Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China continues to experience medium to high-speed growth, with May 2025 showing significant increases in both business volume and revenue [2][4]. Industry Performance - In May 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 17.32 billion pieces, representing a year-on-year growth of 17.2% [2][3]. - The express delivery revenue for the same month was 125.55 billion yuan, marking an 8.2% increase compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The average price per delivery decreased to 7.25 yuan, reflecting a decline of 7.6% year-on-year [2][3]. Market Segmentation - In the same month, the volume of intra-city express deliveries was 1.46 billion pieces, up 10.4% year-on-year [2][3]. - The volume of inter-city express deliveries reached 15.55 billion pieces, showing an 18.0% increase [2][3]. - International and Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan express deliveries totaled 310 million pieces, with a year-on-year growth of 11.9% [2][3]. Company Performance - SF Express maintained a leading growth rate, with a delivery volume of 1.477 billion pieces, achieving a year-on-year growth of 31.8% [3]. - The revenue from SF Express's logistics services grew by 13.4% year-on-year, sustaining double-digit growth [3]. - Among publicly listed express delivery companies, YTO Express showed strong growth, followed by Shentong Express, while Yunda Express experienced slightly slower growth [3]. Investment Recommendations - The express delivery market in China is expected to maintain medium to high-speed growth, with historical highs in business volume [4]. - The rise of autonomous delivery vehicles is anticipated to enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs across the supply chain, potentially improving company performance [4]. - SF Express is recommended for continued investment due to its effective operational strategies and leading growth [4]. - Positive growth trends in e-commerce logistics suggest investment opportunities in Zhongtong Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda [4].

Industry Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The express delivery industry in China continues to maintain a medium to high-speed growth, with business volume reaching historical highs. The recent trend towards logistics automation is expected to further enhance operational efficiency and reduce costs across the supply chain, leading to improved performance for express delivery companies [6][21] - SF Express is leading in growth with a business volume increase of 31.8% year-on-year, driven by its "activation of operations" strategy. Other companies like ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express are also recommended due to favorable trends in e-commerce delivery [6][21] Summary by Relevant Sections Industry Overview - In May 2025, the total express delivery volume reached 17.32 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 17.2%. The express delivery revenue was 125.55 billion yuan, up 8.2%, with an average price per delivery of 7.25 yuan, down 7.6% year-on-year [4][9] Company Performance - SF Express reported a business volume of 1.477 billion pieces in May 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 31.8%, contributing to a 13.4% increase in logistics revenue. ZTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express also showed significant growth, although their growth rates were slightly lower than SF Express [5][15][16] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda Express due to their strong growth potential and favorable market conditions [6][21] - The earnings forecasts for key companies are as follows: - SF Express: EPS of 2.34 yuan in 2025E, PE of 21.65 - ZTO Express: EPS of 13.44 yuan in 2025E, PE of 10.04 - YTO Express: EPS of 1.25 yuan in 2025E, PE of 10.32 - Shentong Express: EPS of 0.91 yuan in 2025E, PE of 11.82 - Yunda Express: EPS of 0.70 yuan in 2025E, PE of 9.53 [8]