Cmb.Tech (NYSE:CMBT) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 26, 2026 08:00 AM ET Company ParticipantsAlexander Saverys - CEOChristophe Savi - SVP and Head of the NH3 divisionEnya Derkinderen - Brand ManagerFrode Mørkedal - Managing Director and Equity ResearchJoris Daman - Head of Investor Relations and ESGLudovic Saverys - CFOPetter Haugen - Head of Shipping ResearchConference Call ParticipantsClément Moulin - Sell-side AnalystNone - AnalystNone - AnalystAlexander SaverysGood afternoon, and welcome to the CMB.TECH ...

Group 1 - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notice to implement electronic cigarette industry policies aimed at promoting supply and demand balance in the market [1] - The notice emphasizes the need to coordinate the effective market and proactive government roles, establishing annual production scales within approved capacity limits as corporate production and sales targets [1] - There will be strict total production scale regulation, with a focus on categorizing policies based on the operational status of companies, and a rigorous review process for production scale adjustments [1] Group 2 - In January, the sales prices of newly built commercial residential properties in first-tier cities decreased by 0.3% month-on-month, with Shanghai remaining stable while Beijing, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen saw declines of 0.3%, 0.6%, and 0.4% respectively [2] - Second-tier cities experienced a month-on-month price decline of 0.3%, with a slight narrowing of the decline by 0.1 percentage points [2] - Third-tier cities also saw a month-on-month decrease in sales prices of 0.4%, maintaining the same decline as the previous month [2]

Core Viewpoint - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notification to regulate the electronic cigarette industry, aiming to balance supply and demand while preventing overcapacity and ensuring compliance with industry policies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Regulation - Companies are prohibited from investing in new projects, and any relocation or restoration of projects must not increase production capacity. Technical renovations should generally not increase capacity unless specific conditions are met [2][3]. - Enterprises must demonstrate that any new capacity aligns with market demand and complies with safety, health, and environmental standards [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Control - The notification emphasizes the need for capacity management based on market demand, with strict adherence to approved production capacities [3][4]. - Companies must apply for re-evaluation of their production capacity if adjustments are needed, and any outsourcing must remain within the approved capacity limits [3][4]. Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Balance - The notification aims to mitigate chaotic market competition by regulating annual production scales within approved capacities [4][5]. - Increased regulatory scrutiny will be applied to high-risk market participants, focusing on compliance with national standards and regulations [4][5]. Group 4: Overcapacity Risk Mitigation - A legal and market-oriented approach will be taken to phase out excess capacity, particularly for companies failing to meet industry standards [5][6]. - Companies with consistently low capacity utilization or those involved in illegal activities will be subject to stricter oversight and potential capacity reduction [5][6]. Group 5: Compliance Improvement - The notification supports electronic cigarette companies in enhancing their operational capabilities and compliance with regulations [6][7]. - Companies are urged to avoid illegal sales practices and ensure that products meet national standards, with a focus on protecting minors from access to electronic cigarettes [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The National Tobacco Monopoly Administration has issued a notification to regulate the electronic cigarette industry, emphasizing the need to balance supply and demand while preventing overcapacity and ensuring compliance with industry policies [1][2]. Group 1: Investment Behavior Regulation - Enterprises are prohibited from investing in new projects, and any relocation or restoration of projects must not increase production capacity [2][3]. - Technical renovations at existing sites should not lead to increased capacity unless they meet specific criteria, including high capacity utilization and genuine market demand [2][3]. - Companies must not increase production lines or capacities through unauthorized means and must comply with antitrust laws during capacity restructuring [2][3]. Group 2: Capacity Control - The management of electronic cigarette production capacity will be based on market demand, with a focus on fair and orderly implementation of capacity management [3][4]. - Companies must apply for re-evaluation of their production capacity if adjustments are needed, and must operate within their approved capacity limits [3][4]. - Mergers and consolidations of production points are encouraged to improve efficiency, provided they comply with industry policies [3][4]. Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Balance - The notification aims to mitigate chaotic market competition by regulating annual production scales within approved capacity limits [4][5]. - Increased regulatory scrutiny will be applied to high-risk market participants, with strict penalties for violations such as false declarations and non-compliance with quality standards [4][5]. - Companies are required to ensure compliance with destination country regulations for exported products [4][5]. Group 4: Overcapacity Risk Mitigation - A legal and market-oriented approach will be adopted to phase out excess capacity, targeting companies that do not meet industry standards [5][6]. - Companies with consistently low capacity utilization or those involved in illegal activities will be closely monitored and may face capacity reductions [5][6]. - A comprehensive standard system for electronic cigarettes will be established to enhance quality and safety [5][6]. Group 5: Compliance Improvement - Support will be provided to enhance the professional and regulatory capabilities of electronic cigarette manufacturers, focusing on innovation and brand development [6][7]. - Strict regulations will be enforced against the illegal sale of electronic cigarettes through various online platforms [6][7]. - A credit supervision system will be developed to differentiate regulatory measures based on compliance levels, simplifying processes for compliant companies [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The income of drivers in the ride-hailing industry is a hot topic, with platform commission rates being a significant concern that affects millions of drivers. The market is transitioning from growth to saturation, indicating deeper issues related to supply and demand dynamics rather than just commission rates [1][9]. Commission Rates - Drivers can now view commission rates for each order through the platform's backend, with reported driver income percentages ranging from 73.1% to 100% across different orders. Drivers generally find a commission rate below 25% acceptable [2]. - Didi reported that in 2020, drivers earned 79.1% of the total amount paid by passengers, with the remaining 20.9% allocated to subsidies, operational costs, and net profit. Orders with commissions exceeding 30% accounted for only 2.7% of total orders [3]. - The average commission rate for Didi's orders is projected to be 14% in 2024 [4]. Driver Income Trends - From 2022 to 2024, the proportion of driver income (including subsidies) from platforms like Cao Cao Travel was 84.2%, 79.1%, and 79.0%, respectively, with corresponding commission rates not exceeding 15.8%, 20.9%, and 21% [5]. - The industry is experiencing a shift from a seller's market to a buyer's market, with increasing competition among drivers leading to downward pressure on income despite a growing number of ride requests [9]. Regulatory Actions - Regulatory bodies have begun addressing issues related to commission transparency and excessive rates, with initiatives to prohibit order reselling and set reasonable commission limits [6]. - In 2024, various platforms announced reductions in commission rates to enhance driver earnings, with Didi planning to lower its maximum commission from 29% to 27% by the end of 2025 [11]. Market Dynamics - The ride-hailing market is transitioning to a phase of structural optimization and efficiency improvement, with increasing active driver numbers but declining average orders per vehicle [8]. - The average daily active drivers in Hangzhou reached 93,100 in Q4 2025, a 10.09% increase year-on-year, while the average daily orders per vehicle decreased by 3.32% [8]. Future Outlook - Industry experts suggest that while there may be limited room for further price reductions, there could be more initiatives aimed at increasing driver income [10].

Group 1 - Oil prices have risen for the second consecutive day due to geopolitical tensions following the U.S. downing of an Iranian drone near an aircraft carrier, with WTI crude approaching $64 per barrel and Brent crude above $67 per barrel [1] - The American Petroleum Institute reported a decrease of 11.1 million barrels in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which, if confirmed by official data, would mark the largest weekly decline since June [4] - Concerns about potential conflicts in the Middle East, a region that accounts for about one-third of global oil production, have contributed to rising oil prices despite signs of oversupply [4] Group 2 - The energy sector in the U.S. stock market has also seen gains, with the S&P Energy sector rising by 3.24%, and notable increases in companies such as Valero Energy (VLO.US) and Marathon Oil (MPC.US) by 6% [5] - ExxonMobil (XOM.US) and Occidental Petroleum (OXY.US) saw increases of over 3%, while Chevron (CVX.US) and Devon Energy (DVN.US) rose by 2% [5] Group 3 - The geopolitical situation is further complicated by incidents such as the harassment of a U.S.