| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 消费旺季进入尾声，供给过剩压力不断上升，油价趋势仍向下。短期地缘 | | 原油 | | 风险释放，风险溢价挤出；供需方面，油价进入旺季尾声，原油累库量下 | | ★★ | 看空 | 降，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力 | | | | 较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略： | | | | 轻仓试空。 | | | | 估值修复，成本端再度走弱，短线承压。成本端油价再度转弱，下方仍有 | | LPG | 谨慎看空 | 压缩空间；LPG 估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平；下游化工需求尚 | | ★ | | 可，PDH 开工率环比下降，但仍高于 70%；供给端和库存变化不大，偏中 | | | | 性。策略：暂时观望。 | | L | | 成本支撑转弱，期现同跌，9 月季节性旺季将临，供需基本面矛盾并不突 | | | | 出。本周装置计划重启增多，预计产量增加。整体检修量维持同期高位。 | | ★ | 空头盘整 | 棚膜旺季陆续开启，农膜开工率 5 连增，需求 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 地缘风险上升，油价短线反弹，但供给过剩压力不断上升，油价趋势仍向 下。近期地缘风险上升，美俄会谈后，俄乌冲突继续，乌克兰袭击俄罗斯 | | 原油 | 谨慎看空 | 炼厂，美国新增对伊朗制裁；供需方面，油价进入旺季尾声，随着 OPEC+ | | ★ | | 逐渐扩产，原油供给过剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，供给端重点 | | | | 关注 60 美元附近美国页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：买入看跌期权， | | | | 轻仓试空。 | | | | 估值修复，下游开工回落，关注成本端油价变动。成本端油价短线反弹， 但趋势仍然向下；估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平；下游化工需求 | | LPG | | | | ★ | 多单止盈 | 尚可，PDH 开工率环比下降，但仍高于 70%；供给端和库存变化不大，偏 | | | | 中性。策略：估值回归，主力有超涨迹象，警惕成本端走弱，多单止盈。 | | L | | 成本支撑好转，期现同涨，基差走弱，旺季启动节奏缓慢，社会库存由跌 | | | 空头反弹 | 转涨。本周装置计划重启增 ...

聚酯产业风险管理日报 ——EG显性库存延续去化，价格震荡偏强 2025/08/25 戴一帆（投资咨询证号：Z0015428） 周嘉伟（期货从业证号：F03133676） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 【利多解读 】 1、韩国财长宣布韩国石化企业将同意每年削减高达370万吨的石脑油裂解产能。若最终落地，将对乙二醇的 原料供应以及乙烯制成本造成冲击，最终兑现情况仍需观察。 . 聚酯价格区间预测 | | 价格区间预测（月度） | 当前波动率（20日滚动） | 当前波动率历史百分位（3年） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 乙二醇 | 4300-4700 | 9.09% | 1.4% | | PX | 6500-7400 | 11.78% | 17.7% | | PTA | 4400-5300 | 9.30% | 4.6% | | 瓶片 | 5800-6500 | 7.92% | 0.9% | source： 南华研究,同花顺 聚酯套保策略表 | 行为导向 | 情景分析 | 现货敞口 | 策略推荐 | 套保工具 | 买卖方向 | 套保比例（%） | 建议入场区间 | | ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The chemical industry is currently at the bottom of the cycle, but leading Chinese companies have strong cash flow and low debt ratios, which may enhance potential dividend yields as capacity expansion slows down [1][3][5] - Global GDP growth supports chemical demand, and changes on the supply side combined with demand growth are expected to lead to a recovery in industry prosperity [1][4] Key Insights - The "anti-involution" policy aims to control new capacity in sectors like coal chemical, refining, and polyurethane, which may still yield considerable dividend rates even at the cycle's bottom [1][5] - The industrial silicon and soda ash sectors, which are currently in surplus, have greater elasticity due to restrictions on existing and new capacities [1][5] - The oil and gas chemical sector has begun to see positive free cash flow in 2024, indicating a gradual improvement in the industry [8] Financial Metrics - In 2024, the net cash flow for the chemical industry is projected to shrink to nearly 20 billion, while total operating cash flow exceeds 250 billion [7] - Capital expenditures are expected to decrease from 350 billion to below 300 billion [7] - By 2025 or 2026, the industry is anticipated to generate positive net free cash flow, marking a historic shift [7] Company-Specific Insights - Hualu Hengsheng's market value in 2024 is approximately 50.6 billion, with cash flow expected to rise from 5 billion in 2025 to 8.3 billion by 2027, suggesting attractive dividend yields even in a downturn [9] - The European chemical production capacity utilization is at a historical low of around 74%, indicating that high-cost production is unlikely to recover, which benefits Chinese companies with cost advantages [10][11] Future Trends - The chemical industry is expected to see a rebound in prosperity due to low inventory levels and attractive valuations [11] - The exit of high-cost European production will allow Chinese leaders to further consolidate and expand their market positions [11] - The polyurethane sector is currently at a cyclical low, but price recovery is anticipated due to supply constraints and demand growth [18][19] Challenges and Opportunities - The olefin industry faces challenges with low prices, but strict approval processes for new capacities may lead to a recovery if production contracts [16] - The refining sector is grappling with overcapacity and outdated facilities, but the anti-involution policy may help improve market conditions for major players [17] - The organic silicon market is at a historical low, but limited new capacity and potential overseas exits may lead to a recovery in the medium to long term [24][25][26] Sector-Specific Recommendations - Focus on companies in controlled capacity sectors like coal chemicals (e.g., Hualu Hengsheng, Baofeng Energy) and refining (e.g., Sinopec) for potential dividend yields [5][17] - Monitor the industrial silicon market for companies like Hesheng Silicon Industry, which may see profit doubling if prices recover [32] - In the soda ash sector, companies like Boyuan Chemical are worth watching as they navigate a challenging market [33] Conclusion - The chemical industry is poised for a potential recovery driven by policy changes, strong cash flows from leading companies, and a favorable global economic backdrop. Investors should focus on companies with strong fundamentals and those positioned to benefit from supply-side constraints and market shifts.

MEG周度观点：情绪偏暖，易涨难跌 南华期货聚酯产业周报（20250824） ——订单陆续启动，需求边际好转 戴一帆（投资咨询资格证证号：Z0015428 ） 周嘉伟（期货从业资格证证号：F03133676 ） 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 周度观点 【库存】华东港口库至54.7万吨，环比上期减少0.6万吨。 【装置】盛虹一线前期停车后重启中；陕煤渭化30w近期停车检修；内蒙古建元26w降负准备检修；新疆天盈 15w重启后正常运行。海外方面，马油75w近期重启招标；美国乐天70w近期重启。 【基本面情况】 基本面方面，供应端油煤双升，总负荷升至73.16%（+6.77%）；其中，乙烯制方面，浙石化重启后已提 负至满开，盛虹空分影响短停后重启运行；煤制方面陕煤渭化停车、建元降负，天盈重启运行，部分装置提 负，煤制负荷升至81.25%（+0.78%）；下周建元计划检修，沃能、盛虹计划重启提负，关注兑现情况，总负 荷预计将继续上调。效益方面，原料端原油、乙烯、动力煤均小幅走强，受益于绝对价格上涨，EG各路线利 润均有小幅修复。库存方面，本周到港计划较少，港口发货尚可，下周一港口显性库存预计去库3 ...

