（来源：蛋品世界WECD） 2026年一季度有望进入淘汰高峰期。在产蛋鸡存栏量将从高位逐步回落，预计年中存栏降至13亿羽以下，供应压力持续缓解，为市场供需平衡修复创造有 利条件。 受元旦节前备货拉动，产区内销走货普遍好转，价格小幅上涨，但随着下游备货结束，各环节积极出货，蛋价止涨走稳。 元旦过后，贸易商陆续开始补货，加之食品厂采购量增加，市场需求转好有望拉动鸡蛋价格上涨，但鸡蛋供应充足，或压制蛋价上涨幅度，预计下周鸡蛋 价格小幅上涨。 今年鸡蛋价格能否迎来反转？ 今年，鸡蛋市场进入关键转折期，产能去化与周期拐点成为核心关注变量，市场处于供需格局重构的关键阶段，兼具不确定性与发展机遇。 2026年1月5日，国家发改委公布最新一期（12月第5周）生猪、肉鸡、蛋鸡一周价格分析。 蛋鸡养殖每只亏损26.60元 全国鸡蛋出场价格及饲料市场价格 | 日期 | 鸡蛋价格 | 饲料价格 | 蛋料比价 | 蛋料比价 | 预期盈利 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 元/公斤) | (元/公斤) | | 平衡点 | (元/只) | | 本周 | 6.02 | 2.66 | 2. ...

宁证期货投资咨询中心 Z0001784 F0255552 PTA检修更主动 摘 要： 原油：2026年非欧佩克+原油供应量将增长120万桶/日。巴西、圭亚那和加 拿大增量较为确定。美国产量偏承压。最终2026年OPEC+如何推进165万桶/日剩 余部分产量的回归将成为市场方向的重要变量。综合来看，2026年的原油市场供 应过剩仍是较为确定性的预测，但OPEC+在平衡市场与价格，油价进入低油价区 间，2026年的原油表现可能会比2025年相对更有韧性。度过供应过剩压力最大阶 段后，2026年大概率是油价的筑底之年。 投资咨询业务资格： 证监许可【2011】1775号 PX：2025年处于"空窗期"，无新增装置;2025年中国PX平均开工率预计为 87.1%，相比2024年的85.7%明显提升；亚洲PX开工率全年大多维持在78%-80%区 间，核心原因是日韩等国部分老旧装置检修频繁、调油需求分流芳烃原料，以及 印度等新兴市场PX装置投产进度不及预期。PXN有所改善。对于2026年，新增产 能较多，但都集中在下半年。第一、二季度无新产能，日韩等国部分老旧装置仍 拖拽亚洲开工率，二季度集中检修，故上半年PXN延续向好 ...

金融期货早评 宏观：内稳外扰下的结构机遇 【市场资讯】1）中国人民银行部署 2026 年重点工作，要求灵活高效运用降准降息等多种 货币政策工具，保持流动性充裕。2）国家外汇局召开 2026 年全国外汇管理工作会议。会 议提出，2026 年出台境外放款、国内外汇贷款资金管理等政策，在全国实施跨国公司本外 币跨境资金集中运营管理政策。筑牢外汇市场"防波堤""防浪堤"，维护外汇市场稳健运行。 3）美联储理事米兰：2026 年需要降息超过 100 个基点。4）委内瑞拉局势——①油库满载 委内瑞拉和美国就向美出口石油问题进行谈判。②马杜罗执政初期，委内瑞拉向瑞士运送 了价值 52 亿美元的黄金。 【核心研判与传导逻辑】1 月 5 日至 6 日召开的 2026 年中国人民银行工作会议，正式确认 全年货币政策基调为"适度宽松"，并首次强调增量政策与存量政策的"集成效应"，标志着宏 观调控思路的系统性调整。会议明确将灵活运用降准降息等多种工具，保持流动性合理充 裕，并完善结构性货币政策，加大对科技创新、中小微企业等重点领域的支持。这一部署 与"两重""两新"投资及消费提振政策形成协同，强化了对基建、工业品及下游板块的支撑力 ...

