大和发布研报称，极兔第三季总包裹量同比增长23%至76.77亿件，其中东南亚包裹量表现突出，同比 增长78.7%至约20亿件，超出管理层及该行预期。该行认为东南亚快递市场已进入新发展阶段，因平台 竞争加剧，以及市占率整合。考虑到极兔的市场定位及具竞争力的成本，相信公司可以在新增长阶段占 有优势。 申万宏源指出，公司新市场件量高增，主要得益于公司的持续投入并日益深化和电商平台的合作。另一 方面，25Q3快递行业在反内卷政策推动下单价持续上行，公司三季度利润有望修复。8月以来快递反内 卷持续推进，产粮区快递价格持续提升，8月各快递公司经营月报显示通达系单价环比均有所提升，9月 全国各地均已陆续跟进涨价，看好行业单价继续提升带来的公司利润修复。 （原标题：港股异动 | 极兔速递-W(01519)涨近4% 三季度包裹量超市场预期 反内卷政策推动下公司利润 有望修复） 智通财经APP获悉，极兔速递-W(01519)涨近4%，截至发稿，涨3.64%，报10.25港元，成交额3259.28万 港元。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Jitu Express reported strong growth in package volume for Q3 2025, driven by increased e-commerce penetration in Southeast Asia and strategic partnerships with e-commerce platforms [1][2] Group 1: Package Volume Growth - In Q3 2025, the total package volume reached 7.68 billion, a year-on-year increase of 23.1% [1] - Southeast Asia package volume was 2.0 billion, growing by 78.7% year-on-year [1] - China package volume reached 5.58 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 10.4% [1] - New market package volume hit 100 million, reflecting a 47.9% year-on-year increase [1] Group 2: E-commerce and Market Share - The e-commerce package volume in Southeast Asia for the first half of 2025 reached 9.84 billion, up 32.2% year-on-year, indicating robust growth in the region [1] - Jitu's market share in Southeast Asia reached 32.8% in the first half of 2025, an increase of 5.4 percentage points year-on-year [1] - The company is expanding its non-e-commerce package offerings, leveraging its network advantages and cost efficiency [1] Group 3: New Market Expansion - In Q3 2025, new market package volume reached 100 million, a 47.9% year-on-year increase, with a total of 270 million packages in the first three quarters, up 30.6% year-on-year [2] - The company has established 35 transfer centers, over 1,900 outlets, more than 200 trunk transport vehicles, and 11 automated sorting lines in new markets [2] - Jitu is deepening collaborations with e-commerce platforms like TikTok, Temu, Shein, and Mercado Libre in new markets [2] Group 4: Profitability and Forecast - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2025-2027, expecting net profits of $368 million, $592 million, and $853 million respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 83.91%, 60.77%, and 43.94% [3] - The price war in the Chinese market has impacted profitability, leading to a lower PE valuation reference [3] - The company maintains an "overweight" rating, with a comparable PS valuation of 1.42x for 2025, higher than Jitu's PS valuation [3]

Summary of Conference Call on Express Delivery Industry in Guangdong Province Industry Overview - The express delivery industry in Guangdong Province is experiencing a collective price increase among major companies such as Zhongtong, Yuantong, and Yunda, driven by rising costs and upcoming social insurance policies [1][25]. - The average daily express delivery volume in Guangdong Province is 129 million packages, with significant contributions from Guangzhou (60 million), Shenzhen (35 million), and Jieyang (30 million) [2][20]. Key Points and Arguments Price Adjustments - Major express companies have raised their minimum prices to above 1.4 yuan per kilogram, with a 15-day price lock period to stabilize the market [1][6]. - Zhongtong's minimum price increased from 1.48 yuan to 1.4 yuan, while Yuantong's rose from 1.45 yuan to 1.4 yuan [9][30]. - The price adjustments are expected to last until the end of the year, with potential for a new price war in 2026, particularly for packages weighing between 0.4 to 3 kilograms [34]. Market Dynamics - Different companies are adopting varied strategies in response to the price hikes. For instance, Yuantong has canceled its excess return policy to enhance profitability, as small packages constitute a significant portion of its business [7][8]. - The price increase may lead to a shift in e-commerce logistics, with manufacturers potentially relocating warehouses to lower-cost regions like Hebei and Henan [1][18]. Regulatory Oversight - The State Post Bureau has established supervisory groups to monitor compliance with the new pricing policies, focusing on data analysis rather than extensive on-site inspections [12][13]. - The regulatory framework aims to prevent price gouging and ensure fair competition among express delivery brands [12]. Competitive Landscape - The competition is expected to intensify in the higher weight segments (above 0.3 kg) during the price lock period, despite the minimum price regulations for lighter packages [11][16]. - The express delivery market is projected to grow significantly, with an expected daily volume of 560 million packages by 2025, indicating a robust demand for logistics services [26][27]. Additional Important Insights - The price differences among companies are minimal, which may limit the potential for significant profit margins and complicate market dynamics [14][30]. - The ongoing price adjustments are seen as a necessary step to prepare for the implementation of new social insurance policies, which could further impact operational costs [25][34]. - The potential for market consolidation exists, but the current growth rate and capacity constraints suggest that no single brand will dominate the market [26][27]. Conclusion - The express delivery industry in Guangdong is undergoing significant changes due to price adjustments and regulatory oversight, with implications for market competition and logistics strategies. The expected growth in delivery volume presents both opportunities and challenges for the companies involved.