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市场供需短期相对平衡 预计工业硅区间震荡为主
Jin Tou Wang· 2025-08-13 07:04
Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with industrial silicon futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.36% to 8695.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Side - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase as the hydropower season progresses in the southwest region, leading to a rise in production from silicon factories [1] - New furnace installations in Sichuan and Yunnan are on the rise, with expectations of a week-on-week production increase in the southwest region [1] - In Xinjiang, while some large factories maintain stable production, smaller silicon plants are less motivated to resume production due to low profit margins from previous low prices, resulting in overall stable production levels [1] Demand Side - There is an anticipated significant increase in the production of polysilicon in August, which will boost demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy sector is operating steadily, while demand remains relatively average; organic silicon also has production increase expectations [1] - Despite a continuous decrease in standard warehouse receipts, the overall industry inventory remains at a high level [1] Market Overview - The overall supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, leading to a relatively balanced supply-demand situation in the short term, although there is still pressure on inventory absorption [1] - Market sentiment has slightly diminished, but related products like coking coal have seen significant price increases, providing support for the lower end of the market [1] - The main contract is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations in the near term, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]