1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - For aluminum, the supply of Middle - Eastern aluminum plants is disturbed again. There are rumors of a 320,000 - ton production cut in Bahrain this week, and news of equipment attacks on EGA and Bahrain Aluminium over the weekend. The potential increase on Monday should be noted. The global aluminum supply - demand balance in 2026 is expected to be in a shortage of about 590,000 tons, but if the overseas supply reduction does not expand in the second quarter, the upward momentum of aluminum prices is insufficient [3]. - For alumina, the spot price is still stable with a small increase. The futures and spot prices diverged last week. The futures price fell while the spot price rose slightly. Attention should be paid to the opportunity of warehouse - receipt shipment after the futures price decline. The short - term surplus contradiction in the alumina spot market is not significant [4]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Trading End - **Price Difference**: The A00 spot premium and alumina spot premium strengthened this week. The average SMM A00 aluminum premium changed from - 170 yuan/ton to - 90 yuan/ton, and the average SMM A00 aluminum (Foshan) premium changed from - 180 yuan/ton to - 175 yuan/ton. The premium of Shandong alumina to the current month changed from - 318 yuan/ton to - 128 yuan/ton, and that of Henan alumina changed from - 263 yuan/ton to - 88 yuan/ton [7]. - **Monthly Price Difference**: The near - month price difference of Shanghai aluminum declined [10]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The open interest of the Shanghai aluminum main contract decreased slightly, and the trading volume decreased significantly. The open interest of the alumina main contract decreased slightly but remained at a historical high, and the trading volume decreased slightly [13]. - **Open Interest - Inventory Ratio**: The open interest - inventory ratio of Shanghai aluminum declined, and that of alumina decreased slightly and was at a historical low [18]. 3.2 Inventory - **Bauxite**: As of March 27, the port inventory of imported bauxite decreased by 142,900 tons week - on - week, and the port inventory days remained basically the same. As of February, the bauxite inventory of 43 sample enterprises in China decreased by 6.6232 million tons month - on - month. The port shipping volume and sea - floating inventory of Guinea and Australia decreased. The shipping volume from Australian ports increased slightly, while that from Guinean ports decreased slightly. The bauxite arrival volume decreased significantly [23][28][29]. - **Alumina**: The total national alumina inventory continued to increase, but the increase slowed down. The inventory in alumina plants decreased, the inventory in electrolytic aluminum plants increased, the port inventory decreased, and the inventory in stations/in - transit increased. As of March 26, the national alumina inventory was 5.379 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 10,000 tons [42][47]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of March 26, the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased by 14,000 tons to 1.371 million tons this week [48]. - **Aluminum Rod**: The spot inventory and in - plant inventory of downstream aluminum rods decreased this week [52]. - **Aluminum Profiles & Plate - Foil**: As of February, the finished - product inventory ratio and raw - material inventory ratio of SMM aluminum profiles and plate - foil increased slightly [55]. 3.3 Production - **Bauxite**: In February, the domestic bauxite supply remained stable, but the SMM - caliber domestic bauxite production decreased slightly. The bauxite production in Shanxi, Henan, and Guangxi decreased to varying degrees [60][63]. - **Alumina**: The alumina capacity utilization rate remained stable. As of March 27, the total operating capacity of national alumina was 92.2 million tons, with a week - on - week increase of 0 tons. This week, the domestic metallurgical - grade alumina production was 1.782 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 2,000 tons, and the supply - side loosening pattern remained unchanged [67]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: As of February, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum remained at a high level, but the capacity utilization rate decreased slightly. As of March 26, the weekly output of electrolytic aluminum was 860,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 30 tons. The proportion of molten aluminum decreased seasonally [73]. - **Downstream Processing**: This week, the production of recycled aluminum rods increased by 2,170 tons week - on - week, the production of aluminum rods decreased by 5,200 tons week - on - week, and the production of aluminum plate - foil increased by 1,300 tons week - on - week. The operating rate of domestic aluminum downstream leading enterprises increased by 1.1% week - on - week, the operating rate of aluminum plate - strip increased by 1 percentage point, and the operating rate of aluminum foil remained unchanged [79][80]. 3.4 Profit - **Alumina**: In February, the alumina profit continued to decline slightly. The profit of metallurgical - grade alumina was 110.3 yuan/ton. The profits of alumina in Shandong, Shanxi, and Henan decreased slightly, while the cost side of Guangxi alumina was relatively strong, and its profit performance was better than other regions [89]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The electrolytic aluminum profit remained at a high level, but the complex global macro - economic situation, overseas geopolitical conflicts, and changing trade policies increased uncertainty and interfered with market expectations [99]. - **Downstream Processing**: The processing fee of aluminum rods increased by 30 yuan/ton week - on - week, but the downstream processing profit remained at a low level [100]. 