关税风云下的铜铝 五矿证券研究所 有色金属行业 分析师：王小芃 登记编码：S0950523050002 邮箱：wangxiaopeng@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 证券研究报告|行业跟踪 2025/08/21 | 有色金属行业 | | | --- | --- | | 投资评级 | 看好 | 分析师：于柏寒 登记编码：S0950523120002 邮箱：yubaihan@wkzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-61102510 Contents 目录 01 铜铝价格走势复盘 03 供应端偏紧的铝市场 04 铜铝价格展望总结 02 关税风云下"割裂"的铜市 场 今年铜铝在交易什么？ 复盘：关税预期扰动今年铜价 图表1：2025年初至今的铜价走势复盘：关税、冶炼厂减产成为主线 8000 8500 9000 9500 10000 10500 11000 11500 12000 12500 13000 2025-01-08 2025-01-10 2025-01-12 2025-01-14 2025-01-16 2025-01-18 2025-01-20 2025-01-22 2025- ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The planting weather of US soybeans in the outer market remains favorable, showing a weak trend; the downside space of the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system is limited, and the market is gradually shifting to price the supply - demand gap logic of the far - term contracts; the rapeseed system has strengthened in the short term due to the relief of its own warehouse receipt pressure [4]. - There is a strong bullish sentiment for the far - term contracts under the supply - demand gap, and the export premium of Brazilian soybeans supports the price of the far - term contracts from the cost side [9]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price Range Forecast - The price range of soybean meal in the next month is predicted to be 2800 - 3300, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 10.2% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.8%. The price range of rapeseed meal is 2450 - 2750, with a current 20 - day rolling volatility of 12.7% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 7.2% [3]. 3.2 Oil Hedging Strategy | Behavior Orientation | Spot Exposure | Strategy Recommendation | Hedging Tool | Buying/Selling Direction | Hedging Ratio (%) | Suggested Entry Interval | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Trader Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise inventory to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 25 | 3300 - 3400 | | Feed Mill Procurement Management | Short | Buy soybean meal futures at present to lock in procurement costs | M2601 | Buy | 50 | 2850 - 3000 | | Oil Mill Inventory Management | Long | Short soybean meal futures according to enterprise situation to lock in profits and make up for production costs | M2601 | Sell | 50 | 3100 - 3200 | [3] 3.3 Core Contradictions - The outer - market US soybean planting weather is favorable and shows a weak trend; the near - term contracts of the domestic soybean system have limited downside space, and the market is pricing the far - term supply - demand gap; the rapeseed system strengthens due to the relief of warehouse receipt pressure [4]. 3.4 Bullish and Bearish Interpretations - Bullish factors: The basis has rebounded due to some oil mills' shutdowns, and the downside space for the subsequent spot - futures convergence of the 09 contract is limited. The soybean arrivals are expected to have a gap after December. The near - term rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal due to warehouse receipt issues, and the far - term rapeseed supply has uncertainties leading to accelerated marginal destocking [5][6]. 3.5 Oil Futures Prices | Variety | Closing Price | Daily Change | Daily Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Soybean Meal 01 | 3072 | 7 | 0.23% | | Soybean Meal 05 | 2762 | 11 | 0.4% | | Soybean Meal 09 | 3026 | 3 | 0.1% | | Rapeseed Meal 01 | 2463 | 24 | 0.98% | | Rapeseed Meal 05 | 2402 | 15 | 0.63% | | Rapeseed Meal 09 | 2745 | 21 | 0.77% | | CBOT Yellow Soybeans | 990.5 | 0 | 0% | | Off - shore RMB | 7.1868 | 0.0026 | 0.04% | [6] 3.6 Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spreads | Spread Type | Value | Change | | --- | --- | --- | | M01 - 05 | 310 | - 4 | | M05 - 09 | - 264 | 8 | | M09 - 01 | - 46 | - 4 | | RM01 - 05 | 61 | 9 | | RM05 - 09 | - 343 | - 6 | | RM09 - 01 | 282 | - 3 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Spot | 2900 | - 30 | | Soybean Meal Rizhao Basis | - 126 | - 33 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Spot | 2562 | 11 | | Rapeseed Meal Fujian Basis | - 162 | - 35 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Spot Spread | 338 | - 30 | | Soybean and Rapeseed Meal Futures Spread | 281 | - 18 | [10] 3.7 Oil Import Costs and Crushing Profits | Import Item | Price (Yuan/ton) | Daily Change | Weekly Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US Gulf Soybean Import Cost (23%) | 4655.5086 | 29.7162 | - 0.0771 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Cost | 3970.92 | 8.71 | 38.09 | | US Gulf (3%) - US Gulf (23%) Cost Difference | - 756.9933 | 2.162 | 12.6856 | | US Gulf Soybean Import Profit (23%) | - 724.9886 | 29.7162 | 136.5096 | | Brazilian Soybean Import Profit | 106.2403 | - 25.7061 | 0.5465 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Futures Profit | 296 | 86 | 218 | | Canadian Rapeseed Import Spot Profit | 479 | 104 | 238 | [10]

