编者按：在美国最高法院裁定美国政府对全球实施"对等关税"越权后，华盛顿虽然迅速宣布启动新的全 球进口关税，但其"交易式威慑"是否失灵备受国际舆论关注。本期"环球圆桌对话"邀请三位学者就相关 议题展开讨论。 陈淑梅：上海外国语大学国际金融贸易学院教授 霍 达：北京外国语大学国际商学院教授 龚 炯：对外经济贸易大学经济系教授 陈淑梅 当美国最高法院日前以6∶3裁定美国政府依据《国际紧急经济权力法》（IEEPA）实施的全球"对等关 税"越权违法时，可以说，华盛顿的关税政策"法律基石"已经被直接否定。 自本届美国政府上台后，世界目睹了一场美国外交范式的剧烈转向：威胁不再是其工具箱中的备选项， 而日益成为华盛顿处理国际关系的默认语言。这种以"交易式威慑"为包装的胁迫手段，正从战术选择异 化为战略惯性，其频率与烈度在2026年开年之际再度升级。 1月中下旬美方声称，若加拿大推进对华自贸谈判，将对所有加拿大输美商品征收惩罚性关税；在欧洲 方向，华盛顿以"购买格陵兰岛"为由威胁对丹麦等八国加征关税。在美国最高法院作出裁决后，华盛顿 迅速启动新的10%全球进口关税（随后提升至15%），并酝酿依据《1962年贸易扩展法》第232 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices, despite seeming irrational, is a result of multiple long-term structural forces converging, indicating a profound structural shift in the gold market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional pricing model for gold, which suggests that prices are primarily determined by inflation expectations or the real interest rate of the dollar, has failed multiple times since 2022, particularly during periods of aggressive interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve [2][3] - Central banks have emerged as "steadfast buyers," maintaining annual net gold purchases at historically high levels since 2022, reflecting strategic asset reallocation rather than short-term speculation [2][3] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Monetary System - The rise in gold purchases by central banks is closely linked to a "quiet earthquake" in the current international monetary system, facing structural challenges due to intensified great power competition and strategies like "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" [3] - Gold is viewed as a reserve asset with no counterparty risk, making it an ideal foundation for a "de-dollarized" reserve system, representing a natural evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar or "block" reserve system [3][4] Group 3: Buyer Characteristics - The gold market has differentiated into three distinct types of "steadfast buyers": 1. Central banks, especially from emerging economies, which purchase gold as a non-price elastic reserve asset [4][5] 2. Institutional investors, such as sovereign wealth funds and family offices, that allocate a fixed proportion of their portfolios to non-correlated assets or disaster hedges [5] 3. New marginal buyers, including private companies issuing stablecoins, which buy and hold substantial amounts of physical gold to support their stablecoin values [5] Group 4: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold prices will be deeply intertwined with the evolution of the international monetary system, where the relative decline of the dollar will see gold, major sovereign currencies, and Special Drawing Rights (SDR) collectively serving as reserve assets [6] - Investors must adopt a broader analytical framework that includes geopolitical risk assessments, global debt sustainability analysis, and the degree of coordination (or lack thereof) in major economies' monetary policies [6] - The recent record highs in gold prices reflect not just numerical fluctuations but a rebalancing of global monetary power, indicating that the current dynamics in the gold market transcend simple trading strategies and are shaping the future of the international financial order [6]

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in international gold prices reflects a convergence of multiple long-term structural forces rather than mere daily price fluctuations, indicating a profound transformation in the gold market [2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The traditional pricing model of gold, which relies on inflation expectations or real interest rates, has failed since 2022, as gold prices remained resilient despite aggressive interest rate hikes and rising real rates [2] - Central banks have emerged as "steadfast buyers," maintaining record-high annual net gold purchases since 2022, driven by strategic asset reallocation and concerns over the dollar-centric reserve system [2][3] Group 2: Structural Changes in the Monetary System - The rise in gold purchases by central banks is linked to a "quiet earthquake" in the international monetary system, facing structural challenges due to intensified great power competition and strategies like "de-risking" and "friend-shoring" [3] - Gold is viewed as a reserve asset with no counterparty risk, making it an ideal foundation for a "de-dollarized" reserve system, reflecting a natural evolution from a unipolar to a multipolar or "block" reserve system [3] Group 3: Short-term vs Long-term Drivers - Short-term market dynamics remain sensitive to traditional indicators such as Federal Reserve policy expectations, inflation data, and stock market risk sentiment, influencing gold's appeal as a financial asset [3] - Long-term trends in gold prices are driven by geopolitical intensity, global supply chain restructuring, and the diversification of central bank reserves, assessing the long-term credibility of fiat currency systems [4] Group 4: Buyer Characteristics - Three distinct categories of "steadfast buyers" have emerged in the gold market: central banks, particularly from emerging economies; institutional investors like sovereign wealth funds; and private companies issuing stablecoins that back their value with physical gold [5] - These buyers tend to buy and hold gold rather than engage in short-term trading, effectively locking in substantial physical gold supply and altering market liquidity structures, making gold prices more sensitive to marginal demand changes [5] Group 5: Future Outlook - The future trajectory of gold will be closely tied to the evolution of the international monetary system, with the relative decline of the dollar and the emergence of a multi-anchor system where gold plays a crucial role as a common denominator and ultimate payment method during crises [6] - Investors must shift their analytical frameworks to include geopolitical risk assessments and the sustainability of global debt, moving beyond a narrow focus on U.S. economic data and Federal Reserve meetings [6]