-flagged tanker by Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route for oil and liquefied natural gas [4] - OPEC+ is expected to see a gradual increase in global oil demand starting from March or April, which may help balance market supply and demand [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core View of the Report - The LPG market is still affected by geopolitical risks and is expected to run with a slight upward trend in the short term, but the medium - term supply is expected to increase, and the global balance sheet is in a state of oversupply [1] - The upward trend is driven by the geopolitical risks in Iran and the cold wave in the United States, while the market also faces resistance such as high raw material import costs and price inversion between ether - post carbon four and civil gas [1] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Analysis - On January 29, the regional prices of LPG in different markets were as follows: Shandong market 4360 - 4450 yuan/ton, Northeast market 3940 - 4100 yuan/ton, North China market 4150 - 4450 yuan/ton, East China market 4120 - 4400 yuan/ton, Yangtze River market 4780 - 5080 yuan/ton, Northwest market 4300 - 4470 yuan/ton, and South China market 4790 - 4900 yuan/ton [1] - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in East China were 635 US dollars/ton and 625 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4876 yuan/ton and 4838 yuan/ton in RMB, up 15 yuan/ton and 54 yuan/ton respectively [1] - In the second half of February 2026, the CIF prices of propane and butane in South China were 627 US dollars/ton and 622 US dollars/ton respectively, up 2 US dollars/ton and 7 US dollars/ton, equivalent to 4815 yuan/ton and 4777 yuan/ton in RMB, up 15 yuan/ton and 54 yuan/ton respectively [1] Strategy - Unilateral: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and attention should be paid to the development of the Iranian situation [2] - Inter - period: Not provided - Cross - variety: Not provided - Spot - futures: Not provided - Options: Not provided

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuation in lithium carbonate futures prices reflects a market returning to fundamental trading after digesting previous bullish news, with prices experiencing a decline due to increased market volatility and a drop in lithium ore prices [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 28, lithium carbonate futures closed at 166,280 yuan/ton, marking a 3.9% decrease [1]. - The price drop is attributed to the market's return to fundamentals after a period of high prices and increased volatility due to diverging market sentiments [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lithium carbonate remains high but with limited incremental growth, maintaining a weekly production of approximately 22,000 tons [4]. - Demand is characterized by a "not-so-dull" off-season, with energy storage batteries operating at full capacity and a surge in exports driven by tax rebate policies [4]. - Current weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate is around 800 tons, indicating a shift back to a destocking phase after a slight accumulation [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current low inventory levels across the industry, particularly among lithium salt manufacturers and downstream industries, may support prices despite recent declines [4]. - The market sentiment has cooled due to systemic risks and macroeconomic factors, leading to expectations of price fluctuations around high levels until new driving factors emerge [4][6]. - The ongoing strong demand may provide support for lithium carbonate prices, but caution is advised regarding potential downward adjustments as market dynamics evolve [5][6].

Core Insights - The 2025 Nanjing office market is experiencing a peak in supply with five new projects adding approximately 540,000 square meters to the market, leading to significant downward pressure on rental prices [1][2] - The average rental price in Nanjing has decreased by 6.8% year-on-year, reaching 103.7 yuan per square meter per month, indicating a shift in market dynamics and cautious cost control by companies [4] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The fourth quarter of 2025 will see the highest concentration of new supply, with four projects primarily located in the Hexi and Gulou districts [2] - Despite a 26.7% year-on-year increase in net absorption to 78,000 square meters, the vacancy rate is projected to rise by 7.5 percentage points to 36.2% by the end of 2025, highlighting significant supply-demand imbalance [2] Sector-Specific Demand - The financial sector remains the largest demand driver, accounting for 22% of total demand, particularly in the Hexi and Xinjiekou areas, with the insurance industry showing notable activity [2] - The real estate and construction sectors represent 13% of demand, primarily driven by construction engineering firms, while third-party office service operations account for 12% [2] Leasing Trends - The rental structure is shifting, with leases under 500 square meters making up 56% of total transactions, indicating a preference for smaller office spaces [2] - Relocation demands are the primary driver of leasing activity, comprising 80% of transactions, while new office setups account for only 12% and expansion requests are limited to 8% [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of various commodities and financial products, including energy, metals, chemicals, agricultural products, and financial derivatives. It provides insights into supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and investment suggestions for each category [2][3][4] Summary by Categories Energy - **Crude Oil**: Tensions in the Iranian geopolitical situation and the US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers have increased short - term upward pressure on oil prices, but inventory pressure and supply surplus limit the upside [2] - **Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Geopolitical factors have