近一月国内二甲醚行情连续下跌，幅度较大，10月15日国内二甲醚市场均价在3550元/吨，11月15日均 价在3066.67元/吨，期间跌幅为13.61%，价格较去年同期下跌34.73%。 民用气方面，二甲醚跟液化气的走势整体均为下跌，但液化气的跌幅不及二甲醚。气醚差价逐渐拉开， 目前，河南地区气醚价差在700-900元/吨，河北地区气醚价差在800元/吨左右;山东地区气醚价差在800- 900元/吨左右。民用气市场近一月走势呈现连续下跌后小幅反弹，国际原油持续走跌，码头到船频繁， 市场供应压力较大。进入冬季虽然终端需求有所上升，但终端对丙烷的需求大于民用。且随着11月的北 方供暖季到来，北方需求转淡。目前国内供需矛盾有所显现，区内主要厂家连续出货不畅，库存压力渐 增，液化气市场价格接连走低。 生意社孙瑶琳认为：目前甲醇供应充裕，传统下游需求维持弱势，且局部受环保因素影响，部分下游开 工偏低，需求进一步走弱。短期国内甲醇市场差异化整理为主，局部或延续跌势。液化气市场窄幅震荡 为主，相对充足的供应量牵制价格上涨。成本甲醇及液化气市场双双走弱，利好有限，很难带动二甲醚 上涨。河南心连心近期多次执行保底政策，侧面保护 ...

中国有色金属工业协会硅业分会发布的数据显示，本周，多晶硅N型复投料成交均价为5.32万元/吨，N 型颗粒硅成交均价为5.05万元/吨，均环比持平。本周市场成交极为清淡，主流签单企业数量进一步减 少，新签订单几乎停滞，但大多数多晶硅企业均将新单报价上调至约6.5万元/吨以上。 硅业分会认为，业内普遍预期2026年一季度末终端需求有望好转，而1—2月作为关键过渡期，保持产业 链价格体系和库存的稳定至关重要。此时上调报价，主要是向市场传递坚决稳价的信号，为下游硅片、 电池片环节的价格企稳提供底部支撑。 InfoLink指出，由于银价飙涨，为了覆盖电池现金成本，头部电池厂家在上周陆续将三个尺寸报价上扬 至0.3元/W，部分一体化组件厂在该价格水平少量采购。另一方面，一线电池厂家本周陆续将0.3元/W以 下的订单停止发货，并带动二、三线电池厂家跟进锁仓，除去代工订单，电池片厂家于本周大规模停止 交付。 硅片则止住了此前连续多周价格下行态势。硅业分会数据显示，本周，183N单晶硅片成交均价在1.17 元/片，环比上周上涨0.86%；210RN单晶硅片成交均价在1.2元/片，环比上周上涨0.84%；210N单晶硅 片成交均 ...

