Quantitative Models and Construction Methods 1. Model Name: Macro Timing Strategy - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to provide signals for equity allocation based on macroeconomic growth and monetary liquidity indicators[26] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses dynamic macro event factors to construct a stock-bond rotation strategy. The signal strength for economic growth and monetary liquidity is calculated monthly. For April, the signal strength for economic growth is 0%, and for monetary liquidity is 50%[26][27] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown a return of 1.06% from the beginning of 2025 to the present, compared to a 1.90% return for the Wind All A index during the same period[26] 2. Model Name: Micro Cap Timing Model - **Model Construction Idea**: The model focuses on timing and rotation signals for micro-cap stocks based on volatility and interest rate indicators[30] - **Model Construction Process**: The model uses two mid-term risk warning indicators: 1) Ten-year government bond yield YoY indicator and 2) Volatility congestion YoY indicator. On October 15, 2024, the volatility congestion indicator fell below the threshold, lifting the risk warning signal. The interest rate YoY indicator was -20.45%, not triggering the risk control threshold of 0.3[30] - **Model Evaluation**: The model has not triggered risk control, suggesting investors continue holding micro-cap stocks[30] Model Backtest Results 1. Macro Timing Strategy - **Economic Growth Signal Strength**: 0%[27] - **Monetary Liquidity Signal Strength**: 50%[27] - **Equity Allocation Recommendation**: 25%[27] - **Return from 2025 to Present**: 1.06%[26] 2. Micro Cap Timing Model - **Ten-year Government Bond Yield YoY**: -28.69%[31] - **Volatility Congestion YoY**: -50.09%[31] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods 1. Factor Name: Value Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to capture the value characteristics of stocks based on fundamental metrics[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: The value factor includes metrics such as the latest annual report book value to market value (BP_LR), future 12-month consensus expected net profit to market value (EP_FTTM), and past 12-month operating income to market value (SP_TTM)[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The value factor performed best in the CSI 300 stock pool last week[37] 2. Factor Name: Size Factor - **Factor Construction Idea**: The factor aims to capture the size characteristics of stocks based on market capitalization[37] - **Factor Construction Process**: The size factor includes metrics such as the logarithm of circulating market capitalization (LN_MktCap)[47] - **Factor Evaluation**: The size factor showed strong positive returns in the CSI 1000 stock pool last week[37] Factor Backtest Results 1. Value Factor - **IC Mean (CSI 300)**: 25.88%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 500)**: 10.56%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 1000)**: 6.32%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 300)**: 10.84%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 500)**: 10.56%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 1000)**: 6.32%[38] 2. Size Factor - **IC Mean (CSI 300)**: 3.33%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 500)**: -3.23%[38] - **IC Mean (CSI 1000)**: -1.84%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 300)**: 3.33%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 500)**: -3.23%[38] - **Multi-Long Return (CSI 1000)**: -1.84%[38]