Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the inherent instability of a unipolar international monetary system, is relevant to understanding the current situation [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's currency crisis in 1931, to illustrate the recurring nature of these monetary challenges [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the current issues with the dollar system are not isolated but are part of a broader historical pattern of monetary instability [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It suggests that discussions around stablecoins should return to fundamental questions about the essence and functions of money [5]. Group 4: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary relations, and strategy is highlighted, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are deeply intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic policies in conjunction with strategic and foreign policy issues, particularly in the context of a chaotic international monetary system [6].

文 | 赵伟、陈达飞 赠书规则 读者只需在文末留言，点赞数最多的前10位读者，即可获赠达利欧的最新作品《国家为什么会破产》1 本。 截止时间：2025年7月23日：20:00。 写在前面的话 2025年初以来 ，在"美国例外论"阶段性被证伪的叙事之下，美元指数持续下行，最大回撤12.5% 。4月"对等 关税"冲击之后，美国金融市场接连出现"股债汇三杀"，再联想到白宫经济顾问委员会（CEA）主任斯蒂芬· 米兰（Stephan Miran）在2024年11月发表的所谓的"海湖庄园协议"报告，以及特朗普政府推动稳定币 《GENIUS》法案的积极性，引发了市场对于"去美元化"、美债"安全资产"属性和国际货币体系等问题的热 议。 关注、加星，第一时间接收推送！ 太阳底下没有新鲜事。早在1959年，特里芬（Robert Triffin）就断言布雷顿森林体系具有内在不稳定性并预 言其崩溃。他预见到，面对世界其他国家对储备资产日益增长的需求，美国终将过度扩张自身信用，以致出 现美元贬值的信心危机。这一矛盾后来被称为"特里芬两难"。60年年代中期以后，布雷顿森林体系在正式运 行不久后就麻烦不断。面对美元挤兑压力，尼克松政府先于 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a historical precedent for current issues [3][4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Their Role - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of the essence of money and the functions it serves, particularly in the context of stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary issues, and strategy is underscored, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations and Germany's role [6]. - The article stresses that economic policies cannot be viewed in isolation from strategic and foreign policy issues, highlighting the political dimensions of monetary matters [6].

去美元化这个概念其实有一个传统的去美元化的概念就是指的是我们在国际贸易结算当中一些以美元进行结算的交易的占比在下降另外就是在一些国家包括像中国这些新市场国家当中的 作为好的国际储备当中美元作为它的储备占比在下降此外比如说我们看到像在美国的国债的投资者当中那么外国持有的占比可能会有一些下降那么这个是美元作为一个国际储备货币或者是国际交易的 主导性货币它的占比下降是一个过去大家理解的一个去美元化这样的一个进程那么今年4月份在对等关税发布之后的下一周那么全球在金融市场方面也出现了一个去美元化的一个交易那么我在这里定义的话其实是一种去美元资产化的一种交易就是从这个大家抛售美债 作为一个导火索那么导致美股还有美元的汇率下跌有一个通俗的说法叫美国的股债会三杀这个和前面提到的原来旧有的去美元化的概念 稍有不同但是呢我在这里把它们放在一起因为这两个现象其实是有千丝万缕的联系的所以我在后面的这个这个演讲中呢就是可能去美元化包含其中的一个意思也可能包含两个意思 那么这里呢就是对这个定义呢给大家先明确一下在第二部分呢我们会转到就是去美元化它这次出现市场大幅波动的一些原因主要就是大家开始讨论川普的关税政策呢不仅仅是一个纯粹的通过关税 ...