3.5 Consumption - **Import Profit and Loss**: The import profit and loss of alumina and Shanghai aluminum increased [109]. - **Export**: In February 2025, the total export volume of aluminum products decreased slightly, a month - on - month decrease of 111,000 tons. The export profit and loss of aluminum processing materials showed differentiation, and the export demand for aluminum products was hindered by trade - policy adjustments [111][113]. - **Apparent Demand**: The transaction area of commercial housing was at a low level, and the automobile sales volume decreased month - on - month [117].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report's industry investment rating in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: Overnight, both domestic and international copper prices fluctuated and rose, with the import window for domestic refined copper opening. Geopolitical conflicts between the US and Iran continue to impact the market, causing concerns about global economic growth and putting pressure on copper demand and liquidity. Short - term support levels are in the range of 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton. Light - position long positions can be considered if inventory accumulation weakens and spot discounts narrow; otherwise, continue to observe if geopolitical conflicts expand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Overnight, alumina fluctuated strongly, while Shanghai aluminum and aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas alumina raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure due to production cuts in the Middle East, leading to a "rush for aluminum" in the overseas market. The domestic market is in a state of inventory accumulation and slow demand start, showing a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic markets [1][2]. - **Nickel**: Overnight, LME nickel and Shanghai nickel both rose. Nickel ore prices are rising due to supply shortages and increased shipping costs, but the large increase in primary nickel inventory poses significant pressure. Despite the expected supplementary quota in July, considering the rising cost, short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered, while being vigilant about macro - level impacts [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Copper**: Overnight, copper prices rose. Geopolitical factors, economic data, and inventory changes all affect the copper market. LME inventory decreased by 225 tons to 311,600 tons, Comex inventory decreased by 1,708 tons to 535,028 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts increased by 7,935 tons to 322,998 tons. Short - term support is at 90,000 - 100,000 yuan/ton [1]. - **Aluminum**: Alumina rose 0.57% to 2,989 yuan/ton, Shanghai aluminum fell 0.48% to 24,970 yuan/ton, and aluminum alloy fell 0.13% to 23,685 yuan/ton. Domestic alumina manufacturers are dealing with losses, and overseas raw materials are being redirected. The supply of electrolytic aluminum is under pressure, and the domestic market is waiting for a turning point [1][2]. - **Nickel**: LME nickel rose 0.95% to 17,485 US dollars/ton, and Shanghai nickel rose 0.37% to 136,900 yuan/ton. LME inventory decreased by 744 tons to 283,914 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 845 tons to 57,307 tons. Nickel ore prices are rising, but primary nickel inventory is increasing. Short - term long positions based on the cost line can be considered [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - **Copper**: On March 16, 2026, the price of flat - water copper was 99,155 yuan/ton, down 1,345 yuan from March 13. LME and COMEX inventories changed, and social inventory decreased by 0.8 million tons [1][4]. - **Lead**: The average price of 1 lead was 16,330 yuan/ton, down 250 yuan from March 13. Warehouse receipts in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 535 tons, and weekly inventory increased by 9,220 tons [4]. - **Aluminum**: The Wuxi and Nanhai quotes decreased. The social inventory of electrolytic aluminum increased by 32,000 tons, and the social inventory of alumina increased by 45,000 tons [5]. - **Nickel**: The price of Jinchuan nickel decreased by 2,650 yuan/ton. LME and SHFE inventories changed, and social inventory increased by 2,953 tons [5]. - **Zinc**: The main settlement price decreased by 0.8%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 793 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.51 million tons [7]. - **Tin**: The main settlement price decreased by 3.3%. The weekly inventory in the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased by 851 tons [7]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - **Spot Premium and Discount**: Charts show the spot premium and discount trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [9][10][14]. - **SHFE Near - Far Month Spread**: Charts display the near - far month spread trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [15][18][22]. - **LME Inventory**: Charts present the LME inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [24][26][28]. - **SHFE Inventory**: Charts show the SHFE inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2026 [30][32][34]. - **Social Inventory**: Charts display the social inventory trends of copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2026 [36][38][41]. - **Smelting Profit**: Charts present the trends of copper concentrate index, copper smelting fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit margin from 2019 - 2026 [42][44][46]. 3.4 Team Introduction - The non - ferrous metals team includes Zhan Dapeng, Wang Heng, and Zhu Xi. Zhan Dapeng is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, with rich experience and many honors. Wang Heng focuses on aluminum and silicon research, and Zhu Xi focuses on lithium and nickel research, both with significant achievements and media exposure [49][50].