led to wide - range fluctuations in fuel oil prices. High - sulfur fuel oil may see increased demand, while low - sulfur fuel oil faces supply - side pressure [22] - **Bitumen**: Oil price rebounds have not been fully followed by bitumen. Venezuelan oil supply disruptions may impact bitumen raw materials in the future [23] Metals - **Precious Metals**: With mixed US employment data and ongoing global geopolitical unrest, precious metals are challenging previous highs [3] - **Base Metals**: - **Copper**: Prices are affected by US employment data, geopolitical situations, and domestic production and inventory. An option strategy has been proposed [4] - **Aluminum**: Short - term price movements are driven by funds, and there is a divergence from fundamentals. High profits may prompt aluminum plants to sell for hedging [5] - **Zinc**: Consumption is expected to be front - loaded in 2026, but the market may range - bound due to cost support and supply - side factors [8] - **Lead**: The market is range - bound, and attention should be paid to cost - related support [9] - **Nickel & Stainless Steel**: The market is in a state of shock, with inventory changes and policy sentiment influencing prices [10] - **Tin**: LME tin prices have risen, and domestic prices are supported. Attention is on inventory changes [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are oscillating at a high level, with supply - demand factors driving the market [12] - **Industrial Silicon**: The market is expected to be weak due to supply - demand imbalances [13] - **Polysilicon**: A new policy has changed the trading logic, and prices may seek cost support [14] Ferrous Metals - **Steel (Rebar & Hot - Rolled Coil)**: Steel prices are oscillating, with demand and inventory showing different trends. Steel mill profits are improving, and iron - water production is rising [15] - **Iron Ore**: The market has rebounded, but there are risks of high - level volatility due to supply - demand and geopolitical factors [16] - **Coke & Coking Coal**: Both are expected to have a relatively strong and oscillating trend, with considerations for supply - demand and policy factors [17][18] - **Silicomanganese & Ferrosilicon**: For both, it is recommended to buy on dips, considering supply - demand and policy impacts [19][20] Chemicals - **Urea**: The market is expected to oscillate strongly within a range as spring agricultural demand approaches [24] - **Methanol**: Import expectations are reduced, but high coastal inventories and downstream feedback may suppress the market [25] - **Pure Benzene**: The short - term market is expected to oscillate, and a positive spread strategy may be considered in the medium - term [26] - **Styrene**: The market is in a state of consolidation due to cost and inventory factors [27] - **Polypropylene, Plastic, & Propylene**: Market sentiment varies, with supply - demand factors influencing prices [28] - **PVC & Caustic Soda**: PVC may have short - term trading opportunities and long - term price increases. Caustic soda is oscillating, with supply - demand and profit factors at play [29] - **PX & PTA**: Demand will decline during the Spring Festival, but cost support from oil prices exists. PX has a strong medium - term outlook [30] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The market will be under pressure in the short - term and may improve in the second quarter, but long - term pressure remains [31] Agricultural Products - **Soybeans & Soybean Meal**: The market is waiting for the USDA report. South American production expectations and weather are key factors, and prices may be weak [36] - **Edible Oils (Soybean Oil & Palm Oil)**: The market is expected to oscillate, with attention on palm oil export tax policies and inventory [37] - **Canola & Canola Oil**: The market is expected to oscillate weakly, with the focus on the impact of the Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China [38] - **Soybean No. 1**: The futures contract is in a downward trend, and attention should be paid to policies and market guidance [39] - **Corn**: The futures market is expected to oscillate widely, with attention on sales progress and auctions [40] - **Livestock & Poultry**: - **Pigs**: Short - term price support may come from secondary fattening, but long - term supply pressure exists [41] - **Eggs**: The market is expected to be strong in the short - term, and a long - position strategy is recommended [42] - **Cotton**: The market is expected to adjust, with attention on supply - demand and policy factors [43] - **Sugar**: The market is oscillating, with differences in international and domestic production progress [44] - **Apples**: The futures price has rebounded, and attention should be paid to demand and inventory removal [45] - **Wood**: The price is at a low level, and the market is recommended to be observed [46] - **Pulp**: The market is oscillating, and short - term upward potential is limited [47] Financial Derivatives - **Container Shipping Index (European Line)**: A new policy may push up short - term freight rates, but the long - term impact is uncertain [21] Financial Markets - **Stock Index**: The A - share market is expected to oscillate strongly, with growth and cyclical styles potentially outperforming [48] - **Treasury Bonds**: The market is slightly down, and attention should be paid to the flattening of the yield curve [49]