强增量
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财通证券:食饮板块预期基本处于底部 关注顺周期和强增量两条主线
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-11-10 02:01
Group 1 - The food and beverage sector is expected to be at the bottom of its cycle, with fundamentals accelerating in Q3, indicating potential investment opportunities as policies and fundamentals improve [1] - The report highlights two main investment themes: 1) cyclical recovery focusing on the restaurant chain and liquor sectors, 2) strong growth potential in health and store expansion logic [1] - The liquor industry is experiencing significant revenue declines, particularly for brands like Wuliangye and Gujinggongjiu, while brands like Kweichow Moutai show resilience; a return to positive revenue growth is anticipated around Q2 2026 [1] Group 2 - The restaurant supply chain is seeing signs that the price war may be nearing its end, with Q3 net profit margins showing improvement as companies move away from price competition [2] - The improvement in net profit margins is attributed to clearer growth paths and drivers focusing on new products and channels, alongside a shift towards quality enhancement rather than just cost reduction [2] - Capital expenditures in the industry are gradually decreasing, which supports the improvement in price competition [2] Group 3 - Companies with strong growth are driven by several factors: 1) the health sector, which has good beta and expanding demand, 2) channel expansion through new stores and customization, 3) mergers and acquisitions leading to external growth [3]