Financial Highlights - The company reported a net profit of $90 million for Q4 2025, bringing the full-year profit to $140 million. The EBITDA for Q4 was $322 million, resulting in a total EBITDA of $943 million for the year [4][5] - Liquidity is strong at $560 million, with a covenant for bonds on equity at 31% and for other loan agreements at 44% [4][6] - The company successfully deleveraged and paid dividends, with an interim dividend declared at $0.16, amounting to approximately $45 million [7][8] Business Line Performance - The dry bulk segment constitutes 60% of the total fair market value of the fleet, which is approximately $10.7 billion [3] - The contract backlog stands at $3.05 billion, with $304 million added in Q4, primarily from Capesize and one CSOV [7] - The company has a large spot exposure, particularly in dry bulk, with 53,000 shipping days in 2026, of which 44,000 are spot [9] Market Overview - The company remains positive on dry bulk tankers and offshore markets, while being cautious on container and chemical sectors [13] - There is expected ton-mile growth for iron ore and bauxite in 2026, with manageable fleet growth of 2.3% for Capesizes [14][22] - The tanker market is currently very positive, with strong earnings and sentiment, despite a muted supply-demand balance [15][26] Strategic Direction and Industry Competition - The company aims to strengthen its balance sheet and increase dividends while continuing to fund capital expenditures [11][12] - The management is cautious about new tanker orders, preferring to capitalize on the current spot market rather than committing to new builds [47] - The company is focused on maintaining a competitive edge in the dry bulk market, believing there is more potential for growth compared to the tanker market [56] Management Commentary on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the dry bulk market, anticipating strong demand driven by iron ore and bauxite [21][23] - The company is also optimistic about the offshore wind market, expecting new projects to drive demand for offshore supply vessels [90][91] - The management highlighted the importance of maintaining flexibility in operations and capitalizing on market opportunities as they arise [41][79] Other Important Information - The company has secured a small investment in a logistics company for ammonia-powered vessels, which is part of its strategy to enhance operational efficiency [81][82] - The company is not currently pursuing new tanker orders but remains open to opportunities that may arise [47] Q&A Session Summary Question: Did the strong tanker market assist in repaying the Golden Ocean bridge? - Yes, the sale of eight VLCCs contributed significantly to the repayment, with net proceeds of approximately $420 million from the sales [41][42] Question: What is the target for reducing loan-to-value (LTV)? - The long-term target is to achieve a 50% LTV, with current estimates suggesting they are close to that level [43][44] Question: Are there plans to sell Suezmax tankers to pay down debt? - The company is open to selling older vessels if high prices are offered but is currently focused on maintaining its younger fleet [52] Question: What is the stance on adding more coverage in the dry bulk market? - The company is interested in taking more long-term cover when market conditions are favorable [67][68] Question: What are the expectations regarding the U.S. Maritime Action Plan? - The impact of the new U.S. Maritime Action Plan is still uncertain, but the company does not foresee significant changes affecting its operations [63] Question: Can you elaborate on the recent cooperation signed with China? - The cooperation involves building ammonia-powered vessels and securing logistics for green ammonia, with a small investment made to enhance control over logistics [81][82]

Group 1 - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notice to implement electronic cigarette industry policies aimed at promoting supply and demand balance in the market [1] - The notice emphasizes the need to coordinate the effective market and proactive government roles, establishing annual production scales within approved capacity limits as corporate production and sales targets [1] - There will be strict total production scale regulation, with a focus on categorizing policies based on the operational status of companies, and a rigorous review process for production scale adjustments [1] Group 2 - In January, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai remaining stable while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price decline of 0.3%, with a slight narrowing of the decline by 0.1 percentage points [2] - Third-tier cities also saw a month-on-month decrease in sales prices of 0.4%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notification to regulate the electronic cigarette industry, aiming to balance supply and demand while preventing overcapacity and ensuring compliance with industry policies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Regulation - Companies are prohibited from investing in new projects, and any relocation or restoration of projects must not increase production capacity. Technical renovations should generally not increase capacity unless specific conditions are met [2][3]. - Enterprises must demonstrate that any new capacity aligns with market demand and complies with safety, health, and environmental standards [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Control - The notification emphasizes the need for capacity management based on market demand, with strict adherence to approved production capacities [3][4]. - Companies must apply for re-evaluation of their production capacity if adjustments are needed, and any outsourcing must remain within the approved capacity limits [3][4]. Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Balance - The notification aims to mitigate chaotic market competition by regulating annual production scales within approved capacities [4][5]. - Increased regulatory scrutiny will be applied to high-risk market participants, focusing on compliance with national standards and regulations [4][5]. Group 4: Overcapacity Risk Mitigation - A legal and market-oriented approach will be taken to phase out excess capacity, particularly for companies failing to meet industry standards [5][6]. - Companies with consistently low capacity utilization or those involved in illegal activities will be subject to stricter oversight and potential capacity reduction [5][6]. Group 5: Compliance Improvement - The notification supports electronic cigarette companies in enhancing their operational capabilities and compliance with regulations [6][7]. - Companies are urged to avoid illegal sales practices and ensure that products meet national standards, with a focus on protecting minors from access to electronic cigarettes [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notification to regulate the electronic cigarette industry, emphasizing the need to balance supply and demand while preventing overcapacity and ensuring compliance with industry policies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Behavior Regulation - Enterprises are prohibited from investing in new projects, and any relocation or restoration of projects must not increase production capacity [2][3]. - Technical renovations at existing sites should not lead to increased capacity unless they meet specific criteria, including high capacity utilization and genuine market demand [2][3]. - Companies must not increase production lines or capacities through unauthorized means and must comply with antitrust laws during capacity restructuring [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Control - The management of electronic cigarette production capacity will be based on market demand, with a focus on fair and orderly implementation of capacity management [3][4]. - Companies must apply for re-evaluation of their production capacity if adjustments are needed, and must operate within their approved capacity limits [3][4]. - Mergers and consolidations of production points are encouraged to improve efficiency, provided they comply with industry policies [3][4]. Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Balance - The notification aims to mitigate chaotic market competition by regulating annual production scales within approved capacity limits [4][5]. - Increased regulatory scrutiny will be applied to high-risk market participants, with strict penalties for violations such as false declarations and non-compliance with quality standards [4][5]. - Companies are required to ensure compliance with destination country regulations for exported products [4][5]. Group 4: Overcapacity Risk Mitigation - A legal and market-oriented approach will be adopted to phase out excess capacity, targeting companies that do not meet industry standards [5][6]. - Companies with consistently low capacity utilization or those involved in illegal activities will be closely monitored and may face capacity reductions [5][6]. - A comprehensive standard system for electronic cigarettes will be established to enhance quality and safety [5][6]. Group 5: Compliance Improvement - Support will be provided to enhance the professional and regulatory capabilities of electronic cigarette manufacturers, focusing on innovation and brand development [6][7]. - Strict regulations will be enforced against the illegal sale of electronic cigarettes through various online platforms [6][7]. - A credit supervision system will be developed to differentiate regulatory measures based on compliance levels, simplifying processes for compliant companies [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The income of drivers in the ride-hailing industry is a hot topic, with platform commission rates being a significant concern that affects millions of drivers. The market is transitioning from growth to saturation, indicating deeper issues related to supply and demand dynamics rather than just commission rates [1][9]. Commission Rates - Drivers can now view commission rates for each order through the platform's backend, with reported driver income percentages ranging from 73.1% to 100% across different orders. Drivers generally find a commission rate below 25% acceptable [2]. - Didi reported that in 2020, drivers earned 79.1% of the total amount paid by passengers, with the remaining 20.9% allocated to subsidies, operational costs, and net profit. Orders with commissions exceeding 30% accounted for only 2.7% of total orders [3]. - The average commission rate for Didi's orders is projected to be 14% in 2024 [4]. Driver Income Trends - From 2022 to 2024, the proportion of driver income (including subsidies) from platforms like Cao Cao Travel was 84.2%, 79.1%, and 79.0%, respectively, with corresponding commission rates not exceeding 15.8%, 20.9%, and 21% [5]. - The industry is experiencing a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with increasing competition among drivers leading to downward pressure on income despite a growing number of ride requests [9]. Regulatory Actions - Regulatory bodies have begun addressing issues related to commission transparency and excessive rates, with initiatives to prohibit order reselling and set reasonable commission limits [6]. - In 2024, various platforms announced reductions in commission rates to enhance driver earnings, with Didi planning to lower its maximum commission from 29% to 27% by the end of 2025 [11]. Market Dynamics - The ride-hailing market is transitioning to a phase of structural optimization and efficiency improvement, with increasing active driver numbers but declining average orders per vehicle [8]. - The average daily active drivers in Hangzhou reached 93,100 in Q4 2025, a 10.09% increase year-on-year, while the average daily orders per vehicle decreased by 3.32% [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that while there may be limited room for further price reductions, there could be more initiatives aimed at increasing driver income [10].