Core Viewpoint - There is a growing perception among economists that Japan's economy may be experiencing a "supply shortage" due to production capacity not keeping up with orders, contrasting with the government's assessment of demand deficiency [1][2]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Gap - The supply and demand gap is a crucial indicator for assessing economic conditions and price trends, with negative values indicating economic stagnation and positive values suggesting overheating [1]. - The Bank of Japan and the Cabinet Office have reported negative supply and demand gaps in recent years, leading to repeated fiscal stimulus measures aimed at boosting demand [1]. - The Cabinet Office has not declared an end to deflation despite a 3% increase in prices, primarily because the supply and demand gap remains negative [1]. Group 2: Discrepancies in Estimates - Private sector estimates, such as those from Societe Generale and Mizuho Research, indicate that Japan's supply and demand gap has been positive since late 2021 and mid-2022, respectively [2]. - The discrepancy between official and private estimates is significant, with a difference of 14 trillion yen (approximately 88 billion USD) reported for the first quarter of 2025 [2]. - Economists attribute the positive supply and demand gap to severe supply capacity shortages rather than economic overheating, particularly highlighting labor shortages [2]. Group 3: Labor Market and Productivity - The potential growth rate, which reflects supply capacity, is influenced by labor, capital investment, and technological innovation, with labor time decreasing due to reforms [3]. - Labor time in Japan is expected to remain below 2019 levels until 2024, primarily due to policies limiting overtime and promoting paid leave [3]. - The Bank of Japan acknowledges the negative impact of labor shortages on supply capacity, indicating a more severe labor market tightness than what macroeconomic supply and demand gaps suggest [3]. Group 4: Investment and Economic Growth - Insufficient investment in machinery has also hindered economic growth, with Japan's capital investment contribution being only one-eighth of that of the United States since 2020 [4]. - Redirecting retained earnings towards investments in growth areas such as artificial intelligence is deemed essential for economic progress [4].

Report 1: Oil and Fat Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View - Palm oil: After the release of the MPOB supply - demand report, the bullish factors are realized. There is a risk of a new round of decline after the end of the current uptrend in crude palm oil futures due to concerns about production growth in July. Long - term, there is a risk of falling below 4,000 ringgit and continuing to weaken. In the domestic market, after a sharp rise, Dalian palm oil futures may face short - term resistance around 8,650 yuan, and it is advisable to closely monitor whether it can effectively stop falling around 8,500 yuan. - Soybean oil: The CBOT soybean oil market is currently less affected by its own fundamentals. The previous biodiesel theme has been digested by the market. At present, the market is mainly affected by the rise of new - crop soybeans in the US and trade relations. In the short term, the fluctuation range of CBOT soybean oil is small, and the narrow - range shock adjustment pattern will continue. In the domestic market, the overstocked oil mills force traders to lower the basis for sales contracts, which has a certain drag on the spot basis quotation. However, due to the expected limited soybean imports in the fourth quarter, the possibility of a significant downward adjustment of the basis quotation is not large. [1] 3. Data Summary - **Soybean oil**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 8,170 yuan on July 9, up 40 yuan or 0.49% from the previous day; the futures price of Y2509 was 7,920 yuan, down 26 yuan or - 0.33%; the basis of Y2509 was 250 yuan, up 35.87%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 137 to 22,826, a decrease of 0.60%. - **Palm oil**: The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangdong was 8,700 yuan on July 9, up 120 yuan or 1.75%; the futures price of P2509 was 8,678 yuan, up 34 yuan or 0.39%; the basis of P2509 was 22 yuan, up 123.40%; the warehouse receipts increased by 184 to 854, an increase of 27.46%. - **Rapeseed oil**: The spot price of Grade 4 rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,680 yuan on July 9, up 50 yuan or 0.52%; the futures price of OI509 was 9,510 yuan, down 88 yuan or - 0.92%; the basis of OI509 was 170 yuan, up 431.25%; the warehouse receipts increased by 301 to 