3.1.1 Propylene Basis Structure - It includes the market prices of propylene in East China and Shandong [10][12] 3.1.2 Propylene Production Profit and Operating Rate - Involves the difference between propylene CFR in China and naphtha CFR in Japan, propylene capacity utilization rate, PDH production gross profit and capacity utilization rate, MTO production gross profit, and methanol - to - olefin capacity utilization rate [13][18][22] 3.1.3 Propylene Import and Export Profit - Covers propylene naphtha cracking production gross profit, crude oil refinery capacity utilization rate, and the differences between FOB in South Korea, CFR in Japan, and CFR in Southeast Asia and China CFR, as well as propylene import profit [25][28][33] 3.1.4 Propylene Downstream Profit and Operating Rate - Includes the production profit and operating rate of PP powder, propylene oxide, n - butanol, octanol, acrylic acid, acrylonitrile, and phenol - acetone [35][40][42] 3.1.5 Propylene Inventory - Comprises propylene factory inventory and PP powder factory inventory [59][61] 3.2 Polyolefins 3.2.1 Polyolefin Basis Structure - Involves the trends of plastic and polypropylene futures main contracts, and the basis between LL in East China and the main contract, and PP in East China and the main contract [63][64][70] 3.2.2 Polyolefin Production Profit and Operating Rate - Covers LL production profit from crude oil, PE operating rate, PE weekly output, PE maintenance loss, PP production profit from crude oil and PDH, PP operating rate, PP weekly output, PP maintenance loss, and PDH - made PP capacity utilization rate [71][72][77] 3.2.3 Polyolefin Non - Standard Price Difference - Includes the price differences between HD injection molding, HD blow molding, HD film, LD in East China and LL, and the price differences between PP low - melt copolymer and PP homopolymer injection molding and PP drawing in East China [84][91][92] 3.2.4 Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - Involves LL import profit, the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FD in Europe and China CFR, PP import and export profit, and the differences between FOB in the US Gulf, CFR in Southeast Asia, FOB in Northwest Europe of PP homopolymer injection molding and China CFR [93][97][109] 3.2.5 Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Profit - Includes the operating rates of PE downstream agricultural film, packaging film, and PP downstream woven bags, BOPP film, injection molding, and the production gross profits of PP downstream woven bags and BOPP film [117][120][127] 3.2.6 Polyolefin Inventory - Comprises the inventories of PE and PP in oil - based enterprises, coal - chemical enterprises, traders, and ports [133][134][136]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the plastics industry is "Oscillating Upward" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - The plastics market is expected to experience a strong oscillation in the near future. It is recommended to switch to buying on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread strategy. This is due to factors such as the restart of previously shut - down production facilities, the impact of coal price increases on costs, the current situation of downstream demand, and positive market sentiment driven by government policies [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On July 22, the restart of maintenance devices in Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase II LDPE and Shanghai SECCO HDPE led to the plastics operating rate rising to around 87%, currently at a neutral level. The downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. Although the agricultural film is in the off - season with a slight decrease in orders, packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years. Due to coal production inspections, coal prices have risen significantly. With new production capacity coming on - stream and the restart of maintenance devices, and considering government policies, it is recommended to buy on dips or engage in a 09 - 01 reverse spread [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: The plastics 2509 contract reduced positions and oscillated upward, with a low of 7264 yuan/ton, a high of 7373 yuan/ton, and a final closing price of 7368 yuan/ton, above the 60 - day moving average, up 1.26%. The open interest decreased by 13,406 lots to 394,148 lots [2] - **Spot**: Most of the PE spot market prices rose, with price changes ranging from - 50 to + 50 yuan/ton. LLDPE was reported at 7130 - 7440 yuan/ton, LDPE at 9240 - 9630 yuan/ton, and HDPE at 7660 - 8220 yuan/ton [3] Fundamental Tracking - **Supply**: On July 18, there were few changes in maintenance devices, and the plastics operating rate remained