Core Insights - The Chinese express delivery industry has achieved a remarkable milestone, reaching a monthly average of 10 billion packages, significantly contributing to the global express delivery market [2][3]. Industry Overview - In 2024, China's express delivery volume is projected to reach 175.08 billion packages, accounting for 65% of the global total of approximately 267.9 billion packages, with a year-on-year growth of 21.5% [2]. - The revenue from express delivery services in China is expected to hit 1.40335 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 13.8% [2]. - As of October 11, 2025, the total express delivery volume has already surpassed 150 billion packages, 37 days ahead of the previous year [2]. Growth Drivers - The growth of the express delivery industry is driven by three main factors: 1. The booming e-commerce ecosystem, with new business models such as live-streaming sales and community group buying expanding consumption from urban to rural areas [3]. 2. The extensive coverage of logistics infrastructure, with over 95% of administrative villages in China having express delivery services, particularly in central and western regions [3]. 3. Technological advancements leading to efficiency improvements, including automated sorting centers and smart delivery solutions, which have reduced costs per package [4]. Competitive Landscape - Major players in the Chinese express delivery market include SF Express, ZTO Express, YTO Express, and Yunda Express, each excelling in various segments such as e-commerce and business express services [4]. - In the high-end express market, SF Express and EMS have maintained leadership due to their established market presence and quality service [5]. Consumer Trends - There is a growing demand for diverse express delivery services, with consumers seeking not only speed but also quality. Companies are encouraged to enhance service quality, including packaging and customer service, to meet these evolving consumer expectations [6].

前十个月我国快递业务量1626.8亿件 同比增长16.1% 中新网11月18日电 据国家邮政局微信公众号消息，国家邮政局18日公布2025年10月份邮政行业运行情 况。 10月份，邮政行业业务收入(不包括邮政储蓄银行直接营业收入)完成1564.2亿元，同比增长7.9%。其 中，快递业务收入完成1316.7亿元，同比增长4.7%。 10月份，邮政行业寄递业务量完成189.9亿件，同比增长6.5%。其中，快递业务量完成176.0亿件，同比 增长7.9%。 1—10月，邮政行业业务收入累计完成14700.5亿元，同比增长7.7%。其中，快递业务收入累计完成 12174.1亿元，同比增长8.5%。 1—10月，邮政行业寄递业务量累计完成1772.5亿件，同比增长14.0%。其中，快递业务量累计完成 1626.8亿件，同比增长16.1%。 1—10月，同城快递业务量累计完成131.4亿件，同比增长3.0%；异地快递业务量累计完成1461.2亿件， 同比增长17.6%；国际/港澳台快递业务量累计完成34.1亿件，同比增长12.2%。 图片来源：国家邮政局微信公众号 1—10月，同城、异地、国际/港澳台快递业务量分别占全部 ...

