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建筑建材行业2026年度策略报告:行业底部区间,反内卷加速格局重塑-20251113
Western Securities· 2025-11-13 08:30
Core Conclusions - The construction sector has seen a cumulative increase of 10.83% from the beginning of 2025 to November 11, 2025, underperforming the broader market, while the building materials sector has increased by 22.32%, outperforming the market [7][18] - The overall construction market is experiencing a decline in scale, with significant business homogenization, necessitating a transformation within the industry, particularly among large state-owned construction enterprises [7][46] - The cement industry is under pressure, with a projected 6% decline in demand for the year, while supply-side policies aimed at capacity reduction and carbon emissions are expected to be key drivers for future adjustments [8][9] Industry Review - The construction and building materials sectors have shown varied performance, with the construction sector ranking 20th out of 30 industries in terms of cumulative growth, while the building materials sector ranks 10th [18][20] - The cement sector has faced declining sales volumes for most companies in 2025, with a significant increase in inventory levels due to poor peak staggering [8][9] - International engineering projects are seeing sustained growth, particularly in regions involved in the Belt and Road Initiative, with many state-owned construction companies reporting an increase in overseas orders [8][9] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on large construction blue-chip stocks such as China Railway and China Communications Construction, while also considering companies involved in international engineering and those with cyclical elasticity in domestic demand [9] - The report emphasizes the importance of high dividend yields from undervalued state-owned construction companies as a potential investment opportunity [8][9] Financial Performance Summary - The revenue decline in the construction sector has narrowed, while profit pressures continue, with significant improvements in cash flow noted [9][57] - For the cement industry, revenue declines have expanded, and profit growth has slowed, indicating ongoing challenges [9][57] - The eight major state-owned construction enterprises reported a total revenue of 4.81 trillion yuan for the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 3.99% [61]