| 品种 | 核心观点 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | | | 库存下降叠加美新增对伊朗制裁，油价短线反弹，但俄乌地缘缓和，供给 | | 原油 | | 过剩压力不断上升，油价趋势仍向下。美俄会谈后，俄乌冲突结束预期上 | | ★ | 谨慎看空 | 升；供需方面，油价进入旺季尾声，随着 OPEC+逐渐扩产，原油供给过 | | | | 剩压力逐渐上升，油价下行压力较大，供给端重点关注 60 美元附近美国 | | | | 页岩油新钻井盈亏平衡点。策略：买入看跌期权。 | | | | 估值修复，下游开工回落，关注成本端油价变动。成本端油价短线反弹， | | | | 但趋势仍然向下；估值修复，主力合约基差处于正常水平；下游化工需求 | | LPG ★ | 多单止盈 | 尚可，PDH 开工率环比下降，但仍高于 70%；供给端和库存变化不大，偏 | | | | 中性。策略：估值回归，主力有超涨迹象，警惕成本端走弱，多单止盈。 | | | | 基本面供需双强，社会库存显著去化，供需矛盾不大，期现同涨，基差走 | | L | | 强。本周装置计划重启增多，预计产量增加。棚膜旺季陆续开启，农膜开 | ...

苯乙烯、PTA、烧碱 一、逻辑分析 （一）苯乙烯 苯乙烯本周周内下探两月来新低后出现小幅放量上行，对短期 压力再度发起测试。从时间点上看，反弹上行出现于化工反内卷传 闻之后，而周内苯乙烯基本面并未出现大幅好转，非一体化装置虽 仍有亏损，但一体化装置高利润下苯乙烯周度产量同环比再创新高， 下游需求虽然同样保持增长，但供应端年内增速更快，使苯乙烯库 存同比继续维持历史高位。目前苯乙烯基本面处于高利润，高产量、 高库存结构中，未来 9-10 月继续面临新装置集中投产压力，高供应 压力将继续保持，下游库存同样历史高位下苯乙烯基本面驱动依然 向下。苯乙烯盘面处于弱现实基本面与短期偏强的宏观情绪之中， 短期随盘面偏强看待，中期等待情绪释放后寻逢高空机会。 （二）PTA PTA 本周表现偏强，低位震荡后出现放量上行使盘面短期结构 转多。从时间点上看，放量上行出现于化工反内卷传闻之后，PTA 自身基本面近期持续转好，偏强看待，供应端由于此前意外检修增 加，开工环比回落，供应压力较低，下游终端逐步进入旺季，开工 回升，后续预期同样偏强，一减一增之下 PTA 前期累库格局转向去 库，自身供需短期偏强，但成本端原油的中期过剩预期仍 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Oil**: Cautiously bearish [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Take profit on long positions [1][11][13] - **L**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Short - term bearish rebound, try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [1][25][28] - **PX**: Bullish, hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Bullish, hold long positions [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Bullish, look for buying opportunities on 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Cautiously bullish, hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Cautiously bearish, lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Cautiously bearish, reduce short positions [5][61][64] 2. Report's Core Views - **Oil**: Short - term rebound due to inventory decline and new sanctions on Iran, but long - term downward trend due to geopolitical easing and supply surplus [1][7][8] - **LPG**: Pay attention to oil price changes at the cost end, take profit on long positions as the upstream oil supply exceeds demand [1][11][14] - **L**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastics have positive fundamental expectations, and it is advisable to try to go long at lows [1][16][18] - **PP**: Follow the chemical sector's rebound, but the supply is still under pressure. Try to go long on pullbacks [1][20][23] - **PVC**: Warehouse receipts increase, and there is pressure on the near - term contract. Reduce short positions at low prices [1][25][28] - **PX**: Supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease, but macro - policies are favorable. Hold long positions [1][30][32] - **PTA**: Supply - demand is in a tight balance, and macro - factors are positive. Look for low - buying opportunities [2][34][37] - **MEG**: Total supply increases, but inventory is low. Hold long positions and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks [2][39][41] - **Methanol**: Fundamentals are weak, but expectations are positive. Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract [3][43][45] - **Urea**: Weak fundamentals, but the export window to India is open. Hold 01 long positions [3][47][49] - **Asphalt**: Oil price has room to decline, and supply increases. Lightly short [5][52][54] - **Glass**: Supply is under pressure, and demand is weak. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][56][59] - **Soda Ash**: Supply remains high, and inventory accumulates. Reduce short positions at low prices [5][61][64] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rose, with WTI up 1.29%, Brent up 0.42%, and SC up 0.98% [7] - **Basic Logic**: New sanctions on Iran and inventory decline led to a short - term rebound, but long - term pressure comes from OPEC+ production increase and weakening demand [8] - **Fundamentals**: Azerbaijan's oil exports decreased, India's imports hit a low, and US commercial crude inventory decreased [9] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Buy put options, focus on the range of [480 - 500] for SC [10] LPG - **Market Review**: On August 21, the PG main contract closed at 4386 yuan/ton, up 1.65% [12] - **Basic Logic**: Cost - end oil price rebounds, and the valuation is reasonable. Supply increases slightly, and demand from some downstream industries declines [13] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Be wary of the weakening of the cost - end oil price and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4350 - 4450] for PG [14] L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7386 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan [18] - **Basic Logic**: The chemical sector rebounds at low valuations. Plastic fundamentals are expected to improve, with increased maintenance and approaching peak demand season [18] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long at lows, focus on the range of [7300 - 7500] for L [18] PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7048 yuan/ton, down 8 yuan [22] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price stabilizes, and the chemical sector is strong. Supply is under pressure, but demand in the peak season starts, and prices have support at the bottom [23] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Try to go long on pullbacks, focus on the range of [7000 - 7200] for PP [23] PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan [27] - **Basic Logic**: Warehouse receipts increase, export negatives are realized, and inventory accumulates. Supply may increase in the future [28] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [28] PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton, up 74 yuan [30] - **Basic Logic**: Supply - side devices slightly increase production, demand - side PTA processing fees are low, and inventory is high. Macro - policies are favorable [31][32] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, look for buying opportunities on pullbacks, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6918 - 7020] for PX511 [32] PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan [36] - **Basic Logic**: PTA processing fees are low, supply - side devices reduce production, and demand is expected to pick up during the peak season. Macro - factors are positive [37] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, buy put options, and look for buying opportunities on TA pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4840 - 4920] for TA01 [38] MEG - **Market Review**: On August 15, the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan [40] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases slightly, but inventory is low. Demand is expected to rebound during the peak season, and macro - policies are favorable [41] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold long positions, do not chase the market, and look for buying opportunities on pullbacks. Focus on the range of [4460 - 4530] for EG01 [42] Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the methanol main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton, down 23 yuan [44] - **Basic Logic**: Supply pressure increases as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory accumulates. But there are positive expectations [45] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Look for buying opportunities on the 01 contract at lows and sell 01 put options. Focus on the range of [2405 - 2445] for MA01 [46] Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the urea main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [48] - **Basic Logic**: Supply increases as device maintenance decreases. Domestic demand is weak, but export is good. There is support at the cost end [49][50] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Hold 01 long positions, sell call options due to increased short - term volatility. Focus on the range of [1760 - 1800] for UR01 [51] Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 21, the BU main contract closed at 3464 yuan/ton, up 0.32% [53] - **Basic Logic**: Oil price has room to decline, supply increases, and inventory decreases slightly. Valuation is high [54] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Lightly short, focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [55] Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1156 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan [58] - **Basic Logic**: Supply is under pressure with new production lines expected to start. Demand is weak due to low downstream orders and falling real - estate completion area [59] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [59] Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1306 yuan/ton, down 3 yuan [63] - **Basic Logic**: Supply remains high with insufficient planned maintenance. Demand is mostly rigid, and inventory accumulates [64] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Reduce short positions at low prices, focus on the range of [1280 - 1350] for SA [64]

Market Performance - On August 21, A-shares showed mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.13%, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.06% and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.47% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24,241 billion RMB, showing a slight increase compared to the previous trading day [2] Index Performance - The China A50 Index rose by 0.77% with a year-to-date increase of 5.91% [2] - The CSI 300 Index increased by 0.39% year-to-date, showing an 8.98% rise [2] - The ChiNext Index has a year-to-date decline of 21.19% [2] Sector Performance - The Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery sector led with a rise of 1.50%, followed by the Oil and Petrochemical sector at 1.39% and Beauty and Personal Care at 0.98% [7] - The Machinery Equipment sector saw a decline of 1.08%, while the Electrical