Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction central enterprises sector, including China Railway, China Chemical, China Construction, and China Metallurgical [12][13][32]. Core Insights - The construction central enterprises are expected to see improved profitability driven by policy goals aimed at stabilizing investment. Order data shows a recovery in order growth starting from Q2 2025, with an anticipated narrowing of performance declines by Q4 2025 [1][16]. - The overall valuation of the nine major construction central enterprises is at historical lows, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 0.45 and a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 6.66, indicating strong safety margins [2][19]. - Institutional holdings in the construction sector are at low levels, suggesting a healthy chip structure and potential for recovery in key stocks [3][22]. Summary by Sections Order Growth and Performance - Cumulative order growth rates for construction central enterprises from Q1 to Q4 2025 are -2.0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, and +1.0%, respectively, indicating a recovery trend [1][16]. - The report anticipates that the performance decline of construction central enterprises will narrow in Q4 2025 due to improved order growth [1][16]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the overall PB for the nine major construction central enterprises is 0.45, slightly above the historical low of 0.42, while the overall PE is 6.66, still below the historical median of 7.66 [2][19]. Institutional Holdings - As of Q4 2025, active funds hold 0.40% of the construction sector, while index funds hold 0.16%, leading to a combined holding of 0.28%, significantly lower than the 0.7%-1% range seen in 2021-2022 [3][22]. Catalysts for Growth - Several potential catalysts for the construction central enterprises include resource business revaluation for China Railway, chemical price rebounds for China Chemical, and increased investment in the power grid for China Electric Power and China Energy Construction [4][26]. - The upcoming "14th Five-Year Plan" is expected to bring about fiscal policies that could further stimulate the sector [4][26]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include: - China Railway (A/H): Benefiting from resource revaluation, with a combined value of 1,894 billion CNY for its resource and engineering segments, indicating a potential upside of 35% [5][27]. - China Chemical: Positioned to benefit from chemical price rebounds, with a current PB of 0.84, indicating a strong safety margin [9][28]. - China Construction: Expected to benefit from stabilizing real estate expectations, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% [10][30]. - China Metallurgical: Anticipated to improve significantly post divestment of its loss-making real estate business, with a combined valuation potential of 794 billion CNY [11][31].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the construction central enterprises sector, including China Railway, China Chemical, China Construction, and China Metallurgical [12][13][32]. Core Insights - The construction central enterprises are expected to see improved profitability driven by policy goals aimed at stabilizing investment and increasing central budget investment in 2026. Order growth has shown signs of recovery, with cumulative order growth rates for 2025 Q1-Q4 at -2.0%, +0.2%, +1.3%, and +1.0% respectively, indicating resilience among leading firms [1][16]. - The overall valuation of the nine major construction central enterprises is at historical lows, with a Price-to-Book (PB) ratio of 0.45 and a Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio of 6.66, suggesting a strong margin of safety for investors [2][19]. - Institutional holdings in the construction sector are at low levels, with active funds holding only 0.40% of the sector, indicating significant underweighting compared to historical averages [3][22]. Summary by Sections Order Growth and Market Conditions - The report highlights a recovery in order growth for construction central enterprises, with expectations for performance improvement in Q4 2025 as orders stabilize and infrastructure investment accelerates in 2026 [1][16]. - The central government's focus on stabilizing investment and increasing budget allocations is expected to support revenue and profit growth for these enterprises [1][16]. Valuation Metrics - As of January 30, 2026, the construction central enterprises exhibit a PB of 0.45, slightly above the historical low of 0.42, and a PE of 6.66, which is still below the historical median of 7.66, indicating a favorable entry point for investors [2][19]. Institutional Holdings - As of Q4 2025, the construction sector's market capitalization represents only 1.6% of the total A-share market, with a significant reduction in institutional holdings compared to previous years, suggesting potential for recovery in stock prices as institutional interest returns [3][22]. Catalysts for Growth - Several catalysts are identified for the construction central enterprises, including resource revaluation for China Railway, chemical price rebounds for China Chemical, and increased investment in power grid infrastructure benefiting China Electric Power and China Energy Construction [4][26]. - The upcoming Two Sessions and the start of the 14th Five-Year Plan in 2026 are expected to bring additional fiscal policies that could further stimulate the sector [4][26]. Recommended Stocks - Key recommendations include: - **China Railway (A/H)**: Strong resource base with significant revaluation potential, estimated combined value of 1,894 billion CNY for A shares and 1,535 billion CNY for H shares, indicating a 35% and 54% upside respectively [5][27]. - **China Chemical**: Positioned to benefit from chemical price rebounds, with a current PB of 0.84, indicating a solid margin of safety [9][28]. - **China Construction**: Expected to benefit from stabilizing real estate expectations, with a projected dividend yield of 5.5% [10][30]. - **China Metallurgical**: Anticipated to improve significantly post divestment of loss-making real estate operations, with a potential valuation increase of 22% to 74% [11][31].