此外，快递行业还深入服务现代农业，随着水果、海鲜菌菇等特色农产品寄递量增长。快递企业安排专业揽收团队驻点服务，增 强快速分拣、专业包装等一站式服务能力。加大航空、高铁等运力资源投入，保障地方特色产品鲜达全国。 今年以来，我国快递企业通过增加无人车运输、配置自动分拣机等方式，缩短分拣派送时间，实现末端快速、高效配送。 央视网消息：记者从国家邮政局了解到，前8个月我国快递业务量同比增长17.8%。快递业市场规模稳步拓展，综合运能不断提 高。 国家邮政局最新数据显示，前8个月，我国邮政行业寄递业务量累计完成1399.2亿件。其中，快递业务量累计完成1282亿件，同 比增长17.8%。 专家表示，行业通过优化服务流程，加强数据和技术赋能，提升市场响应速度，助力生产企业降本增效。快递市场规模快速增 长，综合运能不断提高，与上下游产业紧密融合，有力支撑经济平稳运行。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for Jitu Express (01519.HK) [1] Core Views - The company reported an adjusted net profit of $156 million for H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 147%, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential in three key markets [1] - The revenue for H1 2025 reached $5.5 billion, a 13.1% increase year-on-year, with express service revenue contributing $5.3 billion, up 12.7% [1] - The report highlights the company's strategic focus on leveraging its experience in China to enhance its competitive advantage in Southeast Asia, where it achieved a 58% year-on-year increase in parcel volume [2][3] Financial Performance Summary - **Overall Financial Data**: - H1 2025 revenue: $5.5 billion, up 13.1% YoY - Adjusted net profit: $156 million, up 147% YoY - Adjusted EBITDA: $440 million, up 24.2% YoY - Adjusted EBIT: $200 million, up 65.4% YoY [1] - **Regional Performance**: - **Southeast Asia**: - Parcel volume: 3.23 billion, up 58% YoY - Market share: 32.8%, up 5.4 percentage points - Single ticket revenue: $0.61, down $0.13 - Single ticket cost: $0.50, down $0.10 [2] - **China**: - Parcel volume: 10.6 billion, up 20% YoY - Market share: 11.1%, up 0.1 percentage points - Single ticket revenue: $0.30, down $0.04 - Single ticket cost: $0.28, down $0.04 [2] - **New Markets**: - Parcel volume: 1.7 billion, up 22% YoY - Market share: 6.2%, up 0.1 percentage points - Single ticket revenue: $2.18, up $0.04 - Single ticket cost: $1.92, up $0.04 [3] Financial Forecasts - **Revenue Projections**: - 2024A: $10.26 billion - 2025E: $12.18 billion - 2026E: $14.34 billion - 2027E: $16.64 billion [4] - **Net Profit Projections**: - 2024A: $101 million - 2025E: $330 million - 2026E: $586 million - 2027E: $830 million [4] - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024A: $0.01 - 2025E: $0.04 - 2026E: $0.07 - 2027E: $0.09 [4] Valuation - The target price is set at HKD 13.49, with a current price of HKD 10.40, indicating a potential upside of 30% [4]

Summary of the Conference Call for Jitu (2025) Company Overview - **Company**: Jitu - **Period**: First half of 2025 - **Total Package Volume**: 14 billion packages, a year-on-year increase of 27% [2][5] Key Financial Metrics - **Adjusted EBIT**: $235 million, a year-on-year increase of 74%, accounting for 120% of the group's total [2][6] - **Adjusted Net Profit**: $156 million, a year-on-year increase of 147% [4] - **Group Revenue**: $1.55 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13% [5] - **Adjusted EBIT for China**: $13 million, marginal profit [2][6] - **Losses in New Markets**: $18 million, with cross-border and undistributed losses totaling $34 million [2][6] Regional Performance Southeast Asia - **Package Volume Growth**: 58% in the first half of 2025 [7] - **Market Share Increase**: Up 5.4 percentage points to 32.8% [7] - **Single Package Revenue**: Decreased by $0.13 to $0.61 [7] - **Single Package Cost**: Decreased by $0.10, leading to a decline in gross margin by $0.03 [7] - **Adjusted EBIT Guidance for 2025**: Increased from $410 million to $520 million [13] China - **Market Position**: Ranked fifth in market share [8] - **Package Volume Growth**: 20%, exceeding industry average [8] - **Competitive Landscape**: Notable declines among competitors, with Yunda down 66% year-on-year [8] - **Profitability Outlook**: Expected significant downward adjustment in profit guidance due to competitive pressures [14] New Markets - **First Half EBITDA**: Achieved $1.6 million profit [9] - **Package Volume Growth**: 22% [9] - **Single Package Revenue**: $2.18 [9] - **Adjusted EBIT Guidance for New Markets**: Expected to be $0.09 per package in the second half, with an annual EBIT profit of approximately $3.9 million [16][17] Future Outlook - **Overall Adjusted Net Profit Guidance for 2025**: $440 million, with expectations for Southeast Asia and new markets remaining strong despite challenges in China [20] - **2026 Projections**: Southeast Asia expected to generate $700 million in net profit, with new markets contributing $50-60 million [21][22] - **Valuation Potential**: Overall valuation could reach 140 billion RMB, indicating significant growth potential compared to the current market cap of over 80 billion RMB [22] Additional Insights - **Strategic Pricing Adjustments**: Implemented in Southeast Asia to expand market share [2][7] - **Investment Sentiment**: Despite challenges in the Chinese market, the strong performance in Southeast Asia and new markets supports a bullish investment outlook [23]