Equipment sector fell by 0.98% [7] Public Utilities - The implementation of the "Price Law Amendment Draft" aims to break the "loss-subsidy" cycle, with market-oriented pricing for gas and electricity entering the implementation phase [8] - The performance and valuation of public utility companies are expected to improve as subsidy and pricing policies are set to be concentrated in 2025 [8] Chemical Sector - Significant capital inflow was observed in the chemical sector, with the largest chemical ETF (159870) seeing a net subscription of 1.23 billion units, bringing its total size to 6.5 billion RMB [9] - Two potential paths for the chemical sector's anti-involution were identified: proactive industry self-discipline and passive policy-driven improvements [10] Investment Opportunities - The report suggests focusing on high-quality green electricity operators and premium offshore wind projects as the new energy sector fully enters the market [8] - The chemical sector's leading companies are expected to have strong bottom configuration value due to their sensitivity to policy changes [10]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Take profit on long positions [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish consolidation [1] - PVC: Cautiously bearish [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [1] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Methanol: Bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bullish [2] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [2] - Glass: Cautiously bearish [2] - Soda Ash: Cautiously bearish [2] Core Views - Crude oil prices are expected to decline in the long - term due to geopolitical easing and increasing supply - side pressure, but may rebound in the short - term due to unexpected inventory drops [1][5]. - LPG prices have rebounded in the short - term due to cost stabilization and valuation repair, but investors should take profit on long positions due to potential cost weakening [1]. - L prices may improve due to expected production cuts in South Korea and approaching peak demand season, and investors can consider buying on dips [1]. - PP prices face limited rebound space due to weak industry expectations and high warehouse receipts, and it's advisable to wait and see [1]. - PVC prices are under pressure due to increasing warehouse receipts, inventory accumulation, and policy - affected exports, and short positions should be held [1]. - PX prices are expected to rise as the domestic chemical industry's "anti - involution" may start, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for low - buying opportunities [1]. - PTA prices may increase with the approaching consumption peak season and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [1]. - Ethylene glycol prices may rise due to low inventory and potential "anti - involution" policies, and investors can stop loss on short positions and look for long - position opportunities [2]. - Methanol prices may increase as negative factors are expected to subside, and investors can look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract [2]. - Urea prices may be supported by potential fertilizer exports to India, and long positions in the 01 contract can be held [2]. - Asphalt prices are under pressure due to sufficient raw material supply and increasing supply - demand imbalance, and short positions can be lightly established [2]. - Glass prices are expected to decline due to weak supply - demand fundamentals and increasing inventory, and short positions should be held [2]. - Soda ash prices are likely to fall due to high supply, inventory accumulation, and industrial hedging pressure, and short positions should be held [2]. Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - **Market Review**: Overnight international oil prices rebounded, with WTI up 1.52%, Brent up 1.60%, and SC down 0.64% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: US crude inventory unexpectedly decreased, but in the long - term, the support from the peak season is weakening, and OPEC+ production increase will put pressure on prices. Supply from Azerbaijan decreased, and India's imports hit a low. US commercial crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories changed [5][6]. - **Strategy**: Buy put options, and focus on the range of [475 - 495] for SC [7]. LPG - **Market Review**: On August 20, the PG main contract closed at 4315 yuan/ton, up 0.02% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [8][9]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices stabilized and rebounded, and the valuation was repaired. Supply decreased, and demand from PDH, MTBE, and alkylation oil showed different trends. Inventory decreased [10]. - **Strategy**: Be vigilant about the weakening of cost - end oil prices and take profit on long positions. Focus on the range of [4300 - 4400] for PG [11]. L - **Market Review**: The L2601 contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton, down 