at around 84%, currently at a neutral level [4] - **Demand**: As of the week of July 18, the downstream PE operating rate increased by 0.64 percentage points to 38.51% week - on - week. The agricultural film is in the off - season, with a slight decrease in orders, while packaging film orders increased slightly. The overall downstream PE operating rate is still at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - **Inventory**: Petrochemical early - morning inventory on Tuesday decreased by 30,000 tons to 790,000 tons compared to the previous day, 25,000 tons higher than the same period last year. The de - stocking speed of petrochemicals was slow last week, and petrochemical inventory is at a relatively high level in recent years [4] - **Raw Materials**: The Brent crude oil 09 contract fell to $68/barrel. The price of Northeast Asian ethylene remained flat at $830/ton week - on - week, and the price of Southeast Asian ethylene also remained flat at $820/ton [4]

Group 1 - The private economy is a crucial foundation for high-quality economic development, with Qingzhou City focusing on policy empowerment and innovation-driven strategies to guide private enterprises in accelerating technological innovation and product updates [1] - Shandong Anjiwan Food Co., Ltd. has seen a surge in orders for its star product, ready-to-eat egg products, achieving a production volume of over 40 tons per month, with daily overtime to meet demand [1] - The company has introduced four automated production lines from Japan and developed over 60 varieties of ready-to-eat egg products, filling a gap in the domestic market and increasing the proportion of high-end products to over 70% [1] Group 2 - Shandong Anjiwan Food Co., Ltd. is intensifying market expansion efforts and aims to leverage its industrial advantages to develop more new products, with nearly 60 products currently in its lineup [3] - Qingzhou City is focusing on key industries and existing layouts to cultivate a batch of market entities with precise industrial positioning and complete supporting facilities, while supporting private enterprises in building innovation platforms [3] - A series of supportive policies have been established to boost the confidence of private enterprises, encouraging them to pursue high-end, green, and intelligent directions while enhancing product value [3] Group 3 - Qingzhou Huaguan Plastic Co., Ltd. has introduced multiple high-speed intelligent agricultural film production lines, ensuring stable key indicators such as thickness uniformity and tensile strength [4] - The company is expected to increase production by 20% with the new PO film equipment set to be fully operational by July [4] - By upgrading production equipment and processes, the company has significantly improved product qualification rates and has secured orders extending into August [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - period: None [3] Core Viewpoints - The market trading of macro - positive factors has ended, and the atmosphere of waiting and seeing prevails. Downstream factories have low purchasing sentiment, and most end - users make purchases based on rigid demand. Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and the maintenance loss is on the rise, alleviating the market supply pressure and leading to a slight reduction in production inventory. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East is gradually easing, international oil prices and propane prices are falling, the production profit of PDH - made PP has turned from loss to profit, and the cost - side support has weakened. The downstream demand remains in the seasonal off - season, with the bottom - up recovery of the agricultural film industry's start - up rate and the decline of the plastic weaving industry's start - up rate [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - L主力合约收盘价为7245元/吨（-2），PP主力合约收盘价为7045元/吨（-12），LL华北现货为7180元/吨（-30），LL华东现货为7270元/吨（-20），PP华东现货为7120元/吨（+0），LL华北基差为 - 65元/吨（-28），LL华东基差为25元/吨（-18），PP华东基差为75元/吨（+12） [1] 2. Production Profit and Start - up Rate - PE开工率为79.5%（+3.0%），PP开工率为77.4%（-1.9%）；PE油制生产利润为166.2元/吨（-108.4），PP油制生产利润为 - 243.8元/吨（-108.4），PDH制PP生产利润为300.1元/吨（+0.0） [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data provided in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profits - LL进口利润为 - 109.6元/吨（-10.0），PP进口利润为 - 624.5元/吨（+86.2），PP出口利润为28.3美元/吨（+0.0） [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Start - up and Downstream Profits - PE下游农膜开工率为12.1%（-0.3%），PE下游包装膜开工率为48.4%（+0.5%），PP下游塑编开工率为42.2%（-1.0%），PP下游BOPP膜开工率为60.3%（-0.1%） [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - Upstream petrochemical plants will enter the maintenance season, and production inventory has a slight reduction [2]