3,021. - **Spreads**: The soybean oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) decreased by 2 to 4, a decrease of 33.33%; the palm oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 18 to 32, an increase of 128.57%; the rapeseed oil inter - period spread (09 - 01) increased by 6 to 60, an increase of 11.11%. The spot soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 110 to - 530, a decrease of 26.19%; the 2509 soybean - palm oil spread decreased by 60 to - 758, a decrease of 8.60%. [1] Report 2: Corn and Corn Starch Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View In the short term, due to the continuous import corn auctions, the market sentiment is bearish, and the spot and futures prices are weak. As the remaining grain is consumed, traders are reluctant to sell, and the decline of corn prices slows down. Downstream deep - processing has maintenance plans and purchases on demand; the breeding end purchases as needed and mainly replenishes inventory on a rigid basis. The overall demand is supported by breeding consumption. On the substitution side, wheat is strongly supported by the purchase - protection policy, the wheat - corn price spread narrows, and the feed substitution increases, limiting the rise of corn. In the medium term, the tight supply of corn, low imports, and increasing breeding consumption support the upward movement of corn in the third quarter. Overall, in the short term, the market sentiment is gradually digested, the decline of corn is limited due to the tight remaining grain, the market fluctuates narrowly, and it is advisable to pay attention to subsequent policy releases and temporarily stay on the sidelines. [3] 3. Data Summary - **Corn**: The futures price of corn 2509 was 2,319 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan or - 0.09%; the basis was 41 yuan, up 5.13%; the north - south trade profit was - 1 yuan, down 20 yuan or - 105.26%; the import profit was 554 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 1.84%. The number of remaining vehicles in Shandong deep - processing in the morning was 173, down 40 or - 18.78%; the open interest increased by 25,610 to 1,604,832, an increase of 1.62%; the warehouse receipts increased by 287 to 202,489, an increase of 0.14%. - **Corn starch**: The futures price of corn starch 2509 was 2,677 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.04%; the basis was 23 yuan, down 1 yuan or - 4.17%; the 9 - 1 spread increased by 8 to 57, an increase of 16.33%; the starch - corn spread on the disk increased by 3 to 358, an increase of 0.85%. The open interest increased by 10,948 to 298,266, an increase of 3.81%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 101 to 22,821, a decrease of 0.44%. [3] Report 3: Sugar Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View In the first half of June, Brazil's sugar production was 2.45 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 696,000 tons or 22.12%. Brazil's increase in the ethanol blending ratio in gasoline supports the raw sugar price. However, the global supply is becoming looser, which puts pressure on raw sugar, and the rebound height is limited. It is expected that raw sugar will maintain a bottom - oscillating pattern. The market demand is weak, the low inventory supports the spot price in Guangxi, the continuous decline of raw sugar, the expansion of import processing profits, and the loosening of processed sugar quotes put pressure on prices. Considering the increase in imports later, the overall domestic supply - demand is marginally looser, and a bearish view is maintained after a rebound. [7][8] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The futures price of sugar 2601 was 5,606 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan or 0.30%; the futures price of sugar 2509 was 5,779 yuan/ton, up 32 yuan or 0.56%; the ICE raw sugar main contract was 16.54 cents/pound, up 0.39 cents or 2.41%. The 1 - 9 spread was - 173 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan or - 9.49%; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 7,728 to 287,247, a decrease of 2.62%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 105 to 22,987, a decrease of 0.45%. