1月28日，在2026年开年后的宏观动荡中，FPG财盛国际观察到贵金属市场正迎来高光时刻。周三，现 货金价历史性地跨越了 5200 美元整数大关，在美联储利率决议公布前的敏感期，由于美元指数深跌至 近四年来的低位，市场避险情绪被彻底点燃。这一里程碑式的突破，在FPG财盛国际看来，不仅是短期 消息面的刺激，更是全球投资者对传统信用货币信心产生动摇的直接体现。 1月28日，在2026年开年后的宏观动荡中，FPG财盛国际观察到贵金属市场正迎来高光时刻。周三，现 货金价历史性地跨越了 5200 美元整数大关，在美联储利率决议公布前的敏感期，由于美元指数深跌至 近四年来的低位，市场避险情绪被彻底点燃。这一里程碑式的突破，在FPG财盛国际看来，不仅是短期 消息面的刺激，更是全球投资者对传统信用货币信心产生动摇的直接体现。 市场数据清晰地记录了这一波疯狂的涨势：现货黄金触及 5224.95 美元的新高，自年初以来的累计涨幅 已突破 20%。FPG财盛国际表示，金价与美元之间极强的负相关性是本轮行情的主驱动力。此前特朗普 总统对美元走势的置评，被市场解读为白宫内部对"弱势美元"政策已达成共识，这直接引发了美元 的"信心危机" ...

今日周三(1月28日)亚盘时段，COMEX白银目前交投于113.36一线上方，今日开盘于112.44美元/盎司， 截至发稿，comex白银暂报113.75美元/盎司，上涨1.25%，最高触及114.43美元/盎司，最低下探110.77美 元/盎司，目前来看，comex白银盘内短线偏向震荡走势。 【要闻速递】 特朗普的言论为美元的下跌火上浇油，此前关税政策已导致市场2025年陷入动荡，并加剧了外界对其政 策反复无常将促使海外投资者撤离美国的担忧。在周二其发表言论后，美元兑所有主要货币均走弱。 总统特朗普的言论被视为向交易员发出抛售美元的信号，表明政府支持弱势美元以提振出口。 纳索银行首席经济学家温.廷表示，特朗普"引发了另一轮抛售"，这将触发美元进一步下跌。 当被问及是否担心货币的下跌时，特朗普对记者表示："不，我认为这很棒。我认为美元的价值——看 看我们的业务，美元表现很好。"特朗普公开表示不担心美元贬值，甚至声称可以让美元像"悠悠球"一 样涨跌，并批评日本试图贬值本国货币。 【最新comex白银行情解析】 三月白银期货：多头在图表上占据明显优势，其下一个上行目标是令收盘价突破125.00美元的强劲技术 阻力 ...

Core Viewpoint - The "Trump Dilemma" is pushing the global economy towards a new monetary paradigm, with the Trump administration facing conflicting goals regarding the U.S. dollar's strength and its implications for trade and manufacturing [1][23]. Group 1: Dollar Policy and Economic Impact - Since Trump's second term began, the U.S. dollar index has dropped by 10.7%, falling below the 97 mark, reflecting a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy [1]. - The Trump administration is caught between weakening the dollar to reduce trade deficits and attract manufacturing back to the U.S., versus maintaining the dollar's global dominance [1][23]. - A weaker dollar could benefit U.S. exports and manufacturing, aligning with Trump's policy goals of reducing trade deficits and revitalizing domestic industries [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context of Dollar Policies - Historically, U.S. administrations have favored a strong dollar policy, viewing it as essential for maintaining the country's global status and credibility [3]. - The Clinton administration established a strong dollar policy in the 1990s to combat inflation and attract foreign investment, a stance that has been echoed by subsequent administrations [3][6]. - Trump's approach marks a significant departure, as he has openly criticized the strong dollar, arguing that a weaker dollar would benefit U.S. businesses [3][8]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Challenges - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a transition period, with high interest rates and tariffs negatively impacting manufacturing and consumer purchasing power [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, which could further influence the dollar's strength and the overall economic landscape [11]. - The U.S. federal debt has ballooned from $4 trillion to $37 trillion over 30 years, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the implications for dollar policy [12]. Group 4: Global Dollar Dynamics - The dollar's share in global reserves has decreased from approximately 72% in 2000 to 57.74% in early 2025, indicating a trend towards diversification in the international monetary system [20]. - Various countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade settlements, including bilateral agreements for local currency transactions and the use of gold [20][21]. - The Trump administration is attempting to reinforce the dollar's dominance through policies that promote the "petrodollar" system and threaten tariffs on countries that pursue de-dollarization [21][22]. Group 5: Future Implications - The conflicting goals of the Trump administration may accelerate the "de-dollarization" process, as trade protectionism could disrupt the traditional flow of dollars to emerging economies [24][25]. - As the U.S. reduces its dollar output while maintaining a strong stance against alternatives, countries may increasingly seek to use non-dollar currencies, undermining the dollar's global status [25]. - The erosion of dollar dominance could have profound implications for the U.S. economy, potentially leading to a decline in its global economic influence and stability [25].