Core Viewpoint - The book "New Currency Landscape" discusses the evolution of the international monetary system, the inherent contradictions of the existing system, and the progress and lessons of RMB internationalization, proposing strategies to advance it [1][2]. Group 1: Historical Context and Lessons - The authors highlight the historical experiences of the dollar's rise, yen internationalization, and euro's emergence, emphasizing the importance of maintaining domestic economic stability and independent monetary policy for RMB internationalization [2][3]. - The book provides a detailed account of how the Marshall Plan and Dodge Plan saved the Bretton Woods system and the dollar's international status, which is a unique perspective in domestic discourse [1][4]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization Strategies - The book suggests that cultivating and developing RMB pricing functions is crucial for its internationalization, with practical paths including promoting RMB pricing through economic aid to African countries, addressing trade deficits with neighboring countries, and facilitating commodity transactions [3][5]. - It argues that financial openness combined with a rigid exchange rate is a dangerous combination, indicating the need for careful consideration of the relationship between RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization [6]. Group 3: Current Challenges and Future Directions - The authors express that the failure of yen internationalization was largely due to the inability to maintain exchange rate stability, a challenge that has also affected RMB internationalization since 2015 due to depreciation and depreciation expectations [3][4]. - The book discusses the systemic risks associated with the diversification of reserve assets among countries, particularly in light of geopolitical tensions, suggesting that merely diversifying within traditional reserve currencies may not be sufficient [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The book "New Monetary Landscape" discusses the evolution of the international monetary system, the inherent contradictions of the current system, and the progress and lessons of RMB internationalization, proposing strategies to advance it [3][4]. Group 1: Historical Context and Lessons - The authors provide a detailed analysis of the rise of the US dollar and the decline of the British pound, emphasizing the historical significance of the Marshall and Dodge Plans in saving the Bretton Woods system and reinforcing the dollar's international status [3]. - The book highlights two critical steps in the dollar's internationalization: the entry of major US banks into foreign markets and the Federal Reserve's support for dollar-denominated commercial paper, leading to over 50% of US trade being settled in dollars by the 1920s [4]. Group 2: RMB Internationalization Strategies - The book argues that RMB internationalization must be grounded in China's domestic economy, maintaining monetary policy independence and macroeconomic stability [5]. - It suggests that cultivating and developing the RMB's pricing function is crucial, with practical paths including promoting RMB pricing through economic aid to African countries, addressing trade deficits with neighboring countries, and facilitating RMB transactions in commodity trading [5][6]. Group 3: Comparative Analysis and Challenges - The authors analyze Japan's failed yen internationalization efforts, attributing the failure to the inability to maintain a stable yen exchange rate, which diminished its international value [5]. - The book posits that the current international monetary system's sustainability hinges on whether peripheral countries will continue to purchase US debt, which is influenced by the US's growing external debt and trade deficits [6][8]. Group 4: Financial Cooperation and Regional Currency - The book advocates for regional monetary cooperation to promote domestic financial reform and open up, aiming to establish the RMB as a regional international currency in Asia [6]. - It emphasizes the dangers of financial liberalization combined with rigid exchange rates, suggesting that the interaction between RMB internationalization and capital account liberalization requires more detailed discussion [7]. Group 5: Global Reserve Asset Diversification - The authors note that diversification of reserve assets among US allies cannot effectively mitigate systemic risks, as demonstrated by the sanctions against Russia following the Ukraine conflict [8]. - They argue for a strategic shift towards a new development pattern that prioritizes domestic circulation while reducing asymmetries in dollar assets and liabilities [8].