| 铜产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 【2011】1292号 2025年12月15日 星期一 | | | | 周敏波 | Z0015979 | | 价格及基差 | | | | | | | | 现值 | 前值 | 日涨跌 | 日涨跌幅 | 車位 | | SMM 1#电解铜 | 03222 | 92665 | +930.00 | 1.00% | 元/吨 | | SMM 1#电解铜升贴水 | -20 | 5 | -25.00 | | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜 | 93650 | 92785 | +865.00 | 0.93% | 元/吨 | | SMM 广东1#电解铜升贴水 | વેર | ୧୧ | +30.00 | - | 元/肥 | | SMM湿法铜 | 93505 | 92585 | +920.00 | 0.99% | 元/吨 | | SMM湿法铜升贴水 | -110 | -75 | -35.00 | - | 7C/ http | | 精废价差 | 4797 | 4007 | +79 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Energy and Chemical Weekly Report [1] - Date: December 12, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team, including researchers for different products such as crude oil, asphalt, polyester, etc. [4] Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - The energy and chemical market is generally under pressure. Crude oil and asphalt markets face supply - demand imbalances with potential mid - term downward risks. Polyester, short - fiber, and related products are affected by seasonal demand weakness and cost factors. Polyolefins are in a supply - surplus and demand - weak pattern, while纯碱 remains in a state of oversupply. Paper pulp lacks a clear trend due to supply - demand mismatches [7][31][85][124][143] Summary by Category Crude Oil - **Market Review**: WTI, Brent, and SC crude oil prices declined. The US seizure of Venezuelan oil tankers affected the market sentiment, but the impact on total supply was limited. The 4Q supply surplus deepened, and the market inventory accumulation accelerated [7] - **Fundamental Changes**: IEA and EIA adjusted supply and demand expectations. IEA slightly lowered the global crude oil supply growth rate, while EIA made different adjustments for 2025 and 2026. Demand growth was mainly driven by non - OECD countries, especially China. The inventory accumulation rate in 4Q 2025 and 1Q 2026 increased after the December report adjustment [9][10] - **Outlook**: Short - term market has no clear driver, mainly trading on news. Mid - term, there are still downward risks [7] Asphalt - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices showed some declines. The cost was affected by the situation of Venezuelan oil, and the supply and demand were both weak. The overall market was in a state of shock [30] - **Fundamental Changes**: Cost was influenced by the Venezuelan oil situation. Supply side: the overall开工 rate increased slightly, but regional differences existed. Demand was affected by cold weather and seasonality, and the inventory of factories and social warehouses decreased. The production profit increased slightly [32][33][34] - **Outlook**: The oil price has no strong support, and the asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate [31] Polyester - **Market Review**: PTA prices were affected by crude oil and inventory expectations. Ethylene glycol faced supply - demand pressure and weakening spot support [57] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption was expected to be stable in the short - term but would weaken gradually. PTA was expected to have a slight price increase due to potential new polyester capacity. Ethylene glycol was expected to maintain a weak trend due to supply - demand imbalance and market caution [59][60][62] - **Outlook**: PTA was expected to have a slight price increase, while ethylene glycol was expected to be weak [58] Short - fiber - **Market Review**: Last week, the price of polyester short - fiber declined due to cost and supply - demand factors. This week, it is expected to be slightly warmer due to cost support [67] - **Main Drivers**: Downstream consumption support was weakening. Short - fiber production was expected to be stable, with relatively loose supply and weakening demand [68][69] - **Outlook**: The price of polyester short - fiber is expected to be slightly warmer [67] Polyolefins - **Market Review**: Futures and spot prices of polyolefins declined. The market was in a state of supply surplus and demand weakness [84] - **Fundamental Changes**: The impact of plant maintenance on supply decreased, and the supply pressure increased. The demand was weak, with most PE downstream loads declining and PP开工 remaining stable. Production profits varied by raw material type, and inventory management faced challenges [85][92][99] - **Outlook**: The polyolefin market is expected to continue to operate weakly at the bottom, with attention to support levels [85] 纯碱 - **Market Review**: The price of the main 纯碱 contract declined, and the supply increased while the demand was weak. The inventory decreased significantly [119] - **Market Situation**: Supply: production and开工 rate increased. Inventory: the decrease was not sustainable due to weak demand. Spot price: remained stable in a narrow range. Downstream: the demand for 纯碱 from float glass and photovoltaic glass was weak [125][131][137] - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market may continue to grind at the bottom. