智通财经APP获悉，财通证券发布研报称，维持极兔速递-W(01519)"买入"评级，公司处于快速发展阶 段，具备高成长性，极兔速递2025年第四季度业务量达84.6亿票，同比增长14.5%。公司在东南亚市场 表现突出，件量同比增长73.6%；新市场增速环比提升，发展加速；中国市场竞争中转向高质量发展。 整体来看，公司在海外市场依托规模效应和服务优势持续高增长，并将国内成熟运营经验输出至全球网 络。 财通证券主要观点如下： 近期事件 2026年1月7日，极兔速递披露2025Q4经营数据。2025Q4，公司实现业务量84.6亿票，同比+14.5%，其 中公司在东南亚/中国/新市场分别完成24.4/58.9/1.3亿票。 (1)东南亚市场：2025Q4，公司在东南亚件量同比增长73.6%，在高基数的背景下继续保持高增长。(2) 新市场：新市场电商渗透率较低，人均包裹量潜力大，随着公司网络服务质量提高获取更多单量，公司 在新市场件量增长逐渐加速，2025Q4公司新市场件量同比增速环比2025Q3提高31.8pct。(3)中国市场： 中国快递行业件量增速逐步放缓，公司主动进行策略调整，加强网络建设，追求有质量的增长。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese express delivery industry has achieved a remarkable milestone, reaching a monthly average of 10 billion packages, significantly contributing to the global express delivery market [2][3]. Industry Overview - In 2024, China's express delivery volume is projected to reach 175.08 billion packages, accounting for 65% of the global total of approximately 267.9 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [2]. - The revenue from express delivery services in China is expected to hit 1.40335 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [2]. - As of October 11, 2025, the total express delivery volume has already surpassed 150 billion packages, 37 days ahead of the previous year [2]. Growth Drivers - The growth of the express delivery industry is driven by three main factors: 1. The booming e-commerce ecosystem, with new business models such as live-streaming sales and community group buying expanding consumption from urban to rural areas [3]. 2. The extensive coverage of logistics infrastructure, with over 95% of administrative villages in China having express delivery services, particularly in central and western regions [3]. 3. Technological advancements leading to efficiency improvements, including automated sorting centers and smart delivery solutions, which have reduced costs per package [4]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the Chinese express delivery market include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, each excelling in various segments such as e-commerce and business express services [4]. - In the high-end express market, SF Express and EMS have maintained leadership due to their established market presence and quality service [5]. Consumer Trends - There is a growing demand for diverse express delivery services, with consumers seeking not only speed but also quality. Companies are encouraged to enhance service quality, including packaging and customer service, to meet these evolving consumer expectations [6].

Core Insights - The express delivery business in China experienced a volume of 162.68 billion pieces from January to October 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.1% [1] - In October 2025, the postal industry generated a revenue of 156.42 billion yuan, marking a 7.9% increase compared to the same month last year, with express delivery revenue reaching 131.67 billion yuan, up by 4.7% [1] Revenue and Volume Summary - From January to October, the total revenue of the postal industry reached 1.47005 trillion yuan, a 7.7% increase year-on-year, while express delivery revenue totaled 1.21741 trillion yuan, growing by 8.5% [1][8] - The total volume of postal delivery services for the same period was 177.25 billion pieces, up 14.0% year-on-year, with express delivery volume at 162.68 billion pieces, increasing by 16.1% [1][8] Segment Analysis - In the first ten months, the volume of same-city express deliveries was 13.14 billion pieces (3.0% growth), while intercity express deliveries reached 146.12 billion pieces (17.6% growth), and international/Hong Kong, Macau, and Taiwan express deliveries totaled 3.41 billion pieces (12.2% growth) [1][3] - The share of same-city express deliveries decreased by 1.0 percentage points, while intercity deliveries increased by 1.1 percentage points compared to the previous year [3] Regional Performance - The revenue distribution for express delivery in the eastern, central, and western regions was 73.8%, 15.6%, and 10.6%, respectively, with volume shares of 70.9%, 19.7%, and 9.4% [5] - The eastern region saw a decline in both revenue and volume shares, while the central and western regions experienced increases [5] Market Concentration - The concentration index (CR8) for express and parcel service brands was 87.0, showing a slight increase of 0.1 from the previous month [7] City-Level Insights - The top cities by express delivery revenue included Shanghai (220.47 billion yuan), Guangzhou (75.30 billion yuan), and Shenzhen (51.98 billion yuan) [10] - The top cities by express processing volume were Guangzhou (1,827,247.4 thousand pieces) and Jinhua (1,750,532.1 thousand pieces) [11]