Group 1 - President Trump nominated Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board, indicating a potential shift towards a more dovish stance from the Fed [2][4] - The nomination follows the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, allowing Trump to make a new appointment ahead of schedule [2][4] - Analysts suggest that Moore's appointment may lead to a weaker dollar as he has previously supported policies that could undermine the currency's strength [4][5] Group 2 - The Japanese stock market saw significant gains, with the TOPIX index rising 1.5% and surpassing the 3000-point mark for the first time, marking a historical high [5] - SoftBank Group's stock surged over 12% after reporting a net profit of 421.82 billion yen for the first quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations [5][6] - Sony's stock increased by over 6%, with the company raising its full-year profit guidance after reporting a 36% year-on-year increase in operating profit for the first quarter [6]

Group 1: Federal Reserve Nomination - President Trump nominated Stephen Moore, the current chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to the Federal Reserve Board, indicating a potential shift towards a more dovish stance at the Fed [3][4] - The nomination follows the resignation of Fed Governor Kugler, allowing Trump to make a new appointment ahead of schedule [3] - Analysts suggest that Moore's appointment may lead to a weaker dollar as he has previously expressed support for lower interest rates and has written papers on weakening the dollar [5] Group 2: Japanese Stock Market Performance - The Japanese stock market saw significant gains, with the TOPIX index rising 1.5% to surpass the 3000-point mark for the first time, marking a historical high [1][7] - SoftBank Group's stock surged over 12% after reporting a net profit of 421.82 billion yen for the first quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations [7] - Sony's stock increased over 6%, with the company raising its full-year profit guidance after reporting a 36% year-on-year increase in operating profit for the first quarter [8]

Core Viewpoint - The nomination of Stephen Milar by President Trump to the Federal Reserve Board suggests a shift towards a more dovish stance by the Fed, potentially leading to a depreciation of the US dollar [3][5]. Group 1: Federal Reserve Nomination - President Trump nominated Stephen Milar, the current chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, to fill a vacant position on the Federal Reserve Board, with a term ending on January 31, 2026 [3]. - Milar has a history of supporting Trump's calls for interest rate cuts and has previously served as a senior economic policy advisor at the Treasury during Trump's first term [4]. - The nomination requires Senate confirmation, which is expected to take 4 to 8 weeks, indicating that the new appointee may not participate in the upcoming FOMC meeting in September [4][5]. Group 2: Market Reactions - Following the Fed's dovish signals, the Japanese stock market saw significant gains, with the TOPIX index rising 1.5% to surpass 3000 points, marking a historical high [2][6]. - SoftBank Group's stock surged over 12% after reporting a net profit of 421.82 billion yen for the first quarter, significantly exceeding market expectations [6]. - Sony's stock increased over 6%, with the company raising its full-year profit guidance after reporting a 36% year-on-year increase in operating profit for the first quarter [7]. Group 3: Trade Relations and Tariffs - Japan's trade negotiations with the US are ongoing, with Japanese officials expressing concerns over the implementation of tariffs that exceed previously agreed rates [8]. - The US has committed to correcting administrative orders that could lead to higher tariffs on Japanese goods, which could impact market sentiment [7][8].