Core Insights - The current international monetary system is facing a "lack of anchor" dilemma, with traditional dollar hegemony exposed due to decoupling from Chinese production, leading to a shift towards technology as a new anchor [1][5][7] - The U.S. tech sector has become a focal point for capital inflow, and any issues within this sector could trigger systemic risks across the U.S. financial ecosystem and potentially lead to global repercussions [2][10] - The relationship between gold and silver indicates that rising gold prices often correlate with economic recession and deflationary conditions, suggesting a complex interplay between monetary factors and asset prices [3][4] Monetary System and Anchors - The concept of "anchor" in the monetary system is crucial for maintaining price stability, and its absence can lead to significant risks for assets like Bitcoin and RWA, exacerbating the Triffin dilemma [4][6] - The historical context of the 2000-2008 "dual low" prosperity period illustrates how global value chains absorbed dollar liquidity, temporarily avoiding the Triffin dilemma, which is now challenged by the decoupling from Chinese production [5][7] Risks and Innovations - The emergence of stablecoins and their innovative combinations aims to address the Triffin dilemma, but they also introduce new risks such as decoupling and bank run scenarios, particularly evident during downturns in the tech sector [11][12] - The financial ecosystem's reliance on technology as a new monetary anchor raises concerns about potential bubbles and the stability of the entire U.S. financial system if the tech sector experiences significant declines [10][11] Globalization and Economic Dynamics - The decoupling between the U.S. and China disrupts the previous global resource allocation mechanisms that supported dollar liquidity, leading to a shift towards virtual assets and a decline in real investment [7][9] - The U.S. has increasingly focused on innovation and financial services, sidelining manufacturing, which has implications for the middle class and overall economic stability [8][9]

Core Viewpoint - The "Trump Dilemma" is pushing the global economy towards a new monetary paradigm, with the Trump administration facing conflicting goals regarding the U.S. dollar's strength and its implications for trade and manufacturing [1][23]. Group 1: Dollar Policy and Economic Impact - Since Trump's second term began, the U.S. dollar index has dropped by 10.7%, falling below the 97 mark, reflecting a potential shift in U.S. monetary policy [1]. - The Trump administration is caught between weakening the dollar to reduce trade deficits and attract manufacturing back to the U.S., versus maintaining the dollar's global dominance [1][23]. - A weaker dollar could benefit U.S. exports and manufacturing, aligning with Trump's policy goals of reducing trade deficits and revitalizing domestic industries [8][9]. Group 2: Historical Context of Dollar Policies - Historically, U.S. administrations have favored a strong dollar policy, viewing it as essential for maintaining the country's global status and credibility [3]. - The Clinton administration established a strong dollar policy in the 1990s to combat inflation and attract foreign investment, a stance that has been echoed by subsequent administrations [3][6]. - Trump's approach marks a significant departure, as he has openly criticized the strong dollar, arguing that a weaker dollar would benefit U.S. businesses [3][8]. Group 3: Economic Conditions and Challenges - The U.S. economy is currently experiencing a transition period, with high interest rates and tariffs negatively impacting manufacturing and consumer purchasing power [10][11]. - The Federal Reserve is in a rate-cutting cycle, which could further influence the dollar's strength and the overall economic landscape [11]. - The U.S. federal debt has ballooned from $4 trillion to $37 trillion over 30 years, raising concerns about fiscal sustainability and the implications for dollar policy [12]. Group 4: Global Dollar Dynamics - The dollar's share in global reserves has decreased from approximately 72% in 2000 to 57.74% in early 2025, indicating a trend towards diversification in the international monetary system [20]. - Various countries are exploring alternatives to the dollar for trade settlements, including bilateral agreements for local currency transactions and the use of gold [20][21]. - The Trump administration is attempting to reinforce the dollar's dominance through policies that