2025.07. 09 本文字数：2849，阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 后歆桐 即使美国总统特朗普的贸易政策反复无常、扰动全球市场，但全球股市今年仍表现强劲。 截至7月4日，MSCI全球指数上涨了约10%，创历史高位。该指数衡量全球来自发达经济体和新兴经济体 的2500多只股票的整体表现。 华侨银行投资策略董事总经理蒙农（Vasu Menon）表示，尽管今年上半年出现了一系列逆风因素，但全 球股市显示出韧性。"由于各种不确定性因素仍存，预计下半年股票波动性仍将存在。但同时，预计全球 股市在下半年仍将表现良好，尤其是如果对贸易、关税和通胀的担忧在未来几个月有所缓解的话。" 欧洲复兴 根据晨星（Morningstar）的数据，欧洲股市成为2025年的"意外之星"，希腊、波兰、捷克共和国、匈 牙利股指今年迄今的涨幅，居全球前四。西班牙、葡萄牙、奥地利和意大利股指涨幅也居前十，欧洲股指 在前十位中占据八位，排名最后的意大利涨幅也达到37.71%。相比之下，美股虽然近期又创新高，但在 全球投资者对美元资产整体信心动摇下，美股上半年涨幅仅为7.36%。 晨星EMEA首席股票市场策略师弗尔德（Michael F ...

Global Market Performance - Despite the unpredictable trade policies of the Trump administration, global stock markets have shown resilience, with the MSCI global index rising approximately 10% as of July 4, reaching a historical high [1] - The second half of the year is expected to see continued volatility in stock markets, but a positive performance is anticipated if concerns over trade, tariffs, and inflation ease [1] European Market Highlights - European stock markets have emerged as "unexpected stars" for 2025, with Greece, Poland, the Czech Republic, and Hungary leading global gains [3] - Greece's stock index has surged nearly 60% this year, driven by economic recovery, banking reforms, and a strong tourism sector [3] - The overall positive performance in Europe is attributed to the "sell America" movement, improved economic conditions, and undervaluation of European stocks [3] Investment Strategies in Europe - European defense stocks are expected to provide substantial returns, supported by increased investment and defense spending commitments from Germany [4] - The European Central Bank has more room to cut interest rates compared to the Federal Reserve, which may further support economic growth [4] - The strengthening euro is anticipated to enhance economic momentum in Europe, making it an increasingly attractive investment destination [5] Asia-Pacific Market Overview - The Asia-Pacific stock indices have shown mixed performance, with South Korea's index ranking first in the region, up over 30% this year [5] - Thailand and Indonesia have underperformed, with declines of 13.56% and 4.74% respectively, while China and Japan recorded gains of 17.72% and 11.24% [5] - The outlook for Asian markets remains optimistic, with expectations of stable economic conditions and attractive valuations compared to developed markets [7] Sector Focus in Asia - Key sectors expected to drive growth in Asia include artificial intelligence, innovation, digital infrastructure, and local consumption [7] - The Chinese and South Korean markets are poised to benefit from advancements in technology and the expansion of the AI industry [7] - The Indian market is expected to see growth driven by manufacturing and consumption, supported by a young population [7] Underperforming Markets - Thailand's stock market has faced significant challenges due to political instability and economic difficulties, leading to a decline of over 13% [8] - Turkey's market has also struggled, with a drop of 7.59% attributed to high inflation and a lack of investor confidence [9] - India's stock market has underperformed with a gain of only 5.75%, but future earnings recovery is anticipated [9]