Group 1 - Oil prices have risen for the second consecutive day due to geopolitical tensions following the U.S. downing of an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier, with WTI crude approaching $64 per barrel and Brent crude above $67 per barrel [1] - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease of 11.1 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which, if confirmed by official data, would mark the largest weekly decline since June [4] - Concerns about potential conflicts in the Middle East, a region that accounts for about one-third of global oil production, have contributed to rising oil prices despite signs of oversupply [4] Group 2 - The energy sector in the U.S. stock market has also seen gains, with the S&P Energy sector rising by 3.24%, and notable increases in companies such as Valero Energy (VLO.US) and Marathon Oil (MPC.US) by 6% [5] - ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) saw increases of over 3%, while Chevron (CVX.US) and Devon Energy (DVN.US) rose by 2% [5] Group 3 - The geopolitical situation is further complicated by incidents such as the harassment of a U.S.-flagged tanker by Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for oil and liquefied natural gas [4] - OPEC+ is expected to see a gradual increase in global oil demand starting from March or April, which may help balance market supply and demand [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is still affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to run with a slight upward trend in the short term, but the medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the global balance sheet is in a state of oversupply [1] - The upward trend is driven by the geopolitical risks in Iran and the cold wave in the United States, while the market also faces resistance such as high raw material import costs and price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On January 29, the regional prices of LPG in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4360 - 4450 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3940 - 4100 yuan/ton, North China market 4150 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4780 - 5080 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4300 - 4470 yuan/ton, and South China market 4790 - 4900 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 635 US dollars/ton and 625 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4876 yuan/ton and 4838 yuan/ton in RMB, up 15 yuan/ton and 54 yuan/ton respectively [1] - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 622 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton and 7 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4815 yuan/ton and 4777 yuan/ton in RMB, up 15 yuan/ton and 54 yuan/ton respectively [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: Not provided - Cross - variety: Not provided - Spot - futures: Not provided - Options: Not provided

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuation in lithium carbonate futures prices reflects a market returning to fundamental trading after digesting previous bullish news, with prices experiencing a decline due to increased market volatility and a drop in lithium ore prices [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 28, lithium carbonate futures closed at 166,280 yuan/ton, marking a 3.9% decrease [1]. - The price drop is attributed to the market's return to fundamentals after a period of high prices and increased volatility due to diverging market sentiments [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lithium carbonate remains high but with limited incremental growth, maintaining a weekly production of approximately 22,000 tons [4]. - Demand is characterized by a "not-so-dull" off-season, with energy storage batteries operating at full capacity and a surge in exports driven by tax rebate policies [4]. - Current weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate is around 800 tons, indicating a shift back to a destocking phase after a slight accumulation [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current low inventory levels across the industry, particularly among lithium salt manufacturers and downstream industries, may support prices despite recent declines [4]. - The market sentiment has cooled due to systemic risks and macroeconomic factors, leading to expectations of price fluctuations around high levels until new driving factors emerge [4][6]. - The ongoing strong demand may provide support for lithium carbonate prices, but caution is advised regarding potential downward adjustments as market dynamics evolve [5][6].