Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for non-ferrous metals shows mixed performance, with industrial silicon futures experiencing a significant decline of 2.36% to 8695.0 CNY/ton [1] Supply Side - The supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase as the hydropower season progresses in the southwest region, leading to a rise in production from silicon factories [1] - New furnace installations in Sichuan and Yunnan are on the rise, with expectations of a week-on-week production increase in the southwest region [1] - In Xinjiang, while some large factories maintain stable production, smaller silicon plants are less motivated to resume production due to low profit margins from previous low prices, resulting in overall stable production levels [1] Demand Side - There is an anticipated significant increase in the production of polysilicon in August, which will boost demand for industrial silicon [1] - The aluminum alloy sector is operating steadily, while demand remains relatively average; organic silicon also has production increase expectations [1] - Despite a continuous decrease in standard warehouse receipts, the overall industry inventory remains at a high level [1] Market Overview - The overall supply of industrial silicon is expected to increase, leading to a relatively balanced supply-demand situation in the short term, although there is still pressure on inventory absorption [1] - Market sentiment has slightly diminished, but related products like coking coal have seen significant price increases, providing support for the lower end of the market [1] - The main contract is expected to experience range-bound fluctuations in the near term, with recommendations to short on rebounds [1]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported that sales, operational cash generation, and EBITDA were in line with expectations for the quarter [10][11] - Net debt remained stable at $13 billion, with net leverage increasing to 3.1 times due to a reduction in last twelve month EBITDA to $4.2 billion [28][29] - Cash costs declined compared to the first quarter, driven by stronger operational performance and lower fixed costs [25][26] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Brazilian operations saw stronger sales volumes and lower costs compared to Q1, with EBITDA growth year-over-year [12][13] - U.S. operations experienced a 3% price increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by product mix and better commercial location [13] - The paper and packaging business in the U.S. is expected to deliver positive EBITDA in Q3, with lower costs and higher production volumes anticipated [16][58] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Brazil, print and write demand rose 6% year-over-year, with domestic sales also increasing by 6% [14] - Uncoated wood free paper demand remained stable in North America and Latin America but declined by 10% in Europe [14] - The U.S. market for boxboard demand was stable, while demand for SBS boards increased by 1% [15] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on competitiveness and cost reduction, with an emphasis on executing existing deals rather than pursuing new M&A initiatives [10][11] - A deal with Eldorado is expected to provide an internal return of around 20%, allowing for increased production at the Ribba's mill without significant investment [6][42] - The company plans to maintain a focus on deleveraging and improving operational competitiveness [10][88] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the cash cost trend is expected to continue decreasing in the upcoming quarters [10][25] - The company is monitoring market dynamics closely, particularly in light of recent price corrections and supply-demand imbalances [22][72] - Management expressed confidence in the recovery of order intake in China and the potential for price increases due to supply constraints [22][23] Other Important Information - The company has built inventories in the U.S. to mitigate the impact of 50% import duties imposed by the U.S. government [17] - The company is planning to redirect the majority of its exports from the U.S. to other regions [17] - The company maintains a healthy amortization schedule with more than six years of average maturity [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: What are the changing dynamics in the pulp scenario that allowed for the $20 price increase for Asia? - Management noted high order intake levels in China since June, indicating a supportive market environment for price increases [32][34] Question: Can you elaborate on the internal rate of return of the deal with Eldorado? - The internal rate of return is expected to be around 20%, driven by optimized harvesting and reduced operational costs [40][42] Question: What is the expected normalized production level if pulp prices remain below $550 per ton? - The company has a detailed analysis on production costs and has decided to reduce production to maintain profitability [46][47] Question: What are the main opportunities identified in the U.S. packaging market? - The company is expanding its market reach and has seen significant growth in cup stock sales, indicating strong opportunities for profitability [60] Question: How are negotiations regarding the 10% tariff on U.S. exports going? - The company successfully negotiated that customers will bear the 10% tariff, ensuring that Suzano will not absorb this cost [97] Question: What is the status of the Kimberly Clark acquisition? - Dedicated teams have been established to plan the carve-out of the new joint venture, with the project progressing as planned [98]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Macro sentiment and improved raw material fundamentals drive the strengthening of futures and spot markets. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology plans to introduce measures to adjust the structure, optimize supply, and eliminate backward production capacity in key industries, leading to strong macro expectations. The China Iron and Steel Association aims to prevent over - capacity risks. - Overseas, Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden. - In terms of supply and demand, coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Iron - water production is at a high level, and most coal mines have no inventory pressure, with strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. - Technically, the daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend. - Strategy suggestion: With positive macro expectations and the market sentiment extremely high due to coking coal's five daily limit up movements driving coke's one daily limit up, the coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Summary - **Macro**: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology will introduce a plan to promote structural adjustment, supply optimization, and elimination of backward production capacity in key industries. The China Iron and Steel Association focuses on preventing over - capacity risks [9]. - **Overseas**: Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will hold economic and trade talks with the US in Sweden from July 27 - 30 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: Coke has a third price increase. Raw material supply is improving. Current iron - water production is 242.23 tons, a decrease of 0.21 tons. Iron - water production is at a high level. Most coal mines have no inventory pressure, and coal mines have strong price - holding intentions. The total coking coal inventory has increased for three consecutive weeks. The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton [9]. - **Technical**: The daily K - line of the coke main contract is above the 20 - day and 60 - day moving averages, showing a bullish trend [9]. - **Strategy**: The coke main contract is expected to fluctuate strongly [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Market**: As of July 25, the coke futures contract position is 55,000 lots, a week - on - week increase of 166 lots. The 1 - 9 contract month spread is 48.00 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.0 points. The registered coke warehouse receipt is 760 lots, unchanged from the previous period. The futures screw - coke ratio is 1.90, a week - on - week decrease of 0.17 [13][18]. - **Spot Market**: As of July 24, the coke flat - price at Rizhao Port is 1,330 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 50 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of coking coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia is 1,000 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton. As of July 25, the coke basis is - 405.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 166.0 [26]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Industry**: The average loss per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants is 54 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate of 230 independent coking enterprises is 73.61%, an increase of 0.71%. The daily coke output is 51.92, an increase of 0.51. The coke inventory is 50.12, a decrease of 5.43. The total coking coal inventory is 841.21, an increase of 51.02. The available coking coal days are 12.2 days, an increase of 0.62 days [34]. - **Downstream**: The daily iron - water output of 247 steel mills is 242.23 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 0.21 tons and a year - on - year increase of 2.62 tons. As of July 18, the total coke inventory (independent coking plants + 4 major ports + steel mills) is 886.63 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 6.37 tons and a year - on - year increase of 13.62% [38]. - **Inventory Structure**: The port inventory of coking coal and coke has decreased. The coke inventory of 247 steel mills has increased. The capacity utilization rate of 247 steel mills is 86.97%, an increase of 0.13%, and the daily coke output is 47.16, an increase of 0.07 [42]. - **Fundamental Data**: In June, China's coke and semi - coke exports were 51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 41.3%; from January to June, the cumulative exports were 351 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 27.9%. In June, China's steel exports were 967.8 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.5%; from January to June, the cumulative steel exports were 5,814.7 tons, a year - on - year increase of 9.2% [46]. - **Housing Data**: In June 2025, the second - hand housing prices in 70 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 0.30% month - on - month. As of the week of July 20, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 133.91 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 3.50% and a year - on - year decrease of 13.74%. The commercial housing transaction area in first - tier cities increased by 23.12% month - on - month, while that in second - tier cities decreased by 12.39% month - on - month [51][55].