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Nanning was 6,040 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.33%; the spot price in Kunming was 6,365 yuan/ton, up 485 yuan or 8.25%. The import price of Brazilian sugar (within the quota) was 4,457 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan or - 0.67%; the import price of Brazilian sugar (outside the quota) was 5,662 yuan/ton, down 39 yuan or - 0.68%. - **Industry situation**: The cumulative national sugar production was 11.1621 million tons, up 1.1989 million tons or 12.03%; the cumulative national sugar sales were 8.1138 million tons, up 1.521 million tons or 23.07%; the cumulative sugar production in Guangxi was 6.465 million tons, up 283,600 tons or 4.59%; the monthly sugar sales in Guangxi were 510,000 tons, down 17,200 tons or - 3.26%. The cumulative national sugar sales rate was 72.59%, up 6.42 percentage points or 9.70%; the cumulative sugar sales rate in Guangxi was 71.85%, up 5.39 percentage points or 8.11%. The national industrial inventory was 3.0483 million tons, down 322,100 tons or - 9.56%. [7] Report 4: Cotton Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The downstream of the cotton industry remains weak, the overall demand is weak, the operating rate of textile enterprises continues to decline, and the finished - product inventory is accumulating. However, the inventory pressure is not large. The profit of textile enterprises has deteriorated from April to May, and there is no obvious continuous upward - driving force in the industrial fundamentals. It is necessary to pay attention to the weather changes in the main production areas in Xinjiang and the downstream demand of the industry. In the short term, the domestic cotton price may fluctuate in a higher range than before the rise in late June. If the downstream remains weak, there is still a risk of decline. [10] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The futures price of cotton 2509 was 13,830 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan or 0.33%; the futures price of cotton 2601 was 13,785 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan or 0.18%; the ICE US cotton main contract was 67.72 cents/pound, up 0.40 cents or 0.59%. The 9 - 1 spread was 45 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 80.00%; the open interest of the main contract increased by 3,542 to 546,763, an increase of 0.65%; the warehouse receipts decreased by 16 to 9,932, a decrease of 0.39%. - **Spot market**: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B was 15,163 yuan/ton, down 12 yuan or - 0.08%; the CC Index of 3128B was 15,184 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan or - 0.06%; the FC Index of M: 1% was 13,545 yuan/ton, down 87 yuan or - 0.64%. - **Industry situation**: The commercial inventory was 282.98 million tons, down 29.71 million tons or - 9.5%; the industrial inventory was 90.30 million tons, down 2.71 million tons or - 2.9%; the import volume was 4 million tons, down 2 million tons or - 33.3%; the bonded - area inventory was 33.60 million tons, down 3.30 million tons or - 8.9%. The yarn inventory days were 27.23 days, up 3.37 days or 14.1%; the grey - cloth inventory days were 36.61 days, up 1.15 days or 3.2%. The cotton shipment volume out of Xinjiang was 53.46 million tons, up 8.86 million tons or 22.6%. [10] Report 5: Meal and Soybean Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The good weather in the US soybean - producing areas and market concerns about US tariffs keep the market at the bottom. The premiums of Brazilian soybeans for August and September shipments have slightly declined recently. As the time window for the arrival of US soybeans approaches, the price of Brazilian soybeans is relatively firm. Currently, the inventory of domestic soybeans and soybean meal continues to rise, the operating rate improves, and there is no significant inventory pressure on soybean meal, and the basis is relatively stable. However, the subsequent supply is expected to be high, and the terminal trading is weak. It is necessary to pay attention to the sustainability of demand. The trend of soybean meal is not yet clear, and the market is bottom - grinding in the short term. [12] 3. Data Summary - **Soybean meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,800 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of M2509 was 2,947 yuan, up 12 yuan or 0.41%; the basis of M2509 was - 147 yuan, down 12 yuan or - 8.89%. The import crushing profit of Brazilian soybeans for September shipments was 37 yuan, up 4 yuan or 12.1%; the warehouse receipts were 42,250, unchanged. - **Rapeseed meal**: The spot price in Jiangsu was 2,480 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of RM2509 was 2,586 yuan, up 10 yuan or 0.39%; the basis of RM2509 was - 106 yuan, down 10 yuan or - 10.42%. The import crushing profit of Canadian rapeseed for November shipments was 155 yuan, down 81 yuan or - 34.32%; the warehouse receipts were 15,663, down 136 or - 0.86%. - **Soybeans**: The spot price of Harbin soybeans was 3,960 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 1 contract was 4,111 yuan, up 7 yuan or 0.17%; the basis of the main soybean No. 1 contract was - 151 yuan, down 7 yuan or - 4.86%. The spot price of imported soybeans in Jiangsu was 3,660 yuan, unchanged; the futures price of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 3,582 yuan, unchanged; the basis of the main soybean No. 2 contract was 78 yuan, unchanged. [12] Report 6: Pig Industry 1. Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information provided. 2. Core View The spot price of pigs fluctuates. Recently, the enthusiasm for secondary fattening is limited, the slaughter volume increases slightly, the market demand is weak, the price is stable and weak, and the market lacks upward - driving force. Currently, the breeding profit has returned to a low level, the market is cautious about capacity expansion, and there is no basis for a significant decline in the market. The market expects a wave of market conditions in July and August due to the impact of piglet diarrhea at the beginning of the year. The short - term sentiment is still strong, but the live - pig inventory continues to be postponed, and the pressure on the 09 contract is increasing. It is necessary to pay attention to the pressure above 14,500 yuan. [15][16] 3. Data Summary - **Futures market**: The main - contract basis was - 185 yuan/ton, down 960 yuan or - 123.87%; the futures price of pig 2511 was 13,600 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan or - 0.62%; the futures price of pig 2509 was 14,265 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan or - 0.07%. The 9 - 11 spread was 665 yuan, up 75 yuan or 12.71%; the open interest of the main contract decreased by 1,328 to 71,740, a decrease of 1.82%; the warehouse receipts were 447, unchanged. - **Spot market**: The spot price in Henan was 14,080 yuan/ton, down 970 yuan; the spot price in Shandong was 14,170 yuan/ton, down 1,030 yuan; the spot price in Sichuan was 14,430 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan; the spot price in Liaoning was 14,810 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan; the spot price in Guangdong was 16,590 yuan/ton, unchanged

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a structural rally driven by industrial demand and financial attribute recovery, with spot silver prices surpassing $36 and reaching a 13-year high [1][3]. Market Driving Logic: Dual Dynamics of Supply-Demand Gap and Policy Window - Industrial demand is reconstructing the price system, with silver consumption in the photovoltaic sector expected to grow significantly, leading to a projected supply-demand gap of 149 million ounces by 2025 [3][4]. - The financial attributes of silver are recovering, with a high probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, which is expected to provide upward momentum for silver prices [4]. Trading Strategy: Risk Control and Tool Selection in a Volatile Market - A combination of trend tracking and range trading is recommended, with specific signals identified for bullish trends when silver prices break certain resistance levels [5]. - A multi-dimensional risk control system is in place to manage extreme market conditions, ensuring efficient order execution and minimal slippage [6]. Platform Selection: Differentiated Advantages of Compliance Ecosystem and Technological Innovation - The trading platform offers a rapid trading experience with execution speeds as low as 0.01 seconds, enhancing user efficiency during volatile market conditions [9]. - Cost structure optimization is achieved through a "zero commission + ultra-low spread" strategy, significantly reducing trading costs for high-frequency traders [10]. - Full-chain compliance guarantees are established, ensuring traceability and independent fund storage, which mitigates the risk of fraudulent transactions [11]. Outlook for the Second Half of the Year: Capitalizing on Dual Dividends of Supply-Demand Gap and Policy Shift - The period around the Federal Reserve's September meeting is identified as a critical window for potential investment in silver, with recommendations to build positions if the gold-silver ratio falls below 80:1 [12]. - Long-term strategies suggest increasing silver allocation in core asset portfolios to 10%-15%, aligning with global central bank trends [12].

Group 1: Precious Metals - Gold - The geopolitical situation overseas has eased, leading to a short-term fluctuation in gold prices. As of June 27, the COMEX gold futures contract fell by 2.9% to $3,286.1 per ounce. The SPDR Gold ETF increased by 0.5% to 954.82 tons [2][3] - The U.S. core PCE price index rose by 2.7% year-on-year in May, the highest since February 2025, with expectations of a 2.6% increase. The previous value was revised from 2.5% to 2.6% [2][3] - Following the PCE data release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut remained largely unchanged. The easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East has led to a temporary decline in risk aversion, contributing to a slight drop in gold prices this week. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and a weakening dollar [2][3] Group 2: Industrial Metals - Copper - As of June 27, the LME copper futures contract rose by 2.3% to $9,879 per ton. Domestic copper social inventory reached 130,100 tons as of June 19, a decrease of 15,800 tons [3][4] - The LME copper inventory stood at 91,300 tons as of June 20, continuing to approach historical lows. The import copper concentrate index reported a negative $44.81 per ton on June 27. The annual negotiations between Antofagasta and Chinese smelters resulted in a mid-year TC long-term price dropping to $0 per ton, indicating a tight balance for copper concentrate in 2025-2026 [3][4] - The easing of geopolitical risks and expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut have improved macroeconomic sentiment, benefiting copper prices. The combination of rigid supply, low inventory, and a weakening dollar is expected to accelerate the price elasticity of copper [3][4] Group 3: Industrial Metals - Aluminum - As of June 27, the LME aluminum futures contract increased by 1.3% to $2,595 per ton. Domestic aluminum social inventory reached 463,000 tons as of June 20, an increase of 14,000 tons [4] - The LME aluminum inventory was at 345,200 tons as of June 26, with global electrolytic aluminum inventory levels remaining low. Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity has been operating at high levels, with no immediate expectations for new projects to come online [4] - The rising aluminum water ratio may significantly impact the electrolytic aluminum spot market, as many northern aluminum plants have increased their aluminum water ratio, leading to a decrease in ingot production and a potential decline in aluminum ingot inventory. The mid-term outlook for aluminum prices is positive due to a tight supply-demand balance and low global inventory levels [4] Group 4: Investment Recommendations - The company suggests focusing on the gold, copper, and aluminum sectors. For gold, ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties and the strengthening of gold's safe-haven attributes are highlighted, with a long-term positive outlook. Recommended stock: Chifeng Jilong Gold Mining [5] - For copper, the gradual recovery of domestic demand and the acceleration of industrialization in emerging markets are expected to open up long-term demand for refined copper. The tight supply of copper concentrate is also noted. Recommended stock: Zijin Mining [5] - In the aluminum sector, the weak supply and strong demand dynamics are anticipated to accelerate, leading to a potential rise in aluminum prices. Recommended stock: Tianshan Aluminum [5]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market experienced a significant surge, with spot silver prices rising over 5% in a single day, reaching a three-month high of $34.78 per ounce, driven by geopolitical tensions and industrial demand [1][3][4]. Group 1: Geopolitical and Economic Factors - Escalating geopolitical risks, particularly the attack by Ukraine on Russian airbases, and renewed trade tensions due to potential tariff increases by the Trump administration, have heightened market anxiety, prompting a shift towards safe-haven assets like silver [3]. - U.S. economic data, including a drop in the ISM manufacturing index to 48.5 and a decline in export orders to a record low of 40.1, further fueled the demand for safe-haven assets [3]. Group 2: Industrial Demand and Supply Dynamics - Silver's industrial demand is projected to reach 22,110 tons in 2024, accounting for 58% of total demand, driven by sectors such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [4]. - A tightening supply forecast indicates a growing supply deficit, expected to expand from 6,003 tons in 2024 to 7,248 tons by 2027, providing strong support for silver prices [4]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Investment Trends - The surge in silver prices has led to a significant increase in trading volume, with a 120% rise in silver trading and a notable spike in investor inquiries [1][3]. - The iShares Silver Trust saw a record single-day increase in holdings, and silver-related stocks in the A-share market experienced substantial gains, indicating heightened investor interest [7]. - Volatility in the futures market has surged, with a 30-day volatility reaching 58%, and a significant increase in bullish sentiment reflected in the options market [7]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Market Sentiment - The upcoming U.S. non-farm payroll data is a key focus, as stronger-than-expected results could dampen expectations for interest rate cuts, potentially leading to a price correction in silver [8][10]. - Despite short-term volatility risks, the long-term outlook remains positive, with expectations of a doubling in silver prices by year-end due to persistent supply shortages and structural growth in industrial demand [8][10].