Core Insights - The express delivery industry in China has experienced a significant growth, with a year-on-year increase of 17.8% in express business volume during the first eight months of the year [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Growth - The total volume of postal delivery services in China reached 1,399.2 billion pieces, with express delivery accounting for 1,282 billion pieces [3]. - The express delivery market is steadily expanding, indicating a robust growth trajectory [1]. Group 2: Operational Improvements - Companies in the express delivery sector have implemented technologies such as unmanned vehicles and automated sorting machines to reduce sorting and delivery times, achieving faster and more efficient end delivery [5]. - The industry has enhanced its service capabilities by deploying specialized collection teams for modern agriculture, improving sorting and packaging services [7]. Group 3: Economic Impact - The optimization of service processes and the integration of data and technology have improved market responsiveness, aiding production companies in reducing costs and increasing efficiency [9]. - The rapid growth of the express market and its enhanced capacity are closely linked to the integration with upstream and downstream industries, supporting stable economic operations [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Jitu Express (01519.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported an adjusted net profit of $156 million for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 147%, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential in three key markets [1] - The revenue for H1 2025 reached $5.5 billion, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, with express service revenue contributing $5.3 billion, up 12.7% [1] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on leveraging its experience in China to enhance its competitive advantage in Southeast Asia, where it achieved a 58% year-on-year increase in parcel volume [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - **Overall Financial Data**: - H1 2025 revenue: $5.5 billion, up 13.1% YoY - Adjusted net profit: $156 million, up 147% YoY - Adjusted EBITDA: $440 million, up 24.2% YoY - Adjusted EBIT: $200 million, up 65.4% YoY [1] - **Regional Performance**: - **Southeast Asia**: - Parcel volume: 3.23 billion, up 58% YoY - Market share: 32.8%, up 5.4 percentage points - Single ticket revenue: $0.61, down $0.13 - Single ticket cost: $0.50, down $0.10 [2] - **China**: - Parcel volume: 10.6 billion, up 20% YoY - Market share: 11.1%, up 0.1 percentage points - Single ticket revenue: $0.30, down $0.04 - Single ticket cost: $0.28, down $0.04 [2] - **New Markets**: - Parcel volume: 1.7 billion, up 22% YoY - Market share: 6.2%, up 0.1 percentage points - Single ticket revenue: $2.18, up $0.04 - Single ticket cost: $1.92, up $0.04 [3] Financial Forecasts - **Revenue Projections**: - 2024A: $10.26 billion - 2025E: $12.18 billion - 2026E: $14.34 billion - 2027E: $16.64 billion [4] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2024A: $101 million - 2025E: $330 million - 2026E: $586 million - 2027E: $830 million [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: $0.01 - 2025E: $0.04 - 2026E: $0.07 - 2027E: $0.09 [4] Valuation - The target price is set at HKD 13.49, with a current price of HKD 10.40, indicating a potential upside of 30% [4]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jitu (2025) Company Overview - **Company**: Jitu - **Period**: First half of 2025 - **Total Package Volume**: 14 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2][5] Key Financial Metrics - **Adjusted EBIT**: $235 million, a year-on-year increase of 74%, accounting for 120% of the group's total [2][6] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: $156 million, a year-on-year increase of 147% [4] - **Group Revenue**: $1.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% [5] - **Adjusted EBIT for China**: $13 million, marginal profit [2][6] - **Losses in New Markets**: $18 million, with cross-border and undistributed losses totaling $34 million [2][6] Regional Performance Southeast Asia - **Package Volume Growth**: 58% in the first half of 2025 [7] - **Market Share Increase**: Up 5.4 percentage points to 32.8% [7] - **Single Package Revenue**: Decreased by $0.13 to $0.61 [7] - **Single Package Cost**: Decreased by $0.10, leading to a decline in gross margin by $0.03 [7] - **Adjusted EBIT Guidance for 2025**: Increased from $410 million to $520 million [13] China - **Market Position**: Ranked fifth in market share [8] - **Package Volume Growth**: 20%, exceeding industry average [8] - **Competitive Landscape**: Notable declines among competitors, with Yunda down 66% year-on-year [8] - **Profitability Outlook**: Expected significant downward adjustment in profit guidance due to competitive pressures [14] New Markets - **First Half EBITDA**: Achieved $1.6 million profit [9] - **Package Volume Growth**: 22% [9] - **Single Package Revenue**: $2.18 [9] - **Adjusted EBIT Guidance for New Markets**: Expected to be $0.09 per package in the second half, with an annual EBIT profit of approximately $3.9 million [16][17] Future Outlook - **Overall Adjusted Net Profit Guidance for 2025**: $440 million, with expectations for Southeast Asia and new markets remaining strong despite challenges in China [20] - **2026 Projections**: Southeast Asia expected to generate $700 million in net profit, with new markets contributing $50-60 million [21][22] - **Valuation Potential**: Overall valuation could reach 140 billion RMB, indicating significant growth potential compared to the current market cap of over 80 billion RMB [22] Additional Insights - **Strategic Pricing Adjustments**: Implemented in Southeast Asia to expand market share [2][7] - **Investment Sentiment**: Despite challenges in the Chinese market, the strong performance in Southeast Asia and new markets supports a bullish investment outlook [23]