27 day - on - day. Spot prices also declined, and warehouse receipts increased [14][15]. - **Fundamentals**: Plastic accounts for 54% of ethylene demand, and South Korea's production cut expectation supports the market. Current supply pressure is relieved, and demand is expected to pick up [16][17]. - **Strategy**: Buy on dips. Focus on the range of [7200 - 7400] for L [17][18]. PP - **Market Review**: The PP2601 contract closed at 7056 yuan/ton, up 40 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [21][22]. - **Fundamentals**: Industry expectations are weak, and high warehouse receipts suppress the rebound. Supply is affected by high - level maintenance, and demand starts slowly [23][24]. - **Strategy**: Wait and see in the short - term and consider buying on dips. Focus on the range of [6950 - 7150] for PP [24][25]. PVC - **Market Review**: The V2601 contract closed at 5008 yuan/ton, up 7 day - on - day. Spot prices declined, and warehouse receipts increased [28][29]. - **Fundamentals**: Warehouse receipts increased significantly, exports in July exceeded expectations, but new capacity will be released in August, and exports may slow down. Social inventory has been accumulating for 8 weeks [30][31]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4900 - 5050] for V [31][32]. PX - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 7015 yuan/ton, and the PX11 contract closed at 6688 yuan/ton [34]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - side slightly increased production. Demand is weak but expected to improve. PX inventory is still high, but the "anti - involution" policy and market expectations may support prices [35][36]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, look for low - buying opportunities, and sell put options. Focus on the range of [6810 - 6900] for PX511 [36]. PTA - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4659 yuan/ton, and the TA01 contract closed at 4716 yuan/ton [40]. - **Fundamentals**: PTA processing fees are low, and supply pressure may increase in the future. Demand is expected to pick up with the approaching peak season. TA inventory is still high [41]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, buy put options, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4750 - 4810] for TA01 [42]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 4458 yuan/ton, and the EG09 contract closed at 4369 yuan/ton [44]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing, but demand is expected to improve with the peak season. Inventory is low, and "anti - involution" policies and macro - expectations may support prices [45]. - **Strategy**: Stop loss on short positions, do not chase the market, and look for long - position opportunities on dips. Focus on the range of [4440 - 4490] for EG01 [46]. Methanol - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price in East China was 2355 yuan/ton, and the main 01 contract closed at 2412 yuan/ton [48]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as domestic and overseas devices resume production. Demand is weak, and inventory is accumulating. Cost is supported by coal [49]. - **Strategy**: Continue to look for long - position opportunities in the 01 contract and sell put options on the 01 contract. Focus on the range of [2400 - 2450] for MA01 [50]. Urea - **Market Review**: On August 15, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1700 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1737 yuan/ton [52]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply is increasing as the operating rate is expected to rise. Domestic demand is weak, but exports are relatively good. Inventory is high [53][54]. - **Strategy**: Hold long positions in the 01 contract and sell put options. Focus on the range of [1780 - 1810] for UR01 [55]. Asphalt - **Market Review**: On August 20, the main contract closed at 3454 yuan/ton, up 0.03% month - on - month. Spot prices in different regions showed different trends [56][57]. - **Fundamentals**: Cost - end oil prices are under pressure, supply is increasing, and demand is decreasing. Inventory decreased slightly [58]. - **Strategy**: Lightly establish short positions. Focus on the range of [3400 - 3500] for BU [59]. Glass - **Market Review**: The FG2601 contract closed at 1162 yuan/ton, down 34 day - on - day. The market price in Hubei remained flat [61][62]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply - demand is weak, downstream orders are low, and inventory is increasing [63]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1140 - 1200] for FG [63]. Soda Ash - **Market Review**: The SA2601 contract closed at 1309 yuan/ton, down 49 day - on - day. The market price in Shahe remained flat [66][67]. - **Fundamentals**: Supply remains high, inventory is accumulating again, and industrial hedging pressure exists [68][69]. - **Strategy**: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [1290 - 1350] for SA [69].