供给端：爆炸或影响硝化棉产能9000吨 #供需缺口导致硝化棉价格持续上涨，2023年底至2024年初，硝化棉均价达到28，268元/吨，创十年新高。 2024年6月，国内民用型号硝化棉价格跃升至4万元/吨，部分产品价格跳涨至5万元/吨，价格涨幅显著。 据黄页88网，衡水建民纤维素有限公司位于衡水武邑县桥头镇光明村村西，硝化棉年产销量在9000吨。 据中金企信国际咨询数据，受环保政策、安全生产标准升级及企业关停等多重因素的影响，全球硝化棉总产能从 2023年的26.1万吨降至2024年的19.8万吨，我国硝化棉总产能从2021年的16.4万吨降至2024年的7万吨。 #供需缺口导致硝化棉价格持续上涨，2023年底至2024年初，硝化棉均价达到28，268元/吨，创十年新高。 #本次爆炸或影响硝化棉产能9000吨，#供需格局或进一步偏紧。 2024年6月，国内 供给端：爆炸或影响硝化棉产能9000吨 据中金企信国际咨询数据，受环保政策、安全生产标准升级及企业关停等多重因素的影响，全球硝化棉总产能从 2023年的26.1万吨降至2024年的19.8万吨，我国硝化棉总产能从2021年的16.4万吨降至2024年的7万 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report presents a comprehensive analysis of China's economic situation through various high - frequency indicators, showing a mixed picture of economic trends with some sectors declining and others recovering [1][2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Economic Index - The China Weekly Economic Index (WEI) remained flat at 5.0%. The WEI production sub - index was 4.6%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous value, and the WEI demand sub - index was 5.7%, unchanged from the previous value. The supply - demand gap was 1.2%, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Production - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of rebar production was - 1.2%, down 1.1 percentage points from the previous value. The blast furnace operating rate was 83.7%, down 0.4 percentage points. The automobile semi - steel tire operating rate was 78.2%, down 0.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average daily coal consumption of major coastal power plants was 1.4%, up 0.5 percentage points [1]. 3.3 Infrastructure - The cement shipping rate was 40.5%, down 1.0 percentage point from the previous value. The cement mill operating rate was 41.8%, down 0.2 percentage points. The petroleum asphalt plant operating rate was 30.8%, down 3.6 percentage points [1]. 3.4 Real Estate - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the commercial housing sales area in 30 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.8%, up 5.1 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the land acquisition area of 100 large - and medium - sized cities was - 5.5%, down 4.9 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.5 Consumption - The year - on - year of the average daily retail sales of passenger cars was 14.0%, down 16.0 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of movie box office was - 47.2%, down 3.8 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the subway passenger volume in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen was 1.8%, down 1.2 percentage points [2]. 3.6 Export - South Korea's export year - on - year in mid - May was 20.3%, up 44.1 percentage points from the previous period. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) was - 40.4%, down 2.4 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) remained unchanged [2]. 3.7 CPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the agricultural product wholesale price 200 index was - 3.3%, down 0.4 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of pork was 1.4%, down 0.5 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the average wholesale price of 28 key monitored vegetables was - 9.0%, down 1.2 percentage points [3]. 3.8 PPI - The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Nanhua Composite Index was - 10.7%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous value. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Brent crude oil spot price was - 22.6%, up 1.1 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the rebar price was - 13.3%, down 0.6 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the Qinhuangdao Port steam coal closing price was - 26.2%, down 2.7 percentage points. The 4 - week moving average year - on - year of the cement price index was 12.0%, down 2.5 percentage points [3].

Core Viewpoint - Despite the Japanese government's release of over 300,000 tons of reserve rice, rice prices continue to rise, with the average retail price for a 5-kilogram bag reaching 4,220 yen, more than double the price from the previous year [1][2]. Group 1: Price Trends - The average retail price of 5-kilogram rice has reached 4,220 yen (approximately 214.12 RMB), marking a record high and an increase of 92.1% year-on-year [2][11]. - The price of 2-kilogram rice ranges from 2,080 to 2,480 yen, equivalent to approximately 26.94 to 32.11 RMB per kilogram, indicating a continuous upward trend in rice prices [3]. Group 2: Supply Issues - Many supermarkets have implemented purchase limits due to rice shortages, with some stores displaying nearly empty rice shelves [1][2]. - The government has released 210,000 tons of reserve rice since March, but the circulation of this rice has been minimal, with only 426 tons reaching retailers by the end of March [7]. Group 3: Government Response - The Japanese government plans to release an additional 100,000 tons of reserve rice and will continue monthly releases until July, but the effectiveness of these measures remains in question [6][9]. - Criticism has arisen regarding the timing and scale of the reserve rice releases, with many consumers feeling that the government's actions have been too slow [6][8]. Group 4: Consumer Behavior - Increasingly, Japanese consumers are turning to imports from countries like South Korea, India, and Thailand, with reports of individuals bringing back rice during travels [4][5]. - The high rice prices are affecting consumer spending habits, leading to a more cautious approach to expenditures [11]. Group 5: Economic Impact - The rise in rice prices is contributing to overall inflation, with the core consumer price index rising by 3.2% in March, driven largely by food prices [11][12]. - Analysts suggest that the persistent inflation and rising food costs may complicate the Bank of Japan's monetary policy, potentially limiting future interest rate hikes [12].