Group 1 - The article emphasizes the systemic and practical aspects of the current economic landscape, highlighting the shift in global trade dynamics due to the weakening of direct economic ties between China and the U.S. and the strengthening of China's relationships with emerging markets [1][2] - China's trade connections with emerging markets are becoming increasingly robust, while its trade ties with major U.S. allies have declined, indicating a strategic pivot in China's economic diplomacy [2] - The article suggests that the current "strategic stalemate" between China and the U.S. is a foundational expectation, with an optimistic outlook for China's strategic opportunities beginning to take root among investors [2] Group 2 - The A-share market is seen as having the potential to develop into a bull market due to increasing household asset allocation towards equities, driven by a decline in risk-free interest rates and an upcoming peak in deposit reallocations in 2025 [3][4] - Improvements in corporate governance and shareholder returns are expected to elevate the return baseline for A-shares, while the encouragement of mergers and acquisitions aligns with a turning point in the primary market [4][5] - A significant supply clearing cycle is anticipated, which could lead to a long-term increase in profitability for Chinese enterprises, particularly in high-value sectors [5][6] Group 3 - The current market conditions are not yet signaling the start of a bull market, with various factors influencing demand and supply dynamics, including uncertainties in domestic fiscal policies and real estate [6][7] - The technology sector is undergoing a mid-term adjustment, with breakthroughs in foundational technologies necessary for significant advancements in AI applications [7] - New consumption trends are emerging as a separate industrial trend, but the broader economic transition towards consumption-driven growth is expected to be gradual [7][8] Group 4 - A forecast for A-share profitability in 2025 indicates a likely decline in demand in the latter half of the year, with a projected net profit growth rate of 4.6% for the entire A-share market [8] - The asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as the accumulation of a profitable effect is necessary for public funds to re-enter the market [9][10] - The potential bull market is expected to be driven by structural trends in new economic industries, with significant catalysts needed for a broader market rally [10][12] Group 5 - The article discusses the conditions necessary for a bull market to emerge, emphasizing the importance of breaking out of the current trading range and the historical context of market behavior following bear markets [11][12] - The potential for a "Chinese-style slow bull" market is highlighted, with expectations for a longer duration of market optimism despite weaker elasticity in fundamental improvements [12][13] - Key sectors such as AI, embodied intelligence, and defense are identified as having the potential to drive structural bull trends, with a focus on high-value opportunities in the technology space [13][14] Group 6 - The Hong Kong stock market is positioned to lead the market rally, serving as a critical link in China's financial external circulation and benefiting from the convergence of domestic and foreign capital [15]

Group 1 - The report highlights the transition from a "China-US strategic stalemate" to a "China strategic opportunity period," indicating that China's economic and trade connections with emerging markets are strengthening while ties with US allies are declining [3][24][25] - The A-share market is positioned to potentially enter a bull market phase, driven by increasing household asset allocation towards equities as traditional investment returns decline [3][41][50] - The report suggests that the current market has not yet signaled the start of a bull run, emphasizing the need for careful timing in investment decisions [3][4][5] Group 2 - The report notes that the supply-side improvements are clear, but the demand-side factors remain complex and uncertain, impacting the stability of economic expectations for 2025 [4][5] - It discusses the ongoing mid-term adjustments in the technology sector, indicating that breakthroughs in applications depend on foundational technological advancements [4][5] - The new consumption trend is identified as an independent industry trend, with cautious optimism about its potential to drive consumer spending in the future [4][5] Group 3 - The report updates the profit forecast for A-shares, predicting a mixed performance with a significant drop in net profit growth in the latter half of 2025 [4][5] - It emphasizes that the asset management industry is not yet prepared for a bull market, as the necessary conditions for a significant inflow of capital have not been met [5][6] - The potential for a "China-style slow bull market" is discussed, with expectations for a longer duration of market improvement despite weaker elasticity in fundamental improvements [5][6] Group 4 - The report identifies key sectors such as domestic AI, embodied intelligence, and defense as having the potential to become core industry trends driving structural bull markets [5][6] - It highlights that the Hong Kong stock market is likely to lead the market, benefiting from its role in China's financial external circulation [5][6] - The report maintains a cautious stance on the expansion of new consumption trends, suggesting that significant profit effects in this area may indicate a short-term market correction [5][6]