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - The 50% tariff on copper imports announced by the US may not fully price in the CL spread in the short - term, and the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. - For aluminum, the short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand, and reverse spreads between distant months and inside - outside spreads can be considered under the low - inventory pattern [1]. - Zinc maintains a short - allocation idea, and short - selling on rebounds is recommended; long inside - outside spreads can be held, and attention can be paid to positive spreads between months [2]. - For nickel, the short - term real - world fundamentals are average, and opportunities for the contraction of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio can be continuously monitored [6]. - Stainless steel is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term due to weak fundamentals [10]. - Lead is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to the terminal consumption destocking strength [12]. - Tin is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and short - term observation is recommended [14]. - Industrial silicon is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly in the short term [16]. - Carbonate lithium is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18]. Summary by Metals Copper - Trump announced a 50% tariff on copper imports, and COMEX copper rose 16%. The US has imported over 860,000 tons of copper in 2025, filling the rigid import gap, so the 50% tariff may not be fully priced in the short - term. Attention should be paid to exemption situations. After the tariff is implemented, the low inventories in China and LME may rebound in Q3 [1]. Aluminum - Supply increased slightly from January to May. In July, demand is expected to weaken seasonally, and supply and demand are expected to be balanced. The short - term fundamentals are okay, and attention should be paid to demand and reverse spreads [1]. Zinc - Zinc prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply is expected to increase by over 5,000 tons in July. Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and overseas demand in Europe is also weak. There is a risk of a short squeeze when LME inventory is below 100,000 tons. Short - allocation, long inside - outside spreads, and positive spreads between months are recommended [2]. Nickel - Pure nickel production remains high, and nickel bean imports increased in May. Demand is weak, and LME premium strengthened slightly. Overseas nickel plate inventory is stable, and domestic inventory decreased slightly. The worry about ore - end disturbances has eased, and attention can be paid to the contraction opportunity of the nickel - stainless steel price ratio [6]. Stainless Steel - Supply has been reduced passively since late May. Demand is mainly for rigid needs. Costs are stable. Inventories in Xijiao and Foshan increased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [10]. Lead - Lead prices declined slightly this week. Supply from scrap is weak, and demand from batteries is also weak. It is expected to oscillate between 17100 - 17500 next week, and attention should be paid to terminal consumption destocking [12]. Tin - Tin prices fluctuated widely this week. Supply may decline slightly in July - August due to low processing fees and upcoming maintenance. Demand from soldering tin is limited, and the growth of terminal electronics and photovoltaics is expected to slow down. It is recommended to observe in the short term [14]. Industrial Silicon - The start - up changed little this week. Output is expected to decline in July and subsequent months, and the market is expected to shift from inventory accumulation to destocking. It is expected to oscillate if the start - up does not recover significantly [16]. Carbonate Lithium - The futures price of carbonate lithium rebounded from a low level. Supply and demand are both strong in the short term, and inventory pressure is gradually accumulating. It is expected to oscillate, and a downward inflection point requires significant accumulation of warehouse receipts and spot [18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The precious metals market is expected to maintain high - level fluctuations due to uncertainties in the US economic situation and inflation. Copper prices are likely to face downward pressure due to changes in supply and demand and tariff policies. Alumina prices are expected to show a strong and volatile trend, with a supply shift from tight balance to structural surplus. The electrolytic aluminum market has mixed factors, with macro - economic and policy impacts, and inventory changes affecting prices. Cast aluminum alloy prices are under pressure, with supply and demand imbalances. Zinc prices may decline due to increased supply and weak consumption. Lead prices may fluctuate at high levels, with improved consumption and limited supply growth. Nickel prices are expected to be weak, with a weak supply - demand situation in the off - season. Stainless steel prices are under pressure due to over - supply and weak demand. Industrial silicon prices are expected to be bullish after a correction, with a balanced supply - demand situation. Polysilicon prices are expected to enter a volatile phase. Lithium carbonate prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [3][8][14][20][27][30][34][37][42][48][53][55]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals Market Review - London gold closed down 0.58% at $3323.29 per ounce, and London silver closed down 1.12% at $37.686 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.54% to 98.62, the 10 - year US Treasury yield climbed to 4.488%, and the RMB exchange rate against the US dollar strengthened, closing up 0.12% at 7.181 [2]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met market expectations, with the overall CPI annual rate rising to 2.7% and the core CPI annual rate rising to 2.9%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in July is 97.4%, and the probability of a 25 - basis - point rate cut is 2.6%. The probability of keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 45.1%, and the probability of a cumulative 25 - basis - point rate cut is 53.5% [2]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data dampened market expectations of a rate cut, causing the US dollar and Treasury yields to rise and precious metals to be under pressure. If the US labor market does not collapse unexpectedly, the Fed's rate - cut timing may be postponed, and precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations [3]. Trading Strategy - Consider taking profits on long positions at high prices. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [3]. Copper Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE copper 2508 contract closed at 78,070 yuan per ton, up 0.18%. The LME copper closed at $9,657.5 per ton, up 0.15%. LME inventory increased by 850 tons to 110,500 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 1,810 tons to 238,000 tons [5]. Important Information - The US CPI data in June met expectations. There were various tariff - related news, and the import of copper ore and concentrates in June 2025 increased by 1.7% year - on - year, while the import of unwrought copper and copper products decreased by 6.4% year - on - year [5][6]. Logic Analysis - The CPI data reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut in September, causing the US dollar index to rise and non - ferrous metal prices to fall. The 232 tariff will be implemented on August 1, and the supply situation will change, with LME inventory bottoming out [8]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [8]. Alumina Market Review - The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 17 yuan to 3,144 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed an upward trend [10]. Important Information - There were policy - related news, domestic spot transactions, changes in warehouse receipts, production capacity, output, inventory, and bauxite shipments [11][12][13]. Logic Analysis - Although the operating capacity remained flat, production was increasing. The supply - demand pattern is shifting from tight balance to structural surplus, but warehouse - receipt demand may disperse the pressure of spot surplus, and prices are expected to be strong and volatile [14]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [16]. Electrolytic Aluminum Market Review - The night - session of the SHFE aluminum 2508 contract remained flat at 20,390 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [18]. Important Information - There were changes in inventory, basis, and warehouse receipts. US inflation data and tariff - related news were also reported, along with domestic housing construction data [18][19]. Trading Logic - Macro - economic factors suppress the Fed's rate - cut expectations, and the domestic market focuses on policy expectations. Fundamentally, inventory changes and demand factors co - exist [20]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view in the short - term. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [21]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Review - The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract rose 20 yuan to 19,795 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions remained flat [23]. Important Information - There were changes in production, cost, and inventory [23][24][26]. Trading Logic - Supply is stable but with actual transaction difficulties, and demand is weak. Futures prices are expected to follow aluminum prices due to cost factors [27]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Consider arbitrage when the price difference between aluminum alloy and aluminum is between - 200 and - 1000 yuan, and consider cash - and - carry arbitrage when the futures - spot price difference is over 400 yuan. Wait and see for options trading [27]. Zinc Market Review - The LME zinc market fell 1.13% to $2,701.5 per ton, and the SHFE zinc 2509 fell 0.54% to 21,985 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [29]. Important Information - A zinc smelter planned maintenance and capacity expansion, and domestic zinc inventory increased [29]. Logic Analysis - Domestic zinc supply is increasing, consumption is in the off - season, and inventory is accumulating, so prices may be under pressure [30]. Trading Strategy - Hold short positions. Wait and see for arbitrage and options trading [35]. Lead Market Review - The LME lead market fell 0.2% to $2,001 per ton, and the SHFE lead 2508 contract fell 0.44% to 16,935 yuan per ton. Spot prices and trading conditions were reported [32]. Important Information - Lead inventory increased [33]. Logic Analysis - The supply of recycled lead is in a loss state, and production willingness is low. The traditional peak season for lead - acid batteries is approaching, and consumption is improving [34]. Trading Strategy - Conduct high - selling and low - buying in the short - term. Sell put options for arbitrage. Wait and see for options trading [34]. Nickel Market Review - The LME nickel rose to $15,215 per ton, and the SHFE nickel NI2508 rose to 121,060 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [37]. Important Information - The LME Hong Kong delivery warehouse started operation [37]. Logic Analysis - Concerns about US tariffs affect external demand. The supply - demand situation in the off - season is weak, and prices are expected to be weak but with cost support [37]. Trading Strategy - Prices are expected to decline. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money call options [38]. Stainless Steel Market Review - The SS2508 contract rose to 12,720 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions were reported [40]. Important Information - India postponed the implementation of relevant regulations, and South Korea imposed anti - dumping duties on Vietnamese cold - rolled stainless steel [40][42]. Logic Analysis - External and internal demand is weak, inventory is accumulating, and prices are under pressure [42]. Trading Strategy - Adopt a bearish view. Wait and see for arbitrage [43]. Industrial Silicon Market Review - The industrial silicon futures main contract rose 2.81% to 8,785 yuan per ton, and spot prices also rose [45]. Important Information - The US launched 232 investigations on imported drones and polysilicon [46]. Comprehensive Analysis - Production is decreasing, and demand is relatively stable. The market is in a balanced state, and prices are expected to be bullish after a correction [48]. Strategy - Adopt a bullish view after a correction. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [49]. Polysilicon Market Review - The polysilicon futures main contract rose 2.78% to 42,470 yuan per ton, and spot prices declined [51]. Important Information - There was news of China - EU energy cooperation [51]. Comprehensive Analysis - Market rumors are frequent, and prices are expected to enter a volatile phase [53]. Strategy - Conduct range trading. Wait and see for options trading. Close the long - polysilicon and short - industrial - silicon arbitrage position [53]. Lithium Carbonate Market Review - The main 2509 contract rose 140 yuan to 66,100 yuan per ton, and spot prices rose [55]. Important Information - There were policy - related news about technology export control [55]. Logic Analysis - Supply - side disturbances have not had a substantial impact on production. Prices are expected to be volatile in the short term and may decline in the long term [55]. Trading Strategy - Wait for short - selling opportunities. Wait and see for arbitrage. Sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [57].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the impact of Trump's tariff policy on the copper market, leading to increased pressure on copper prices and prompting traders to take urgent actions to transport copper to Hawaii [1] - Global copper inventories are decreasing, indicating a potential shift in market dynamics and supply-demand balance [1] - The article raises questions about how the market will rebalance in light of these developments, particularly with the ongoing trade tensions and their effects on copper supply chains [1]

Report Overview - Report Date: May 9, 2025 [1] - Report Author: Jinxin Futures Research Institute Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The recent increase in alumina prices may be due to short - term market sentiment, capital speculation, and supply - side disturbances. Given the overall surplus pattern and the expected loose supply of ore, it is difficult to determine this as a reversal. It is likely a rebound if supply remains loose and demand shows no significant improvement [3][4] - For stock index futures, the short - term trend remains oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] - Gold is in an overall oscillating pattern. The short - term decline is due to the ebb of避险情绪 and technical corrections, but the medium - to - long - term upward logic remains unchanged [11][12] - Iron ore faces high supply surplus pressure in May due to reduced downstream exports and increased shipments, and the weak reality exacerbates the high - valuation risk. A high - short strategy is maintained [15] - Glass is in a situation where daily melting is low, factory inventories are high, and demand is waiting for real - estate stimulus or major policies. A bearish strategy is maintained [20] - For soybeans, the supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, and the overall selling pressure in the soybean market has increased. The soybean futures market shows signs of a phased peak [23] Summary by Category Alumina - Fundamental analysis: The alumina market is in a surplus pattern. The previous rebound in the spot market was partly due to restocking in northern electrolytic aluminum production areas. Supply reduction is not significant, and the expected loose supply of ore weakens the logic of supply reduction [3] - Technical analysis: The previous alumina futures showed a BACK structure. Whether the May 8 increase can break the original oscillating pattern remains to be seen. If it fails to continue to rise with increasing volume and break through key pressure levels, it is likely a rebound [3] Stock Index Futures - Technical analysis: The short - term trend is oscillating with a bullish bias, and the results of the Sino - US economic and trade high - level talks are expected to be released this weekend [7][8] Gold - Technical analysis: The external gold market has adjusted after a significant increase close to the previous high, and Shanghai gold has followed the decline. It is in an overall oscillating pattern. Short - term technical corrections are due to the ebb of避险情绪 and large accumulated gains [11][12] Iron Ore - Fundamental analysis: In May, reduced downstream exports and increased shipments lead to high supply surplus pressure, and the approaching seasonal off - season for domestic demand exacerbates the high - valuation risk [15] - Technical analysis: A large negative line was closed today, and the high - short strategy remains unchanged [15] Glass - Fundamental analysis: The current daily melting is at a low level. Although spot production and sales have improved, factory inventories are still high, and the downstream deep - processing orders lack restocking motivation. Demand growth depends on real - estate stimulus or major policies [20] - Technical analysis: The price hit a new low today, and the bearish strategy remains unchanged [20] Soybeans - Fundamental analysis: The supply shortage of imported soybeans has quickly eased, increasing the overall selling pressure in the soybean market. The premium transaction of local reserve soybeans provides some support for the soybean futures market [23] - Technical analysis: Profitable funds have reduced their positions, and the open interest has continuously declined, showing signs of a phased peak [23]