Workflow
库存紧平衡
icon
Search documents
2025年9月PMI分析:生产带动PMI回升,供需缺口继续扩大
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-09-30 09:17
Group 1: PMI and Economic Indicators - In September 2025, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose to 49.8%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points from the previous month, indicating an improvement in manufacturing sentiment[1] - The production index for September was reported at 51.9%, up from 50.8% in August, reflecting a significant rebound in production activity[2] - The supply-demand gap widened to 2.2 percentage points, indicating that production continues to outpace demand[2] Group 2: Price and Inventory Trends - The PMI for factory prices and raw material purchase prices decreased to 48.2% and 53.2%, respectively, with a notable drop in factory prices attributed to changes in consumer subsidy policies[3] - The average price of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and wire rods fell by 1.83%, 1.48%, and 4.1% month-on-month, reaching 3264 CNY/ton, 3406 CNY/ton, and 3205 CNY/ton respectively[3] - Finished goods inventory index increased by 1.4 percentage points to 48.2%, indicating a tight balance in inventory levels[4] Group 3: Business Performance by Size - Large enterprises saw an increase in their index by 0.5 percentage points to 50.8%, while small enterprises rose by 1.6 percentage points to 48.2%[4] - Medium-sized enterprises experienced a slight decline of 0.1 percentage points to 48.8%[4] - The construction sector's business activity index rose to 49.3%, but both housing and civil engineering indices remained below 50%, indicating ongoing challenges[4] Group 4: Future Outlook - The September PMI rebound and production expansion suggest economic resilience, but the continuous contraction in PMI over six months highlights underlying economic pressures[5] - The fluctuation in inventory indices indicates that the economy has not yet stabilized to provide firms with consistent expectations[5] - Future export pressures and the impact of subsidy policies on production and pricing remain critical factors for economic health[7]