promote the "petrodollar" system and threaten tariffs on countries that pursue de-dollarization [21][22]. Group 5: Future Implications - The conflicting goals of the Trump administration may accelerate the "de-dollarization" process, as trade protectionism could disrupt the traditional flow of dollars to emerging economies [24][25]. - As the U.S. reduces its dollar output while maintaining a strong stance against alternatives, countries may increasingly seek to use non-dollar currencies, undermining the dollar's global status [25]. - The erosion of dollar dominance could have profound implications for the U.S. economy, potentially leading to a decline in its global economic influence and stability [25].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which highlights the inherent instability of a unipolar international monetary system, is relevant to understanding the current situation [4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's currency crisis in 1931, to illustrate the recurring nature of these monetary challenges [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the current issues with the dollar system are not isolated but are part of a broader historical pattern of monetary instability [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It suggests that discussions around stablecoins should return to fundamental questions about the essence and functions of money [5]. Group 4: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary relations, and strategy is highlighted, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are deeply intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations [6]. - The article stresses the importance of understanding economic policies in conjunction with strategic and foreign policy issues, particularly in the context of a chaotic international monetary system [6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a recurring theme in the history of monetary systems [3][4]. Group 2: Historical Context and Theoretical Framework - The article references historical instances, such as the collapse of the Bretton Woods system and the UK's experience with the pound, to illustrate the inherent instability in unipolar monetary systems [4]. - The discussion emphasizes that the "Triffin Dilemma" is not limited to the Bretton Woods system but is a common issue across all unipolar international monetary systems [4]. Group 3: Role of Stablecoins and Future Considerations - There are ongoing debates regarding the role of stablecoins in the monetary system, including their potential to complement or replace the dollar [5]. - The article suggests that understanding the essence and functions of money is crucial for evaluating the impact of stablecoins on the current monetary landscape [5]. - It calls for a grounded discussion based on facts, history, and theory to avoid falling into the trap of grand narratives in the study of international monetary systems [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the ongoing challenges and potential shifts in the international monetary system, particularly focusing on the decline of the US dollar and the implications of stablecoins in this context [3][4][5]. Group 1: Current Monetary System Challenges - Since early 2025, the narrative of "American exceptionalism" has been challenged, leading to a 12.5% decline in the US dollar index [3]. - Following the "reciprocal tariffs" impact in April, the US financial markets experienced simultaneous declines in stocks, bonds, and currency [3]. - The "Triffin Dilemma," which predicts a crisis of confidence in the dollar due to excessive credit expansion, is highlighted as a historical precedent for current issues [3][4]. Group 2: Stablecoins and Their Role - The article raises questions about the nature and functions of stablecoins, exploring their potential roles in the monetary system and their relationship with the US dollar [5]. - It emphasizes the need for a deeper understanding of the essence of money and the functions it serves, particularly in the context of stablecoins [5]. Group 3: Political and Economic Interconnections - The relationship between alliance politics, monetary issues, and strategy is underscored, indicating that the dollar and gold issues are intertwined with broader political concerns, such as US-NATO relations and Germany's role [6]. - The article stresses that economic policies cannot be viewed in isolation from strategic and foreign policy issues, highlighting the political dimensions of monetary matters [6].