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view is taken [124] Paper Pulp - **Market Review**: The price of the paper pulp contract increased, and the spot price of wood pulp also showed an upward trend. However, the demand was weak, and there was no clear trend [142] - **Fundamental Changes**: The pulp shipment volume of major producing countries, import volume, and inventory showed different trends. The downstream market faced cost - transfer difficulties [144][149][156] - **Outlook**: Short - term, it is recommended to be cautious and observe due to lack of a trend [143]

12月9日，2026年下半年，央行购金、对财政主导风险的担忧以及稳健的投资需求，将可能推动黄金价 格进一步上行。OEXN认为，相比之下，白银在主要需求领域可能会出现放缓，但仍可能跟随黄金走势 上扬。根据Heraeus的分析，贵金属价格在2026年初阶段可能仍将承压，下行趋势至少会持续一段时 间。市场此前经历了快速上涨，黄金和白银创下历史高位，而铂族金属（PGM）价格也达到多年来的 峰值，因此价格需要经过一定的整理和消化期。OEXN认为，黄金可能在下半年重新获得动力，但价格 在恢复上涨前仍可能经历数月的横盘整理。 在投资需求推动价格上涨的同时，实物金属流向市场的变化也对流动性产生了影响。例如，Heraeus表 示，流向美国的金属数量影响了市场供需平衡，同时也存在关于部分PGM可能被征收关税的不确定 性。OEXN认为，央行持续购金将为黄金提供坚实的价格支撑，尤其是在利率保持低位、实际利率可能 下降的环境下。白银的高价则抑制了部分工业和消费需求，但若黄金价格持续上涨，白银仍有望跟随其 趋势上行。 尽管铂在2026年的供应偏紧，但需求下降可能导致赤字缩小；钯和铑市场也因内燃机轻型车辆销售下滑 而供应紧张减弱。小型PG ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The term structure of SHFE silver futures is close to flat, contrasting with the previous CONTANGO, mainly due to the tight spot market. The silver TD deferred fee has been consistently showing a short - to - long payment situation. After January, the spot tightness may ease, and the CONTANGO structure is expected to return [3] Group 2: Copper - This week, focus on the Fed's interest rate decision and the trend of the US CPI year - on - year data. Given that last week's macro and micro factors jointly boosted copper prices, this week, even if the macro expectations are realized, the "high - price but low - trading" situation at the micro - level needs to be digested, so beware of price adjustments at high levels [14] - The latest prices and daily changes of copper futures and spot are as follows: the latest price of Shanghai copper main contract is 92,970 yuan/ton, up 190 yuan or 0.2%; the latest price of LME copper 3M is 11,665 dollars/ton, up 231 dollars or 2.02%. Among spot prices, the latest price of Shanghai Non - ferrous 1 copper is 92,300 yuan/ton, up 715 yuan or 0.78% [15][20] Group 3: Aluminum and Alumina - Short - term Shanghai aluminum is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, mainly driven by improved macro sentiment and the strong performance of copper. However, pay attention to the interest rate cut expectations and be vigilant against potential price corrections before the interest rate cut. Alumina is in an oversupply situation, with high domestic production capacity, an open import window, and a large number of incoming import alumina, which exacerbates the imbalance between supply and demand [34] - The latest price of Shanghai aluminum main contract is 22,275 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan or 0.31%; the latest price of alumina main contract is 2,585 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 1.17% [36] Group 4: Zinc - The ADP data indicates that an interest rate cut in December is certain. The next Fed Chairman may be pre - determined by Trump, raising doubts about the Fed's independence and potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. On the fundamental side, TC has dropped significantly, increasing the willingness of smelters to cut or stop production, resulting in supply contraction. The demand side is entering the off - season. Domestic inventory reduction due to exports and production cuts supports Shanghai zinc, while LME inventory is gradually increasing. Currently, with improving macro conditions but a stalemate in fundamentals, Shanghai zinc is undervalued among non - ferrous metals and is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger under the impetus of funds [59] - The latest price of Shanghai zinc main contract is 23,285 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan or 0.09%; the latest price of LME zinc closing price is 3,098 dollars/ton, up 7.5 dollars or 0.24% [60] Group 5: Nickel - Nickel ore is expected to be stable and slightly stronger as major mining areas in the Philippines and Indonesia have entered the rainy season, affecting production and shipping. The new energy sector has seen a certain decline following nickel prices, with most precursor factories having completed procurement, resulting in reduced downstream purchasing willingness. The decline of nickel iron has slowed, with some iron factories reducing production due to limited profits, and strong willingness of upstream suppliers to hold prices. The fundamentals of stainless steel have limited improvement. Currently, off - season demand is weak, so pay attention to Indonesian policies and the December interest rate cut expectations [75] - The latest price of Shanghai nickel main contract is 118,030 yuan/ton, up 240 yuan or 0%; the latest price of LME nickel 3M is 14,970 dollars/ton, up 85 dollars or - 0.02% [76] Group 6: Tin - The ADP data indicates a December interest rate cut, and Trump's frequent intervention in the next Fed Chairman raises doubts about the Fed's independence, potentially leading to more aggressive interest rate cuts. Pay attention to the Thursday interest rate meeting. On the fundamental side, in the short term, it is difficult to solve the raw material problem on the supply side, and there are frequent supply - side disturbances, so Shanghai tin will maintain a high - level volatile trend. The situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may ease due to potential peace talks [88] - The latest price of Shanghai tin main contract is 319,200 yuan/ton, up 1,700 yuan or 0.54%; the latest price of LME tin 3M is 40,175 dollars/ton, down 365 dollars or - 0.9% [89] Group 7: Lithium Carbonate - From the fundamental perspective, the arrival volume of lithium ore in December is expected to increase month - on - month, potentially alleviating the tight supply situation at the ore end. Lithium salt factories generally maintain a high operating rate, and the resumption progress of Jiaxiaowo Ningde needs to be closely monitored. The demand side shows the characteristic of "off - season not being off - season", with high pre - production schedules for power and energy storage terminals in December, driving strong purchasing demand from downstream material factories. The pattern of strong supply and demand continues, providing a bottom - level support for prices. Technically, the current price faces short - term pressure at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and there is a strong motivation for long - position holders to take profits at this level. Be vigilant against potential profit - taking by long - position holders due to increased differences among funds in the context of active market trading recently. In general, in the short term, be cautious about the risk of chasing high prices at the 100,000 yuan/ton mark, and the price may experience a phased correction [103] - The latest price of lithium carbonate futures main contract is 94,840 yuan/ton, up 2,680 yuan from the previous day but down 980 yuan from last week [104] Group 8: Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, with both upstream and downstream having expectations of production cuts. The fundamentals lack substantial improvement momentum. Considering potential supply - side disturbances from winter environmental protection in production areas, the short - term fundamentals of the industry are unlikely to improve. Technically, the futures price has been moving within the Bollinger Bands, and in the short term, it will closely follow the price fluctuations of related products such as polysilicon and coking coal, and is likely to maintain a volatile consolidation trend. In the long - term, the downside space of the price is limited [117] - The latest price of industrial silicon main contract is 8,675 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan or - 1.48% [120]

[★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 根据铁合金在线，本周新疆增开 5 台、云南减少 2 台、四川下 降 14 台、内蒙增开 1 台。周末石河子启动重污染天气 II 级 （橙色）应急响应，关注后续影响。新疆大厂复产，有机硅和 出口需求弱于预期，导致更新平衡表后，12 月至明年一季度工 业硅也将单月累库 1-2 万吨，基本面情况不乐观。硅厂在盘面 高位时进行套保，当前库存压力不大，现货不愿低价出售。下 游在 8800 元/吨一线点价采购，周五期现出货情况尚好。 周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 新疆大厂增产，多晶硅新增交割品牌 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 当前现货龙头一线厂家 N 型致密复投料价格维持 51-53 元/千 克以上，颗粒料维持 50-51 元/千克，东方希望 N 型致密 49-51 元/千克。12 月多晶硅排产预计 11.2 万吨，库存继续累积。终 端需求下行，中游环节降价减产，行业库存高企，多晶硅现货 价格想要逆势上涨几无可能，但在行业自律和平台收储的叙事 下，头部多晶硅企业仍在强势挺价撑市。上下游的割裂感日益 加剧，但考虑到平台公司仍有序推进，我们预期多晶硅现货价 格或仍以持平为主。12 月 5 日广 ...